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Economic Insecurity and Well-being 经济不安全与福祉
Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.18356/25206656-173
L. Osberg
In Article 25 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the United Nations recognized in 1948 the basic human right to “security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond ... control.” This paper examines how economic insecurity is related to, yet different from, poverty and inequality, why it matters for human well-being and how it has been changing in different countries around the world in recent years. The paper concludes with discussion of how economic insecurity has been and will be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic/recession. JEL Classification: D6, D63, H55, I1, I30, I31 and I38, O10, P16
1948年,联合国在《世界人权宣言》第25条第1款中承认,“在失业、疾病、残疾、丧偶、老年或其他丧失生计的情况下,享有安全”是基本人权。控制。”本文研究了经济不安全与贫困和不平等之间的关系,以及经济不安全与贫困和不平等之间的区别,为什么经济不安全对人类福祉至关重要,以及近年来经济不安全在世界各国的变化情况。本文最后讨论了2019冠状病毒病大流行/经济衰退已经并将如何影响经济不安全。JEL分类:D6、D63、H55、I1、I30、I31、I38、O10、P16
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引用次数: 1
What Does the United Nations “say” About Global Agenda? An Exploration of Trends Using Natural Language Processing for Machine Learning 联合国对全球议程“说”了什么?机器学习中使用自然语言处理的趋势探索
Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.18356/25206656-171
Namsuk Kim, Marcelo T. Lafleur
How has the focus of the UN General Assembly changed over time and how well is the global agenda expressed in these documents? This paper presents a proof-of-concept classifier to examine the evolution of the global agenda expressed and observed in words of the UN General Assembly resolutions. Using natural language processing to identify four categories of resolutions — Sustainable Development, Justice and Law, Human Rights, and Peace and Security — the analysis of 3,765 UN GA resolutions from 2007 to 2019 reveals the changing areas of focus of the Member States and, as a result, of the UN Secretariat. Sustainable Development is slowly gaining importance in the language in UN resolutions.
随着时间的推移,联合国大会的重点发生了怎样的变化?这些文件如何很好地表达了全球议程?本文提出了一个概念验证分类器来检查在联合国大会决议中表达和观察到的全球议程的演变。利用自然语言处理识别四类决议——可持续发展、司法与法律、人权、和平与安全——对2007年至2019年联合国大会3765项决议的分析揭示了会员国以及联合国秘书处关注领域的变化。可持续发展在联合国决议的措辞中逐渐变得重要起来。
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引用次数: 1
How Long Will it Take for LDCs and SIDS to Recover From the Impacts of COVID-19? 最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家需要多长时间才能从COVID-19的影响中恢复过来?
Pub Date : 2021-06-16 DOI: 10.18356/25206656-170
Namsuk Kim, E. Harris, R. Mollerus, Matthias Bruckner, Mereseini Bower, Marcia Tavares, Daniel Gay, Eun Hee Lee
The COVID-19 pandemic is entailing huge costs worldwide. To help developing countries formulate policy responses to minimize negative impacts of the COVID-19, possible size and duration of the shocks on most vulnerable countries, i.e., least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and their resilience to overcome the shocks need to be assessed. This paper quantitatively examines possible paths of LDCs and SIDS recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, using an autoregressive model of income growth and a panel regression model of external demand for LDCs and SIDS. Evidence from the experience of the 2007-08 global financial crisis suggests that the income growth of LDCs and SIDS had not recovered to the level of pre-crisis rates even 5 years after the crisis. This suggests a slower recovery for many LDCs and SIDS, while developed economies were able to achieve a quick recovery. The magnitude of current COVID-19 crisis relative to previous shocks is unknown, and so the regression analysis suggested that, if income in advanced economies fell by 6 per cent in 2020 and bounced back in 2021, growth of per capita income in LDCs and SIDS may need about 4 to 5 years to be able to return to the projected path under the baseline scenario without the COVID-19 crisis. The actual speed and duration of recovery in LDCs and SIDS are likely to be slower and longer, considering other factors, such as additional impacts from shocks related to commodity prices and climate change. JEL Classification: E17; F47; O10; O47; O57
2019冠状病毒病大流行在全球范围内造成了巨大损失。为帮助发展中国家制定政策应对措施,最大限度地减少新冠肺炎的负面影响,需要评估最脆弱国家(即最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家)可能遭受的冲击的规模和持续时间,以及它们抵御冲击的能力。本文采用收入增长自回归模型和最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家外部需求面板回归模型,定量考察了最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家从2019冠状病毒病危机影响中恢复的可能路径。2007-08年全球金融危机的经验表明,即使在危机发生5年后,最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家的收入增长也没有恢复到危机前的水平。这表明许多最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家的复苏速度较慢,而发达经济体则能够实现快速复苏。当前COVID-19危机相对于以往冲击的严重程度尚不清楚,因此回归分析表明,如果发达经济体的收入在2020年下降6%并在2021年反弹,最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家的人均收入增长可能需要大约4至5年的时间才能回到基线情景下没有COVID-19危机的预测路径。考虑到其他因素,例如与商品价格和气候变化有关的冲击的额外影响,最不发达国家和小岛屿发展中国家的实际复苏速度和持续时间可能会更慢、更长。JEL分类:E17;F47;O10;O47;O57
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引用次数: 2
The COVID-19 Crisis: What Explains Cross-country Differences in the Pandemic’s Short-term Economic Impact? COVID-19危机:如何解释疫情短期经济影响的跨国差异?
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.18356/25206656-174
Lennart Niermann, Ingo A. Pitterle
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However, the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard, while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper, we employ a cross-country analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition, our results shed light on several aspects of economic resilience. Good governance, provision of fiscal support and strong macroeconomic fundamentals all helped cushion the economic impact. By contrast, a lack of economic diversification – reflected in overreliance on the tourism sector or oil production – has significantly amplified the shock.
COVID-19大流行造成了近代史上最普遍的健康和社会经济危机。然而,经济损失的程度差别很大;一些国家受灾特别严重,而另一些国家则成功地抵御了这场风暴。在本文中,我们采用了一项跨国分析,以确定有助于解释COVID-19冲击对增长影响差异的因素。我们的研究结果强调了平衡健康和经济问题在管理大流行方面的关键作用,因为一个国家对冠状病毒的暴露程度和遏制措施的严格程度与其增长表现密切相关。此外,我们的研究结果揭示了经济弹性的几个方面。良好的治理、财政支持和强劲的宏观经济基本面都有助于缓解经济影响。相比之下,缺乏经济多样化——反映在对旅游业或石油生产的过度依赖上——大大放大了这种冲击。
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引用次数: 2
A Post-SDG Summit Governance Primer: Interlinking the Institutional, Peace and Justice Dimensions of SDG16 (2016–2019) 可持续发展目标峰会后的治理入门:将可持续发展目标16的体制、和平与正义层面联系起来(2016-2019)
Pub Date : 2020-06-17 DOI: 10.18356/ac569614-en
P. K. Blind
As the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development enters its fifth year of implementation, it is opportune to ask how governance is understood and implemented around the world. In fact, one can go further to probe the extent to which governments are cognizant of the principles undergirding effective governance. This paper examines the ways in which governance has been operationalized by countries, major groups and other stakeholders since the first round of Voluntary National Reviews at the High-level Political Forum (HLPF) of 2016. It does this based on the qualitative overview of the Synthesis reports of Voluntary National Reviews (2016–2029), and the quantitative analysis of three SDG databases: Voluntary National Reviews, SDG Good Practices and the SDG Acceleration Actions. It starts with a literature review of the multidimensional concept of governance. The three databases are then scoped through a series of keywords associated with the SDG16 governance targets. It finds that although SDG 16 is catalytic to progress on all other SDGs, its governance dimension does not receive due focus. The article concludes with several action areas to mainstream the governance dimension of SDG16 in sustainable development.
随着2030年可持续发展议程进入实施的第五个年头,我们有必要问一问,在世界各地如何理解和实施治理?事实上,我们可以进一步探究政府在多大程度上认识到有效治理的基本原则。本文考察了自2016年高级别政治论坛(高级别政治论坛)第一轮自愿国家审查以来,各国、主要群体和其他利益攸关方实施治理的方式。该报告基于对《2016-2029年自愿国家审查综合报告》的定性概述,以及对三个可持续发展目标数据库(自愿国家审查、可持续发展目标良好做法和可持续发展目标加速行动)的定量分析。首先是对多维治理概念的文献回顾。然后通过与SDG16治理目标相关的一系列关键字对这三个数据库进行范围界定。报告发现,尽管可持续发展目标16对所有其他可持续发展目标的进展具有催化作用,但其治理维度并未得到应有的关注。文章最后提出了将可持续发展目标16的治理维度纳入可持续发展主流的几个行动领域。
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引用次数: 0
Exporters in Africa: What Role for Trade Costs? 非洲出口商:贸易成本扮演什么角色?
Pub Date : 2019-09-27 DOI: 10.18356/b73d0b27-en
H. Afonso, Sebastián Vergara
This paper investigates the role of trade costs for exporter dynamics in Africa. In comparison to exporters from other regions, African exporting firms are fewer, smaller, and relatively less diversified in terms of products and destinations. African countries also display the highest rates of entry, exit, and turnover of exporting firms, exporting products, and export destinations. This suggests that Africa’s exporting activity is volatile and subject to much experimentation, with exporters facing difficulties maintaining trade relationships. The analysis also confirms that trade costs are a crucial factor in explaining exporter performance in Africa vis-à-vis other regions, but also among African countries. Trade costs play a disproportionate role in affecting the size of new exporters and the survival of exporters in Africa. Also, trade cost differences across African countries are a relevant factor in explaining the lower market diversification of exporters from landlocked countries. A key implication is that the African Continental Free Trade Area can bring many benefits in terms of export flows and destination markets. Yet, without strengthening productive capacities, the diversification of export products will likely remain limited.
本文研究了贸易成本对非洲出口商动态的影响。与其他地区的出口商相比,非洲出口公司数量较少,规模较小,在产品和目的地方面也相对缺乏多样化。非洲国家也显示出最高的进出口率,以及出口公司、出口产品和出口目的地的营业额。这表明,非洲的出口活动是不稳定的,受到许多试验的影响,出口商在维持贸易关系方面面临困难。分析还证实,贸易成本是解释非洲出口商相对-à-vis其他区域以及非洲国家的表现的一个关键因素。贸易成本在影响非洲新出口商的规模和出口商的生存方面发挥了不成比例的作用。此外,非洲各国之间的贸易成本差异也是解释内陆国家出口商市场多样化程度较低的一个相关因素。一个关键的含义是,非洲大陆自由贸易区可以在出口流量和目的地市场方面带来许多好处。然而,如果不加强生产能力,出口产品的多样化可能仍然有限。
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引用次数: 2
Humanitarian SDGs 人道主义西班牙
Pub Date : 2019-05-31 DOI: 10.18356/a2d75e71-en
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引用次数: 1
The 2030 Agenda 2030年议程
Pub Date : 2018-11-15 DOI: 10.18356/E0EC0230-EN
Filipa Correia, P. Erfurth, Julie Bryhn
This paper conceptualizes recently negotiated international agreements, particularly the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as a collective roadmap to overcome challenges associated with globalization. By analyzing the effects and implications of globalization on societies and economies, the paper highlights concrete aspects of the international commitments that address globalization challenges in the three dimensions of sustainable development. Particular focus is placed on global production patterns, labor markets, poverty and inequality, global imbalances, migration and climate change. The paper concludes that, in the context of a changing political economy of globalization and multilateralism, concrete steps to be taken should include efforts to forge a new social contract, tackle inequalities within and between countries, address adverse effects of globalization on domestic economies, promote decent work, strengthen global institutions and tackle environmental challenges.
本文将最近谈判达成的国际协议,特别是《2030年可持续发展议程》概念化为克服全球化相关挑战的集体路线图。通过分析全球化对社会和经济的影响和影响,本文强调了在可持续发展的三个维度中应对全球化挑战的国际承诺的具体方面。特别侧重于全球生产模式、劳动力市场、贫穷和不平等、全球失衡、移徙和气候变化。本文的结论是,在全球化和多边主义的政治经济不断变化的背景下,需要采取的具体步骤应包括努力建立新的社会契约,解决国家内部和国家之间的不平等,解决全球化对国内经济的不利影响,促进体面工作,加强全球机构和应对环境挑战。
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引用次数: 8
The Role of Productive and Technological Capabilities on Export Dynamics in Developing Countries 发展中国家生产和技术能力对出口动态的作用
Pub Date : 2018-09-07 DOI: 10.18356/a7172cae-en
Sebastián Vergara
Productive and technological capabilities matter. Several strains of the literature have emphasized them as major engines of export, growth and development. But how they matter is less clear. In fact, many open questions remain on how capabilities influence export dynamics at microeconomic level. This paper empirically investigates their role on export dynamics in 40 developing countries between 2002 and 2012. In doing so, the paper exploits a country-sector-year database containing exporter-level statistical information. The empirical analysis shows that, within sectors, there is a larger number of exporters in countries with more productive capacities, and the exporters are larger and have higher prices for their products, even after controlling for level of development, size of the economy, commodity-dependency and other variables. Also, the results confirm a positive relationship between technological capabilities and diversification: within sectors, exporters in countries with more capabilities tend to export a higher number of products and to more destination markets. Furthermore, capabilities in high-technology exporters seem to play a crucial role regarding market diversification. Thus, the paper shows that, even just comparing exporters' behaviour among the developing countries, stronger productive and technological capabilities are significantly related to the "extensive" and "intensive" margin of exports, the diversification across products and destinations, and the product quality, all relevant aspects of developing countries' insertion in global trade markets. Overall, the paper underscores the role of capabilities not only on developing countries' macroeconomic resilience to trade shocks, but also on their medium-term development prospects.
生产和技术能力很重要。一些文献强调它们是出口、增长和发展的主要引擎。但它们究竟有多重要还不太清楚。事实上,在能力如何影响微观经济层面的出口动态方面,仍存在许多悬而未决的问题。本文对2002 - 2012年间40个发展中国家的出口动态进行了实证研究。为此,本文利用了一个国家-部门-年度数据库,其中载有出口商一级的统计资料。经验分析表明,在部门内,生产能力较强的国家有较多的出口商,即使在控制了发展水平、经济规模、商品依赖性和其他变量之后,出口商的规模更大,其产品的价格也更高。此外,结果证实了技术能力与多样化之间的积极关系:在部门内,能力较强的国家的出口商倾向于出口更多数量的产品和更多的目的地市场。此外,高科技出口商的能力似乎在市场多样化方面起着至关重要的作用。因此,本文表明,即使只是比较发展中国家出口商的行为,更强的生产和技术能力也与出口的“粗放型”和“集约型”边际、产品和目的地的多样化以及产品质量显著相关,这些都是发展中国家进入全球贸易市场的相关方面。总体而言,本文强调了能力不仅对发展中国家抵御贸易冲击的宏观经济韧性,而且对其中期发展前景的作用。
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引用次数: 6
The Role of External Audits in Enhancing Transparency and Accountability for the Sustainable Development Goals 外部审计在提高可持续发展目标透明度和问责制方面的作用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.18356/3FE94447-EN
Aránzazu Guilán Montero, D. Blanc
This paper examines the involvement of supreme audit institutions (SAIs) in auditing the preparedness of governments for implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015. These audits have covered institutional arrangements put in place to implement the SDGs, the mobilization of resources, and monitoring and evaluation frameworks. SDG preparedness audits have produced valuable information that is not necessarily available from other national processes linked with SDG follow-up and review. As such, audit recommendations can be a powerful tool to help governments improve SDG implementation. The paper reflects on the impact that SDG audits have made, and on the challenges and opportunities for SAIs that have engaged in this exercise. While many of these challenges are generic to the work of SAIs, SDG audits also present specific political, institutional and technical problems. Finally, the paper explores questions that this new area of engagement poses for SAIs, including the long-term prospects for institutionalization of SDG audits and the relationship with other accountability mechanisms for the SDGs at the national level.
本文考察了自2015年以来,最高审计机构(SAIs)参与审计政府实施可持续发展目标(sdg)的准备情况。这些审计涵盖了落实可持续发展目标的体制安排、资源调动以及监测和评估框架。可持续发展目标准备工作审计产生了有价值的信息,这些信息不一定能从与可持续发展目标后续行动和审查相关的其他国家进程中获得。因此,审计建议可以成为帮助政府改善可持续发展目标实施的有力工具。该文件反映了可持续发展目标审计所产生的影响,以及参与这项工作的审计机构所面临的挑战和机遇。虽然这些挑战中有许多是SAIs工作的一般性挑战,但可持续发展目标审计也存在具体的政治、体制和技术问题。最后,本文探讨了这一新的参与领域给机构带来的问题,包括可持续发展目标审计制度化的长期前景,以及与国家层面其他可持续发展目标问责机制的关系。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers
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