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Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatları ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisinin Asimetrik Fourier Nedensellik Analizi ile İncelenmesi 在土耳其,汽油价格的近似傅立叶过程分析和卷轴交叉关联
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.26650/istjecon2021-1019608
Fatma Kızılkaya
Oil-importing developing countries such as Turkey may be adversely affected by the increase in oil prices, which can raise production costs and the overall level of consumer prices. Increases in oil prices in international markets may also adversely affect the foreign trade balance of oil-importing countries. In this study, annual data for the period 1960–2019 in Turkey are used to investigate asymmetric causality relationships between oil prices and real exchange rate variables. Causality relationships between oil prices and real exchange-rate series, and between positive and negative shocks of these series, are examined using the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto method. The results show no symmetric causality relationship between oil prices and real exchange rate variables. However, a one-way causality relationship is revealed from positive oil price shocks to positive real exchange rate shocks, indicating that an increase in oil prices causes an increase in the real exchange rate in Turkey. According to these results, asymmetric effects should be considered when examining the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in Turkey. EXTENDED ABSTRACT Petroleum and petroleum products are vital for the continuous operation of economic operations in countries around the world. Petroleum products are also an important foreign trade commodity that generates considerable income for oil-exporting countries, as well as an imperative production input of significant expenditure for oil-importing countries. These two opposing effects also represent an essential export/import commodity subject to trade between countries. Export revenue from petroleum products in the international market and import expenditure for petroleum products are among the critical variables that determine countries’ macroeconomic performance. For this reason, in the face of sudden shocks in global markets (e.g., oil supply–demand and exchange rate shocks), countries may face adverse conditions, such as stagnant economic growth, decreased foreign trade, and inflation, which can have negative effects on national welfare. like dollar such
像土耳其这样的石油进口发展中国家可能会受到油价上涨的不利影响,这可能会提高生产成本和消费者价格的总体水平。国际市场石油价格的上涨也可能对石油进口国的对外贸易平衡产生不利影响。在本研究中,使用土耳其1960-2019年的年度数据来研究油价与实际汇率变量之间的不对称因果关系。使用傅立叶Toda-Yamamoto方法检验了石油价格与实际汇率系列之间的因果关系,以及这些系列的正冲击和负冲击之间的因果关系。结果表明,油价与实际汇率变量之间不存在对称的因果关系。然而,从正的油价冲击到正的实际汇率冲击,揭示了单向的因果关系,表明油价上涨导致土耳其实际汇率上涨。根据这些结果,在检查土耳其油价和汇率之间的关系时应考虑不对称效应。石油和石油产品对世界各国经济的持续运行至关重要。石油产品也是石油出口国产生可观收入的重要外贸商品,也是石油进口国重要支出的必要生产投入。这两种相反的影响也代表了国家间贸易的基本出口/进口商品。国际市场上石油产品的出口收入和石油产品的进口支出是决定各国宏观经济表现的关键变量。因此,面对全球市场的突然冲击(如石油供需和汇率冲击),各国可能面临不利条件,如经济增长停滞,对外贸易减少和通货膨胀,这可能对国家福利产生负面影响。像美元一样
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引用次数: 0
Inequality and the Import Demand in Turkey 土耳其的不平等与进口需求
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.26650/istjecon2021-943291
Zühal Özbay Daş
Citation: Ozbay-Das, Z. (2021). Inequality and the import demand in Turkey. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi Istanbul Journal of Economics, 71(2), 395-410. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-943291 ABSTRACT The study aims to see whether the long-run relation between inequality and import demand exists in Turkey. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique is used in this study to estimate the long-run relationships between real imports, income, relative price, real exports, and inequality for the period 1982-2015. The results revealed that the income elasticity of imports is greater than one as the literature suggests. The sign of the coefficient of relative price and its magnitude is also compatible with the literature, while it is not statistically significant. However, the results further reflect that inequality is positively associated with real imports in Turkey contrary to assumptions of the relation between inequality and imports that is found to be negative for lower income countries in some studies. Short-run coefficients reflect that real income and relative prices are associated with real imports, whereas exports and not surprisingly, inequality variables are not in the shortrun. The coefficient of income parameter is less in magnitude in the short-run but still greater than one. However, the sign of the coefficient of the relative price turns out to be positive in the short-run.
引文:ozbaye - das, Z.(2021)。土耳其的不平等与进口需求。İstanbul İktisat Dergisi İstanbul Economics, 71(2), 395-410。https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-943291摘要本研究旨在考察土耳其不平等与进口需求之间是否存在长期关系。本研究使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整技术来估计1982-2015年期间实际进口、收入、相对价格、实际出口和不平等之间的长期关系。结果表明,进口商品的收入弹性如文献所示大于1。相对价格系数及其大小的符号也与文献相符,但不具有统计学意义。然而,结果进一步反映,不平等与土耳其的实际进口呈正相关,这与一些研究发现不平等与进口之间的关系对低收入国家是负相关的假设相反。短期系数反映了实际收入和相对价格与实际进口相关,而出口和不出所料的不平等变量不在短期内。收入参数的系数在短期内量级较小,但仍大于1。然而,在短期内,相对价格系数的符号是正的。
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach 土耳其经济增长与税收的非线性关系:隐含协整方法
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-908769
Merve Altaylar
The tax revenues, which constitute the most important income item of the state, provide the necessary financing for sustainable economic growth in evolved countries, development efforts in developing economies, and form the basis of social welfare. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and tax revenues is significant and numerous empirical studies have been carried out on this subject. However, there is no study testing the hidden cointegration. This paper aims to test the presence of hidden cointegration between economic growth and tax revenues and intends to develop further typologies. To test the relationship, data on the ratio of annual tax revenues/ GDP between 1985-2018 in Turkey was used, and Hidden Cointegration Approach developed by Granger and Yoon (2002) and crouching error correction model were applied. The analysis results demonstrated that the tax revenues decreased across variables and that there was a cointegration relationship in periods when the GDP increased. This manuscript is a contribution to the literature since a different technique was performed to examine the relationship between growth and tax revenues, and the results obtained will be crucial for decision-makers.
税收收入是国家最重要的收入项目,为发达国家的可持续经济增长和发展中经济体的发展努力提供必要的资金,并构成社会福利的基础。因此,经济增长与税收收入之间的关系是重要的,并且对此进行了大量的实证研究。然而,目前还没有研究对隐性协整进行检验。本文旨在检验经济增长与税收收入之间是否存在隐性协整,并进一步发展类型学。为了检验这一关系,我们使用了1985-2018年土耳其年度税收收入/ GDP比率的数据,并使用了Granger和Yoon(2002)开发的隐协整方法和蹲伏误差修正模型。分析结果表明,税收收入在各变量间呈下降趋势,且在GDP增长时期存在协整关系。这份手稿是对文献的贡献,因为采用了不同的技术来检查增长与税收收入之间的关系,所获得的结果对决策者至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Kapitalist Gelişim İçinde Samsun Köylüsü: Bir Alan Araştırmasının Gösterdikleri 三星村的资本主义发展:一个怎样的田野调查
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/istjecon2021-929145
Ezgi Turmuş Binici
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引用次数: 0
Öğrencilerin Girişimcilik Eğilimi Üzerinde Aile Etkisinin Çok Yönlü Frekans Tabloları Analiziyle Belirlenmesi 在学生输入法上计算与多个频率卡的关系。
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/istjecon2021-915975
Sema Ulutürk Akman
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引用次数: 1
Introducing the Moniac: Its Historical Process in the Istanbul University Faculty of Economics 在伊斯坦布尔大学经济学院介绍Moniac:它的历史进程
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-944190
H. Bektaş
Monetary National Income Analog Computer (MONIAC) is a hydraulic machine that we can describe as an analog simulator modeling macroeconomic relationships. It was invented by the famous economist A. W. Phillips in 1949 and produced in limited numbers. The circulation of water in the machine shows the circulation of money in the economy. The economic behaviors of units such as households, firms, government, export, and import segments, and the economic variables by which these behaviors are affected can be observed while the water circulates the machine. The working principle of this machine reflects the assumptions of both Keynesian and Classical economics schools regarding economic functioning. The machine was brought to Istanbul University Faculty of Economics in the 1950s, by Prof. Dr. Besim Ustunel, one of the late faculty members. A sensational scientific production for the international academic community at that time, thus, was brought to Turkey in a very short period of time. The fact that the machine was introduced to Turkish higher education shortly after its invention is an important indicator of the ability of the Faculty of Economics to adapt to current scientific developments. Although MONIAC has been reoperational with a project initiated by the Faculty of Economics in 2017, it is not possible to use the machine actively in lessons today, which used to be one of its primary functions. However, based on this analog machine, the digital simulation that we carry out within the scope of the project can be used as an educational tool. MONIAC, in its restored original form, has been preserved by the Faculty of Economics as a historical value of the Faculty.
货币国民收入模拟计算机(MONIAC)是一种液压机器,我们可以将其描述为模拟宏观经济关系的模拟器。它是由著名经济学家A.W.Phillips于1949年发明的,产量有限。水在机器中的循环表明了货币在经济中的循环。当水在机器中循环时,可以观察到家庭、企业、政府、出口和进口部门等单位的经济行为,以及这些行为受到影响的经济变量。这台机器的工作原理反映了凯恩斯主义和古典经济学学派对经济运行的假设。这台机器是在20世纪50年代由已故教员之一Besim Ustunel教授博士带到伊斯坦布尔大学经济学院的。因此,一部轰动当时国际学术界的科学作品在很短的时间内被带到了土耳其。该机器在发明后不久就被引入土耳其高等教育,这是经济学院适应当前科学发展能力的一个重要指标。尽管MONIAC已于2017年通过经济学院发起的一个项目重新开放,但如今不可能在课堂上积极使用该机器,而这曾经是其主要功能之一。然而,基于这种模拟机器,我们在项目范围内进行的数字模拟可以用作教育工具。MONIAC以其修复后的原始形式被经济学院作为学院的历史价值加以保存。
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引用次数: 0
Türkiye Ekonomisine Kaldoryan Bakış (1980-2020) 土耳其Ekonomisine Kaldoryan Bakış(1980-2020)
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-886478
Gülbahar Atasever
The most basic economic indicators used in international comparisons are inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic growth rate, and current account balance. In this context, when these variables are taken together within the framework of an index, they offer a practical perspective on a single country basis or in international comparisons. In this study, variables were analyzed using the TOPSIS method. During the 1980–2020 period, the narrow context of the aforementioned variables for the core, extended core, Keynesian, and heterodox Boratav year indices were calculated to make comparisons on the basis of time periods in the Turkish economy. The results obtained indicate that breakdowns in the indices by year are very similar; however, the indices differ considerably in interpreting periodic macroeconomic performance. Regarding the designated best period in terms of macroeconomic performance, while1980–1989 was the period in extended core and Keynesian indices, it was 1990–1999 according to the Boratav heterodox index, 2010–2020 according to the narrow core index, and 2000–2009 according to TOPSIS method. This result demonstrates that the Kaldorian perspective is insufficient for efficiency comparisons between periods, as factors such as human capital, productivity, institutions, and populations are excluded from the analysis.
国际比较中使用的最基本的经济指标是通货膨胀率、失业率、经济增长率和经常账户余额。在这种情况下,当这些变量在指数的框架内结合在一起时,它们在单个国家的基础上或在国际比较中提供了一个实用的视角。在本研究中,使用TOPSIS方法对变量进行分析。在1980-2020年期间,计算了核心、扩展核心、凯恩斯主义和非正统Boratav年指数的上述变量的狭义背景,以根据土耳其经济的时间段进行比较。所获得的结果表明,按年份分列的指数非常相似;然而,这些指数在解释周期性宏观经济表现方面存在很大差异。关于宏观经济表现的最佳时期,1980年至1989年是扩展核心指数和凯恩斯主义指数的时期,根据Boratav外差指数为1990年至1999年,根据窄核心指数为2010年至2020年,根据TOPSIS方法为2000年至2009年。这一结果表明,由于人力资本、生产力、制度和人口等因素被排除在分析之外,Kaldorian视角不足以进行各时期之间的效率比较。
{"title":"Türkiye Ekonomisine Kaldoryan Bakış (1980-2020)","authors":"Gülbahar Atasever","doi":"10.26650/ISTJECON2021-886478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-886478","url":null,"abstract":"The most basic economic indicators used in international comparisons are inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic growth rate, and current account balance. In this context, when these variables are taken together within the framework of an index, they offer a practical perspective on a single country basis or in international comparisons. In this study, variables were analyzed using the TOPSIS method. During the 1980–2020 period, the narrow context of the aforementioned variables for the core, extended core, Keynesian, and heterodox Boratav year indices were calculated to make comparisons on the basis of time periods in the Turkish economy. The results obtained indicate that breakdowns in the indices by year are very similar; however, the indices differ considerably in interpreting periodic macroeconomic performance. Regarding the designated best period in terms of macroeconomic performance, while1980–1989 was the period in extended core and Keynesian indices, it was 1990–1999 according to the Boratav heterodox index, 2010–2020 according to the narrow core index, and 2000–2009 according to TOPSIS method. This result demonstrates that the Kaldorian perspective is insufficient for efficiency comparisons between periods, as factors such as human capital, productivity, institutions, and populations are excluded from the analysis.","PeriodicalId":33072,"journal":{"name":"Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49488111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Avrupa Birliği’nin Enerji Güvenliği: Enerji İthalatı Bağımlılığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi 欧盟能源安全:能源出口协会与经济增长关系
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-942116
Serap Elüstü
Enerji piyasasinin cografi kosullar nedeniyle oligopolistik bir yapiya sahip olmasi, bazi ulkeler icin enerji urunlerinin ithal edilmesini zorunlu kilmaktadir. Ozellikle Avrupa Birligi, politik acidan riskleri olan Rusya ve MENA (Orta Dogu ve Kuzey Afrika) bolgesi ile bagimliliga ulasan onemli enerji iliskilerine sahiptir. Enerji guvenligini aksatan bu durum, AB icin ekonomik acidan risk olusturmaktadir. Calismada AB’ye uye ve aday ulkelerin 2014-2018 donemi petrol ve petrol urunleri, dogal gaz, kati yakit ithalati ve enerji ithalati bagimliliginin ekonomik buyume ile iliskisi panel veri analizi ile arastirilmaktadir. Modele yonelik temel varsayim testlerinin sonucunda Driscoll-Kraay tahmin modelinin kullanilmasi uygun bulunmustur. Bulgular, AB ulkelerinin petrol ve petrol urunleri ithalatinin ekonomik buyumeleri uzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamli ve pozitif; enerji ithalati bagimliliginin ise ekonomik buyumeleri uzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamli ve negatif yonlu oldugu seklindedir. Dogal gaz ve kati yakit ithalatinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsiz bulunmustur. Petrol ve petrol urunleri ithalatinin ekonomik buyume ile ayni yonde hareket etmesi, Avrupa Birligi’nde GSYIH’nin buyuk kisminin hizmetler sektorune bagli olmasi, hizmetler sektorunun en buyuk parcasini ise petrol ve petrol urunlerinin yogun olarak kullanildigi ulastirma sektorunun olusturmasi ile aciklanabilir. Enerji ithalati bagimliligi ise beklendigi uzere ekonomik buyumeyi olumsuz yonde etkilemektedir. Calisma sonucuna gore AB’de yenilenebilir enerji kullanimi, enerji verimliliginin artirilmasi gibi enerji ithalati bagimliligini azaltici politikalarin reel GSYIH’yi artirici etki yaratmasi beklenmektedir. Enerjinin ithal edildigi kaynaklarin cesitlendirilmesinin de, ihracatcidan kaynaklanan tedarik risklerini aza indirmesi ve boylece enerji guvenligini olumlu etkilemesi ongorulmektedir.
能源市场的地理成本具有寡头垄断的工厂,一些国家很难进口能源供应。特别是,欧盟与俄罗斯和中东和北非地区有着良好的能源联系,这两个地区面临着政治紧急情况的风险。除了能源安全,欧盟还面临着经济紧急情况的风险。2014年至2018年,AB’ye uye的Calismada一直在使用汽油和汽油。作为单一基本假设检验的结果,Driscoll-Kray估计模型是合适的。这些发现具有统计意义,对从欧盟国家进口石油和石油流动的经济影响是积极的;在没有经济购买的情况下,能源进口负担在统计上是显著的和负的。天然气和致命燃料消耗的经济影响在统计上毫无意义。除了对石油和石油链的经济购买,GSYIH在欧盟的购买可以减少为服务业的出现,而服务业的最高部分是作为废物的石油和石油链条的生产。能源消耗低,经济影响巨大。因此,calisma预计在欧盟创造可再生能源使用,以减少能源消耗和能源消耗等能源消耗。停止能源转移是为了降低运输风险,减少能源安全的有效影响。
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引用次数: 2
Covid-19 Pandemisinin Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sektörü İstihdamı Üzerine Etkileri 新冠肺炎流行病土耳其银行
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-933821
Kadir Tuna
Covid-19 krizinde en buyuk degisim ve donusumun istihdam piyasasinda olmasi beklenmektedir. Bircok sektorde faaliyet gosteren isletme salgin doneminde esnek, uzaktan ve hibrit calisma modellerini kalici hale getirmeyi planlamaktadir. Boyle bir degisimin dunya ekonomisini buyuk bir issizlik dalgasi ile karsi karsiya birakacagi beklenmektedir. Bu surecten en fazla etkilenecek sektorlerin basinda bankacilik gelmektedir. Bankacilik, salgin doneminde esnek ve uzaktan calisma modellerini en fazla uygulayan sektorlerin basinda gelmektedir. Bankacilik sektorunun en buyuk avantaji, sube disi alternatif dagitim kanallari olarak tanimlanan ATM, cagri merkezi, internet ve mobil bankacilik hizmetlerine sahip olmasidir. Salgin doneminde sube disi kanallarin yogun kullanimi, sektorun istihdam yapisini donusume zorlamaktadir. Ulkemizde halihazirda bankacilik sektoru teknolojiye ve insan kaynagina en fazla yatirim yapan sektorlerin basinda gelmektedir. Bankacilik sektoru salgin doneminde alternatif dagitim kanallarini kullanarak, musterilerin subeye gitme ihtiyaci kalmadan taleplerini karsiladi. Bu calisma, pandemi doneminde Turkiye’de bankalarda sube disi alternatif kanallarinin kullanim yogunlugunun sektorun istihdam yapisini nasil etkiledigi analiz edilmistir.
在新冠肺炎,我不是世界上最好的人,我的冰淇淋预计会进入热门市场。在许多行业,计划在供应链中创建灵活、远程和混合的校准模型。衰退的世界经济预计将被比作低收入浪潮。在最具影响力的行业,这种形象基本上就是破产。银行业务是救助池中灵活和远程校准模型的基础。银行是一家先进的银行,它是ATM、银行、互联网和移动银行的替代品。大气中地铁通道的开发被迫冻结了该行业的热电厂。在我国,银行业以技术和人力资源为基础。银行业在不需要坐地铁的情况下,使用了替代性的达吉蒂姆渠道,满足了他们的需求。这个calisium分析了在我的疫情池中,土耳其银行使用地铁通道如何影响该行业森林的工业开发。
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引用次数: 1
Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi 加密货币气象应用:比特币实例和疾病对新冠肺炎的影响
IF 0.3 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-879423
E. Daşdemir
This study tests the validity of the quantity theory for cryptocurrencies. They have been on the agenda of financial markets in recent years, and they are perceived as a new type of money. Considering the historical development of money, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is similar to the evolution of traditional currency. Therefore, great deficiency exists in the in the existing literature because money rules are not tested for cryptocurrencies, which have been referred to as the money of the future. Within the scope of this study, releases and the use of cryptocurrencies were comparatively discussed with other types of money, and Fisher’s quantity theory model was tested for crypto coins. Using the market value and amount of Bitcoin, the time series analysis is performed with monthly frequency data covering a period from August 2010 to April 2021. As a result of the analysis, it is understood that a linear relationship prevails between the amount and value of Bitcoin. The main reason for this situation can be explained by cryptocurrency mining activities that use the blockchain method. the econometric analysis shows that the Covid-19 outbreak has strengthened the positive relationship between Bitcoin amount and market value. To understand the results of the analysis and fill the gap in the literature, issues such as money supply, emission and seigniorage income for cryptocurrencies are discussed and the operating processes for each are explained. This study contributes to the literature by showing that the Fisher Quantity Theory is not valid for cryptocurrencies.
本研究检验了数量理论对加密货币的有效性。近年来,它们一直在金融市场的议事日程上,它们被视为一种新型货币。从货币的历史发展来看,加密货币的出现与传统货币的演变类似。因此,现有文献中存在很大的不足,因为货币规则没有针对被称为未来货币的加密货币进行测试。在本研究的范围内,对加密货币的发行和使用与其他类型的货币进行了比较讨论,并对加密货币进行了Fisher数量理论模型的检验。使用比特币的市场价值和数量,对2010年8月至2021年4月期间的每月频率数据进行时间序列分析。分析的结果是,比特币的数量和价值之间普遍存在线性关系。这种情况的主要原因可以通过使用区块链方法的加密货币挖掘活动来解释。计量经济学分析表明,新冠肺炎疫情强化了比特币数量与市场价值的正相关关系。为了理解分析的结果并填补文献中的空白,讨论了加密货币的货币供应、发行和铸币收入等问题,并解释了每种货币的操作过程。这项研究通过表明费雪数量理论对加密货币无效来为文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi
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