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Empirical Test of Fama and French Three-Factor Model in the Egyptian Stock Exchange Fama和French三因素模型在埃及证券交易所的实证检验
Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2020-2-1
M. Abd-Alla, M. Sobh
We test the empirical validity of the three-factor model of Fama and French in the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) using monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the EGX from January 2014 to December 2018. Our findings do not support Fama and French three-factor model, where the coefficient of the beta was insignificant. The “SBM” coefficient and the “HML” coefficient were equal to zero and insignificant, which confirms the absence of the small firm effect and book-to-market ratio effect in the market. We conclude that there is no relation between expected return and Fama-French risk factors.
我们使用2014年1月至2018年12月在埃及证券交易所(EGX)上市的50只股票的月度超额股票回报率,检验了Fama和French三因素模型在埃及证券交易中的实证有效性。我们的研究结果不支持Fama和French三因素模型,其中贝塔系数不显著。“SBM”系数和“HML”系数等于零且不显著,这证实了市场中不存在小企业效应和账面市值比效应。我们得出的结论是,预期回报与法玛-弗伦奇风险因素之间没有关系。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Herding on the Risk Pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange 羊群效应对埃及证券交易所风险定价的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2020-2-2
M. Abd-Alla, M. Sobh
We test the impact of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) by adding an additional risk factor reflecting herding behaviour to the Fama and French three-factor model. We construct a portfolio to mimic an additional risk factor related to herding behaviour, in addition to the original risk factors in the Fama and French three-factor model. The three-factor model will be tested in its original form and re-tested after adding the herding behaviour factor. The study is based on Hwang and Salmon methodology, in which the state space approach based on Kaman’s filter was used to measure herding behaviour. We used monthly excess stock returns of 50 stocks listed on the EGX from January 2014 to December 2018. The results do not support Fama and French model before and after adding the herding behaviour factor, therefore, there is no effect of herding behaviour on the risk pricing in the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
我们通过在Fama和French三因素模型中添加一个反映羊群行为的额外风险因素,来测试羊群行为对埃及证券交易所(EGX)风险定价的影响。除了Fama和French三因素模型中的原始风险因素外,我们构建了一个投资组合来模拟与羊群行为相关的额外风险因素。三因素模型将以其原始形式进行测试,并在添加羊群行为因素后重新测试。该研究基于Hwang和Salmon方法,其中基于Kaman滤波器的状态空间方法用于测量羊群行为。我们使用了2014年1月至2018年12月在EGX上市的50只股票的月度超额股票回报率。结果不支持Fama和French模型在添加羊群行为因子前后的结果,因此,羊群行为对埃及证券交易所的风险定价没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Determination and Verification of the Key Assessment Indicators for the Insurance Market by Applying the Decomposition Multi-attribute Methods and Regression Analysis 基于分解多属性法和回归分析的保险市场关键评价指标确定与验证
Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.5817/fai2019-1-1
Martina Borovcová, Adéla Špačková
The aim of the article is to determine and verify the key assessment indicators for the insurance market by applying the decomposition multi-attribute methods and regression analysis. The assessed specific indicators are qualitative indicators (insurance penetration, claim ratio) and quantitative indicators (gross premium, insurance benefit, number of insurance contracts, number of settled insurance claims, number of employees, number of commercial insurance companies, concentration of the insurance market, and more). The decomposition multi-criteria AHP method (analytic hierarchy process) and ANP method (analytic network process) based on the Saaty pair comparison approach are described, including the computation procedure. The described methods are then applied to determine the preferences of the indicators for the insurance market. Subsequently, a particular regression model is created. Our findings reveal the resulting preferences of individual indicators of the insurance market evaluation and key assessment indicators.
本文的目的是运用分解多属性方法和回归分析来确定和验证保险市场的关键评估指标。考核的具体指标有定性指标(保险深度、理赔比例)和定量指标(总保费、保险收益、保险合同数量、保险理赔结算数量、从业人员数量、商业保险公司数量、保险市场集中度等)。介绍了基于Saaty对比较法的多准则分解AHP法和ANP法,并给出了计算过程。然后应用所描述的方法来确定保险市场指标的偏好。随后,创建一个特定的回归模型。我们的研究结果揭示了对保险市场评估的个别指标和关键评估指标的偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the Emotional Bondage of Serial Fans and Business Decisions on Series Extension in the Context of Impact on the Stock Price of the Providers 在影响供应商股价的背景下,分析系列粉丝的情感束缚与系列扩展的商业决策
Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.5817/fai2019-1-2
Dennis J. Schmidt, Alexander Zureck, Stefanie Gradetzki, Gennadij Seel
The desire of audiences to consume content in a series format, independent of time and place has increased in recent years. Technological advancement has helped this trend progress. In this paper, series are considered as goods whose sales are linked to the degree of viewers’ attention. Thus, the good series operate on two interconnected levels, an economic and an emotional. The decision to invest in the production of another season of a series is intended to increase the number of subscriptions and the associated revenues. Capital market participants are influenced by various emotional biases when making investment decisions under uncertainty. In the context of an event study, it is examined whether announcements of season extensions have a significant influence on the share price of the respective provider. The results show that investors react with a changed investment behavior. Furthermore, findings from the film industry are transferred to series production.
近年来,观众希望以独立于时间和地点的系列形式消费内容的愿望有所增加。技术进步促进了这一趋势的发展。在本文中,连续剧被看作是一种商品,其销量与观众的关注程度有关。因此,优秀的系列在两个相互关联的层面上运作,一个是经济层面,一个是情感层面。投资制作另一季剧集的决定是为了增加订阅数量和相关收入。资本市场参与者在不确定性条件下进行投资决策时,会受到各种情绪偏差的影响。在事件研究的背景下,研究了季节延长的公告是否对各自提供商的股价产生重大影响。结果表明,投资者的投资行为发生了变化。此外,电影行业的发现被转移到系列制作中。
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引用次数: 2
Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Europe: Detection of Extreme Risk Spillover 欧洲的石油价格和股票市场:极端风险溢出的检测
Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.5817/fai2019-1-3
Blanka Łęt
The goal of this paper is to check existence of Granger causality in risk between eleven European stock markets and crude oil market. We analyze bidirectional instantaneous and delayed Granger causality in tails test results, i.e. whether occurrence of the extreme returns on the crude oil market precede similar events on the main European stock markets and vice versa. Using Brent futures prices and main stock indices in Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom), we apply testing procedure developed by Candelon and Tokpavi (2016). The main conclusion is that in the vast majority of cases instantaneous causality in tails was symmetrical. We also found that more long-lived reaction appeared as a result to the negative news from the oil market and from the stock markets.
本文的目的是检验欧洲11个股票市场和原油市场之间的风险存在Granger因果关系。我们分析了尾部检验结果中的双向瞬时和延迟格兰杰因果关系,即原油市场上的极端回报是否先于欧洲主要股市上的类似事件发生,反之亦然。利用布伦特原油期货价格和欧洲主要股指(比利时、法国、德国、希腊、意大利、荷兰、挪威、波兰、西班牙、瑞典和英国),我们应用了Candelon和Tokpavi(2016)开发的测试程序。主要结论是,在绝大多数情况下,尾部的瞬时因果关系是对称的。我们还发现,对来自石油市场和股票市场的负面消息出现了更长期的反应。
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引用次数: 1
The Use of Qualitative Indicators in Banking Rating Systems 定性指标在银行评级系统中的应用
Pub Date : 2019-02-25 DOI: 10.5817/fai2018-2-2
Martin Svítil
The article compares internal rating systems of three banks from the German-speaking region, continuing with last year's research. In this paper a detailed analysis of qualitative indicators (soft - facts) is made. These qualitative indicators, as one of the two main components of banking rating systems have the wage of between 30% and 50% of the overall rating score. This makes this part of rating certainly important enough to be further researched.  The research is focused on the rating of business entities, more precisely the corporate, (especially limited liability companies or joint-stock companies). It does not deal with the rating of natural persons or non-profit organizations, municipalities etc. The procedure of collecting empirical data as well as data from relevant literature, their assessment according to the criteria of verifiability and relevance and the application of the induction method was used and a generalization of conclusions was subsequently made. The goal of this research was to find out if the structure of used qualitative factors (soft- facts) is similar or even the same across the rating systems included in the comparison and what weights of individual factors are used. The result of the research shows that two categories of qualitative indicators (soft - facts) are present in all considered rating systems: (i) quality of company’s management and / or strategy and (ii) market on which the bank client operates. (iii) Accounting or related indicators like information system or audit quality also play a significant role in rating systems. On the other hand, the use of the factor (iv) relationship with the bank (or similar) is quite different across the rating systems included in the research. The number and structure of guidance questions that help risk-management analysts determine indicator values also differ. In one case, there is an extensive catalog of questions with a standardized set of responses. In other cases, the number of questions is lower and each one has its specific variation of the predefined answers the analyst selects from.
这篇文章比较了来自德语区的三家银行的内部评级系统,并延续了去年的研究。本文对定性指标(软事实)进行了详细的分析。这些定性指标作为银行评级系统的两个主要组成部分之一,其工资在整体评级得分的30%至50%之间。这使得评级的这一部分当然足够重要,需要进一步研究。研究的重点是对商业实体的评级,更准确地说是对公司的评级(尤其是有限责任公司或股份制公司)。它不涉及对自然人或非营利组织、市政当局等的评级。使用了收集经验数据以及相关文献数据的程序,根据可验证性和相关性标准对其进行评估,并应用了归纳法,随后对结论进行了概括。这项研究的目的是找出所使用的定性因素(软事实)的结构在包括在比较中的评级系统中是否相似甚至相同,以及使用了哪些单独因素的权重。研究结果表明,在所有考虑的评级系统中都存在两类定性指标(软事实):(i)公司管理和/或战略的质量;(ii)银行客户经营的市场。(iii)会计或信息系统或审计质量等相关指标在评级系统中也发挥着重要作用。另一方面,因子(iv)与银行(或类似)关系的使用在研究中包括的评级系统中有很大不同。帮助风险管理分析师确定指标值的指导问题的数量和结构也有所不同。在一个案例中,有一个广泛的问题目录和一组标准化的回答。在其他情况下,问题的数量较低,并且每个问题都有分析师从中选择的预定义答案的特定变体。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Property Insurance Demand in Slovak Republic: Challenges and Obstacles 斯洛伐克共和国财产保险需求的决定因素:挑战与障碍
Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2018-2-1
Tomáš Ondruška, Zuzana Brokesová, E. Pastoráková
In the Slovak Republic, non-life insurance consumption is significantlylower compared to Western European countries. The paper tests various personal, demographic and economic factors and their impact on the individual property insurance demand in the Slovak Republic. Using survey data, we identified the following as statistically significant determinants of property insurance demand: gender, age, marital status, propensity to save, level of income, being a head of household. Our results can help insurers to better understand their potential consumers and to improve their acquisition and segmentation techniques. Our findings are important, especially, in times after launching a new tax on non-life insurance premiums, as individuals in Slovakia are very sensitive to the premium and often fail to buy adequate coverage in property insurance.
与西欧国家相比,斯洛伐克共和国的非寿险消费明显较低。本文测试了各种个人、人口和经济因素及其对斯洛伐克共和国个人财产保险需求的影响。利用调查数据,我们确定了以下因素是财产保险需求的统计显著决定因素:性别,年龄,婚姻状况,储蓄倾向,收入水平,是否是一家之主。我们的研究结果可以帮助保险公司更好地了解他们的潜在消费者,并改进他们的获取和细分技术。我们的研究结果很重要,特别是在对非寿险保费征收新税之后,因为斯洛伐克的个人对保费非常敏感,往往无法购买足够的财产保险。
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引用次数: 0
Profitability of Sector Mutual Funds and ETFs During Market Development and Length of Investment Horizon 行业共同基金和ETF在市场发展过程中的盈利能力和投资期限
Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2018-2-3
M. Širůček, Jan Vystoupil, Petr Strejček
This paper focuses on the profitability of investments into IT, finance, healthcare and consumer goods oriented active and passive mutual funds and ETFs and their profit/loss in different market situations (growing, stagnant and decreasing markets).The aim of the paper is to set recommendations for investors as regards which instrument (active or passive mutual fund or ETFs) brings higher return or lower loss over the time and market development and if investors can expect different results based on the sector orientation, which sector is more sensitive to bullish or bearish trends. Our results show that neither ETF nor passive mutual funds were able to beat the market, as the sector index brings better results than these investments in all situations. Within bearish trend, all sector ETFs and passive mutual funds bring the same results as sector index, only active managed mutual funds bring better results. The lowest loss during this period was achieved by active managed mutual funds focusing on healthcare. Bullish and stagnant markets bring quite the same results, but passive funds and ETF are more profitable than active mutual funds in growing markets.
本文重点研究IT、金融、金融和金融领域投资的盈利能力,以医疗保健和消费品为导向的主动和被动共同基金和ETF及其在不同市场情况下的损益(增长、停滞和下降的市场)。本文的目的是为投资者提供建议,说明随着时间和市场发展,哪种工具(主动或被动共同基金或ETF)带来更高的回报或更低的损失,以及投资者是否可以根据行业方向预期不同的结果,哪个行业对看涨或看跌趋势更敏感。我们的结果表明,ETF和被动共同基金都无法击败市场,因为在所有情况下,行业指数都比这些投资带来更好的结果。在看跌趋势中,所有板块ETF和被动共同基金带来的结果与板块指数相同,只有主动管理的共同基金带来更好的结果。这一时期亏损最低的是专注于医疗保健的积极管理的共同基金。牛市和停滞的市场带来了完全相同的结果,但在不断增长的市场中,被动基金和ETF比主动共同基金更有利可图。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Leverage on Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing Firms 杠杆对企业现金持有量的影响:来自印尼制造业企业的证据
Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2018-2-4
Anggita Langgeng Wijaya, N. Bandi
The objective of this research is to test the impact of leverage on corporate cash holdings for sample of manufacturing companies enlisted on the Indonesian Stock Exchange over the period 2006-2007. Population of this research is all of manufacturing companies on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The sampling method is purposive. The study hypothesis was tested using multiple regressions. The results show that leverage has a negative influence on corporate cash holdings. Indonesian manufacturing firms with high leverage can hold cash in small amounts because debt is a substitute for corporate cash holdings.
本研究的目的是测试杠杆对企业现金持有量的影响,以2006-2007年期间在印尼证券交易所上市的制造业公司为样本。本研究对象为印尼证券交易所上市的所有制造业公司。抽样方法是有目的的。采用多元回归对研究假设进行检验。结果表明,杠杆对企业现金持有量有负向影响。杠杆率高的印尼制造企业可以持有少量现金,因为债务是企业现金持有量的替代品。
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引用次数: 1
Empirical Testing of the Response of Czech Stock Market to Downgrades of Greek Credit Rating in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 有效市场假说下捷克股市对希腊信用评级下调反应的实证检验
Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.5817/FAI2018-1-4
P. Šeda, J. A. Río, María de los Baños García-Moreno García
Empirical testing of the linkages between macroeconomic news and asset price movements in terms of response to released macroeconomic information have been a subject of many investigations using different testing methods. The objective of this paper is to study the impact of announcements of Greek credit rating downgrades on the prices of the most liquid assets quoted in the Czech stock market. This issue is tightly related to semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, which is one of possible analytical approaches when analyzing behaviour of assets in financial markets. The reaction of the Czech stock market is assessed in relation to seven announcements of Moody´s rating agency regarding changes of credit rating of Greek government bonds in the period 2009–2012. For the purpose of this paper, the event study methodology is applied. The basic idea of this statistical method is to determine values of abnormal returns, which can be defined as a difference between actual and equilibrium returns. In order to calculate equilibrium returns, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used. The differences between actual and equilibrium returns are then verified with a help of selected nonparametric statistical tests. Namely, the exact sign test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are utilized. Based on results of nonparametric statistical tests, the null hypothesis of information efficiency of the Czech stock market is conclusively rejected.
根据对发布的宏观经济信息的反应,对宏观经济新闻与资产价格变动之间的联系进行实证检验,一直是使用不同测试方法进行许多调查的主题。本文的目的是研究希腊信用评级下调公告对捷克股票市场最具流动性资产报价的影响。这个问题与有效市场假说的半强形式密切相关,有效市场假说是分析金融市场中资产行为的一种可能的分析方法。根据穆迪评级机构在2009-2012年期间关于希腊政府债券信用评级变化的七次公告,评估捷克股票市场的反应。本文采用了事件研究的方法。这种统计方法的基本思想是确定异常收益的值,异常收益可以定义为实际收益与均衡收益之间的差值。为了计算均衡收益,使用了资本资产定价模型(CAPM)。实际收益和均衡收益之间的差异,然后通过选择的非参数统计检验进行验证。即使用精确符号检验和Wilcoxon符号秩检验。基于非参数统计检验的结果,最终否定了捷克股票市场信息效率的零假设。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Financial Assets and Investing
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