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Analysis of a Dynamical Cournot Duopoly Game with Distributed Time Delay 一类具有分布时滞的动态古诺双寡头博弈分析
Pub Date : 2015-02-27 DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2015-0001
N. Sîrghi, M. Neamţu, Petru C. Străin
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyze the dynamic model of the Cournot duopoly game with bounded rationality associated to two firms. We consider the cost function of the first firm as nonlinear and for the second firm as linear. The players do not have a complete knowledge of the market and they follow a bounded rationality adjustment process based on the estimation of the marginal profit. Also, the distributed time delay is introduced, because the decisions at the current time depend on the average past decisions. The mathematical model is described by a distributed delay differential system with two nonlinear equations. The study for the local stability of the Nash equilibrium point is carried out in the case of two types of kernels: weak (exponential) and Dirac. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. The delays are considered as bifurcation parameters. In some conditions of the parameters of the model, we have proved that a family of periodic solutions bifurcates from the equilibrium point when the bifurcation parameter passes through a critical value. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of our results. Finally, conclusions and future researches are provided.
摘要本文的目的是分析两家公司有限理性古诺双寡头博弈的动态模型。我们认为第一家企业的成本函数是非线性的,而第二家企业的成本函数是线性的。参与者并不完全了解市场,他们遵循基于边际利润估计的有限理性调整过程。此外,由于当前时刻的决策依赖于过去决策的平均值,因此引入了分布式时间延迟。数学模型用两个非线性方程的分布时滞微分系统来描述。在弱(指数)核和狄拉克核两种情况下,研究了纳什平衡点的局部稳定性。平衡点的局部稳定性从稳定到不稳定的变化意味着Hopf分岔。将延迟视为分岔参数。在模型参数的某些条件下,我们证明了当分岔参数经过一个临界值时,一组周期解从平衡点分岔。最后进行了数值模拟,验证了结果的有效性。最后,对研究结论和未来研究方向进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
Social Media in Banking. A Managerial Perception from Mexico 银行业中的社交媒体。来自墨西哥的管理观念
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2015-0009
Doina Danaiata, Camelia Margea, Kristine Kirakosyan, Ana-Maria Negovan
Abstract Nowadays social media has a radical impact on the business world, becoming a great customer service tool across many industries. And banking is no exception. Thus, banks managers need to identify ways to make profitable use of the social media. By accepting the benefits and developing their presence in social media, banks will be closer to customers. The objective of our research is to study social media usage in the banking industry and to obtain a managerial view concerning barriers and challenges in the social media implementation process. From the research of the literature in the field, we observed that Social media was studied a lot from the customers’ point of view, but there are not many studies on social media from a managerial point of view. This article presents a part of our research results regarding social media usage in banking in different regions of the world, specifically, the Mexican banking sector. We conducted a qualitative research based on interviews carried on among 20 banks from Mexico. The goal was to see how the decision factors in banks perceive the social media usage for their institution and for the banking industry, in general. The study focuses on the barriers and challenges raised by the existence and usage of social media platforms. The findings revealed an important presence of the Mexican bank industry in social media areas, but with a lot of room for extending the banks’ presence in new Social Media platforms, and different degrees regarding the perception of barriers and challenges in adopting Social Media tools.
如今,社交媒体对商业世界产生了根本性的影响,成为许多行业的重要客户服务工具。银行业也不例外。因此,银行管理者需要找到利用社交媒体获利的方法。通过接受这些好处并发展他们在社交媒体上的存在,银行将更接近客户。我们研究的目的是研究社交媒体在银行业的使用情况,并获得有关社交媒体实施过程中的障碍和挑战的管理观点。通过对该领域文献的研究,我们发现从客户的角度对Social media进行了大量的研究,但是从管理的角度对Social media进行的研究并不多。本文介绍了我们关于世界不同地区(特别是墨西哥银行业)银行社交媒体使用情况的部分研究结果。我们在对墨西哥20家银行进行访谈的基础上进行了定性研究。目的是了解银行的决策因素如何看待其机构和整个银行业的社交媒体使用情况。该研究的重点是社交媒体平台的存在和使用所带来的障碍和挑战。调查结果显示,墨西哥银行业在社交媒体领域占有重要地位,但在新的社交媒体平台上,银行的存在还有很大的空间,在采用社交媒体工具的障碍和挑战方面,银行的存在程度不同。
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引用次数: 7
Some Properties of The Solution of The Ramsey Model 拉姆齐模型解的一些性质
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2015-0006
I. Viașu
Abstract The main aim of this paper is to improve some results obtained by Smith. We provide here a closed-form solution for the Ramsey model. We prove that if the inverse of the constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution is different to the elasticity of output with respect to physical capital, then the economy described by this model reaches the unique steady-state equilibrium, for any starting values of per-capita consumption. The advantage of the paper over the existing paper is that the arguments here are not local, that is, our hypotheses are most generally possible. Consequently, we can obtain almost all other results as particular cases of our solution. Our approach clarifies why different starting values of per-capita consumption generates the same steady-state equilibrium, but of different periods of time. We also clarifiy some of previous result obtained by other authors as for example Luca Guerrini.
摘要本文的主要目的是改进史密斯的一些结果。我们在这里为拉姆齐模型提供一个封闭形式的解决方案。我们证明,如果跨期替代的恒定弹性的逆与产出相对于实物资本的弹性不同,那么该模型所描述的经济对于任何人均消费的起始值都达到唯一的稳态平衡。与现有的论文相比,这篇论文的优势在于,这里的论点不是局部的,也就是说,我们的假设是最普遍可能的。因此,我们可以得到几乎所有其他结果作为我们解的特殊情况。我们的方法阐明了为什么不同的人均消费起始值会产生相同的稳态平衡,但时间不同。我们还澄清了其他作者如Luca Guerrini等先前获得的一些结果。
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引用次数: 2
Banking Integration and Efficiency Convergence in Baltic Countries in Post-Crisis Period 后危机时期波罗的海国家银行业一体化与效率趋同
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2015-0008
Mihăiță-Cosmin M. Popovici
Abstract We investigate banking efficiency in Baltic countries over the period 2007 - 2011 during one of the biggest financial crisis. The global economic crisis began in December 2007 with the loss of investor confidence in the U.S. securitized mortgages that led to a liquidity crisis that prompted a substantial injection of capital into financial markets by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Baltic countries joined the EU in 2004, during the largest wave of accession. Estonia is a member of the eurozone since 2011, Latvia since 2014 and Lithuania adopted euro in 2015. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a nonparametric method in operations research and economics for the estimation of production frontiers. It is used to empirically measure productive efficiency of decision-making units (or DMUs) for a sample of banks in a highly concentrated banking system. The aim of the paper is to show the evolution of the banking efficiency in the Baltic countries over the period 2007 - 2011 by using Malmquist index. Our goal is to highlight the evolution of efficiency and we want to answer the research question “How banking efficiency evolved after the financial crisis?” Results show a slight improvement in banking efficiency over the period 2010 - 2011 due to improved management of the inputs, but further research is needed to gain a clearer picture of the phenomenon.
我们研究了2007 - 2011年最大的金融危机期间波罗的海国家的银行效率。全球经济危机始于2007年12月,当时投资者对美国证券化抵押贷款失去信心,导致流动性危机,促使美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行向金融市场注入大量资金。波罗的海国家于2004年加入欧盟,这是欧盟加入人数最多的一次。爱沙尼亚于2011年加入欧元区,拉脱维亚于2014年加入,立陶宛于2015年加入欧元区。我们使用数据包络分析(DEA)——运筹学和经济学中的一种非参数方法来估计生产边界。它被用来实证地衡量决策单位(或dmu)在一个高度集中的银行体系中的银行样本的生产效率。本文的目的是通过使用马尔姆奎斯特指数来展示2007 - 2011年期间波罗的海国家银行效率的演变。我们的目标是强调效率的演变,我们想回答研究问题“金融危机后银行效率是如何演变的?”结果显示,2010年至2011年期间,由于投入管理的改善,银行效率略有提高,但需要进一步研究以获得更清晰的现象图景。
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引用次数: 2
Time Series Analysis About The Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate in Turkish Economy 土耳其经济对外贸易与汇率关系的时间序列分析
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2015-0007
Bilal Kargi
Abstract In this study, the relationship between the foreign trade data and the exchange rate is tested using the monthly data for the period of 1992:01-2014:01 in Turkish Economy. The devaluation of local currency is expected to increase export while decreasing import rates, thus it will close the foreign trade deficit, theoretically. However, this effect is observed in varying degrees in the on both short and long terms. One of the most fundamental problems of the Turkish Economy is the foreign trade deficit, beside the Turkish Lira is a quite frequently fluctuating currency. The relationship between the foreign trade data and the exchange rate is an important topic to examine when the dependence of export to import is especially considered. In this study, the longterm relation between these two main variables and their causality are examined as using the time series analysis. Therefore, the tested hypothesis will be „there is a long term relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign trade in Turkish Economy“. It is was empirically observed that this hypothesis is correct as a result of the tests. It is also observed that there is Granger causality from the exchange rate to the exports, imports and net foreign trade in addition to the fact that the long term relationship exists between the foreign trade and the rate of exchange.
本文采用土耳其经济1992:01-2014:01月月度数据,对外贸数据与汇率之间的关系进行检验。预计本币贬值将增加出口,同时降低进口比率,从而从理论上消除对外贸易逆差。然而,这种影响在短期和长期都有不同程度的观察。土耳其经济最根本的问题之一是对外贸易逆差,此外土耳其里拉是一种相当频繁波动的货币。特别是在考虑出口对进口的依赖时,外贸数据与汇率之间的关系是一个重要的研究课题。在本研究中,这两个主要变量之间的长期关系及其因果关系是用时间序列分析检验。因此,被检验的假设将是“土耳其经济中汇率与对外贸易之间存在长期关系”。实验结果表明,这一假设是正确的。研究还发现,汇率对出口、进口和净对外贸易均存在格兰杰因果关系,且对外贸易与汇率之间存在长期关系。
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引用次数: 10
Central Bank Independence, Transparency and Accountability Indexes: a Survey 中央银行独立性、透明度和问责指数:一项调查
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2014-0002
F. Dumiter
Abstract Recently, the remarkable trend upon central bank independence and the efficient monetary policy were seriously highlighted in the monetary economics field. Starting from 1990s’ central bank independence was at the core of policy making and central banking problems, because of the widespread economical, political, personal and budgetary autonomy of the central bank. Nowadays, we can observe an increasing trend upon central bank transparency, for evaluating more accurate the central bank’s performances by the wide public, mass-media and financial markets. Consequently, a central bank must encompass a high degree of accountability and responsibility, because of the final liability in case of failure. In this paper we present, analyze and assess the construction of the most important indices regarding central bank independence, transparency and accountability in a chronological manner, presenting also the advantages and disadvantages of these indices related to actual practices of central banks. Moreover, we analyze the analytical results of the empirical testing of these indices with a considerable impact upon the developed and developing country group. In regard with the empirical results of different authors, we suggest the importance and the necessity for constructing an aggregate index for measuring central bank independence, transparency and accountability, based on de jure stipulations and the actual practices of the central banks.
近年来,中央银行独立性和货币政策效益化的显著趋势在货币经济学领域备受关注。从20世纪90年代开始,由于中央银行广泛的经济、政治、个人和预算自主权,中央银行独立性成为政策制定和中央银行问题的核心。如今,我们可以观察到央行透明度不断提高的趋势,以便通过公众、大众媒体和金融市场更准确地评价央行的表现。因此,中央银行必须包含高度的问责制和责任,因为在失败的情况下负有最终责任。在本文中,我们按照时间顺序对中央银行独立性、透明度和问责制的最重要指标的构建进行了分析和评估,并结合中央银行的实际实践提出了这些指标的优缺点。此外,我们还分析了对发达国家和发展中国家集团具有相当影响的这些指数的实证检验的分析结果。根据不同作者的实证结果,我们提出了在法律规定和中央银行实际实践的基础上构建衡量中央银行独立性、透明度和问责性的综合指标的重要性和必要性。
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引用次数: 9
Application of the Varma Model for Sales Forecast: Case of Urmia Gray Cement Factory Varma模型在销售预测中的应用——以Urmia Gray水泥厂为例
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2014-0005
R. B. Khodaparasti, Samad Moslehi
Abstract To forecast sales as reliably as possible is one of the most important issues in every business trade. Therefore, in recent years different models have been suggested to deal with this issue. One efficient model is the time series model. This study applies a multivariate time series model to forecast Urmia Gray Cement Factory's sales volume and more importantly, to propose an effective model to be used by other cement factories to predict their sales volume. The two independent variables of costs and revenues and the dependent variable of sales were used in the present study. Results of the study indicated the two independent variables had a positive and direct relationship with sales volume forecast.
摘要对销售进行尽可能可靠的预测是每一个商业交易中最重要的问题之一。因此,近年来提出了不同的模型来处理这一问题。一个有效的模型是时间序列模型。本研究运用多元时间序列模型对Urmia Gray水泥厂的销售量进行预测,更重要的是为其他水泥厂的销售量预测提供了一个有效的模型。本研究采用成本与收入两个自变量和销售额两个因变量。研究结果表明,这两个自变量与销量预测呈正相关。
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引用次数: 4
Gender Discrimination, Education and Economic Growth in a Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Two-Sector Model 广义Uzawa-Lucas两部门模型中的性别歧视、教育与经济增长
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2014-0001
Wei-bin Zhang
Abstract This paper is mainly concerned with relationships between economic growth and gender discrimination in labor markets and education. Although discrimination in different fields has well been addresses and modelled in the economic literature, there are only a few growth models with endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation, gender time distribution between work, leisure and education under gender (positive or negative) discrimination. The production and economic structures, human capital accumulation are based on the Uzawa-Lucas model, while the utility function and gender division of labor, leisure time and study time are based on the model by Zhang. The model takes account of learning by education in modeling human capital accumulation. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of equilibrium points and motion of the national economy. We also conduct a comparative dynamic analysis in regard to changes in discrimination in the education sector, women’s propensity to stay at home, women’s propensity to receive education, women’s knowledge utilization efficiency, and the propensity to save.
摘要本文主要研究经济增长与劳动力市场和教育中的性别歧视之间的关系。尽管不同领域的歧视已经在经济学文献中得到了很好的解决和建模,但在性别(积极或消极)歧视下,只有少数增长模型具有内生财富和人力资本积累,工作,休闲和教育之间的性别时间分布。生产和经济结构、人力资本积累基于Uzawa-Lucas模型,而效用函数和性别分工、闲暇时间和学习时间基于Zhang模型。该模型在对人力资本积累进行建模时考虑了教育学习的因素。通过对该模型的模拟,证明了均衡点的存在和国民经济的运动。我们还对教育领域的歧视变化、妇女留守倾向、妇女受教育倾向、妇女知识利用效率、妇女储蓄倾向进行了比较动态分析。
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引用次数: 1
Inflation and Financial Sector Performance: The Case of Nigeria 通货膨胀与金融部门绩效:以尼日利亚为例
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2014-0003
R. S. Alimi
Abstract The paper examines the long run and short run relationships between inflation and the financial sector development in Nigeria over the period between 1970 and 2012. Three variables, namely; broad definition of money as ratio of GDP, quasi money as share of GDP and credit to private sector as share of GDP, were used to proxy financial sector development. Our findings suggest that inflation presented deleterious effects on financial development over the study period. The main implication of the results is that poor macroeconomic performance has deleterious effects to financial development - a variable that is important for affecting economic growth and income inequality. Moreover, we observed a negative effect of the measures of financial development on growth, suggesting that impact of inflation on the economic growth passes through financial sector. Therefore, low and stable prices, is a necessary first step to achieving a deeper and more active financial sector that will enhance growth as predicted by Schumpeter.
本文考察了1970年至2012年期间尼日利亚通货膨胀与金融部门发展之间的长期和短期关系。三个变量,即;广义的货币占GDP的比例,准货币占GDP的份额和私人部门信贷占GDP的份额,被用来代表金融部门的发展。我们的研究结果表明,在研究期间,通货膨胀对金融发展产生了有害影响。研究结果的主要含义是,糟糕的宏观经济表现会对金融发展产生有害影响,而金融发展是影响经济增长和收入不平等的重要变量。此外,我们观察到金融发展指标对经济增长的负面影响,表明通货膨胀对经济增长的影响通过金融部门传导。因此,低而稳定的价格是实现一个更深入、更活跃的金融部门的必要的第一步,这将促进熊彼特所预测的增长。
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引用次数: 12
Human Capital-Intensive Firms and Symbolic Value Creation 人力资本密集型企业与象征性价值创造
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2014-0004
Cécile Cézanne, Laurence Saglietto
Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the process of symbolic value creation of human capital-intensive firms. Human capital is a critical resource for firms’ activities. Nevertheless, this dimension is often obscured by industrial economists. In the light of critical resource theory, we analyze how taking into account the inalienable and inimitable nature of specific human capital entails a reconsideration of the role and boundaries of the firm. We show that the firm seeks to coordinate the specialization of its key partners within the frame of its economic boundaries to ensure the long-term optimization of its potential of value. Therefore, the value of the firm depends on all the resources that the firm coordinates. Then we focus on the way HCIF can create different values. We suggest that the firm builds its competitive advantage on different forms of values, in particular the symbolic value incorporated in human capital. Finally, on the basis of these considerations, we identify the wealth included in the critical resources of the firm and to bring to light the process of symbolic value creation associated with it. We suggest that the firm is the value creating entity and the customer both recognizes and derives the value created from whatever it is that the firm provides. We propose a definition of this value and a schema of its creation process based on management works attempts. We conclude by proposing paths of research that could fruitfully be explored to further develop this new subject.
摘要本文旨在研究人力资本密集型企业的符号价值创造过程。人力资本是企业经营活动的重要资源。然而,这个维度经常被工业经济学家所掩盖。根据关键资源理论,我们分析了如何考虑到特定人力资本的不可剥夺和不可模仿的性质,需要重新考虑公司的角色和边界。我们表明,该公司寻求在其经济边界框架内协调其主要合作伙伴的专业化,以确保其潜在价值的长期优化。因此,企业的价值取决于企业所协调的所有资源。然后我们关注HCIF如何创造不同的价值。我们建议企业将其竞争优势建立在不同形式的价值观上,特别是纳入人力资本的象征价值。最后,在这些考虑的基础上,我们确定了公司关键资源中包含的财富,并揭示了与之相关的象征性价值创造过程。我们认为,企业是创造价值的实体,无论企业提供什么,客户都承认并获得创造的价值。我们提出了这个价值的定义和一个基于管理工作尝试的创造过程的模式。最后,我们提出了可以探索的研究路径,以进一步发展这一新学科。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business
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