One potential threat to a stable financial system is the phenomenon of contagion, where a risk that is ordinarily small becomes a problem because of the way it spreads to other institutions. Researchers have investigated multiple channels through which contagion might occur. We look at two--banks borrowing from each other and banks holding similar types of assets--and argue that the latter is a potential source of systemic risk. We review recent data on asset concentrations and capitalization levels of the largest US banks and conclude that the overall risk from this particular contagion channel is at present likely limited.
{"title":"Asset Commonality in US Banks and Financial Stability","authors":"Jan-Peter Siedlarek, Nicholas T. Fritsch","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201901","url":null,"abstract":"One potential threat to a stable financial system is the phenomenon of contagion, where a risk that is ordinarily small becomes a problem because of the way it spreads to other institutions. Researchers have investigated multiple channels through which contagion might occur. We look at two--banks borrowing from each other and banks holding similar types of assets--and argue that the latter is a potential source of systemic risk. We review recent data on asset concentrations and capitalization levels of the largest US banks and conclude that the overall risk from this particular contagion channel is at present likely limited.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125912871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We have previously shown that young adults who live near their parents experience faster earnings recoveries after a job loss than young adults who live farther from their parents. In this analysis, we present evidence that demonstrates the relationship is causal; that is, there is something about living close to one’s parents that enables one to find another job that pays as well as the one lost. We also explore what type of parental help might be driving the relationship and find that it is possibly the provision of childcare and access to job networks, but likely not help with housing expenses.
{"title":"Parental Assistance after Job Losses","authors":"Patrick Coate, Pawel M. Krolikowski, Mike Zabek","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201807","url":null,"abstract":"We have previously shown that young adults who live near their parents experience faster earnings recoveries after a job loss than young adults who live farther from their parents. In this analysis, we present evidence that demonstrates the relationship is causal; that is, there is something about living close to one’s parents that enables one to find another job that pays as well as the one lost. We also explore what type of parental help might be driving the relationship and find that it is possibly the provision of childcare and access to job networks, but likely not help with housing expenses.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128246820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions. In all three cases, professional forecasters failed to predict the magnitude of the rise in short-term interest rates. Prior to the 2008–2009 recession, forecasters also overpredicted long-term interest rates.
{"title":"Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?","authors":"Kurt G. Lunsford","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201806","url":null,"abstract":"An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions. In all three cases, professional forecasters failed to predict the magnitude of the rise in short-term interest rates. Prior to the 2008–2009 recession, forecasters also overpredicted long-term interest rates.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"2015 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132669606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1994-02-01DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-19940201
M. Schweitzer, M. Dupuy
In recent years, U.S. service-producing industries have, on net, added jobs more rapidly than the goods-producing industries. Since the end of 1990, jobs in the service-producing sector have increased 4.1 percent overall, while goods-producing employment has shrunk 5.6 percent." During the same period, total nonfarm employment has risen 1.9 percent. A number of commentators have used these basic statistics to paint a bleak picture: The economy is creating some new jobs and employing a few more people, but only in low-wage service positions; meanwhile, the old high-wage manufacturing jobs are disappearing.
{"title":"Are Service-Sector Jobs Inferior?","authors":"M. Schweitzer, M. Dupuy","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-19940201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-19940201","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, U.S. service-producing industries have, on net, added jobs more rapidly than the goods-producing industries. Since the end of 1990, jobs in the service-producing sector have increased 4.1 percent overall, while goods-producing employment has shrunk 5.6 percent.\" During the same period, total nonfarm employment has risen 1.9 percent. A number of commentators have used these basic statistics to paint a bleak picture: The economy is creating some new jobs and employing a few more people, but only in low-wage service positions; meanwhile, the old high-wage manufacturing jobs are disappearing.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1994-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116801566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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