Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.201022.001
Li-Yuan Liu
{"title":"Five Supplementary Therapies for COVID-19","authors":"Li-Yuan Liu","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.201022.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201022.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"17 1","pages":"97-100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73508366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.201014.001
Piers Fleming, Harry England
Hazard identification is a crucial first step in risk assessment. There are many cases in which hazard identification is carried out by non-experts. One concern is that valid hazards are overlooked and so not considered for mitigation or prevention. This study examined whether a goal-setting anchor could encourage the identification of more hazards and so reduce the likelihood that they are overlooked. Seventy-two participants were recruited to an online study to identify hazards in four vignettes. The participants were randomly allocated to a high or low anchor condition in which they were told that experts typically identify at least two or at least eight hazards. Participants also completed a five-factor personality measure. It was found that, compared to the low anchor, the high anchor increased word count, time on task and number of hazards identified. The effect of the anchor on hazards identified was robust even taking into account personality, time on task and word count. Conscientiousness was also associated with identifying more hazards. Overall, the use of anchors
{"title":"Anchor-based Goals and Personality Effects on Hazard Identification in Risk Assessment","authors":"Piers Fleming, Harry England","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.201014.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201014.001","url":null,"abstract":"Hazard identification is a crucial first step in risk assessment. There are many cases in which hazard identification is carried out by non-experts. One concern is that valid hazards are overlooked and so not considered for mitigation or prevention. This study examined whether a goal-setting anchor could encourage the identification of more hazards and so reduce the likelihood that they are overlooked. Seventy-two participants were recruited to an online study to identify hazards in four vignettes. The participants were randomly allocated to a high or low anchor condition in which they were told that experts typically identify at least two or at least eight hazards. Participants also completed a five-factor personality measure. It was found that, compared to the low anchor, the high anchor increased word count, time on task and number of hazards identified. The effect of the anchor on hazards identified was robust even taking into account personality, time on task and word count. Conscientiousness was also associated with identifying more hazards. Overall, the use of anchors","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78390036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influencing Factors of Equity Financing Efficiency of the Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industry Based on Baidu Index","authors":"Zhi-yuan Lü, Mu Zhang","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.201028.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201028.001","url":null,"abstract":"为进一步提高战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资效率,本文选取2014-2018年208家战略性新兴产业上市公司相关数 据,通过DEA-Malmquist模型计算出规模效率变动、纯技术效率变动和全要素生产率变动并将三者作为股权融资效率 的代表变量,同时运用Tobit模型对所选取的资产负债率、应收账款周转率和子产业网络关注度等11个变量的年增长 率进行分析,找出其中影响显著的变量。研究结果表明:在相关的年增长率变量中,子产业网络关注度对战略性新 兴产业上市公司股权融资规模效率变动、纯技术效率变动和全要素生产率变动都有显著影响,其中对规模效率变动 的影响是负向的,但资产负债率、资产报酬率、总资产、无形资产、日收益波动率和前三名高管薪酬对三者都无显 著影响;应收账款周转率、净利润增长率只对战略性新兴产业上市公司股权融资规模效率变动和全要素生产率变动 有显著正向影响,而股权集中度只对二者有显著负向影响;综合杠杆和资产报酬率这两个变量前者只对全要素生产 率变动有显著负向影响,后者只对纯技术效率变动产生显著正向影响。得出结论为:对于战略性新兴产业上市公司 股权融资效率的影响因素中除常见的财务指标和非财务指标外,百度指数大数据指标作用凸显。.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85793093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.201014.002
Cheng-Kuang Wu, Y. Chuang
With the globalization of supply chain management, organizations have to find ways to reduce costs through global sourcing, to increase their competitive advantage. Supplier evaluation or selection plays an important role in the manufacturing process, particularly when the available budget is restricted in manufacturer expenditures. Each enterprise might have its supplier selection criteria, and from these criteria devise their method of selection [1]. Each supply chain includes a number of manufacturers, with finite budgets, which need to be allocated to all suppliers in all parts of the manufacturing process. Some manufacturers are faced with budgetary limitations. Each manufacturer has multiple suppliers each of which in turn possesses different specific capabilities (such as delivery performance and cost of manufacturing). Supply Chain Management (SCM) is thus needed to perform a feasible allocation of suppliers during manufacturing process flows.
{"title":"Game Theoretic Strategies for Supplier Capability \u0000Assessment and Manufacturing Order Allocation","authors":"Cheng-Kuang Wu, Y. Chuang","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.201014.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.201014.002","url":null,"abstract":"With the globalization of supply chain management, organizations have to find ways to reduce costs through global sourcing, to increase their competitive advantage. Supplier evaluation or selection plays an important role in the manufacturing process, particularly when the available budget is restricted in manufacturer expenditures. Each enterprise might have its supplier selection criteria, and from these criteria devise their method of selection [1]. Each supply chain includes a number of manufacturers, with finite budgets, which need to be allocated to all suppliers in all parts of the manufacturing process. Some manufacturers are faced with budgetary limitations. Each manufacturer has multiple suppliers each of which in turn possesses different specific capabilities (such as delivery performance and cost of manufacturing). Supply Chain Management (SCM) is thus needed to perform a feasible allocation of suppliers during manufacturing process flows.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87232101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.200923.001
J. Santos-Reyes
Natural hazards in combination with a community that lacked an adequate preparation for such events, have caused a considerable damage to people, property, and economical losses [1,2]. For example, those communities in seismic prone regions, worldwide, are vulnerable to earthquakes given the fact that they lack earthquake resistant homes, earthquake early warning systems, among others [1,2] (i.e., earthquakes still cannot be predicted [3,4]).
{"title":"Multi-hazard Awareness, Risk Perception and Fear to Earthquakes: The Case of High-school Students in Mexico City","authors":"J. Santos-Reyes","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200923.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200923.001","url":null,"abstract":"Natural hazards in combination with a community that lacked an adequate preparation for such events, have caused a considerable damage to people, property, and economical losses [1,2]. For example, those communities in seismic prone regions, worldwide, are vulnerable to earthquakes given the fact that they lack earthquake resistant homes, earthquake early warning systems, among others [1,2] (i.e., earthquakes still cannot be predicted [3,4]).","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"57 1","pages":"91-96"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84880153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.200714.001
L. Pang, Zhiwen Zhang, Kai Yang, P. Lv, Siheng Sun
China is a developing country with rapid economic growth. However, large numbers of safety accidents happen every year due to various reasons like unbalanced economic development between provinces and insufficient economic or technical investment. Not only have frequent safety accidents casted adverse effects on the rapid development of China’s national economy, but they have also resulted in enormous economic losses. Explosions are accidents with high fatality and disability rates among all the safety accidents. For example, there were 493 fatal accidents in China in 2018, 51 or 10.35% of which were explosion accidents. Of the 1860 deaths caused, 198 died in explosion accidents, which accounted for 10.65% of the total.
{"title":"Patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents in China","authors":"L. Pang, Zhiwen Zhang, Kai Yang, P. Lv, Siheng Sun","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200714.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200714.001","url":null,"abstract":"China is a developing country with rapid economic growth. However, large numbers of safety accidents happen every year due to various reasons like unbalanced economic development between provinces and insufficient economic or technical investment. Not only have frequent safety accidents casted adverse effects on the rapid development of China’s national economy, but they have also resulted in enormous economic losses. Explosions are accidents with high fatality and disability rates among all the safety accidents. For example, there were 493 fatal accidents in China in 2018, 51 or 10.35% of which were explosion accidents. Of the 1860 deaths caused, 198 died in explosion accidents, which accounted for 10.65% of the total.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75474117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.200725.001
Xing Kaicheng, L. Hongyu, Ma Gui-hong, Jin Yuanyuan, Yang Ming, Huang Dapeng
{"title":"Research on Public Health Security Risk Management and Emergency Response Measures under Climate Change","authors":"Xing Kaicheng, L. Hongyu, Ma Gui-hong, Jin Yuanyuan, Yang Ming, Huang Dapeng","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200725.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200725.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"111 1","pages":"77-85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85397044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001
刘. Xinying馨营Liu, 李. Hang航Li, 胡. Xiaobing小兵Hu
关键词 黑天鹅事件 事件分析 影响扩散树 事件判定 坠机 ABSTRACT The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics. This method of direct judgment by definition is one-sided and inaccurate, which is not conducive to the development and maturity of research on black swan events. Therefore, this paper solved the problem of whether a method can be used to quantitatively determine whether an event can be called a black swan event before it is defined as a black swan event. This paper proposes a set of analysis methods to determine the black swan event by constructing an impact-spread tree. This method first defines the type of event, analyzes the possible impact range of the event, and draws it into a tree structure. Then, according to the development law of the event, analyzes the impact spread relationship between nodes in the tree structure, and establishes the influence diffusion tree of the event. Finally, by analyzing the impact spread ratio of the event, determine whether it is a black swan event. The case study shows that the method of impactspread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events.
{"title":"An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree","authors":"刘. Xinying馨营Liu, 李. Hang航Li, 胡. Xiaobing小兵Hu","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001","url":null,"abstract":"关键词 黑天鹅事件 事件分析 影响扩散树 事件判定 坠机 ABSTRACT The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics. This method of direct judgment by definition is one-sided and inaccurate, which is not conducive to the development and maturity of research on black swan events. Therefore, this paper solved the problem of whether a method can be used to quantitatively determine whether an event can be called a black swan event before it is defined as a black swan event. This paper proposes a set of analysis methods to determine the black swan event by constructing an impact-spread tree. This method first defines the type of event, analyzes the possible impact range of the event, and draws it into a tree structure. Then, according to the development law of the event, analyzes the impact spread relationship between nodes in the tree structure, and establishes the influence diffusion tree of the event. Finally, by analyzing the impact spread ratio of the event, determine whether it is a black swan event. The case study shows that the method of impactspread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"2 1","pages":"64-68"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74308506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.2991/jracr.k.200709.001
Mu Zhang, Xiao-nan Huang, Chang-bing Yang
Sales forecasting refers to the estimation of sales quantity and sales amount of all products or specific products in a specific time in the future [1]. Sales forecasting is based on the full consideration of various influence factors in the future, combined with the actual sales performance of enterprises, through certain analysis methods to put forward practical sales objectives. Through sales forecasting, the initiative of sales staff can be mobilized, and the products can be sold as soon as possible, so as to complete the transformation from use value to value. Meanwhile, the enterprises can set production by sales, arrange production according to sales forecasting data, and avoid overstock of products. It can be seen that the accurate and reliable sales forecasting is of great significance to the formulation of enterprises marketing plan, safety inventory, normal operation of cash flow and so on.
{"title":"A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects","authors":"Mu Zhang, Xiao-nan Huang, Chang-bing Yang","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.200709.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200709.001","url":null,"abstract":"Sales forecasting refers to the estimation of sales quantity and sales amount of all products or specific products in a specific time in the future [1]. Sales forecasting is based on the full consideration of various influence factors in the future, combined with the actual sales performance of enterprises, through certain analysis methods to put forward practical sales objectives. Through sales forecasting, the initiative of sales staff can be mobilized, and the products can be sold as soon as possible, so as to complete the transformation from use value to value. Meanwhile, the enterprises can set production by sales, arrange production according to sales forecasting data, and avoid overstock of products. It can be seen that the accurate and reliable sales forecasting is of great significance to the formulation of enterprises marketing plan, safety inventory, normal operation of cash flow and so on.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82292557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.2991/JRACR.K.200714.002
Fengying Zhang, Jianhui Kong, Xiaofeng Xie, Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
{"title":"Research on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 Risk in Long-term Care Facilities based on Prospect Theory","authors":"Fengying Zhang, Jianhui Kong, Xiaofeng Xie, Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou","doi":"10.2991/JRACR.K.200714.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/JRACR.K.200714.002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"36 1","pages":"37-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81318227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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