Pub Date : 2023-10-16DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.92331
Alane Siqueira Rocha
Editorial
编辑
{"title":"Editorial da Edição Especial - 30 anos do Curso de Ciências Atuariais da UFC","authors":"Alane Siqueira Rocha","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.92331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.92331","url":null,"abstract":"Editorial","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136142738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-19DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.88631
Renata Edvania Costa Gouveia, Edvan Cruz Aguiar
The adoption of Social Media Marketing (SMM) is increasingly present in the daily life of companies. However, little is known about this phenomenon in the context of micro and small businesses (MSEs). The research aimed to analyze the SMM adoption process by MSEs, based on a study with 338 entrepreneurs linked to the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support System (Sebrae), using Structural Equation Modeling. It was found that technical knowledge, cost reduction, and pressure from customers and competitors generate benefits perceived by entrepreneurs concerning the use of the tool, leading to a higher level of use. The work contributes to the step in which it brings evidence that helps to understand the determinants of adopting SMM in the context of MSEs.
社会化媒体营销(Social Media Marketing, SMM)越来越多地出现在企业的日常生活中。然而，在微型和小型企业(MSEs)的背景下，人们对这一现象知之甚少。该研究旨在分析中小微企业采用中小微企业管理的过程，基于对338名与巴西小微企业支持系统(Sebrae)相关的企业家的研究，使用结构方程模型。研究发现，技术知识、成本降低以及来自顾客和竞争者的压力产生了企业家在使用工具方面感受到的利益，从而导致更高的使用水平。这项工作有助于提供证据，帮助理解在中小微企业背景下采用SMM的决定因素。
{"title":"Antecedents of the adoption of Social Media Marketing by micro and small enterprises","authors":"Renata Edvania Costa Gouveia, Edvan Cruz Aguiar","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.88631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.88631","url":null,"abstract":"The adoption of Social Media Marketing (SMM) is increasingly present in the daily life of companies. However, little is known about this phenomenon in the context of micro and small businesses (MSEs). The research aimed to analyze the SMM adoption process by MSEs, based on a study with 338 entrepreneurs linked to the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support System (Sebrae), using Structural Equation Modeling. It was found that technical knowledge, cost reduction, and pressure from customers and competitors generate benefits perceived by entrepreneurs concerning the use of the tool, leading to a higher level of use. The work contributes to the step in which it brings evidence that helps to understand the determinants of adopting SMM in the context of MSEs.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135108809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.83379
Jaime Phasquinel Lopes Cavalcante
The risk management business evolves rapidly, so actuaries are faced with the need for new analysis methodologies. However, the use of incorrect methodologies for actuarial modeling can have serious implications for strategic decision making. This study aims to introduce the simplex regression model as a suitable methodology for actuarial modeling of data whose values belong to the unit interval. Using a risk management data set, the linear model with normal distribution and the proposed regression model were compared. The evaluation of the models presented concluded by the quality of the modeling through simplex regression, indicating the quality of this method as a new analysis tool for the actuarial context.
{"title":"The simplex regression model as a methodology of actuarial analysis","authors":"Jaime Phasquinel Lopes Cavalcante","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.83379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.83379","url":null,"abstract":"The risk management business evolves rapidly, so actuaries are faced with the need for new analysis methodologies. However, the use of incorrect methodologies for actuarial modeling can have serious implications for strategic decision making. This study aims to introduce the simplex regression model as a suitable methodology for actuarial modeling of data whose values belong to the unit interval. Using a risk management data set, the linear model with normal distribution and the proposed regression model were compared. The evaluation of the models presented concluded by the quality of the modeling through simplex regression, indicating the quality of this method as a new analysis tool for the actuarial context.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134972917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.83438
Elaine Cristina Gama dos Santos, Cristiane Silva Corrêa
Given the context of demographic changes and population aging, this article aimed to estimate the need (ND) for hiring municipal public workers in Brazil, between 2020 and 2030, for the professional categories of Education, Health and Others. Based on data from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS, 2018), the methodology used was the microsimulation model for projecting civil servants by Brazilian municipality. The results suggest that the ND will increase for the set of professional categories and higher in the Southeast and Northeast regions, however, it remains negative for the Education category and positive for the Health category.
{"title":"Hiring of workers in the municipal public sector: A projection of the demographic need by brazilian municipality, 2020 to 2030","authors":"Elaine Cristina Gama dos Santos, Cristiane Silva Corrêa","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.83438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.83438","url":null,"abstract":"Given the context of demographic changes and population aging, this article aimed to estimate the need (ND) for hiring municipal public workers in Brazil, between 2020 and 2030, for the professional categories of Education, Health and Others. Based on data from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS, 2018), the methodology used was the microsimulation model for projecting civil servants by Brazilian municipality. The results suggest that the ND will increase for the set of professional categories and higher in the Southeast and Northeast regions, however, it remains negative for the Education category and positive for the Health category.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134973152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.83343
Ismael Sampaio Bastos, Leonardo Bruno Vana, Carolina Cardoso Novo
The study aimed to propose a new approach to the chain-ladder method using for that Gaussian Fuzzy Numbers. For that, the text introduces concepts and establishes new perspectives that allow not just the use of this kind of fuzzy number in the claim estimation context but also in other areas of knowledge, corroborating, in that way, to the expansion of the adoption of fuzzy logics in a general sense. The results indicates that the adoption of the proposed method offers huge benefits when compared to the traditional approach and previous works exploring other kind of fuzzy numbers.
Keywords: claim reserves; fuzzy logic; fuzzy numbers; IBNR.
{"title":"Estimating IBNR claim reserves using Gaussian Fuzzy Numbers","authors":"Ismael Sampaio Bastos, Leonardo Bruno Vana, Carolina Cardoso Novo","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.83343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.83343","url":null,"abstract":"The study aimed to propose a new approach to the chain-ladder method using for that Gaussian Fuzzy Numbers. For that, the text introduces concepts and establishes new perspectives that allow not just the use of this kind of fuzzy number in the claim estimation context but also in other areas of knowledge, corroborating, in that way, to the expansion of the adoption of fuzzy logics in a general sense. The results indicates that the adoption of the proposed method offers huge benefits when compared to the traditional approach and previous works exploring other kind of fuzzy numbers.
 Keywords: claim reserves; fuzzy logic; fuzzy numbers; IBNR.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134972894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.83332
Fernanda Beatriz Junges da Silva, Leonardo Baltazar da Silveira
Over the last 20 years, the Supplementary Health Market has seen a reduction in the number of Health Companies due to insolvency. There are several risks that can lead to this factor, and one of the main ones is the pricing risk. With this in mind, the present study sought to analyze the efficiency of different methods in calculating the pricing of supplementary health plans. To carry out the pricing, Monte Carlo simulation methods, Collective Risk Theory and Credibility Theory were used. The study found that the Credibility Theory showed the greatest efficiency for calculating the pricing of health plans, among the three methods analyzed, for the sample used.
{"title":"Pricing of health plans: An efficiency analysis of different calculation methodologies","authors":"Fernanda Beatriz Junges da Silva, Leonardo Baltazar da Silveira","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.83332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.83332","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last 20 years, the Supplementary Health Market has seen a reduction in the number of Health Companies due to insolvency. There are several risks that can lead to this factor, and one of the main ones is the pricing risk. With this in mind, the present study sought to analyze the efficiency of different methods in calculating the pricing of supplementary health plans. To carry out the pricing, Monte Carlo simulation methods, Collective Risk Theory and Credibility Theory were used. The study found that the Credibility Theory showed the greatest efficiency for calculating the pricing of health plans, among the three methods analyzed, for the sample used.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134972895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.83423
Alana Katielli Nogueira Azevedo
The study aimed to predict cyber claims in companies in the banking sector using a decision tree. To this end, 683 cases of cyber losses were extracted from an operational risk database. The independent variables considered in the modeling were the region of domicile, the size of the company and, as main explanatory variable, revenue. The classification reached 89% of global hits. The modeling in question guarantees a good classification quality and better fit when compared to traditional GLM modeling. The results of this work are useful and can act in an innovative way as a tool to support the decision making of insurers, aiming at useful responses to the management of cyber risks.
{"title":"Decision tree applied in classifying the occurrence of cyber claims in banking sector companies","authors":"Alana Katielli Nogueira Azevedo","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.83423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.83423","url":null,"abstract":"The study aimed to predict cyber claims in companies in the banking sector using a decision tree. To this end, 683 cases of cyber losses were extracted from an operational risk database. The independent variables considered in the modeling were the region of domicile, the size of the company and, as main explanatory variable, revenue. The classification reached 89% of global hits. The modeling in question guarantees a good classification quality and better fit when compared to traditional GLM modeling. The results of this work are useful and can act in an innovative way as a tool to support the decision making of insurers, aiming at useful responses to the management of cyber risks.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134972892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of the study is to analyze the influence of ownership structure on earnings smoothing practices in companies listed on B3. The analysis considered multivariate linear regression for a sample of 203 observations, with data referring to the period 2016-2021. The results indicated that the greater presence of international and institutional investors are factors that mitigate earnings smoothing practices. In turn, ownership concentration, government ownership and growth in the number of shareholders in the stock market did not prove to be determinants of income smoothing. The results suggest that the low participation of institutional and international investors may make it necessary to use additional corporate governance mechanisms.
{"title":"Influence of ownership structure on earnings smoothing in companies listed on B3","authors":"Clademir Teixeira, Sady Mazzioni, Cristian Baú Dal Magro, Caroline Keidann Soschinski, Fernanda Prigol Valmorbida","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.85161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.85161","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the study is to analyze the influence of ownership structure on earnings smoothing practices in companies listed on B3. The analysis considered multivariate linear regression for a sample of 203 observations, with data referring to the period 2016-2021. The results indicated that the greater presence of international and institutional investors are factors that mitigate earnings smoothing practices. In turn, ownership concentration, government ownership and growth in the number of shareholders in the stock market did not prove to be determinants of income smoothing. The results suggest that the low participation of institutional and international investors may make it necessary to use additional corporate governance mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135826458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo realizar uma análise dos fatores determinantes da evasão universitária na Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS). O estudo foi conduzido com base em uma amostra representativa de alunos da UNISINOS, ingressantes no período de 2005 a 2008, tendo avaliado, por meio de regressão Logit, a relação entre variáveis socioeconômicas e evasão discente. Concluiu-se que algumas variáveis possuíam relação crescente à evasão, como a variável disciplinas canceladas, em que um número maior de cancelamentos resultou em uma probabilidade mais elevada de evasão. Outras variáveis possuíam relação inversa, como a variável disciplinas cursadas, na qual um número maior de disciplinas cursadas por semestre reduzia as chances de evasão.
{"title":"Fatores determinantes da evasão universitária: Uma análise com alunos da UNISINOS","authors":"Vanessa Viégas Alves Furtado, Tiago Wickstrom Alves","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.88622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.88622","url":null,"abstract":"O presente trabalho tem como objetivo realizar uma análise dos fatores determinantes da evasão universitária na Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS). O estudo foi conduzido com base em uma amostra representativa de alunos da UNISINOS, ingressantes no período de 2005 a 2008, tendo avaliado, por meio de regressão Logit, a relação entre variáveis socioeconômicas e evasão discente. Concluiu-se que algumas variáveis possuíam relação crescente à evasão, como a variável disciplinas canceladas, em que um número maior de cancelamentos resultou em uma probabilidade mais elevada de evasão. Outras variáveis possuíam relação inversa, como a variável disciplinas cursadas, na qual um número maior de disciplinas cursadas por semestre reduzia as chances de evasão.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136216095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.19094/contextus.2023.88624
Ana Luiza Leite, Dannyela da Cunha Lemos, Wilnei Aldir Schneider
Objetivou-se analisar a produção científica disponível em bases de dados internacionais sobre o teletrabalho, com o intuito de verificar o volume da produção e identificar o foco de estudo dos artigos, por meio da revisão integrativa. A produção científica é crescente, com grande quantidade de artigos de revisão (12). Em relação aos artigos empíricos, com abordagem predominantemente quantitativa, nota-se a baixa publicação em organizações públicas. O foco dos estudos está na busca de impactos causados pela implementação do teletrabalho ao trabalhador e à organização. Identifica-se que há poucos estudos de cunho longitudinal e poucos combinando os diversos atores envolvidos no teletrabalho, principalmente em relação às equipes de trabalho.
{"title":"Teletrabalho: Uma revisão integrativa da literatura internacional","authors":"Ana Luiza Leite, Dannyela da Cunha Lemos, Wilnei Aldir Schneider","doi":"10.19094/contextus.2023.88624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2023.88624","url":null,"abstract":"Objetivou-se analisar a produção científica disponível em bases de dados internacionais sobre o teletrabalho, com o intuito de verificar o volume da produção e identificar o foco de estudo dos artigos, por meio da revisão integrativa. A produção científica é crescente, com grande quantidade de artigos de revisão (12). Em relação aos artigos empíricos, com abordagem predominantemente quantitativa, nota-se a baixa publicação em organizações públicas. O foco dos estudos está na busca de impactos causados pela implementação do teletrabalho ao trabalhador e à organização. Identifica-se que há poucos estudos de cunho longitudinal e poucos combinando os diversos atores envolvidos no teletrabalho, principalmente em relação às equipes de trabalho.","PeriodicalId":32836,"journal":{"name":"Contextus","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136216096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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