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Os Determinantes do Crédito Comercial Durante e Após a Crise Financeira Internacional de 2008 2008年国际金融危机前后贸易信贷的决定因素
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_56_4
C. Carreira, Pedro Silva
This work analyses the determinants of trade credit granted and received and the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on it. Using a sample of 96,417 Portuguese SMEs from the non-financial sector for the period 2010–2019, we found that trade credit plays an important role in firms' financing policies. Firms with better access to the credit market act as financial intermediaries and grant financing to firms that have difficulty accessing credit. Moreover, the use of trade credit seems to be a substitute for bank financing. We also found that firms use trade credit as a marketing tool to increase their sales. Finally, we found a slump in credit granted to customers after the 2008 financial crisis, which seems to mimic the contraction in aggregate bank credit.
这项工作分析了贸易信贷发放和接受的决定因素以及2008年金融危机对其的影响。我们对2010-2019年期间非金融部门的96417家葡萄牙中小企业进行了抽样调查,发现贸易信贷在企业融资政策中发挥着重要作用。能够更好地进入信贷市场的公司充当金融中介,向难以获得信贷的公司提供融资。此外,使用贸易信贷似乎可以替代银行融资。我们还发现,企业利用贸易信贷作为营销工具来增加销售额。最后,我们发现,2008年金融危机后,客户的信贷大幅下降,这似乎模仿了银行信贷总额的收缩。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Intangível e Produtividade das Empresas Portuguesas na Última Década (2010-2019) 过去十年葡萄牙企业的无形资本和生产率(2010-2019)
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_56_5
Nuno Gonçalves, C. Carreira
This article analyzes the effects of intangible capital on the productivity of Portuguese firms in the last decade. Intangible assets can increase the productivity of labor and productive factors. Although no consensus has been reached on standard principles and uniform methods for measuring intangible assets, the attempts of various investigators, such as those proposed in this research, pave the way for the development of a framework. To achieve this objective, a Cobb-Douglas production function was estimated at the firm level, where intangible capital is assumed as a productive factor. To perform a sectoral analysis, the model was estimated by activity sector. We also estimated the evolution of the contribution of intangible capital in two distinct periods 2010-14 (recession) and 2015-19 (recovery). The results obtained were to some extent expected, confirming the evidence of the positive effect of intangible assets on productivity. The intangible effect is greater in the sectors of Manufacturing and Construction, and inside the Manufacturing sector, the Textile industry is where the effect is larger. For the Trade and Business Services sector the effect is negative or null. Although intangible capital has a strong influence at the aggregate level, it has gradually lost its relevance. This result is understandable, given the low and decreasing levels of intangible investment and the continuous decrease in intangible capital during the decade.
本文分析了近十年来无形资本对葡萄牙企业生产率的影响。无形资产可以提高劳动和生产要素的生产率。尽管在衡量无形资产的标准原则和统一方法上尚未达成共识,但各种研究人员的尝试,例如本研究中提出的研究人员,为框架的发展铺平了道路。为了实现这一目标,在企业层面估计了柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,其中无形资本被假设为生产要素。为了进行部门分析,该模型按活动部门进行估计。我们还估算了2010-14年(衰退)和2015-19年(复苏)两个不同时期无形资本贡献的演变。所得结果在一定程度上是预期的,证实了无形资产对生产率有积极影响的证据。制造业和建筑业的无形效应较大,而在制造业内部,纺织业的无形效应较大。对于贸易和商业服务部门来说,这种影响是负面的或无效的。虽然无形资本在总量层面上具有强大的影响力,但它已经逐渐失去了相关性。这一结果是可以理解的,因为在过去的十年里,无形投资的水平很低,而且还在不断下降,无形资本也在不断减少。
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引用次数: 0
Responding to the global challenges of ‘Too Much, Too Little and Too Dirty’ Water: Towards a Safer and More Just Water Future 应对“水太多、太少、太脏”的全球挑战:迈向更安全、更公正的用水未来
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_56_3
R. Grafton, S. Fanaian, Julia Schaef
The world water crisis is manifest through ‘Too Much, Too Little and Too Dirty’ water at multiple scales from the local to the global. Understanding the key drivers and consequences of this water crisis, and who bears the biggest costs, is necessary to develop appropriate responses, at scale and over time. Using four framings: one, water stocks and limits; two, water rights and responsibilities; three, water values and prices; and four, green and grey water infrastructure, we review the challenges and possible responses. Using a water justice lens, we highlight the transitional and transformational pathways towards a safer and more just water future.
世界水危机表现为从地方到全球多个层面的“水太多、水太少和水太脏”。了解这场水危机的主要驱动因素和后果,以及谁将承担最大的成本,对于制定适当的大规模和长期应对措施是必要的。采用四种框架:一、水储量和限制;二、水权与责任;三是水的价值和价格;第四,绿色和灰色水基础设施,我们回顾了挑战和可能的应对措施。从水正义的角度出发,我们强调了通往更安全、更公正的水未来的过渡和转型途径。
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引用次数: 0
Transação de Créditos REDD em Mercados Internacionais de Carbono 国际碳市场中的REDD信贷交易
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_56_2
R. Rosa, Ramiro Parrado, Francesco Bosello
While several economic studies have looked into the role of REDD in climate policy, the interlinks between climate policy, international trade and agricultural markets have been only marginally considered. This paper adds to that discussion by developing a policy simulation exercise in which REDD credits can be traded in an international carbon market using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The model was extended to incorporate abatement cost curves of avoided deforestation from a partial equilibrium study, and to account for the corresponding induced effects on land and timber markets. We conclude that REDD may significantly reduce policy costs. A large number of REDD credits entering the carbon market would allow regions pertaining to the climate policy agreement to systematically emit above their targets. These results confirm that policy design may require limits to the use of REDD credits along with the creation of long-term incentives to promote a greener economy. Finally, when international competitiveness effects are taken into account, we show that the use of REDD as a means to foster developing countries’ participation in climate policy may not be sufficient.
虽然有几项经济研究探讨了REDD在气候政策中的作用,但气候政策、国际贸易和农业市场之间的相互联系只是得到了很少的考虑。本文通过开发一种政策模拟练习,使REDD信用可以使用递归动态可计算一般均衡模型在国际碳市场上进行交易,从而对这一讨论进行了补充。该模型得到扩展,纳入了部分平衡研究中避免砍伐森林的减少成本曲线,并解释了对土地和木材市场的相应诱导效应。我们得出结论,REDD可以显著降低政策成本。大量的REDD碳排放额度进入碳市场,将使与气候政策协议相关的地区有系统地超过其目标排放。这些结果证实,政策设计可能需要限制REDD信用额度的使用,同时建立促进绿色经济的长期激励机制。最后,当考虑到国际竞争力效应时,我们表明使用REDD作为促进发展中国家参与气候政策的手段可能还不够。
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引用次数: 0
Avaliação de Políticas Sustentáveis 可持续政策评估
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_56_1
Giuseppe Munda
Sustainability policy evaluation and assessment seeks to answer the key question, sustainability of what and whom? Consequently, sustainability issues are multidimensional in nature and feature a high degree of conflict, uncertainty and complexity. Social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) has been explicitly designed for public policies; it builds on formal modelling techniques whose main achievement is the fact that the use of different evaluation criteria translates directly into plurality of values and dimensions underpinning a policy process. SMCE aims at being inter/multi-disciplinary (with respect to the technical team), participatory (with respect to the community) and transparent. SMCE can help deal with three different types of sustainability-related policy issues: 1) epistemological uncertainty (human representation of a given policy problem necessarily reflects perceptions, values and interests of those structuring the problem); 2) complexity (the existence of different levels and scales at which a hierarchical system can be analyzed implies the unavoidable existence of non-equivalent descriptions of it both in space and time); and 3) mathematical manipulation rules of relevant information (compensability versus non-compensability, preference modelling of intensities of preference, mixed information on criterion scores, weights as trade-offs versus weights as importance coefficients, choice of a proper ranking algorithm). This paper focuses on the these three issues and provides an overview of the SMCE approaches to them.
可持续性政策评估和评估旨在回答关键问题,可持续性是什么和谁?因此,可持续性问题本质上是多方面的,具有高度的冲突、不确定性和复杂性。社会多标准评价(SMCE)已明确为公共政策设计;它建立在正式建模技术的基础上,其主要成就是使用不同的评估标准直接转化为支持政策过程的多个价值和维度。SMCE的目标是跨/多学科(就技术团队而言),参与性(就社区而言)和透明。SMCE可以帮助处理三种不同类型的与可持续性相关的政策问题:1)认识论的不确定性(人类对给定政策问题的表征必然反映了构建问题的人的看法、价值观和利益);2)复杂性(对一个层次系统进行分析的不同层次和尺度的存在意味着在空间和时间上不可避免地存在着对它的非等效描述);3)相关信息的数学操作规则(可补偿性与不可补偿性、偏好强度的偏好建模、标准分数的混合信息、作为权衡的权重与作为重要系数的权重、适当排序算法的选择)。本文着重讨论了这三个问题,并概述了SMCE解决这些问题的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Business Cycle Accounting for the COVID-19 Recession 新冠肺炎经济衰退的商业周期会计
Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_55_2
Daniel Fernandes
We apply the Business Cycle Accounting framework to the COVID-19 recession in the Euro Area and the United States. We conclude that the efficiency wedge had the most important role in the Euro Area, followed by the labor and investment wedges. In the United States, the labor wedge was the most crucial, with the investment wedge taking a second place. We present hypotheses, supported by our theoretical framework, for the dichotomy of the role of the efficiency wedge between the studied regions.
我们将商业周期会计框架应用于欧元区和美国的新冠肺炎经济衰退。我们得出结论,效率楔子在欧元区发挥了最重要的作用,其次是劳动力和投资楔子。在美国,劳动力楔子是最关键的,投资楔子位居第二。我们提出假设,由我们的理论框架支持,为研究区域之间的效率楔子的二分法的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Different Types of Creditors on Zombie Firm Creation 不同类型债权人在僵尸企业形成中的作用
Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_55_6
Carlos Carreira, J. Lopes
Despite the key role of trade creditors as sources of finance, the literature on their impact on the proliferation of zombie firms is rare. This study examines whether suppliers, such as banks, engage in “evergreen” lending to zombie firms and whether their behavior differs from that of banks. We found that highly productive, larger and younger firms are less likely to become zombie firms. The behavior of suppliers is, in fact, different from that of banks; they are indeed more cautious in lending to zombie firms. Unlike suppliers, banks seem to have contributed to the rise of resource misallocation, a key explanation for the productivity slowdown in the new century.
尽管贸易债权人作为资金来源发挥着关键作用,但关于其对僵尸企业扩散的影响的文献很少。这项研究考察了银行等供应商是否向僵尸企业提供“常青树”贷款,以及他们的行为是否与银行不同。我们发现,生产力高、规模大、年轻的公司不太可能成为僵尸公司。事实上,供应商的行为与银行的行为不同;他们在向僵尸企业放贷时确实更加谨慎。与供应商不同,银行似乎助长了资源错配的加剧,这是新世纪生产力放缓的关键解释。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation and the Financial Performance of Firms during the Great Recession and Recovery Period 创新与大衰退和复苏时期企业的财务绩效
Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_55_5
N. Gomes, Nuno Gonçalves
This study analyzes the relationship between innovation and financial constraints. To this end, a database extracted from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) and the System of Business Accounts (SCIE) was used. The sample consisted of 24,679 active companies operating in Portugal in the manufacturing and service industry between 2008 and 2016. A Recursive Bivariate Probit Model (RPBM) was used for making estimates. When analyzing the relationship between innovation and financial constraints, the results reveal a negative relationship between the two, confirming that firms that are financially constrained are more limited in their investments in R&D, and innovation is less accessible to them. The severity of the effects of financial constraints is heterogeneous across economic activities, strongly affecting innovative industries, while service industries appear to be the least affected. It was also observed that larger companies are better able to innovate. There was a positive relationship between innovation and the variables sales and exports, indicating that innovation will positively affect the financial results of companies.
本研究分析了创新与财务约束的关系。为此,使用了从社区创新调查(CIS)和商业账户系统(SCIE)中提取的数据库。样本包括2008年至2016年间在葡萄牙经营的24,679家活跃的制造业和服务业公司。采用递归双变量概率模型(RPBM)进行估计。在分析创新与财务约束之间的关系时,结果显示两者之间存在负相关关系,证实了受到财务约束的企业在研发投资方面更受限制,创新的可及性更低。金融约束影响的严重程度在经济活动中是不同的,对创新产业的影响很大,而服务业受到的影响似乎最小。研究还发现,大公司的创新能力更强。创新与销售和出口这两个变量之间存在正相关关系,表明创新对企业的财务业绩有正向影响。
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引用次数: 0
Market Power in Manufacturing and Services Industries 制造业和服务业的市场力量
Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_55_4
Leonor Mesquita, Carlos Carreira, R. Martins
This study analyzes the extent of the market power of the manufacturing and services industries in Portugal over the last decade. The results show that Portuguese industries are mostly operating under imperfect competition. Mark-ups are heterogeneous across industries, with services having higher mark-ups on average than manufacturing. The apparel and the administrative activities industries have the highest mark-ups; in turn, the food and the beverages industries have the lowest mark-ups, while the rubber and plastics industry seems to operate under competitive conditions. There is therefore room for improving product market competition in Portugal.
本研究分析了葡萄牙制造业和服务业在过去十年中的市场力量。结果表明,葡萄牙的工业大多在不完全竞争的情况下运作。各行业的加价是异质的,服务业的平均加价高于制造业。服装和行政活动行业的利润最高;反过来,食品和饮料行业的利润率最低,而橡胶和塑料行业似乎在竞争条件下运作。因此,葡萄牙有改善产品市场竞争的空间。
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引用次数: 0
The Changing Roles of young single women in Jordan before the Great Recession 大萧条前约旦年轻单身女性角色的变化
Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_55_1
Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, E. Giménez
Before the Great Recession, young single women in Jordan, like those in other Middle Eastern and North African countries with a strong Islamic cultural tradition, experienced important changes in social roles. In this paper, we claim that economic theory may help to understand some of these changing patterns. It is argued that liberalization in the Jordanian economy resulted in important changes in the Jordanian social contract regarding gender roles, school enrollment, labor participation, marriage, and fertility. In particular, three apparently disconnected contemporaneous developments may be interrelated: the increase in women's marriage age, the growth of young single women's participation in the labor market, and the increase in the young male unemployment rate. This process stopped in the late 2000s, both due to exogenous (the Great Recession after 2008 and the Syrian civil war in 2011) and endogenous (existing attitudes towards working women) reasons. We argue that economic conditions may play a role as the driving forces for social transformation, and opens a window for women's opportunities and empowerness.
在大衰退之前,约旦的年轻单身女性与其他具有强烈伊斯兰文化传统的中东和北非国家的女性一样,经历了社会角色的重要变化。在这篇论文中,我们声称经济理论可能有助于理解这些变化模式中的一些。有人认为,约旦经济的自由化导致约旦社会契约在性别角色、入学、劳动参与、婚姻和生育方面发生了重要变化。特别是,三个明显脱节的同期发展可能是相互关联的:女性结婚年龄的增加、年轻单身女性参与劳动力市场的增加以及年轻男性失业率的增加。这一进程在21世纪末停止,既有外部原因(2008年后的大衰退和2011年的叙利亚内战),也有内部原因(对职业女性的现有态度)。我们认为,经济条件可能是社会转型的驱动力,并为妇女的机会和权力打开了一扇窗户。
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引用次数: 0
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Notas Economicas
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