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Using Numbers to Persuade: Hidden Rhetoric of Statistics 用数字说服:统计的隐藏修辞
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.747554
Sıdıka Başçı, Nadia Hassan
Philosophy of current knowledge distinguishes facts from values. It maintains that facts are objective, indisputable, universally verifiable and do not require to persuade. Since rhetoric is persuasion it is assumed to be deceptive and overlook reality. Therefore, statistics in its current form disregards rhetoric and emphasizes only numbers. It ignores meanings and interpretation of numbers that involve subjectivity and value judgements. In real world, numbers and values are entangled in a way that it becomes impossible to avoid subjectivity. So, it is used with an appearance of objectivity. We illustrate how apparently objective statistics conceal subjective choices. Most of real-world experiences cannot be reduced to numbers, but scientific approach compels us to measure everything. In the attempt to measure the unmeasurables like trust, intelligence and wealth etc.it is inevitable make subjective choices. There is no objective way to reduce multiple measures into one. In the field of economics values are involved even in seemingly indisputable numbers like GDP. It is value laden for the choice of factors, weights and their signs. Making comparisons on such measures without awareness have harmful implications for policy development. Moreover, it is also desirable to understand hidden values to avoid deception.
当前知识的哲学将事实与价值区分开来。它认为事实是客观的,无可争辩的,普遍可验证的,不需要说服。由于修辞是说服,它被认为是欺骗性的,忽视现实。因此,目前形式的统计忽略修辞,只强调数字。它忽略了涉及主观性和价值判断的数字的意义和解释。在现实世界中,数字与价值纠缠在一起,无法避免主观性。因此,它的使用带有一种客观的表象。我们说明了明显的客观统计数据是如何隐藏主观选择的。大多数现实世界的经验不能简化为数字,但科学的方法迫使我们衡量一切。在衡量诸如信任、智力、财富等不可衡量的事物时,主观选择是不可避免的。没有客观的方法将多种措施简化为一种措施。在经济学领域,价值甚至涉及到GDP等看似无可争议的数字。因子、权重及其符号的选择承载着价值。在没有意识的情况下对这些措施进行比较会对政策制定产生有害影响。此外,了解隐藏的价值以避免欺骗也是可取的。
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引用次数: 2
New Directions in Macroeceonomics 宏观经济学的新方向
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.747603
Sıdıka Başçı, A. Zaman
The glaring failure of modern macroeconomics to predict the Global Financial Crisis, and to provide remedies for the Great Recession which followed, has led to renewed interest in alternative approaches to Macroeconomics. There is huge amount of ongoing work aimed at creating a Macroeconomics for the 21st Century. The task is of the highest priority, as failures of economic theory have led to misery for millions. Wrong measures of GDP, and cost-benefit calculation which fail to account for environmental costs, and prioritize private profits over social welfare, have created a climate catastrophe which threatens to destroy the planet. In accordance with the importance of this task, we are expanding the scope of this journal, to cover all new approaches to economics, which fall outside of the boxes of conventional macro, micro, and econometrics of the 20th Century. This article outlines seven broad categories of research directions, and four different methodological principles which fall outside the boundaries of the conventional approach, and offer promise for building a Macroeconomics for the 21st Century. We hope to invite contributions in these areas for future issues.
现代宏观经济学在预测全球金融危机以及为随之而来的大衰退提供补救措施方面的明显失败,重新引起了人们对宏观经济学替代方法的兴趣。有大量正在进行的工作旨在创建21世纪的宏观经济学。这项任务是重中之重,因为经济理论的失败已经给数百万人带来了痛苦。错误的国内生产总值(GDP)计算方法,以及没有考虑到环境成本的成本效益计算,以及将私人利润置于社会福利之上的做法,已经造成了一场威胁要摧毁地球的气候灾难。与这项任务的重要性相一致,我们正在扩大本刊的范围,以涵盖20世纪传统宏观、微观和计量经济学之外的所有新的经济学方法。本文概述了七大类研究方向和四种不同的方法原则,这些原则超出了传统方法的界限,并为建立21世纪的宏观经济学提供了希望。我们希望邀请在这些领域对今后的问题作出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable? 模型与现实:脱离现实的模型是如何在认识论上被接受的?
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.748128
A. Zaman
Economic models translate real problems to an artificial world, and calculate outcomes. The match between artificial worlds populated by rational robots, and the real world, is never assessed. Instead, models are judged on aesthetic grounds, involving conformity to preconceived principles of optimization and equilibrium. Despite methodological proclamations to the contrary, models are not judged by predictive performance. Economics models are formulated axiomatically, and never cross-checked against reality. Taking this (controversial) characterization of economic methodology for granted, this paper sketches trends in philosophy of science which led to a methodology which permits creation of mental models disconnected from reality. A key development was the separation of the observable phenomena from the underlying reality (noumena) which eventually allowed empiricist philosophers to jettison the underlying reality as part of what good models attempt to describe. The paper discusses contemporary methodologies for assessing models in economics and econometrics, and explains why these lead to models disconnected from reality.
经济模型将现实问题转化为一个人工世界,并计算结果。由理性机器人组成的人工世界与现实世界之间的匹配,从来没有得到过评估。相反,模型是根据美学的理由来判断的,包括是否符合预先设想的优化和平衡原则。尽管方法上有相反的声明,但模型不是通过预测性能来判断的。经济模型是根据公理制定的,从来没有与现实交叉检验过。将这种(有争议的)经济方法论特征视为理所当然,本文概述了科学哲学的趋势,这些趋势导致了一种方法论,这种方法论允许创造与现实脱节的心智模型。一个关键的发展是将可观察的现象从潜在的现实(本体)中分离出来,这最终使经验主义哲学家放弃了将潜在的现实作为好的模型试图描述的一部分。本文讨论了评估经济学和计量经济学模型的当代方法,并解释了为什么这些方法会导致模型与现实脱节。
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引用次数: 3
Causality, Confounding, and Simpson’s Paradox 因果关系、困惑与辛普森悖论
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.687042
A. Zaman, Taseer Salahuddin
Bitter fighting among Christian factions and immoral behavior among Church leaders led to a transition to secular thought in Europe (see Zaman (2018) for details). One of the consequences of rejection of religion was the rejection of all unobservables. Empiricists like David Hume rejected all knowledge which was not based on observations and logic. He famously stated that: ““If we take in our hand any volume; of divinity or school metaphysics, for instance; let us ask, Does it contain any abstract reasoning concerning quantity or number? No. Does it contain any experimental reasoning concerning matter of fact and existence? No. Commit it then to the flames: for it can contain nothing but sophistry and illusion.” David Hume further realized that causality was not observable. This means that it is observable that event Y happened after event X, but it is not observable that Y happened due to X. The underlying mechanisms which connect X to Y are not observable. Current Article discusses the impact of changing causal structures on relationships and results of econometric analysis. it shows that conventional econometric analysis is devoid of causal chains which makes it impossible to get realistic results.
基督教派系之间的激烈斗争和教会领袖之间的不道德行为导致了欧洲向世俗思想的过渡(详见Zaman(2018))。拒绝宗教的后果之一是拒绝所有不可观测的事物。像大卫·休谟这样的经验主义者拒绝接受一切不是基于观察和逻辑的知识。他曾说过一句著名的话:“如果我们手里拿着任何一本书,比如神性或学派形而上学的书,让我们问,它包含任何关于数量或数字的抽象推理吗?不包含任何关于事实和存在的实验推理吗?没有。那就把它付之一炬吧:因为它只包含诡辩和幻觉。”。”大卫·休谟进一步认识到因果关系是不可观察的。这意味着可以观察到事件Y发生在事件X之后,但不可观察到Y是由于X而发生的。将X连接到Y的潜在机制是不可观察的。本文讨论了因果结构变化对经济计量分析的关系和结果的影响。这表明,传统的计量经济学分析缺乏因果链,无法得到现实的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Demonetization and Its Effects on BSESENSEX and Some Sectoral Indices: An Exploratory Econometric Analysis 废钞运动及其对BSESENSEX和一些行业指数的影响:一个探索性的计量分析
Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.473544
D. Mukhopadhyay, Nityananda Sarkar
T his study has carried out somepreliminary time series analyses to examine the impacts of demonetization which was carried outin India on 8 November 2016, on the well-known Indian stock index, BSESENSEX,and four major sectoral indices viz., BSE BANKEX,BSE Auto, BSE Reality and BSE Smallcap,using daily level time series data covering the period 1January 2016 to 31May2017. Apart from examining the stationarity/nonstationarity property and existence of structural breaks after demonetizationin these series, the paper has also studied the trend behavior and returns models for both the pre- and post-demonetization periods. This study has found that while there is more than one break in all the five series at their level values, there is only one structural break after demonetization.  It has also been found that the trend function for all the index series broadly gives support to this finding of one break after demonetization. Further, some changes have also been observed in the stationary models for the two sub-periods of pre- and post-demonetization for all but BSE Auto index. Finally, except for BSESENSEX to some extent, no change in the status of stationarity/nonstationarity in the pre- and post- demonetization periods has been found in the other series.
本研究进行了一些初步的时间序列分析,以检查2016年11月8日在印度进行的非货币化对着名的印度股票指数BSESENSEX和四个主要行业指数(即BSE BANKEX,BSE Auto, BSE Reality和BSE Smallcap)的影响,使用涵盖2016年1月1日至2017年5月31日的日水平时间序列数据。除了研究这些序列中废止纸币后的平稳性/非平稳性和结构断裂的存在之外,本文还研究了废止纸币前后时期的趋势行为和回报模型。本研究发现,虽然在所有五个系列的水平值中都存在不止一个断裂,但在废除纸币后只有一个结构性断裂。人们还发现,所有指数系列的趋势函数广泛地支持这一发现,即废除纸币后的一次突破。此外,在除BSE自动指数外的所有非货币化前和后两个子时期的平稳模型中也观察到一些变化。最后,除了BSESENSEX在一定程度上,其他系列在废钞前后的平稳/非平稳状态没有变化。
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引用次数: 0
Power Comparison of Autocorrelation Tests in Dynamic Models 动态模型中自相关检验的功率比较
Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.447133
T. Islam, Erum Toor
The four most readily available tests of autocorrelation in dynamic models namely Durbin’s M test, Durbin’s H test, Breusch Godfrey test ( BGF ) and Ljung & Box ( Q ) test are compared in terms of their power for varying sample sizes, levels of autocorrelation and significance using Monte Carlo simulations in STATA. Power comparison reveals that the Durbin M test is the best option for testing the hypothesis of no autocorrelation in dynamic models for all sample sizes. Breusch Godfrey’s test has comparable and at times minutely better performance than Durbin’s M test however in small sample sizes, Durbin’s M test outperforms the Breusch Godfrey test in terms of power. The Durbin H and the Ljung & Box Q tests consistently occupy the second last and last positions respectively in terms of power performance with maximum power gap of 63 & 60% respectively from the best test ( M test).
使用STATA中的蒙特卡罗模拟,比较了动态模型中四种最容易获得的自相关检验,即Durbin的M检验、Durbin的H检验、Breusch-Gorfrey检验(BGF)和Ljung&Box(Q)检验,以了解它们在不同样本量、自相关水平和显著性下的功效。功率比较表明,对于所有样本量的动态模型,Durbin M检验是检验无自相关假设的最佳选择。Breusch Godfrey测试的性能与Durbin的M测试相当,有时甚至要好得多。然而,在小样本量下,Durbin的M测试在功率方面优于Breusch Godfrey测试。Durbin H和Ljung&Box Q测试在功率性能方面始终分别占据倒数第二和倒数第二的位置,与最佳测试(M测试)相比,最大功率差距分别为63%和60%。
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引用次数: 4
Performance of Methods Determining Structural Break in Linear Regression Models 线性回归模型结构断裂判定方法的性能
Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.450804
Zümre Özdemir Güler, M. A. Bakır
In this study, performance evaluation of some suggested approaches for the determination of structural break in a regression equation was studied. In this context, firstly the theoretical structure of some well-known methods on determination of structural break was considered by defining structural break problem. Suggested tests for the determination of the structural break may have performance differences under some factors. To demonstrate these differences, a simulation study in terms of effects of factors considered as performances of these methods. The results of the simulation revealed that the performances varies in terms of some structural features from the suggested methods for breakage determination.
在本研究中,研究了确定回归方程中结构断裂的一些建议方法的性能评估。在这种背景下,首先通过定义结构断裂问题,考虑了一些已知的确定结构断裂的方法的理论结构。在某些因素下,用于确定结构断裂的建议测试可能存在性能差异。为了证明这些差异,一项模拟研究在影响因素方面被认为是这些方法的性能。模拟结果表明,与建议的断裂测定方法相比,性能在某些结构特征方面有所不同。
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引用次数: 4
Learning from Errors While Forecasting Inflation: A Case for Intercept Correction 在预测通货膨胀时从错误中学习:一个截距修正的例子
Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.33818/IER.304468
M. Hanif, Jahanzeb Malik
Structural changes are quite common in macroeconomic time series. Internal/external shock(s) may cause significant structural change in any economy. Simplest form of such change is observed as shift in constant of an underlying relationship between a pair of macroeconomic variables. Forecasting from such a model assuming no structural break is tantamount to ignoring the important aspects of underlying economy and mostly results in forecast failure. Intercept correction (adjustment for the realized forecast error) is a method for accommodating such ignored structural break(s). We use a simple model to forecast inflation (based upon single lag of money supply growth) for 25 countries and compare its performance with a) the same model with optimal intercept correction, b) the same model with half intercept correction, and c) a random walk model (with drift). Optimal intercept correction approach outperforms in forecasting next period inflation compared to one from a) the same model without intercept correction, b) the same model with half intercept correction, and c) random walk model. We also observe that higher correction is needed for countries with more volatile inflation.
结构变化在宏观经济时间序列中相当常见。内部/外部冲击可能导致任何经济体发生重大结构变化。这种变化的最简单形式是一对宏观经济变量之间基本关系的常数的变化。根据这样一个假设没有结构性突破的模型进行预测,就等于忽视了基础经济的重要方面,并且大多导致预测失败。截距校正(对已实现的预测误差进行调整)是一种适应这种被忽视的结构断裂的方法。我们使用一个简单的模型来预测25个国家的通货膨胀(基于货币供应增长的单一滞后),并将其性能与a)具有最优截距校正的同一模型、b)具有半截距校正和c)随机游走模型(具有漂移)进行比较。与a)无截距校正的同一模型、b)有半截距校正和c)随机游动模型相比,最优截距校正方法在预测下一时期通货膨胀方面表现出色。我们还观察到,通胀波动较大的国家需要进行更高的调整。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Economic Convergence and Spatial Spillovers in Turkey 土耳其区域经济趋同与空间溢出效应
Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.33818/IER.448603
T. Doğan, Ahmet Kındap
Using sigma and beta convergence methods, this study tests economic convergence in Turkish NUTS-2 regions between 2004-2011. The findings of sigma convergence show that, in accordance with the literature, the interregional income gap decreases during economic recession periods and increases during economic expansion periods. The beta convergence results obtained by the cross-sectional and panel estimations indicate the existence of absolute convergence. In addition, spatial data analysis and beta convergence analysis provide strong evidence for the existence of spatial autocorrelation in regional income distribution and show that the spatial dimension should be taken into account in convergence analyses.
本研究采用西格玛和贝塔收敛方法,测试了土耳其NUTS-2地区2004-2011年间的经济收敛性。西格玛收敛的结果表明,根据文献,区域间收入差距在经济衰退时期减小,在经济扩张时期增大。通过截面和面板估计获得的β收敛结果表明绝对收敛的存在。此外,空间数据分析和贝塔收敛分析为区域收入分布中存在空间自相关提供了有力的证据,并表明在收敛分析中应考虑空间维度。
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引用次数: 6
The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India 商品期货波动和宏观经济基本面——以印度石油和油籽商品为例
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.33818/IER.491326
Suranjana Joarder
Food price inflation results in uncertainty in the food markets and reduces real income as food covers a relatively large share of the households' expenditures in the LDCs. As price of food commodities are primarily governed by the underlying demand and supply conditions, we have analyzed the association of futures price volatility with the underlying macroeconomic variables. A strong association of futures price volatility with the underlying macro variables will imply that futures market operates based on the implications of the macroeconomic policies and are not merely driven by speculative motive. The association between futures price and the macroeconomic variables will help in developing policies aimed at stabilizing food prices. For our study we have considered the five major oil and oilseed contracts traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. We have considered the nearest three month contracts traded on the exchange. In our study we observe that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth rate have significant impact on futures price volatility. We have also found a significant relation between futures price volatility and inflation. These findings have important implications for commodity production decision making, commodity hedging and commodity price forecasting.
粮食价格上涨导致粮食市场的不确定性,并降低了实际收入,因为粮食在最不发达国家家庭支出中所占比例相对较大。由于食品价格主要受基本需求和供应条件的支配,我们分析了期货价格波动与基本宏观经济变量的关系。期货价格波动性与潜在宏观变量之间的紧密联系意味着期货市场的运作是基于宏观经济政策的影响,而不仅仅是由投机动机驱动的。期货价格与宏观经济变量之间的关联将有助于制定旨在稳定粮食价格的政策。在我们的研究中,我们考虑了在国家商品和衍生品交易所交易的五大石油和油籽合约。我们已经考虑了在交易所交易的最近的三个月合约。在我们的研究中,我们观察到国内生产总值(GDP)和工业生产指数(IIP)增长率对期货价格波动有显著影响。我们还发现期货价格波动与通货膨胀之间存在显著关系。这些发现对商品生产决策、商品套期保值和商品价格预测具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Econometric Review
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