The 2017 tax reform affected investment through many channels. I use a macroeconomic model to estimate the overall effect. That estimate suggests that, because the different provisions worked in different directions, the initial impact of the tax reform on investment was small. The same model predicts that the tax reform will hold investment down in the medium term.
{"title":"The Effect of the 2017 Tax Reform on Investment","authors":"Filippo Occhino","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202017","url":null,"abstract":"The 2017 tax reform affected investment through many channels. I use a macroeconomic model to estimate the overall effect. That estimate suggests that, because the different provisions worked in different directions, the initial impact of the tax reform on investment was small. The same model predicts that the tax reform will hold investment down in the medium term.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130667564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical studies find that the link between inflation and economic slack has weakened in recent decades, a development that could hamper monetary policymakers as they aim to achieve their inflation objective. We show that while the role of economic slack has diminished, economic growth has become a significant driver of inflation dynamics, indicating that the link between inflation and economic activity remains but the relevant gauge of activity has changed. The new evidence suggests that the ongoing COVID-19-related recession could induce substantial disinflationary pressure.
{"title":"A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve","authors":"Kristen N. Tauber, Willem Van Zandweghe","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202016","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical studies find that the link between inflation and economic slack has weakened in recent decades, a development that could hamper monetary policymakers as they aim to achieve their inflation objective. We show that while the role of economic slack has diminished, economic growth has become a significant driver of inflation dynamics, indicating that the link between inflation and economic activity remains but the relevant gauge of activity has changed. The new evidence suggests that the ongoing COVID-19-related recession could induce substantial disinflationary pressure.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122958979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As the Federal Reserve has become more transparent about its decisions on the federal funds target rate, the general public has begun to regard the rate as not only a benchmark interest rate, but also as a signal about the state of the economy. However, the specific information considered by the public to be revealed is not clearly understood. We investigate this question and find that the information revealed by monetary policy decisions is regarding future output growth, not inflation, and that such an information effect is theoretically optimal and does not make interest-rate policies self-defeating.
{"title":"The Information Effect of Monetary Policy: Self-Defeating or Optimal?","authors":"Wesley Janson, Chengcheng Jia","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202015","url":null,"abstract":"As the Federal Reserve has become more transparent about its decisions on the federal funds target rate, the general public has begun to regard the rate as not only a benchmark interest rate, but also as a signal about the state of the economy. However, the specific information considered by the public to be revealed is not clearly understood. We investigate this question and find that the information revealed by monetary policy decisions is regarding future output growth, not inflation, and that such an information effect is theoretically optimal and does not make interest-rate policies self-defeating.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128157725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many observers seeking historical precedent for COVID-19 draw on the 1918 influenza pandemic. In this Commentary, we highlight the differences between the 1918 flu and COVID-19 pandemics in terms of the most significantly affected populations. We also show key differences in the US economy in the late 1910s and now. Not only did the 1918 influenza virus primarily affect significantly younger cohorts, but the US economy’s industry and geographic distributions were notably different at the time compared to today’s. Consequently, caution is needed when using the 1918 influenza pandemic as a guideline for implementing and evaluating policy responses to COVID-19.
{"title":"The 1918 Flu and COVID-19 Pandemics: Different Patients, Different Economy","authors":"Ross Cohen-Kristiansen, R. Pinheiro","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202013","url":null,"abstract":"Many observers seeking historical precedent for COVID-19 draw on the 1918 influenza pandemic. In this Commentary, we highlight the differences between the 1918 flu and COVID-19 pandemics in terms of the most significantly affected populations. We also show key differences in the US economy in the late 1910s and now. Not only did the 1918 influenza virus primarily affect significantly younger cohorts, but the US economy’s industry and geographic distributions were notably different at the time compared to today’s. Consequently, caution is needed when using the 1918 influenza pandemic as a guideline for implementing and evaluating policy responses to COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124730930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rates of US homeownership have declined in the past two decades, and the decline has been especially pronounced for young adults. Motivated by recent research that explores the ways in which personal experiences can affect financial attitudes and beliefs, we explore whether the negative homeownership experiences of parents during the 2008 financial crisis could have caused their children to view homeownership less favorably. We find that parental mortgage distress negatively correlates with the probability that a child will purchase a home, and we explore various channels through which this link may occur.
{"title":"Intergenerational Homeownership and Mortgage Distress","authors":"Nicholas T. Fritsch, Rawley Z. Heimer","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202012","url":null,"abstract":"Rates of US homeownership have declined in the past two decades, and the decline has been especially pronounced for young adults. Motivated by recent research that explores the ways in which personal experiences can affect financial attitudes and beliefs, we explore whether the negative homeownership experiences of parents during the 2008 financial crisis could have caused their children to view homeownership less favorably. We find that parental mortgage distress negatively correlates with the probability that a child will purchase a home, and we explore various channels through which this link may occur.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115007817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Various measures of the labor-market skills of foreign-born workers have improved during the past decade. The largest gains are concentrated among immigrants from Mexico, who traditionally have shown the lowest skill levels among foreign-born workers. The data suggest that the apparent increase in skills is the result of a shift in the distribution of immigrants coming to the United States, with increased immigration of workers from Asia and a precipitous decline in immigration of workers from Mexico.
{"title":"The Labor-Market Skills of Foreign-born Workers in the United States, 2007–2017","authors":"Rubén Hernández-Murillo","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202010","url":null,"abstract":"Various measures of the labor-market skills of foreign-born workers have improved during the past decade. The largest gains are concentrated among immigrants from Mexico, who traditionally have shown the lowest skill levels among foreign-born workers. The data suggest that the apparent increase in skills is the result of a shift in the distribution of immigrants coming to the United States, with increased immigration of workers from Asia and a precipitous decline in immigration of workers from Mexico.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121661720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent.
{"title":"The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?","authors":"A. Sahin, Murat Tasci, Jin Yan","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202009","url":null,"abstract":"We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123002107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Edward S. Knotek, Raphael S. Schoenle, Alexander M. Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller, K. O. R. Myrseth, Michael Weber
We summarize the results from an ongoing survey that asks consumers questions related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, including their expectations for how the economy is likely to be affected by the outbreak and how their own behavior has changed in response to it. The survey began in early March, providing a window into how consumers’ responses have evolved in real time since the early days of the acknowledged spread of COVID-19 in the United States. In updating and charting the survey’s findings on the Cleveland Fed’s website going forward, we seek to inform policymakers and researchers about consumers’ beliefs during a time of high uncertainty and unprecedented policy responses.
{"title":"Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Raphael S. Schoenle, Alexander M. Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller, K. O. R. Myrseth, Michael Weber","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202008","url":null,"abstract":"We summarize the results from an ongoing survey that asks consumers questions related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, including their expectations for how the economy is likely to be affected by the outbreak and how their own behavior has changed in response to it. The survey began in early March, providing a window into how consumers’ responses have evolved in real time since the early days of the acknowledged spread of COVID-19 in the United States. In updating and charting the survey’s findings on the Cleveland Fed’s website going forward, we seek to inform policymakers and researchers about consumers’ beliefs during a time of high uncertainty and unprecedented policy responses.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122342084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst were prolific and prominent research economists who, until their untimely deaths a few years ago, were long-associated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Their myriad contributions include the incorporation of financial market imperfections into macroeconomic models and the study of optimal monetary policy. We provide an overview of their work and summarize a few key themes from a research conference held in their honor.
查尔斯•卡尔斯特罗姆(Charles Carlstrom)和蒂莫西•富尔斯特(Timothy Fuerst)都是多产的杰出研究经济学家，直到几年前英年早逝之前，他们一直与克利夫兰联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)有长期的联系。他们的贡献数不胜数，包括将金融市场缺陷纳入宏观经济模型，以及研究最优货币政策。我们概述了他们的工作，并总结了为纪念他们而举行的一次研究会议的几个关键主题。
{"title":"Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst","authors":"Todd E. Clark, Matthias O. Paustian, Eric R. Sims","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202007","url":null,"abstract":"Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst were prolific and prominent research economists who, until their untimely deaths a few years ago, were long-associated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Their myriad contributions include the incorporation of financial market imperfections into macroeconomic models and the study of optimal monetary policy. We provide an overview of their work and summarize a few key themes from a research conference held in their honor.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126266090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern capital requirements can appear to be overly complex, but they reflect centuries of practical experience, compromises between different regulators, and legal and financial systems that developed over time. This Commentary provides a historical perspective on current discussions of capital requirements by looking at how the understanding of bank capital and the regulations regarding its use have changed over time.
{"title":"A Brief History of Bank Capital Requirements in the United States","authors":"Joseph G. Haubrich","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202005","url":null,"abstract":"Modern capital requirements can appear to be overly complex, but they reflect centuries of practical experience, compromises between different regulators, and legal and financial systems that developed over time. This Commentary provides a historical perspective on current discussions of capital requirements by looking at how the understanding of bank capital and the regulations regarding its use have changed over time.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116040487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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