{"title":"Сингулярность XXI века в контексте Большой истории: математический анализ","authors":"Andrey Korotayev","doi":"10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2328","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":326067,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Big History","volume":"301 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132931562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
La Gran Historia es un nuevo campo disciplinario de estudios que se ocupa del pasado en todas las escalas posibles. Su enfoque es historico, pero vincula las disciplinas de la cosmologia a la geologia con la biologia evolutiva y la historia humana. Comenzando “?Que es la Historia?” de E.H. Carr, este ensayo describe la evolucion de la Gran Historia y, en particular, su relacion con la disciplina historica. Describe que es la nueva disciplina y en que podria convertirse. Sostiene que la Gran Historia puede ayudar a superar la fragmentacion caracteristica de la educacion moderna y la erudicion en todas las disciplinas. Al hacerlo, puede desentranar algo asi como una historia de origen moderna y global, basada en lo mejor de la erudicion cientifica moderna.
{"title":"¿Qué es la Gran Historia?","authors":"David Christian","doi":"10.22339/JBH.V2I3.2331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22339/JBH.V2I3.2331","url":null,"abstract":"La Gran Historia es un nuevo campo disciplinario de estudios que se ocupa del pasado en todas las escalas posibles. Su enfoque es historico, pero vincula las disciplinas de la cosmologia a la geologia con la biologia evolutiva y la historia humana. Comenzando “?Que es la Historia?” de E.H. Carr, este ensayo describe la evolucion de la Gran Historia y, en particular, su relacion con la disciplina historica. Describe que es la nueva disciplina y en que podria convertirse. Sostiene que la Gran Historia puede ayudar a superar la fragmentacion caracteristica de la educacion moderna y la erudicion en todas las disciplinas. Al hacerlo, puede desentranar algo asi como una historia de origen moderna y global, basada en lo mejor de la erudicion cientifica moderna.","PeriodicalId":326067,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Big History","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120898295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzweil in his famous book), which starts with the emergence of our Galaxy and ends with the decoding of the DNA code, is indeed ideally described by an extremely simple mathematical function (not known to Kurzweil himself) with a singularity in the region of 2029. It is also shown that, a similar time series (beginning with the onset of life on Earth and ending with the information revolution – composed by the Russian physicist Alexander Panov completely independently of Kurzweil) is also practically perfectly described by a mathematical function (very similar to the above and not used by Panov) with a singularity in the region of 2027. It is shown that this function is also extremely similar to the equation discovered in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and published in his famous article in the journal “Science” – this function almost perfectly describes the dynamics of the world population and is characterized by a mathematical singularity in the region of 2027. All this indicates the existence of sufficiently rigorous global macroevolutionary regularities (describing the evolution of complexity on our planet for a few billion of years), which can be surprisingly accurately described by extremely simple mathematical functions. At the same time it is demonstrated that in the region of the singularity point there is no reason, after Kurzweil, to expect an unprecedented (many orders of magnitude) acceleration of the rates of technological development. There are more grounds for interpreting this point as an indication of an inflection point, after which the pace of global evolution will begin to slow down systematically in the long term.
在不久的将来，我们应该期待“奇点”的想法最近变得相当流行，这主要归功于谷歌在机器训练领域的技术总监雷蒙德·库兹韦尔(Raymond Kurzweil)和他的书《奇点临近》(2005)的活动。这表明，从银河系的出现开始，到DNA密码的解码结束的一系列事件的数学分析(由库兹韦尔在他的名著中描述)，确实可以用一个极其简单的数学函数(库兹韦尔自己不知道)来理想地描述，这个函数在2029年有一个奇点。它还表明，类似的时间序列(从地球上的生命开始到信息革命结束——由俄罗斯物理学家亚历山大·帕诺夫完全独立于库兹韦尔组成)也可以用一个数学函数(与上面非常相似，但帕诺夫没有使用)几乎完美地描述，其奇点在2027年。结果表明，该函数与Heinz von Foerster在1960年发现并发表在《科学》杂志上的著名文章中的方程也非常相似——该函数几乎完美地描述了世界人口的动态，并以2027年地区的数学奇点为特征。所有这些都表明，存在着足够严格的全球宏观进化规律(描述我们星球上几十亿年的复杂性进化)，这些规律可以用极其简单的数学函数精确地描述。与此同时，在库兹韦尔之后，在奇点区域，没有理由期望技术发展速度出现前所未有的(许多数量级)加速。有更多的理由将这一点解释为一个拐点的迹象，从长远来看，在此之后，全球进化的步伐将开始系统地放缓。
{"title":"The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis","authors":"Andrey Korotayev","doi":"10.22339/JBH.V2I3.2329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22339/JBH.V2I3.2329","url":null,"abstract":"The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzweil in his famous book), which starts with the emergence of our Galaxy and ends with the decoding of the DNA code, is indeed ideally described by an extremely simple mathematical function (not known to Kurzweil himself) with a singularity in the region of 2029. It is also shown that, a similar time series (beginning with the onset of life on Earth and ending with the information revolution – composed by the Russian physicist Alexander Panov completely independently of Kurzweil) is also practically perfectly described by a mathematical function (very similar to the above and not used by Panov) with a singularity in the region of 2027. It is shown that this function is also extremely similar to the equation discovered in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and published in his famous article in the journal “Science” – this function almost perfectly describes the dynamics of the world population and is characterized by a mathematical singularity in the region of 2027. All this indicates the existence of sufficiently rigorous global macroevolutionary regularities (describing the evolution of complexity on our planet for a few billion of years), which can be surprisingly accurately described by extremely simple mathematical functions. At the same time it is demonstrated that in the region of the singularity point there is no reason, after Kurzweil, to expect an unprecedented (many orders of magnitude) acceleration of the rates of technological development. There are more grounds for interpreting this point as an indication of an inflection point, after which the pace of global evolution will begin to slow down systematically in the long term.","PeriodicalId":326067,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Big History","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122186054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To quote the psychologist Jerome Bruner, “Schooling is only one small part of how culture inducts the young into its canonical ways.” This “small part” has become much smaller in recent decades. In fact, scholastic curriculum has embraced only a small part of the enormous and complex changes that scientific and technological research has generated in everyday life and in the way people view the world. A new culture is now spreading through a multiplicity of media forms that scholastic institutions have struggled to catch on to and understand. The formation of global citizens is an emerging problem. OPPI is a small teacher training institute that for more than 50 years, in cooperation with schools and universities, has been keeping teachers aware that technological innovations are changing people’s consciousness and that education must adapt to these changes. OPPI has identified Big History as an important means to adapt scholastic instruction to youths’ consciousness and has begun to study how to implement it. Its activities begin with a questionnaire investigating the spontaneous ideas that students have acquired about the universe, not only from previous school studies, but also from social networks, the media, and their family environment. Discussion of this questionnaire is the main topic of this article. The second topic concerns the presentation of an intervention model, which is planned for students ages 16–18 and their teachers. Correspondence | Codetta Raiteri, Adalberto et al, adalberto@codetta.it Citation | Codetta Raiteri, A. et al. (2018) Towards a Big History Model for Italian Schools: The Convergence of Knowledge from Many Disciplines. Journal of Big History, III(1); 33 49. DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v3i1.3120
引用心理学家Jerome Bruner的话:“学校教育只是文化引导年轻人进入其规范方式的一小部分。”近几十年来，这个“小部分”变得越来越小。事实上，科学和技术研究给日常生活和人们看待世界的方式带来了巨大而复杂的变化，而学术课程只涵盖了其中的一小部分。一种新的文化正在通过多种媒体形式传播开来，而学术机构一直在努力追赶和理解这种文化。全球公民的形成是一个新出现的问题。OPPI是一家小型的教师培训机构，50多年来，它一直与学校和大学合作，让教师们意识到技术创新正在改变人们的意识，教育必须适应这些变化。OPPI将“大历史”作为学校教育适应青少年意识的重要手段，并开始研究如何实施。它的活动从一份调查问卷开始，调查学生对宇宙的自发想法，这些想法不仅来自以前的学校学习，还来自社会网络、媒体和他们的家庭环境。对该问卷的讨论是本文的主要主题。第二个主题是针对16-18岁的学生和他们的老师提出的干预模式。对应| cotta Raiteri, Adalberto等人，adalberto@codetta.it引文| cotta Raiteri, a. et al.(2018)迈向意大利学校的大历史模型:多学科知识的融合。大历史学报，3 (1);33 49。DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v3i1.3120
{"title":"Towards a Big History Model for Italian Schools","authors":"A. Raiteri, M. Porta, G. Grieco, Renza Cambini","doi":"10.22339/JBH.V3I1.3120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22339/JBH.V3I1.3120","url":null,"abstract":"To quote the psychologist Jerome Bruner, “Schooling is only one small part of how culture inducts the young into its canonical ways.” This “small part” has become much smaller in recent decades. In fact, scholastic curriculum has embraced only a small part of the enormous and complex changes that scientific and technological research has generated in everyday life and in the way people view the world. A new culture is now spreading through a multiplicity of media forms that scholastic institutions have struggled to catch on to and understand. The formation of global citizens is an emerging problem. OPPI is a small teacher training institute that for more than 50 years, in cooperation with schools and universities, has been keeping teachers aware that technological innovations are changing people’s consciousness and that education must adapt to these changes. OPPI has identified Big History as an important means to adapt scholastic instruction to youths’ consciousness and has begun to study how to implement it. Its activities begin with a questionnaire investigating the spontaneous ideas that students have acquired about the universe, not only from previous school studies, but also from social networks, the media, and their family environment. Discussion of this questionnaire is the main topic of this article. The second topic concerns the presentation of an intervention model, which is planned for students ages 16–18 and their teachers. Correspondence | Codetta Raiteri, Adalberto et al, adalberto@codetta.it Citation | Codetta Raiteri, A. et al. (2018) Towards a Big History Model for Italian Schools: The Convergence of Knowledge from Many Disciplines. Journal of Big History, III(1); 33 49. DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v3i1.3120","PeriodicalId":326067,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Big History","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134535261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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