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Forecasting foreign exchange rate: Use of FbProphet 预测外汇汇率:FbProphet的使用
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568284
Fanoon Raheem, Nihla Iqbal
Foreign exchange rate prediction can be considered crucial in today's world. The exchange rate of a country plays a vital role in its economic growth. The Central Bank of a country holds the authority in managing the exchange rate and its policies. The study predicts the foreign exchange rate of American Dollar to Sri Lankan Rupee using FbProphet model; a time-series forecasting model developed and introduced by Facebook. The daily exchange rate values for USD/LKR were obtained and the values are predicted for another twenty-four months starting from November 2020. R Squared value is calculated to verify the fitting of the model and the value is 0.98, which indicates that the model for prediction very well fits for the data set used. And further, Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Error are calculated to measure the performance of the model. These metric measurements show that the model is appropriate for the data set which has been selected for the research study.
在当今世界,外汇汇率预测被认为是至关重要的。汇率对一个国家的经济增长起着至关重要的作用。一个国家的中央银行拥有管理汇率及其政策的权力。本研究使用FbProphet模型预测美元对斯里兰卡卢比的汇率;这是Facebook开发并引入的时间序列预测模型。获得了美元/斯里兰卡卢比的每日汇率值,并预测了从2020年11月开始的另外24个月的汇率值。计算R平方值验证模型的拟合性,其值为0.98,表明预测模型与所使用的数据集拟合得很好。进一步,计算均方误差和平均绝对误差来衡量模型的性能。这些度量测量表明,该模型是合适的数据集,已选择为研究研究。
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引用次数: 3
Framework to mitigate supply chain disruptions in the apparel industry during an epidemic outbreak 在流行病爆发期间减轻服装行业供应链中断的框架
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568286
M. Perera, A. Wijayanayake, S. Peter
Disruptions to a company supply chain, has serious implications, and if not addressed lead to even business closure. The article explores the supply chain risks faced by the apparel industry during an epidemic outbreak and the strategies that could be taken to mitigate them. A systematic review of the literature was initially conducted to identify the supply chain risks and mitigation strategies, and expert interviews were then used to reinforce the findings and then identify the focus areas. Supply chain risks were mapped in a vulnerability matrix with risk association, using a diagrammatic format, and a framework was developed using the supply chain risks and strategies. The developed framework shows that most of the risks can be mitigated by local sourcing and giving incentives to customers. A generalized model was developed based on cost and time considerations but using the same process it can be customized using different factors and risks depending on the experience and needs of the company.
对公司供应链的破坏具有严重的影响,如果不加以解决,甚至会导致业务关闭。本文探讨了服装行业在疫情爆发期间面临的供应链风险以及可以采取的缓解风险的策略。最初对文献进行了系统审查,以确定供应链风险和缓解战略,然后使用专家访谈来加强调查结果,然后确定重点领域。采用图表形式将供应链风险映射到具有风险关联的脆弱性矩阵中,并利用供应链风险和策略开发了一个框架。已开发的框架表明,大多数风险可以通过本地采购和向客户提供激励措施来减轻。基于成本和时间的考虑,开发了一个通用模型,但使用相同的过程,可以根据公司的经验和需求使用不同的因素和风险进行定制。
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引用次数: 1
Autism spectrum disorder diagnosis support model using Inception V3 使用Inception V3的自闭症谱系障碍诊断支持模型
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568314
Lakmini Herath, D. Meedeniya, M. A. J. C. Marasingha, V. Weerasinghe
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is one of the most common neurodevelopment disorders that severely affect patients in performing their day-to-day activities and social interactions. Early and accurate diagnosis can help decide the correct therapeutic adaptations for the patients to lead an almost normal life. The present practices of diagnosis of ASD are highly subjective and time-consuming. Today, as a popular solution, understanding abnormalities in brain functions using brain imagery such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), is being performed using machine learning. This study presents a transfer learning-based approach using Inception v3 for ASD classification with fMRI data. The approach transforms the raw 4D fMRI dataset to 2D epi, stat map, and glass brain images. The classification results show higher accuracy values with pre-trained weights. Thus, the pre-trained ImageNet models with transfer learning provides a viable solution for diagnosing ASD from fMRI images.
自闭症谱系障碍(ASD)是最常见的神经发育障碍之一,严重影响患者的日常活动和社会交往。早期和准确的诊断可以帮助决定正确的治疗适应,使患者过上几乎正常的生活。目前自闭症谱系障碍的诊断是高度主观和耗时的。今天,作为一种流行的解决方案,使用脑成像(如功能性磁共振成像(fMRI))来理解大脑功能异常,正在使用机器学习来执行。本研究提出了一种基于迁移学习的方法,使用Inception v3对fMRI数据进行ASD分类。该方法将原始的4D fMRI数据集转换为2D epi,统计图和玻璃脑图像。预训练权值的分类结果显示出更高的准确率值。因此,带迁移学习的预训练ImageNet模型为从fMRI图像诊断ASD提供了一种可行的解决方案。
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引用次数: 2
Model to optimize the quantities of delivery products prioritizing the sustainability performance 模型优化交付产品的数量,优先考虑可持续性绩效
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568360
A. P. K. J. Prabodhika, D. Niwunhella, A. Wijayanayake
Many manufacturers and retailers often outsource their logistics functions to Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) to focus more on their core business process. Due to the competitiveness and the popularity of the sustainability concept, those organizations evaluate their prospective LSPs not only based on economic aspects like cost, service quality but also on social and environmental aspects as well when selecting LSPs. This paper proposes a methodology that can be used by organizations when evaluating and selecting LSPs based on their sustainability performance. Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used in evaluating the LSPs' sustainable performance since multiple dimensions and indicators need to be incorporated when measuring the sustainability performance. A Linear Programming Problem (LPP) model was proposed which allows the organizations to decide both desired number of LSPs and the volume to be allocated for those selected LSPs. The proposed methodology is flexible as it depends on the sustain ability requirements of the organization when selecting LSPs. Both the indicators and their relative importance are up to the organization to decide.
许多制造商和零售商经常将其物流功能外包给物流服务提供商(lsp),以便更多地关注其核心业务流程。由于竞争力和可持续性概念的普及,这些组织在选择lsp时不仅基于成本,服务质量等经济方面,而且还基于社会和环境方面来评估他们未来的lsp。本文提出了一种方法,可以由组织在评估和选择基于其可持续性绩效的lsp时使用。分析网络过程(ANP)用于评估lsp的可持续绩效,因为在测量可持续绩效时需要纳入多个维度和指标。提出了一种线性规划问题(LPP)模型,该模型允许组织决定所需的lsp数量和为所选择的lsp分配的容量。所建议的方法是灵活的,因为它取决于组织在选择lsp时的可持续性要求。指标和它们的相对重要性都由组织来决定。
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引用次数: 1
Decision-making models for a resilient supply chain in FMCG companies during a pandemic: A systematic literature review 大流行期间快速消费品公司弹性供应链的决策模型:系统文献综述
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568303
B. Madhavi, Ruwan Wickramarachchi
Decision-making during a crisis impacts the performance of an entire organization. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations had undergone supply chain disruptions due to the forward and backward propagation of disruptions in the global supply chain networks, implying the importance of building up resilience in the supply chain networks. This study intends to systematically review the existing literature to determine the impact of optimal decision-making during crises to build up supply chain resilience. The paper has focused on the need for evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the FMCG industry and how supply chain resilience would improve in performance during such crises. The study also assessed the existing decision support systems for resilience in a supply chain network and their applicability during a crisis. Some of these models could be used to facilitate decision-making during an epidemic as well. Precisely determining resilience factors affected during an unexpected circumstance would enhance the value of the decision support system in use. Furthermore, it was concluded that the use of quantitative models should be further investigated, as most published work focuses on the conceptualization of a restricted number of resilience factors instead of the development of integrated, comprehensive approaches.
危机中的决策会影响整个组织的绩效。由于COVID-19大流行,由于全球供应链网络中的中断正向和反向传播,许多组织经历了供应链中断,这意味着在供应链网络中建立弹性的重要性。本研究旨在系统回顾现有文献,以确定危机期间最优决策对建立供应链弹性的影响。本文重点讨论了评估COVID-19大流行对快速消费品行业影响的必要性,以及在此类危机期间供应链弹性将如何提高绩效。该研究还评估了现有的供应链网络弹性决策支持系统及其在危机期间的适用性。其中一些模型也可用于促进流行病期间的决策。准确地确定受意外情况影响的弹性因素将提高决策支持系统的使用价值。此外,结论是定量模型的使用应进一步研究,因为大多数已发表的工作侧重于将有限数量的弹性因素概念化,而不是开发综合综合的方法。
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引用次数: 5
Technology-enabled online aggregated market for smallholder farmers to obtain enhanced farm-gate prices 技术支持的在线综合市场使小农获得更高的农场价格
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568292
Malni Kumarathunga, R. Calheiros, A. Ginige
Using scenario transformation methodology, we identified four scenarios that indicated a lack of trusted parties to sell harvest has forced smallholder farmers to sell the harvest to brokers who often collect the harvest at the farm gate at the lowest possible prices and sell in the market for large profits. As blockchain smart contracts provide a mechanism to reduce risk and establish trust between unknown trading partners, we transformed these into a scenario that establishes trust between farmer and unknown broker using smart contracts, generating a trust-enabled market. This scenario enables farmers to search for the optimum farm-gate price without relying on known brokers. The scenario is further enhanced to enable a Many-one-Many market linkage, facilitating automatic aggregated marketing. The paper presents the functional prototype of the scenario, explaining the functionality of the transformed system.
使用情景转换方法,我们确定了四种情景,表明缺乏可信赖的当事方出售收获迫使小农将收获出售给经纪人,经纪人通常在农场门口以尽可能低的价格收集收获,并在市场上出售以获得高额利润。由于区块链智能合约提供了一种降低风险和在未知交易伙伴之间建立信任的机制,我们将这些机制转化为一个场景,使用智能合约在农民和未知经纪人之间建立信任,从而产生一个信任的市场。这种情况使农民能够在不依赖已知经纪人的情况下寻找最优的农场收购价。该场景得到进一步增强,以实现多一对多市场链接,促进自动聚合营销。本文给出了该场景的功能原型,说明了转换后的系统的功能。
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引用次数: 4
Automatic road traffic signs detection and recognition using ‘You Only Look Once’ version 4 (YOLOv4) 使用“你只看一次”版本4 (YOLOv4)自动检测和识别道路交通标志
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568285
W. H. D. Fernando, S. Sotheeswaran
This paper presents an approach to detect traffic signs using You Only Look Once version 4 (YOLOv4) model. The traffic sign detection and recognition system (TSDR) play an essential role in the intelligent transportation system (ITS). TSDR can be utilized for driver assistance and, eventually, driverless cars to reduce accidents. When driving an automobile, the driver's attention is usually drawn to the road. On the other hand, most traffic signs are situated on the side of the road, which may have contributed to the collision. TSDR allows drivers to view traffic sign information without having to divert their attention. Due to the existence of a large background, clutter, fluctuating degrees of illumination, varying sizes of traffic signs, and changing weather conditions, TSDR is an important but difficult process in intelligent transport systems. Many efforts have been made to find answers to the major issues that they face. The objective of this study addresses road traffic sign detection and recognition using a technique that initially detects the bounding box of a traffic sign. Then the detected traffic sign will be recognized for usage in a speeded-up process. Since safe driving necessitates real-time traffic sign detection, the YOLOv4 network was employed in this research. YOLOv4 was evaluated on our dataset, which consisted of manual annotations to identify 43 distinctive traffic signs classes. It was able to achieve an average recognition accuracy of 84.7%. Overall, the work adds by presenting a basic yet effective model for real-time detection and recognition of traffic signs.
本文提出了一种使用You Only Look Once version 4 (YOLOv4)模型检测交通标志的方法。交通标志检测与识别系统(TSDR)在智能交通系统(ITS)中起着至关重要的作用。TSDR可以用于驾驶员辅助,并最终用于无人驾驶汽车,以减少事故。驾驶汽车时,司机的注意力通常被吸引到道路上。另一方面,大多数交通标志都位于道路的一侧,这可能是导致碰撞的原因。TSDR允许司机在不转移注意力的情况下查看交通标志信息。由于存在大背景、杂波、光照程度波动、交通标志大小变化以及天气条件的变化,TSDR是智能交通系统中一个重要但困难的过程。为解决他们所面临的重大问题作出了许多努力。本研究的目的是利用一种最初检测交通标志边界框的技术来解决道路交通标志的检测和识别问题。然后,检测到的交通标志将被识别并加速使用。由于安全驾驶需要实时检测交通标志,因此本研究采用了YOLOv4网络。YOLOv4在我们的数据集上进行了评估,该数据集由手动注释组成,以识别43种不同的交通标志类别。平均识别准确率达到84.7%。总的来说,该工作通过提出一个基本而有效的模型来实时检测和识别交通标志。
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引用次数: 2
Challenges for adopting DevOps in information technology projects 在信息技术项目中采用DevOps的挑战
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568348
J. Jayakody, W. Wijayanayake
An Information Technology (IT) project deals with IT infrastructure, information systems, or computers for delivering an IT product within a temporary period. Proper application of software development methodologies assists software designers to run IT projects to the success of achieving the satisfaction of project stakeholders. Because of the issues raised by traditional software development methodologies such as the Waterfall model, the IT industry began to employ Agile methodology for IT project management. However, due to the separation of software development and operation teams, Agile methodology also caused problems. DevOps is a new approach adapted to the Agile methodology that collaborates the software development and operation teams in order to provide continuous development of high-quality software in a short period of time. However, there are practical issues reported since DevOps approach is still in its infancy in the IT industry. The purpose of this research is to analyze the use of the DevOps concept in IT Projects by evaluating the challenges and mitigating strategies practiced by software development firms in order to ensure the success of IT projects. This purpose was achieved by performing a literature study and soliciting recommendations from industry professionals using a questionnaire survey. The findings reveal the critical challenges and prioritization of challenges experienced by software firms while adopting DevOps, as well as their practices for overcoming those challenges. The research findings will help IT project development teams and future researchers to develop strategies for making the success of DevOps adoption with Agile methodology in the IT industry.
信息技术(IT)项目处理IT基础设施、信息系统或计算机,以便在临时期限内交付IT产品。正确应用软件开发方法可以帮助软件设计人员成功地运行IT项目,使项目涉众满意。由于传统软件开发方法(如瀑布模型)引起的问题,IT行业开始采用敏捷方法进行IT项目管理。然而,由于软件开发团队和运维团队的分离,敏捷方法也带来了问题。DevOps是一种适应于敏捷方法的新方法,它可以协作软件开发和运维团队,以便在短时间内提供高质量软件的持续开发。然而,由于DevOps方法在IT行业仍处于起步阶段,因此报告了一些实际问题。本研究的目的是通过评估软件开发公司为确保IT项目的成功而实施的挑战和缓解策略,来分析DevOps概念在IT项目中的使用。这一目的是通过进行文献研究和使用问卷调查征求行业专业人士的建议来实现的。调查结果揭示了软件公司在采用DevOps时所面临的关键挑战和优先级,以及他们克服这些挑战的实践。研究结果将帮助IT项目开发团队和未来的研究人员制定策略,使敏捷方法在IT行业的DevOps采用取得成功。
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引用次数: 10
LYZGen: A mechanism to generate leads from Generation Y and Z by analysing web and social media data LYZGen:通过分析网络和社交媒体数据,为Y世代和Z世代创造潜在客户的机制
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568333
J. M. D. Senanayake, Nadeeka Pathirana
Identifying an appropriate target audience is essential to market a product or a service. A proper mechanism should be followed to generate these potential leads and target audiences. The majority of people who were born between 1981 and 2012 hold top positions in companies. These people are regular social media and website users, since they represent generations Y and Z. They usually keep digital footprints. Therefore, if an accurate method is followed, it is possible to identify potential contact points by analysing publicly available data. In this research, a novel lead generation mechanism based on analysing social media and web data has been proposed and named L YZGen (Leads of $Y$ and $Z$ Generations). The input to the L YZGen model was an optimised search query based on the user requirement. The model used web crawling, named entity recognition (NER), and pattern identification. The model found and analysed freely available data from social media and other websites. Initially, person name identification was performed. An extensive search was carried out to retrieve peoples' contact points such as email addresses, contact numbers, designations, based on the identified names. Cross verification of the analysed details was conducted as the next step. The results generator provided the final output, which contained the leads and details. Generated details were verified with responses captured via a survey and identified that the model could detect lead details with 87.3 % average accuracy. The model used only the open data posted on the internet by the people. Therefore, it did not violate extensive privacy or security concerns. The generated results can be used, in several ways, including communicating promotional details to the potential target audience.
确定合适的目标受众是营销产品或服务的关键。应该遵循适当的机制来产生这些潜在的线索和目标受众。1981年至2012年间出生的大多数人都在公司担任高层职位。这些人是社交媒体和网站的常规用户,因为他们代表了Y世代和z世代。他们通常会留下数字足迹。因此,如果遵循一种准确的方法,就有可能通过分析公开可用的数据来确定潜在的接触点。在这项研究中,提出了一种基于分析社交媒体和网络数据的新型潜在客户生成机制,并命名为L YZGen ($Y$和$Z$ Generations的潜在客户)。lyzgen模型的输入是基于用户需求的优化搜索查询。该模型使用了网络爬虫、命名实体识别(NER)和模式识别。该模型发现并分析了来自社交媒体和其他网站的免费数据。最初,执行人名识别。我们进行了广泛的搜索,以检索人们的联系方式,如电子邮件地址、联系电话、指定名称等。下一步将对分析的细节进行交叉验证。结果生成器提供最终输出,其中包含线索和详细信息。生成的细节与通过调查捕获的响应进行了验证,并确定该模型可以以87.3%的平均准确率检测铅的细节。该模型仅使用了人们在互联网上发布的公开数据。因此,它没有侵犯广泛的隐私或安全问题。生成的结果可以以多种方式使用,包括向潜在目标受众传达促销细节。
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引用次数: 1
Keynote Speech: Learning to Personalise Human Activity Recognition 主题演讲:学习个性化人类活动识别
Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1109/scse53661.2021.9568365
N. Wiratunga
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2021 International Research Conference on Smart Computing and Systems Engineering (SCSE)
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