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Climate Transition Risk in U.S. Loan Portfolios: Are All Banks the Same? 美国贷款组合中的气候变化风险:所有银行都一样吗?
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3766592
Quyen Nguyen, I. Diaz‐Rainey, D. Kuruppuarachchi, Matthew McCarten, Eric K. M. Tan
We examine banks’ exposure to climate transition risk using a bottom-up, loan-level methodology incorporating climate stress test based on the Merton probability of default model and transition pathways from the IPCC. Specifically, we match machine learning predictions of corporate carbon footprints to syndicated loans initiated in 2010-2018 and aggregate these to loan portfolios of the twenty largest banks in the United States. Banks vary in their climate transition risk not only due to their exposure to the energy sectors but also due to borrowers’ carbon emission profiles from other sectors. Banks generally lend a minimal amount to coal (0.4%) but hold a considerable exposure in oil and gas (8.6%) and electricity firms (4.6%) and thus have a large exposure to the energy sectors (13.5%). We observe that climate transition risk profile was stable over time, save for a temporary (in some cases) and permanent (in others), reduction in their fossil-fuel exposure after the Paris Agreement. From the stress testing, the median loss is 0.5% of US syndicated loans, representing a decrease in CET1 capital of 4.1% but this may grow twice as large in the 1.5oC scenarios (1.4%-2.1% of loan value, 12%-16% of CET1 capital) compared to the 2oC target (0.6%-1.1% of loan value, 5%-9% of CET1 capital) with significant tail-end risk (7.7% of loan value, 62% of CET1 capital). Banks’ vulnerabilities are also driven by the ex-ante financial risk of their borrowers more generally, highlighting that climate risk is not independent from conventional risks.
我们采用自下而上的贷款水平方法,结合基于默顿违约概率模型和IPCC过渡路径的气候压力测试,研究了银行对气候转型风险的敞口。具体来说,我们将企业碳足迹的机器学习预测与2010-2018年发起的银团贷款相匹配,并将这些预测汇总到美国20家最大银行的贷款组合中。银行的气候转型风险各不相同,这不仅是因为它们对能源行业的敞口,还因为借款人在其他行业的碳排放概况。银行通常对煤炭的贷款很少(0.4%),但对石油和天然气(8.6%)和电力公司(4.6%)持有相当大的敞口,因此对能源部门的敞口很大(13.5%)。我们观察到,气候转型风险状况随着时间的推移是稳定的,除了在《巴黎协定》之后,它们的化石燃料暴露量出现了暂时(在某些情况下)和永久(在其他情况下)的减少。从压力测试中,损失中值为美国银团贷款的0.5%,代表CET1资本减少4.1%,但与20 oc目标(贷款价值的0.6%-1.1%,CET1资本的5%-9%)相比,1.5oC情景(贷款价值的1.4%-2.1%,CET1资本的12%-16%)的损失可能会增加两倍(贷款价值的7.7%,CET1资本的62%)。银行的脆弱性也更普遍地受到借款人事前金融风险的驱动,这突显出气候风险并非独立于传统风险。
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引用次数: 13
Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: the Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion 限额与交易计划中的套期保值和临时许可发放:风险规避下的市场稳定储备
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3436736
O. Tietjen, K. Lessmann, M. Pahle
Abstract Cap-and-trade programs such as the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) expose firms to considerable risks, to which the firms can respond with hedging. We develop an intertemporal stochastic equilibrium model to analyze the implications of hedging by risk-averse firms. We show that the resulting time-varying risk premium depends on the size of the permit bank. Applying the model to the EU ETS, we find that hedging can lead to a U-shaped price path, because prices initially fall due to negative risk premiums and then rise as the hedging demand declines. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) reduces the permit bank and thus, increases the hedging value of the permits. This offers an explanation for the recent price hike, but also implies that prices may decline in the future due to more negative risk premiums. In addition, we find higher permit cancellations through the MSR than previous analyses, which do not account for hedging.
欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)等限额与交易计划使企业面临相当大的风险,企业可以通过对冲来应对。我们建立了一个跨期随机均衡模型来分析风险规避公司对冲的影响。我们表明,由此产生的时变风险溢价取决于许可证银行的规模。将该模型应用于EU ETS,我们发现套期保值可以导致u型价格路径,因为价格最初由于负风险溢价而下跌,然后随着套期保值需求的下降而上升。市场稳定储备(MSR)减少了许可证存量,从而增加了许可证的对冲价值。这为最近的价格上涨提供了解释,但也意味着由于更多的负风险溢价,未来价格可能会下跌。此外,我们发现通过MSR取消许可证的数量比之前的分析要高,因为之前的分析没有考虑对冲。
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引用次数: 18
Price of Liquidity in the Reinsurance of Fund Returns 基金收益再保险中的流动性价格
Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3738175
D. Saunders, L. Seco, M. Senn
This paper aims to extend downside protection to a hedge fund investment portfolio based on shared loss fee structures that have become increasing popular in the market. In particular, we consider a second tranche and suggest the purchase of an upfront reinsurance contract for any losses on the fund beyond the threshold covered by the first tranche, i.e. gaining full portfolio protection. We identify a fund’s underlying liquidity as a key parameter and study the pricing of this additional reinsurance using two approaches: First, an analytic closed-form solution based on the Black-Scholes framework and second, a numerical simulation using a Markov-switching model. In addition, a simplified backtesting method is implemented to evaluate the practical application of the concept.
本文旨在将下行保护扩展到基于分担损失费用结构的对冲基金投资组合中,这种结构在市场上越来越流行。特别是,我们考虑第二部分,并建议购买一份预先再保险合同,以弥补超过第一部分所涵盖的阈值的基金损失,即获得全面的投资组合保护。我们将基金的潜在流动性作为一个关键参数,并使用两种方法研究这种额外再保险的定价:第一,基于Black-Scholes框架的解析封闭形式解,第二,使用马尔可夫转换模型的数值模拟。此外,还采用一种简化的回测方法来评估该概念的实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
Credit Rating Agencies in Canada: Industry Issues and How to Regulate Them 加拿大信用评级机构:行业问题及如何监管
Pub Date : 2020-11-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3757290
Branko Malaver-Vojvodic
The objective of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) is to reduce the degree of asymmetric information in capital markets by issuing judgments. These judgments, also known as ratings, provide investors with the likeliness of default of debt issuers and represent valuable input for the global financial system as they allow them to better perceive the risks associated with investing in government/corporate bonds or preferred stock. Despite how useful they are providing an estimation of the credit quality of investment products, CRAs remain open to criticism because of three main issues which were some of the main catalysts of the 2008 financial crisis: 1) The issuer-pays model, 2) lack of competition, and 3) mandatory reliance on ratings. Since then, international financial authorities worldwide have focused on implementing regulations to address the inconveniences regarding the rating process.

This paper deeply reviews the previously enounced issues involving CRAs and it proposes the following policy recommendations for Canada: 1) To make CRAs liable for deliberate malperformance, 2) to improve the central monitoring of CRAs’ activities, and 3) to conduct research on which business models may be more suitable than the issuer-pays model. These recommendations are extensively based on the academic literature about the CRA industry, and the implemented measures in the United States and the European Union. It is concluded that regardless of the numerous efficient regulations implemented after the Great Recession, another global financial crisis remains latent while CRAs continue to operate under the current framework.
信用评级机构(CRAs)的目标是通过发布判断来降低资本市场的信息不对称程度。这些判断,也被称为评级,为投资者提供了债务发行人违约的可能性,并为全球金融体系提供了有价值的输入,因为它们使他们能够更好地感知与投资政府/公司债券或优先股相关的风险。尽管评级机构提供了对投资产品信用质量的评估,但它们仍然面临批评,因为有三个主要问题是2008年金融危机的一些主要催化剂:1)发行者付费模式;2)缺乏竞争;3)强制性依赖评级。此后,世界各国的金融当局为解决评级过程中的不便,集中实施了相关规定。本文深入回顾了之前公布的涉及信用评级机构的问题,并为加拿大提出了以下政策建议:1)使信用评级机构对故意失当行为负责;2)改善对信用评级机构活动的中央监控;3)研究哪种商业模式可能比发行者支付模式更合适。这些建议广泛基于CRA行业的学术文献,以及美国和欧盟实施的措施。结论是,尽管大衰退后实施了许多有效的监管措施,但在评级机构继续在当前框架下运作的情况下,另一场全球金融危机仍是潜在的。
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引用次数: 0
FAQs on 'Getting Rid of Issuer-Pay Will Not Improve Credit Ratings' 有关“取消发债人付款不会改善信用评级”的常见问题
Pub Date : 2020-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3743358
Douglas J. Lucas
“Getting Rid of Issuer-Pay Will Not Improve Credit Ratings” sparked questions, which we will try to answer here:

• Why was S&P so slow to downgrade subprime ratings 2007-09?
• Did other rating agencies downgrade these debts faster than S&P?
• If banning issuer pay isn’t sufficient, how can S&P’s credit ratings be improved?
“摆脱发行者支付不会改善信用评级”引发了一些问题,我们将在这里尝试回答:•为什么标普在2007-09年下调次贷评级时如此缓慢?•其他评级机构下调这些债务的速度是否比标普更快?•如果禁止发行人支付还不够,如何才能提高标普的信用评级?
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引用次数: 0
The Curious Case of Backward Short Rates 反向短期利率的奇特案例
Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728873
A. Lyashenko, Yutian Nie
In this paper, we discuss how to discretize continuous-time short rate models in order to properly handle backward-looking interest rate derivatives. We show that the popular discretization approaches are based on forward-looking one-period rates, making them intrinsically ill-suited to deal with backward-looking rates. We propose a simple backward discretization approach that is beneficial when dealing with both backward-looking and forward-looking interest rate derivatives.
在本文中,我们讨论了如何离散连续时间短期利率模型,以适当地处理后视利率衍生品。我们表明,流行的离散化方法是基于前瞻性的一期利率,使它们本质上不适合处理向后看的利率。我们提出了一种简单的向后离散化方法,该方法在处理向后和前瞻性利率衍生品时都是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing Distortion Riskmetrics With Distributional Uncertainty 具有分布不确定性的失真风险度量优化
Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728638
Silvana M. Pesenti, Qiuqi Wang, Ruodu Wang
Optimization of distortion riskmetrics with distributional uncertainty has wide applications in finance and operations research. Distortion riskmetrics include many commonly applied risk measures and deviation measures, which are not necessarily monotone or convex. One of our central findings is a unifying result that allows us to convert an optimization of a non-convex distortion riskmetric with distributional uncertainty to a convex one, leading to great tractability. The key to the unifying equivalence result is the novel notion of closedness under concentration of sets of distributions. Our results include many special cases that are well studied in the optimization literature, including but not limited to optimizing probabilities, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Yaari's dual utility under various forms of distributional uncertainty. We illustrate our theoretical results via applications to portfolio optimization, optimization under moment constraints, and preference robust optimization.
具有分布不确定性的失真风险指标优化在金融和运筹学研究中有着广泛的应用。失真风险度量包括许多常用的风险度量和偏差度量,它们不一定是单调的或凸的。我们的中心发现之一是一个统一的结果,它允许我们将具有分布不确定性的非凸失真风险度量的优化转换为凸风险度量,从而具有很大的可跟踪性。统一等价结果的关键是在分布集集中下的封闭性的新概念。我们的结果包括许多在优化文献中得到很好研究的特殊情况,包括但不限于优化概率、风险价值、预期不足和各种形式的分布不确定性下的Yaari的对偶效用。我们通过应用组合优化、矩约束下的优化和偏好鲁棒优化来说明我们的理论结果。
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引用次数: 8
Machine Learning in Credit Risk: Measuring the Dilemma Between Prediction and Supervisory Cost 信用风险中的机器学习:衡量预测成本与监督成本之间的困境
Pub Date : 2020-11-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3724374
A. Alonso, Joselyn Carbo
New reports show that the fi nancial sector is increasingly adopting machine learning (ML) tools to manage credit risk. In this environment, supervisors face the challenge of allowing credit institutions to benefi t from technological progress and financial innovation, while at the same ensuring compatibility with regulatory requirements and that technological neutrality is observed. We propose a new framework for supervisors to measure the costs and benefi ts of evaluating ML models, aiming to shed more light on this technology’s alignment with the regulation. We follow three steps. First, we identify the benefi ts by reviewing the literature. We observe that ML delivers predictive gains of up to 20 % in default classifi cation compared with traditional statistical models. Second, we use the process for validating internal ratings-based (IRB) systems for regulatory capital to detect ML’s limitations in credit risk mangement. We identify up to 13 factors that might constitute a supervisory cost. Finally, we propose a methodology for evaluating these costs. For illustrative purposes, we compute the benefi ts by estimating the predictive gains of six ML models using a public database on credit default. We then calculate a supervisory cost function through a scorecard in which we assign weights to each factor for each ML model, based on how the model is used by the fi nancial institution and the supervisor’s risk tolerance. From a supervisory standpoint,having a structured methodology for assessing ML models could increase transparency and remove an obstacle to innovation in the financial industry.
新的报告显示,金融部门越来越多地采用机器学习(ML)工具来管理信用风险。在这种环境下,监管机构面临的挑战是允许信贷机构从技术进步和金融创新中受益,同时确保符合监管要求并遵守技术中立性。我们为监管者提出了一个新的框架,以衡量评估ML模型的成本和收益,旨在更多地阐明该技术与监管的一致性。我们遵循三个步骤。首先,我们通过回顾文献来确定其益处。我们观察到,与传统统计模型相比,ML在默认分类中提供了高达20%的预测增益。其次,我们使用这个过程来验证监管资本的内部评级(IRB)系统,以检测ML在信用风险管理方面的局限性。我们确定了多达13个可能构成监管成本的因素。最后,我们提出了一种评估这些成本的方法。为了便于说明,我们通过使用公共信用违约数据库估计六个ML模型的预测收益来计算收益。然后,我们通过记分卡计算监管成本函数,其中我们根据金融机构使用模型的方式和监管者的风险承受能力,为每个ML模型的每个因素分配权重。从监管的角度来看,有一个结构化的方法来评估机器学习模型可以提高透明度,并消除金融行业创新的障碍。
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引用次数: 22
Adverse Climate Incidents and Bank Loan Contracting 不利气候事件和银行贷款合同
Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3723771
D. Anginer, Karel Hrazdil, Jiyuan Li, Ray Zhang
We investigate how a borrower’s adverse climate-related incidents affect bank loan contracting. Using a sample of 2,622 publicly traded US firms over the period 2000–2016, we construct event-based measures of corporate climate performances based on firm-level adverse climate incidents such as oil spills, excess carbon emissions and deforestation projects. We show that loans initiated after the occurrence of firms’ first adverse climate-related incidents have significantly higher spreads, shorter maturities, more covenant restrictions, and higher likelihood of being secured with collateral. In cross-sectional tests, we find that the intensity and influence of adverse climate-related incidents exacerbate the pricing of bank loans. Our results support the notion that banks incorporate firm-specific climate performance into their lending contracts.
我们调查借款人的不利气候相关事件如何影响银行贷款合同。我们以2000年至2016年期间2,622家美国上市公司为样本,基于公司层面的不利气候事件(如石油泄漏、过量碳排放和森林砍伐项目),构建了基于事件的企业气候绩效衡量标准。我们发现,在企业第一次不利气候相关事件发生后发起的贷款具有显著更高的利差、更短的期限、更多的契约限制和更高的抵押品担保可能性。在横断面检验中,我们发现与气候相关的不利事件的强度和影响加剧了银行贷款的定价。我们的研究结果支持银行将企业特定的气候绩效纳入其贷款合同的观点。
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引用次数: 5
Historical Analysis of Rough Volatility Models to the SPX Market 标准普尔指数市场粗糙波动率模型的历史分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3678235
Sigurd Emil Rømer
We perform a historical analysis of selected rough volatility models to the SPX market. Tailoring the neural network pricing method of [27] to our needs, we train neural networks for the rough Heston model from [14], the rough Bergomi model from [4] as well as an extended version of the latter. As a benchmark we include also the classical Heston model from [24]. Calibrating the models across 15 years of historical SPX options prices we first and foremost document consistently superior results using rough volatility. Comparing rough Heston and rough Bergomi we also find that while the former model calibrates slightly better, the latter model produces more robust predictions. Our calibration results also illuminate a structural problem in that both of these models (on average) produces too little curvature at short expirations, too little skew at long expirations. Using an extended rough Bergomi model where the explosion rates of smile and skew are decoupled, did not resolve this problem.
我们对选定的粗略波动率模型对标准普尔指数市场进行历史分析。根据我们的需求调整[27]的神经网络定价方法,我们为[14]中的粗糙Heston模型、[4]中的粗糙Bergomi模型以及后者的扩展版本训练神经网络。作为基准,我们还包括[24]中的经典Heston模型。通过对15年历史标准普尔指数期权价格的模型进行校准,我们首先使用粗糙波动率记录了一致的卓越结果。比较粗略的赫斯顿模型和粗略的Bergomi模型,我们还发现,虽然前者模型的校准稍微好一些,但后者模型的预测更稳健。我们的校准结果还阐明了一个结构性问题,即这两种模型(平均而言)在短到期时产生的曲率太小,在长到期时产生的偏度太小。使用一个扩展的粗糙Bergomi模型,其中微笑和倾斜的爆炸速率解耦,并没有解决这个问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Risk Management eJournal
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