The importance of credit risk management is well known and was deeply investigated by the banking industry. There is a pressure on financial institutions to still improve their credit risk management systems, so the credit risk of a bank is an unflagging object of discussion. The aim of this article to compare the predicting abilities of several bankruptcy models to the SME segment in the Czech Republic and its subsegments - medium sized, small and micro enterprises. We have focused on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) considering their fundamental role played in the Czech economy and the considerable attention placed on SMEs. We have chosen popular bankruptcy models that are often applied, namely the Altman Z-score, Altman model developed especially for SMEs in 2007, the Ohlson O-score, the Zmijewski’s model, the Taffler’s model, and the IN05 model. The basic form of the models was used as proposed by their authors. The results were compared using the contingency table and ROC curve. We have found that the best prediction models are Zmijewski´s and Ohlson´s models which use probit and logit methodologies and according to our analysis, their prediction ability is better than that of models based on discriminant analysis. Surprisingly, model IN05 designed for Czech companies provides average results only. One of the worst performing models is Altman 2007, which was created specifically for SMEs, but according to our analysis it only provides subordinates results.
{"title":"Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Models in Relation to SME Segment","authors":"T. Plíhal, Martina Sponerová, M. Sponer","doi":"10.5817/FAI2018-1-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2018-1-3","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of credit risk management is well known and was deeply investigated by the banking industry. There is a pressure on financial institutions to still improve their credit risk management systems, so the credit risk of a bank is an unflagging object of discussion. The aim of this article to compare the predicting abilities of several bankruptcy models to the SME segment in the Czech Republic and its subsegments - medium sized, small and micro enterprises. We have focused on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) considering their fundamental role played in the Czech economy and the considerable attention placed on SMEs. We have chosen popular bankruptcy models that are often applied, namely the Altman Z-score, Altman model developed especially for SMEs in 2007, the Ohlson O-score, the Zmijewski’s model, the Taffler’s model, and the IN05 model. The basic form of the models was used as proposed by their authors. The results were compared using the contingency table and ROC curve. We have found that the best prediction models are Zmijewski´s and Ohlson´s models which use probit and logit methodologies and according to our analysis, their prediction ability is better than that of models based on discriminant analysis. Surprisingly, model IN05 designed for Czech companies provides average results only. One of the worst performing models is Altman 2007, which was created specifically for SMEs, but according to our analysis it only provides subordinates results.","PeriodicalId":30338,"journal":{"name":"Financial Assets and Investing","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42355614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main aims of this article are to verify whether rates of return might be determined by stock prices and to evaluate low price anomaly on the example of Warsaw Stock Exchange. The author states that cheap assets characterized by nominally lower prices are more attractive to buy and bring higher profits in comparison to assets described as expensive. In order to verify the hypothesis, database of 13789 quotations from 1.07.1999 to 30.12.2013 was created. The sample was divided into three groups – cheap, average, and expensive stocks. Finally, the statistical analysis was conducted using 2924 records including only cheap and expensive units. Statistical analysis confirms that low–priced assets generate higher profits and lower losses.
{"title":"Stock Prices and the Rate of Return Analysis: The Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange","authors":"M. Jasiniak","doi":"10.5817/FAI2018-1-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2018-1-2","url":null,"abstract":"The main aims of this article are to verify whether rates of return might be determined by stock prices and to evaluate low price anomaly on the example of Warsaw Stock Exchange. The author states that cheap assets characterized by nominally lower prices are more attractive to buy and bring higher profits in comparison to assets described as expensive. In order to verify the hypothesis, database of 13789 quotations from 1.07.1999 to 30.12.2013 was created. The sample was divided into three groups – cheap, average, and expensive stocks. Finally, the statistical analysis was conducted using 2924 records including only cheap and expensive units. Statistical analysis confirms that low–priced assets generate higher profits and lower losses.","PeriodicalId":30338,"journal":{"name":"Financial Assets and Investing","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46497743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between the real property prices in biggest Polish cities within VAR model framework. Both offer and transactional prices are used. Existing stock market, as well as primary market are analysed. The data are quarterly and taken from 17 biggest Polish cities. The analysed period is 2006-2015. Both VAR and VECM approaches were applied. Their limitations and possible predictions were discussed. A significant interaction between various regional real estate markets in Poland has been observed. However, the leading role of the capital city could not be confirmed by the methodology used.
{"title":"Causality in the Polish Housing Market: Evidence from Biggest Cities","authors":"Krysztof Drachal","doi":"10.5817/FAI2018-1-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2018-1-1","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between the real property prices in biggest Polish cities within VAR model framework. Both offer and transactional prices are used. Existing stock market, as well as primary market are analysed. The data are quarterly and taken from 17 biggest Polish cities. The analysed period is 2006-2015. Both VAR and VECM approaches were applied. Their limitations and possible predictions were discussed. A significant interaction between various regional real estate markets in Poland has been observed. However, the leading role of the capital city could not be confirmed by the methodology used.","PeriodicalId":30338,"journal":{"name":"Financial Assets and Investing","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47503424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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