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Estimating the Demand for Service Bundles under Three-Part Tariffs 三部分费率下服务包需求的估算
Pub Date : 2019-03-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3353982
Liangheng Chen, Yao Luo, Ping Xiao
The practice of selling multiple products or services under nonlinear pricing has a long history in the business community. Consumers may face demand uncertainty when choosing a service plan, and preferences for multiple products or services may be inter-dependent. To examine a demand system with these features, we construct a two-stage discrete/continuous choice model for service bundle demand under three-part tariffs, allowing for interactive utility and preference correlations. Implementing a piecewise maximization approach to the consumer utility maximization problem, which is non-differentiable under three-part tariffs, we estimate the model via simulated method of moments. We then apply our model to data from a major wireless service provider in China. Finally, our counterfactual analysis simulates outcomes under three-part tariffs with interchangeable units. Compared to existing tariffs, the proposed ones contain fewer instruments without a significant loss of revenue. We also illustrate the implications of incorporating ex-post usage shocks in model estimates, elasticities and counterfactual outcomes.
在非线性定价下销售多种产品或服务的做法在企业界由来已久。消费者在选择服务计划时可能面临需求不确定性,对多种产品或服务的偏好可能是相互依赖的。为了检验具有这些特征的需求系统,我们构建了一个两阶段离散/连续选择模型,用于三部分费率下的服务捆绑需求,允许交互效用和偏好相关性。针对三部分电价下不可微的消费者效用最大化问题,采用分段最大化方法,通过模拟矩量法对模型进行估计。然后,我们将我们的模型应用于中国一家主要无线服务提供商的数据。最后,我们的反事实分析模拟了具有可互换单位的三部分关税的结果。与现有的关税相比,拟议的关税包含的工具更少,但不会造成重大的收入损失。我们还说明了在模型估计、弹性和反事实结果中纳入使用后冲击的含义。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Product and Market Information in an Online Marketplace 产品和市场信息在在线市场中的作用
Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3259465
Shu Hu, Mike Mingcheng Wei, Shiliang Cui
Although the online marketplaces have flourished, the role of product and market information in how it affects an online marketplace and how it can be leveraged to improve the sales or sales volume of the platform has not been explored in the prior research. We study how the provision of product and/or market information affects buyers' and sellers' behavior in an online marketplace by establishing the (Pareto-dominant) equilibrium for the sellers' pricing decisions under various information structures. Our main findings are as followings. First, we show that in equilibrium while sales volume of the platform increases in both the size of the buyers' pool and the size of the sellers' pool, sales increase only in the size of the buyers' pool and are unimodal in the size of the sellers' pool. Second, by analytically characterizing the platform's optimal information strategy as a function of the underlying market parameters and whether the platform's goal is to maximize sales or sales volume, we find that providing product and/or market information may backfire on the platform by jeopardizing its financial performance. Third, we demonstrate using numerical studies that information is more valuable to the platform when the goal of the platform is to maximize sales rather than sales volume, and when it faces a seller's market (i.e., demand-to-supply ratio is greater than one) rather than a buyer's market (i.e., demand-to-supply ratio is less than one).
尽管在线市场已经蓬勃发展,但产品和市场信息在如何影响在线市场中的作用以及如何利用它来提高平台的销售或销售量尚未在先前的研究中进行探讨。我们通过建立不同信息结构下卖方定价决策的(帕累托主导)均衡,研究了产品和/或市场信息的提供如何影响在线市场中买方和卖方的行为。我们的主要发现如下。首先,我们证明了在均衡状态下,当平台的销售量在买家池和卖家池的规模上都增加时,销售量只在买家池的规模上增加,而在卖家池的规模上是单峰的。其次,通过将平台的最优信息策略分析为潜在市场参数的函数,以及平台的目标是最大化销售还是销售量,我们发现,提供产品和/或市场信息可能会损害平台的财务业绩,从而适得其反。第三,我们通过数值研究证明,当平台的目标是最大化销售而不是销售量时,当平台面对卖方市场(即需求与供应比大于1)而不是买方市场(即需求与供应比小于1)时,信息对平台更有价值。
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引用次数: 1
Platform Price Parity Clauses and Segmentation 平台价格平价条款和细分
Pub Date : 2019-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3329157
Joan Calzada, Ester Manna, A. Mantovani
We investigate how the adoption of price parity clauses (PPCs) by established platforms affects the listing decisions of suppliers. PPCs have been widely adopted by online travel agencies (OTAs) to force client hotels not to charge lower prices in alternative sales channels. We find that OTAs adopt PPCs when they are perceived as highly substitutable, and in order to prevent showrooming. PPCs allow OTAs to charge hotels higher commission fees. However, hotels can respond by delisting themselves from some OTAs. Hence, our analysis reveals that the removal of PPCs enables more hotels to resort to OTAs. This is beneficial for consumers, as prices decrease in absence of PPCs.
我们研究了成熟平台采用价格平价条款(PPCs)如何影响供应商的上市决策。在线旅行社(ota)广泛采用点击付费模式,以迫使客户酒店不要在其他销售渠道中收取更低的价格。我们发现,当在线旅行社认为PPCs具有高度可替代性时,为了防止“展厅效应”,他们会采用PPCs。ppc允许在线旅行社向酒店收取更高的佣金。然而,酒店可以通过将自己从某些在线旅行社中除名来应对。因此,我们的分析表明,取消ppc会使更多的酒店转向在线旅行社。这对消费者是有利的,因为在没有ppc的情况下价格会下降。
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引用次数: 8
Brand - Price Interactions in Discrete Choice: But Should You? 离散选择中的品牌-价格互动:你应该这样做吗?
Pub Date : 2018-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3282674
Jake Lee
Choice models are used frequently in marketing to help management make better or more informed product and pricing decisions. The most common statistical model for choice studies is the multinomial logit with heteregeneity via Hierarchcial Bayes (HB). The standard approach is to model main effects for each attribute, but interactions between attributes are also possible. Recently, a company that produces choice modeling software has introduced an automated interaction search feature creating additional buzz for interactions in choice studies. More needs to be known about interactions in the presence of heterogeneity before applying feature interactions willy-nilly. Here we propose a method for testing interaction terms with a special look at brand-price interactions (equivalent to brand specific price effects) that are often recommended in practice. We show that brand specific pricing is unnecessary when using HB estimation and the added terms can lead to devastating model overfit. We provide a general framework for testing interactions. The step-by-step process can be used without a set of dedicated holdout tasks or sample. When evaluating interactions and model specifications more generally, overfit as well as managerial inferences should both be evaluated.
选择模型经常用于市场营销,以帮助管理层做出更好或更明智的产品和定价决策。选择研究中最常用的统计模型是基于层次贝叶斯(HB)的具有异质性的多项逻辑。标准的方法是为每个属性建模主要效果,但是属性之间的交互也是可能的。最近,一家生产选择建模软件的公司引入了一种自动交互搜索功能,为选择研究中的交互创造了额外的嗡嗡声。在任意地应用特征交互之前,需要对存在异质性的交互有更多的了解。在这里,我们提出了一种测试互动条款的方法,特别关注品牌-价格互动(相当于品牌特定价格效应),这在实践中经常被推荐。我们表明,当使用HB估计时,品牌特定定价是不必要的,并且添加的条款可能导致破坏性的模型过拟合。我们为测试交互提供了一个通用框架。一步一步的过程可以在没有一组专门的坚持任务或样本的情况下使用。当更一般地评估交互和模型规范时,过度拟合和管理推论都应该被评估。
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引用次数: 0
Micro-responses to Shocks: Pricing, Promotion, and Entry 冲击的微观反应:定价、促销和进入
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3471070
Alexis Antoniades, Sofronis Clerides, Mingzhi Xu
We study the response of markets to a firm-specific shock in a natural experiment setting. In 2006, a boycott of Danish products in several Arab countries was devastating for Danish cheese firms. In Saudi Arabia their market share collapsed from 16.5% in January to less than 1% in March and never fully recovered: it was 6.3% in 2009. By analyzing micro-level (scanner) price and expenditure data we find that (i) Danish firms lowered prices but kept the product mix the same; (ii) non-Danish firms kept prices constant but changed their product mix by introducing new products and new product bundles; and (iii) non-Danish firms chose to introduce products that were identical to the Danish in order to compete head-to-head. The finding that Danish firms adjusted to the negative demand shock through the intensive margin and non-Danish to the positive through the extensive is hard to reconcile with existing pricing theories or theories on multi-product firms. We offer two potential explanations that can help reconcile our findings with existing models.
我们在自然实验环境中研究市场对企业特定冲击的反应。2006年,几个阿拉伯国家对丹麦产品的抵制给丹麦奶酪公司带来了毁灭性的打击。在沙特阿拉伯,他们的市场份额从1月份的16.5%暴跌至3月份的不到1%,并且从未完全恢复:2009年为6.3%。通过分析微观层面(扫描仪)的价格和支出数据,我们发现(i)丹麦企业降低了价格,但保持了产品结构不变;非丹麦公司保持价格不变,但通过引进新产品和新产品包改变其产品组合;(iii)非丹麦公司选择引进与丹麦公司相同的产品,以便进行正面竞争。丹麦企业通过集约化边际适应负需求冲击,而非丹麦企业通过粗放化边际适应正需求冲击,这一发现很难与现有的定价理论或多产品企业理论相协调。我们提供了两种可能的解释,可以帮助我们的发现与现有模型相协调。
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引用次数: 5
Higher Education Pricing: Effects of Tuition Pricing on Nontraditional Student Persistence Moderated by Demographics 高等教育定价:学费定价对非传统学生持续学习的影响受人口统计学调节
Pub Date : 2018-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3241757
K. Spradley
Higher education pricing models have focused heavily on traditional student population analysis, net earnings, financial aid, and enrollment projections or unduplicated headcount. As the population of students shifts to a nontraditional majority, research of the effect of tuition price on nontraditional population segments is needed with a focus on persistence (the likelihood of re-enrollment in the next semester for a given student) rather than overall enrollment levels. It becomes prudent to re-evaluate pricing models and the associated coefficients from tuition pricing changes on persistence to more effectively serve the nontraditional population as nontraditional students rely less on financial aid and progress through their curriculum at an individualized pace consistent with their needs. The nontraditional population is, on average, older, with more professional experience, often with military affiliations (active duty, veteran, reservist, or family member), and education in progress. Using a quantitative longitudinal empirical case study, the researcher utilized student-level data from a private, nonprofit university in the Commission on Colleges of the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools regional accreditation territory to determine the effect of a tuition increase on nontraditional student (age 25 ) persistence. The data was analyzed using a linear regression interaction model in STATA. The researcher found statistical significance, with the counterintuitive finding that the effect of a 1 percent tuition increase for all students was an increase in persistence by 2.01 percent with a clear explanation for this finding of the overall tuition effect on persistence. Consistent with theory, this research finds that nontraditional students only increased their persistence by 0.62 percent, persisting less than traditional students. For every 1 percent increase in tuition, nontraditional online students are decreasing their persistence by 0.9 percent, persisting less than face-to-face students. These findings are important, as they provide contributions to Elasticity Theory, Tuition Elasticity Theory, and practice including application for higher education institutions, administrators and advisors in higher education, and customer relationship management software as service companies targeting students utilizing variations of predictive analytics to estimate persistence of different populations, estimate and understand tuition price increase effects on different populations, set recruiting and enrollment goals based upon expected attrition, and design customized communication plans to facilitate more in-depth relationships with those less likely to persist in an effort to overcome this statistic. These findings are also the first portion of exploring elasticities as they apply toward developing a pricing model for nontraditional student populations using the framework established by the TENEP model (Bryan & Whipple, 1995).
高等教育的定价模式主要集中在传统的学生人数分析、净收入、经济援助、入学预测或不重复的人数上。随着学生群体转变为非传统的大多数,研究学费价格对非传统人群的影响需要关注持续性(特定学生下学期重新入学的可能性)而不是总体入学水平。重新评估定价模型和学费定价变化对持久性的相关系数变得谨慎起来,以更有效地为非传统人群服务,因为非传统学生对经济援助的依赖更少,并且以符合他们需求的个性化步伐完成课程。非传统人口平均年龄较大,具有更多的专业经验,通常与军队有关(现役军人,退伍军人,预备役人员或家庭成员),并且正在接受教育。采用定量纵向实证案例研究,研究人员利用来自南方学院和学校协会区域认证区域的学院委员会的一所私立非营利性大学的学生水平数据来确定学费上涨对非传统学生(25岁)坚持学习的影响。使用STATA中的线性回归交互模型对数据进行分析。研究人员发现了统计学上的重大意义,与直觉相反的是,所有学生的学费每增加1%,坚持不懈的人就会增加2.01%,这一发现对学费对坚持不懈的总体影响有明确的解释。与理论一致的是,这项研究发现,非传统学生的坚持只增加了0.62%,比传统学生坚持得少。学费每增加1%,非传统在线学生的坚持度就会下降0.9%,比面对面的学生坚持度要低。这些发现很重要,因为它们为弹性理论、学费弹性理论和实践提供了贡献,包括高等教育机构、高等教育管理人员和顾问的应用,以及客户关系管理软件作为服务公司针对学生利用预测分析的变化来估计不同人群的持久性,估计和理解学费上涨对不同人群的影响。根据预期的流失率设定招聘和注册目标,并设计定制的沟通计划,以促进与那些不太可能坚持努力克服这一统计数据的人建立更深入的关系。这些发现也是探索弹性的第一部分,因为它们适用于使用TENEP模型建立的框架为非传统学生群体开发定价模型(Bryan &惠普尔,1995)。
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引用次数: 0
Price Match Guarantees in the Age of Showrooming: An Empirical Analysis 展厅时代的价格匹配保证:一个实证分析
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3271305
Chunhua Wu, Kangkang Wang, Ting Zhu
Consumer showrooming – the behavior of examining a product in a brick-andmortar store and later buying it from an online retailer – is seen as a major threat to brick-and-mortar retailers. To combat showrooming, Best Buy announced a price-matching policy in 2012 to compete with major online retailers. In this paper, we examine the impact of Best Buy’s price-matching policy on the price competition between Best Buy and Amazon across a wide variety of product categories. We empirically explore Best Buy’s and Amazon’s pricing patterns using unique datasets collected from different sources, and find robust results that the competitive effect of the price-matching policy depends on the showrooming value of a product. For those products that offer consumers large value from physical store experiences – i.e., the “showrooming products” – the policy led to more intense price competition. Moreover, Amazon cut prices more aggressively than Best Buy. For those products that offer relatively small showrooming value – i.e., the “non-showrooming products” – it alleviated price competition. We also provide theoretical explanations for the findings and illustrate why the price matching policy did not reduce the price gaps between Amazon and Best Buy.
消费者展厅现象——在实体店检查产品,然后从网上零售商那里购买的行为——被视为对实体零售商的主要威胁。为了打击“展厅现象”,百思买在2012年宣布了一项价格匹配政策,以与主要的在线零售商竞争。在本文中,我们研究了百思买的价格匹配政策对百思买和亚马逊在各种产品类别之间的价格竞争的影响。我们使用从不同来源收集的独特数据集对百思买和亚马逊的定价模式进行了实证研究,并发现价格匹配政策的竞争效应取决于产品的展厅价值。对于那些从实体店体验中为消费者提供巨大价值的产品,即“展厅产品”,该政策导致了更激烈的价格竞争。此外,亚马逊的降价幅度比百思买更大。对于那些展示价值相对较小的产品,即“非展示产品”,它减轻了价格竞争。我们还为研究结果提供了理论解释,并说明了价格匹配政策为什么没有缩小亚马逊和百思买之间的价格差距。
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引用次数: 7
Pricing and Matching with Forward-Looking Buyers and Sellers 前瞻性买家和卖家的定价和匹配
Pub Date : 2018-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2859864
Yiwei Chen, Ming Hu
Problem definition: We study a dynamic market over a finite horizon for a single product or service in which buyers with private valuations and sellers with private supply costs arrive following Poisson processes. A single market-making intermediary decides dynamically on the ask and bid prices that will be posted to buyers and sellers, respectively, and on the matching decisions after buyers and sellers agree to buy and sell. Buyers and sellers can wait strategically for better prices after they arrive. Academic/practical relevance: This problem is motivated by the emerging sharing economy and directly speaks to the core of operations management that is about matching supply with demand. Methodology: The dynamic, stochastic, and game-theoretic nature makes the problem intractable. We employ the mechanism-design methodology to establish a tractable upper bound on the optimal profit, which motivates a simple heuristic policy. Results: Our heuristic policy is: fixed ask and bid prices plus price adjustments as compensation for waiting costs, in conjunction with the greedy matching policy on a first-come-first-served basis. These fixed base prices balance demand and supply in expectation and can be computed efficiently. The waiting-compensated price processes are time-dependent and tend to have opposite trends at the beginning and end of the horizon. Under this heuristic policy, forward-looking buyers and sellers behave myopically. This policy is shown to be asymptotically optimal. Managerial implications: Our results suggest that the intermediary might not lose much optimality by maintaining stable prices unless the underlying market conditions have significantly changed, not to mention that frequent surge pricing may antagonize riders and induce riders and drivers to behave strategically in ways that are hard to account for with traditional pricing models.
问题定义:我们研究一个有限范围内的动态市场,针对单一产品或服务,其中具有私人估值的买家和具有私人供应成本的卖家遵循泊松过程到达。一个单一的做市中介动态地决定将分别发布给买家和卖家的要价和买入价,以及在买家和卖家同意买卖后的匹配决策。买家和卖家可以策略性地等待更好的价格。学术/实践相关性:这个问题是由新兴的共享经济推动的,直接涉及到运营管理的核心,即供需匹配。方法:动态、随机和博弈论的性质使问题难以解决。我们采用机制设计方法建立了一个可处理的最优利润上界,该上界激励了一个简单的启发式策略。结果:我们的启发式策略是:固定的要价和出价加上价格调整作为等待成本的补偿,结合先到先得的贪婪匹配策略。这些固定的基础价格在预期中平衡了需求和供给,并且可以有效地计算。等待补偿的价格过程是时间依赖的,在视界的开始和结束时往往有相反的趋势。在这种启发式策略下,有远见的买卖双方的行为都是短视的。该策略被证明是渐近最优的。管理启示:我们的研究结果表明,除非潜在的市场条件发生重大变化,否则中介机构可能不会通过保持稳定的价格而失去太多的最优性,更不用说频繁的峰时定价可能会激怒乘客,并诱导乘客和司机以传统定价模型难以解释的方式进行战略性行为。
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引用次数: 75
Synchronizing Pricing and Replenishment to Serve Forward-Looking Customers with Lost Sales 同步定价和补货,为失去销售的前瞻性客户提供服务
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3216549
Ying‐ju Chen, Leon Yang Chu
[Problem Definition] We incorporate heterogeneous customer valuation and the strategic customer behavior in the classical economic order quantity (EOQ) setting. The seller incurs setup costs when replenishing inventory, and can set the prices differently over time and implement capacity rationing. [Academic/ Practical Relevance] While similar ideas of market segmentation and intertemporal price discrimination can be carried over from the travel industries to other industries, there are new aspects when applying these concepts to retail outlets and supermarkets, because they usually face inventory replenishment problems. This makes the joint inventory replenishment and revenue management problem imperative. [Methodology] We adopt the mechanism design and dynamic programming approaches. [Results] We establish the optimality of cyclic intertemporal price discrimination, even if the customers are endowed with homogeneous valuations. Under the optimal policy, the replenishments and price promotions are synchronized, and the seller adopts the highest selling price when the inventory level is the lowest and plans discontinuous price discount at the replenishment point when the inventory is the highest. We also show that, under inventory-based pricing there is a direct mapping between deterministic and stochastic arrivals scenarios, and randomness on the arrivals per se does not alter the structure of the optimal policy. [Managerial Implications] This cyclic pricing scheme offers a stark contrast to the "low-price-every-day" scheme and achieves overall higher profit because customer strategic behavior offers additional flexibility to the seller in managing his inventory. Furthermore, because strategic customers are willingly backlogged, this creates opportunities for the seller to work with the customers to achieve a lower operational cost and a higher overall profit.
[问题定义]在经典的经济订货量(EOQ)模型中,我们将异质性顾客评价和战略性顾客行为相结合。卖方在补充库存时会产生设置成本,并且可以随着时间的推移设定不同的价格并实施容量配给。[学术/实际意义]虽然类似的市场细分和跨期价格歧视的想法可以从旅游业转移到其他行业,但当将这些概念应用于零售店和超市时,会有新的方面,因为它们通常面临库存补充问题。这使得联合库存补充和收入管理问题势在必行。[方法]采用机制设计和动态规划方法。[结果]建立了在客户被赋予同质定价的情况下,周期跨期价格歧视的最优性。在最优策略下,补货和价格促销同步进行,卖家在库存水平最低时采用最高的销售价格,在库存最高时在补货点计划不连续的价格折扣。我们还表明,在基于库存的定价下,确定性和随机到达场景之间存在直接映射,并且到达的随机性本身不会改变最优策略的结构。[管理意义]这种循环定价方案与“每天低价”方案形成鲜明对比,并实现更高的整体利润,因为客户的战略行为为卖家管理库存提供了额外的灵活性。此外,由于战略客户愿意积压,这为卖方创造了与客户合作的机会,以实现更低的运营成本和更高的整体利润。
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引用次数: 2
From Critical Mass to Key Players: A Network Approach to Platform Design 从临界质量到关键参与者:平台设计的网络方法
Pub Date : 2018-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3492281
Yu-Hsin Liu
In this essay, I generalize the structure of network effect from a ""two-sided market"" to a pair-wised system. By adapting the adjacency matrix from the graph theory and the micro-foundation contributed from Ballerster et al. (2006), I discuss the monetization strategy for the platform that confronts the demand with pair-wised network effects, such as Facebook. I aim to compare the business and welfare implications by pricing users directly and by pricing the third party (e.g. advertisers). I also aim to provide the first tractable competition model when consumers choose how much (time) to consume in each platform, instead of which ""one"" to consume, as this ""multi-homing"" behavior is common in the digitized world.
在本文中,我将网络效应的结构从“双边市场”推广到“双智系统”。通过调整图论中的邻接矩阵和Ballerster等人(2006)的微观基础,我讨论了面对配对网络效应需求的平台(如Facebook)的货币化策略。我的目标是通过对用户直接定价和对第三方(如广告商)定价来比较商业和福利的影响。我还旨在提供第一个可处理的竞争模型,当消费者选择在每个平台上消费多少(时间),而不是哪个“一个”消费,因为这种“多归”行为在数字化世界中很常见。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Pricing (Topic)
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