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National Secession最新文献

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Looking Forward 期待
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501725982.003.0009
Philip G. Roeder
The conclusion engages elements of the programmatic analysis that call for further investigation in future research, its predictions of potential national-secession hot spots in the next decades, and the policy implications for central governments confronting national secessionism to engage the struggle for minds created by campaigns engaged in programmatic coordination.
结论涉及到纲领分析的要素,这些要素需要在未来的研究中进一步调查,它对未来几十年潜在的民族分裂热点的预测,以及中央政府面对民族分裂主义的政策影响,以参与纲领协调运动所创造的思想斗争。
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引用次数: 0
Organization and Mobilization in Campaign Development 运动发展中的组织和动员
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501725982.003.0003
Philip G. Roeder
This begins a two-chapter examination of the Leninist strategy of ideological-organizational work that subsequently influenced national-secession campaigns worldwide through transnational networks of mutual support. Chapter 3 elaborates on the more familiar organizational tasks of cultivating a leadership of intellectuals and politicians, a staff of cadres and activists, and a participatory reserve of part-time supporters. Recruiting each defines the three developmental stages of a campaign as establishment (recruiting leadership), capacitation (building a staff), and association (preparing reservists for future action). But these organizational tasks do not provide coordination without ideological unity. This chapter illustrates its claims with evidence from the Timor Leste and Basque campaigns.
这开始了对列宁主义的意识形态组织工作策略的两章考察,该策略随后通过相互支持的跨国网络影响了世界范围内的民族分裂运动。第三章详细阐述了更熟悉的组织任务,即培养知识分子和政治家的领导,干部和积极分子的工作人员,以及兼职支持者的参与储备。招募每个人定义了一个运动的三个发展阶段:建立(招募领导),能力(建立工作人员)和协会(为未来的行动准备预备役人员)。但是,没有思想上的统一,这些组织任务就不能提供协调。本章以东帝汶和巴斯克战役的证据说明其主张。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Constraints 战略的约束
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501725982.003.0002
Philip G. Roeder
This chapter examines the lessons that national-secession campaign leaders can draw from the successful secessions since 1945. It defines the concept of national-secession and identifies on this basis the 171 campaigns that secured a place on the agenda of the western great powers from 1945 to 2016. This census also identifies those campaigns that employed violence as a tactic in their disputes with their central governments. The 26 successful secessions that achieved independence through international intervention, expulsion by the central government, abandonment, or collapse at the center give campaign leaders little evidence to expect they can achieve independence by forcing this on the central government by the campaign’s own means without a fortuitous intervention of events in the central government or from foreign powers.
本章探讨了1945年以来国家分裂运动领导人可以从成功的分裂运动中吸取的教训。它定义了民族分裂的概念,并在此基础上确定了1945年至2016年在西方列强议程上占据一席之地的171次运动。这次人口普查还确定了那些在与中央政府的纠纷中使用暴力作为策略的运动。通过国际干预、被中央政府驱逐、被抛弃或在中央崩溃等方式成功实现独立的26个分裂国家,让运动领导人几乎没有证据表明,他们可以在没有中央政府或外国势力偶然干预的情况下,通过运动自己的手段迫使中央政府实现独立。
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引用次数: 0
Three Questions about National Secession 关于国家分裂的三个问题
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/CORNELL/9781501725982.003.0001
Philip G. Roeder
This chapter frames the central question: How and under what conditions do national-secession projects become significant campaigns by getting on the global agenda, give rise to intractable disputes with their central governments over independence, and sustain protracted intense struggles? It then introduces the programmatic analytic approach that focuses on the strategy of national-secession campaigns to coordinate their imagined nations around the common goal of independence. Too weak to achieve their goal of independence through a contest of arms with their central governments, most national-secession campaigns focus their efforts on propagation of their programs so as to await opportunities when the international community imposes independence on the central government or when the central government collapses.
本章构建了核心问题:民族分裂项目如何以及在什么条件下通过进入全球议程而成为重大运动,引起与中央政府就独立问题的棘手争端,并维持旷日持久的激烈斗争?然后介绍了计划性分析方法,该方法侧重于国家分裂运动的战略,以协调他们围绕独立的共同目标设想的国家。由于力量太弱,无法通过与中央政府的军备竞赛来实现独立的目标,大多数民族分裂运动都把精力集中在宣传自己的纲领上,以便在国际社会要求中央政府独立或中央政府垮台时等待机会。
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引用次数: 0
Programmatic Coordination in Campaigns 运动的方案协调
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/CORNELL/9781501725982.003.0004
Philip G. Roeder
This chapter explains the role of the common goal of independence that holds together constituents of the campaign who have diverse motivations for joining the campaign. These types include enthusiasts (true believers in independence), expressionists (activists who revel in the struggle), and pragmatists (who see independence as a means to serve economic and political interests). Campaign leaders must allocate incentives to bring each type into the campaign at the proper stage of campaign development and phase of activation, but still limiting the damage that each type of constituent can impose on a campaign if not matched to the right task or time. This micro-level strategy explains why we observe at the macro-level only weak relationships between specific patterns of identity, grievance, and greed to the rise of national-secession campaigns. And it explains why the authenticity and realism of the campaigns program emerge as key constraints on campaign success at programmatic coordination. This chapter includes a brief analysis of the Eritrean struggle for independence to illustrate the importance of programmatic coordination.
这一章解释了独立这一共同目标的作用,它将有不同动机的选民聚集在一起。这些类型包括狂热者(真正相信独立的人),表现主义者(陶醉于斗争的积极分子)和实用主义者(将独立视为服务于经济和政治利益的手段)。竞选领导人必须分配激励措施,让每一种类型的选民在竞选发展和激活的适当阶段进入竞选,但仍然限制每一种类型的选民在没有适当的任务或时间匹配的情况下对竞选造成的损害。这种微观层面的策略解释了为什么我们在宏观层面上观察到,特定的身份、不满和贪婪模式与国家分裂运动的兴起之间只有微弱的关系。这也解释了为什么竞选计划的真实性和现实性在计划协调中成为竞选成功的关键制约因素。本章包括对厄立特里亚争取独立斗争的简要分析,以说明方案协调的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Complementary Explanations 补充解释
Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.7591/CORNELL/9781501725982.003.0008
Philip G. Roeder
This chapter examines how the strategy of programmatic coordination turns the identities, grievances, and ambitions (greed) commonly invoked to explain substantial secessionist campaigns into substitutable motivations with which campaign cadres work to construct support for the goal of independence. The tactical-logistical opportunities that are often added to explain the resort to violence are for national-secession campaign leaders remote considerations when armed victory over the central government is an unrealistic operational objective. Introducing variables from these more common explanations into the statistical analysis introduced in Chapters 5 and 7 yields results that are substantially weaker than those for the cues to programmatic authenticity and realism.
本章考察了计划性协调策略如何将通常用来解释实质性分离主义运动的身份、不满和野心(贪婪)转变为可替代的动机,运动干部利用这些动机来构建对独立目标的支持。当武装战胜中央政府是一个不切实际的行动目标时,国家分裂运动的领导人往往会考虑到诉诸暴力的战术和后勤机会。将这些更常见的解释中的变量引入到第5章和第7章介绍的统计分析中,所产生的结果远远弱于对规划真实性和现实性的提示。
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引用次数: 0
List of Figures and Tables 图表列表
Pub Date : 2014-06-12 DOI: 10.7591/9781501725999-001
Giuseppina Balossi
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引用次数: 0
期刊
National Secession
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