O défice tarifário e a possibilidade de haver rendas excessivas têm sido a principal fonte de polémica sobre a intervenção do Estado no setor elétrico nos últimos 25 anos e foram objeto de uma Comissão Parlamentar de Inquérito, cujo Relatório, assim como as declarações de voto dos partidos, são uma fonte de informação bem sistematizada sobre o que se passou. Neste trabalho, discutem‑se os fundamentos e as consequências da política de défices tarifários e de políticas que conduziram ao que tem sido considerado como rendas excessivas. Sobre a política de défices tarifários não se encontram fundamentos nem de eficiência, nem de equidade e é duvidoso que se possa justificar com base num argumento de estabilidade tarifária, que foi o argumento mais utilizado formalmente. A criação de rendas excessivas tem no mercado de eletricidade os efeitos negativos associados ao poder de mercado. Numa perspetiva de equilíbrio geral, é possível fundamentar uma política de rendas excessivas com base em critérios de eficiência, mas não foi esta a abordagem seguida pelos governos portugueses que poderá ter estado mais centrada na obtenção de vantagens eleitorais com aquela política. Em sentido diferente, pode-se considerar que em 1995 foi adotado um modelo de regulação contratual que pode gerar a criação de rendas, sem que estas devam ser consideradas como excessivas. Concluindo, qualquer que seja a interpretação dada ao trabalho da Comissão, a sua principal utilidade parece ser a de evidenciar formas de melhorar o processo de decisão pública.
{"title":"Défice Tarifário, Rendas Excessivas e Privatizações","authors":"João Confraria","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_53_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_53_4","url":null,"abstract":"O défice tarifário e a possibilidade de haver rendas excessivas têm sido a principal fonte de polémica sobre a intervenção do Estado no setor elétrico nos últimos 25 anos e foram objeto de uma Comissão Parlamentar de Inquérito, cujo Relatório, assim como as declarações de voto dos partidos, são uma fonte de informação bem sistematizada sobre o que se passou. Neste trabalho, discutem‑se os fundamentos e as consequências da política de défices tarifários e de políticas que conduziram ao que tem sido considerado como rendas excessivas. Sobre a política de défices tarifários não se encontram fundamentos nem de eficiência, nem de equidade e é duvidoso que se possa justificar com base num argumento de estabilidade tarifária, que foi o argumento mais utilizado formalmente. A criação de rendas excessivas tem no mercado de eletricidade os efeitos negativos associados ao poder de mercado. Numa perspetiva de equilíbrio geral, é possível fundamentar uma política de rendas excessivas com base em critérios de eficiência, mas não foi esta a abordagem seguida pelos governos portugueses que poderá ter estado mais centrada na obtenção de vantagens eleitorais com aquela política. Em sentido diferente, pode-se considerar que em 1995 foi adotado um modelo de regulação contratual que pode gerar a criação de rendas, sem que estas devam ser consideradas como excessivas. Concluindo, qualquer que seja a interpretação dada ao trabalho da Comissão, a sua principal utilidade parece ser a de evidenciar formas de melhorar o processo de decisão pública.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44888275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We argue that the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers depends crucially on the type of fiscal experiment used, and on the measure of wealth distribution. We calibrate an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets for different European economies and use Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) data to compare fiscal multipliers when models are calibrated to match the distribution of gross vs. net wealth. We find a negative relationship between fiscal multipliers and wealth inequality when considering fiscal consolidation programs, in contrast to fiscal expansion experiments which are standard in the literature. The underlying mechanism relies on the relationship between the distribution of wealth and the share of credit‑ constrained agents. We examine the role of household balance sheet compositions regarding asset liquidity and find that when calibrating the model to match liquid wealth, the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers is much stronger.
{"title":"Asset Liquidity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs","authors":"Tiago Bernardino","doi":"10.14195/2183-203X_51_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203X_51_4","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers depends crucially on the type of fiscal experiment used, and on the measure of wealth distribution. We calibrate an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets for different European economies and use Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) data to compare fiscal multipliers when models are calibrated to match the distribution of gross vs. net wealth. We find a negative relationship between fiscal multipliers and wealth inequality when considering fiscal consolidation programs, in contrast to fiscal expansion experiments which are standard in the literature. The underlying mechanism relies on the relationship between the distribution of wealth and the share of credit‑ constrained agents. We examine the role of household balance sheet compositions regarding asset liquidity and find that when calibrating the model to match liquid wealth, the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers is much stronger.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":"52 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41257838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study is to identify the role of automatization in increasing wage inequality, by comparing the United States to Portugal. Using the PSID and Quadros de Pessoal (Personnel Records), we find that labor income dynamics are strongly determined by the variance of the individual fixed component. This effect is drastically reduced by adding information on workers’ occupational tasks, confirming that a decreasing price of capital and the consequent replacement of routine manual workers have deepened wage inequality. During the current crisis, we find that the ability to keep working is strongly related with the kind of occupation. As such, we foster the impact of a permanent demand shock using an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents to quantitatively predict the impact of Covid‑ 19 and lockdown measures on wage premium and earnings inequality. We find that wage premia and earnings dispersion increase, suggesting that earnings inequality will increase at the expense of manual workers.
本研究的目的是通过比较美国和葡萄牙，确定自动化在增加工资不平等方面的作用。使用PSID和Quadros de Pessoal(人事记录)，我们发现劳动收入的动态很大程度上取决于个体固定成分的方差。通过增加有关工人职业任务的信息，证实了资本价格的下降以及随之而来的对常规体力劳动者的替代加剧了工资不平等，这种影响大大减少了。在当前的危机中，我们发现保持工作的能力与职业的类型密切相关。因此，我们使用具有不完全市场和异质主体的代际重叠模型来量化预测Covid - 19和封锁措施对工资溢价和收入不平等的影响，从而促进永久性需求冲击的影响。我们发现工资溢价和收入分散增加，表明收入不平等将以体力劳动者为代价增加。
{"title":"Routinization and Covid‑19: A Comparison Between the United States and Portugal","authors":"P. Dominicis","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_51_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_51_7","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to identify the role of automatization in increasing wage inequality, by comparing the United States to Portugal. Using the PSID and Quadros de Pessoal (Personnel Records), we find that labor income dynamics are strongly determined by the variance of the individual fixed component. This effect is drastically reduced by adding information on workers’ occupational tasks, confirming that a decreasing price of capital and the consequent replacement of routine manual workers have deepened wage inequality. During the current crisis, we find that the ability to keep working is strongly related with the kind of occupation. As such, we foster the impact of a permanent demand shock using an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents to quantitatively predict the impact of Covid‑ 19 and lockdown measures on wage premium and earnings inequality. We find that wage premia and earnings dispersion increase, suggesting that earnings inequality will increase at the expense of manual workers.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48186725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article studies the response of social welfare to fiscal consolidations, by focusing on a less debated characteristic of fiscal plans: the speed of deleveraging. A neoclassical overlapping generations model is calibrated to the German economy, and a sequence of reductions of the same size in the debt‑ to GDP ratio are simulated considering different adjustment periods. Welfare gains are found to be larger in slow, delayed fiscal consolidations, due to the presence of incomplete markets. It is also found that the aggregate welfare response depends on the distribution of wealth and the type of fiscal instrument used.
{"title":"Fiscal Consolidation: Welfare Effects of the Adjustment Speed","authors":"M. Fonseca","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_51_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_51_3","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the response of social welfare to fiscal consolidations, by focusing on a less debated characteristic of fiscal plans: the speed of deleveraging. A neoclassical overlapping generations model is calibrated to the German economy, and a sequence of reductions of the same size in the debt‑ to GDP ratio are simulated considering different adjustment periods. Welfare gains are found to be larger in slow, delayed fiscal consolidations, due to the presence of incomplete markets. It is also found that the aggregate welfare response depends on the distribution of wealth and the type of fiscal instrument used.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45033127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rafael Morales-Lage, Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho, Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso
This paper focuses on the process of convergence in per capita CO2 emissions that would occur if the measures taken by the European Union to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitments had been effective. We apply a time series and cross-sectional analysis to test for the existence of convergence among countries and for different economic sectors. The sample covers data for the 28 member countries from 1960 to 2012. The results show weak absolute convergence across countries but clear evidence of conditional convergence, with GDP, the weight of industrial sector and the use of renewable energies being the main drivers of divergence. Concerning sectors, there is an increase of emissions in the agricultural sector, but a reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Different patterns arise in the energy subsectors where manufacturing and electricity notably reduced their emissions while the transport sector increased them in all countries.
{"title":"Are CO2 emissions converging in the European Union? Policy implications","authors":"Rafael Morales-Lage, Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho, Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_49_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_49_5","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the process of convergence in per capita CO2 emissions that would occur if the measures taken by the European Union to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitments had been effective. We apply a time series and cross-sectional analysis to test for the existence of convergence among countries and for different economic sectors. The sample covers data for the 28 member countries from 1960 to 2012. The results show weak absolute convergence across countries but clear evidence of conditional convergence, with GDP, the weight of industrial sector and the use of renewable energies being the main drivers of divergence. Concerning sectors, there is an increase of emissions in the agricultural sector, but a reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Different patterns arise in the energy subsectors where manufacturing and electricity notably reduced their emissions while the transport sector increased them in all countries.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41647209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article aims to investigate a different genealogical line of European integration. Through a partial use of the biography of Jean Monnet, I aim to expand the temporal borders of the path often outlined by European integration history, taking advantage of an analytical tool that is rarely used in this context: logistics. On the one hand, I propose to make the Schuman Declaration resonant with a broader “European past”. On the other hand, my aim is to show that some categories of the global present also pervade the process of continental integration. All in all, this path reveals that the latter process was originally developed to build what I call the “European Logistics Space”.
{"title":"The European Logistics Space: On Jean Monnet and the Integration of Europe","authors":"Mattia Frapporti","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_49_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_49_3","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to investigate a different genealogical line of European integration. Through a partial use of the biography of Jean Monnet, I aim to expand the temporal borders of the path often outlined by European integration history, taking advantage of an analytical tool that is rarely used in this context: logistics. On the one hand, I propose to make the Schuman Declaration resonant with a broader “European past”. On the other hand, my aim is to show that some categories of the global present also pervade the process of continental integration. All in all, this path reveals that the latter process was originally developed to build what I call the “European Logistics Space”.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43458667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The EU’s new generation of deep and comprehensive free trade agreements not only promote EU trade but also have a bearing on the shape of the European model and in consequence on the sustainability of the integration project. They reach much further than conventional free trade agreements. Their benefits hinge on the abolition of non-tariff and regulatory barriers and enter into areas that are member state competences. Much depends on the agreements in question and similarity of preferences between trading partners. It is up to the EU, ultimately for the sake of the sustainability of its political integration project, to explicitly contemplate not only trade impacts but impacts on the Union’s economic model instead of letting rather than being pushed further down the road by unfolding trade dynamics. Keywords: Comprehensive free trade agreements; EU regulation and preferences; subsidiarity.
{"title":"EU Trade and Regulation: Economic and Political Dynamics","authors":"Annette Bongardt","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_49_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_49_4","url":null,"abstract":"The EU’s new generation of deep and comprehensive free trade agreements not only promote EU trade but also have a bearing on the shape of the European model and in consequence on the sustainability of the integration project. They reach much further than conventional free trade agreements. Their benefits hinge on the abolition of non-tariff and regulatory barriers and enter into areas that are member state competences. Much depends on the agreements in question and similarity of preferences between trading partners. It is up to the EU, ultimately for the sake of the sustainability of its political integration project, to explicitly contemplate not only trade impacts but impacts on the Union’s economic model instead of letting rather than being pushed further down the road by unfolding trade dynamics. Keywords: Comprehensive free trade agreements; EU regulation and preferences; subsidiarity.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46594035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth in Portugal over the period 1980-2018. The empirical approach makes use of a VAR model inspired by the standard Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. The VAR model includes the capital stock, hours worked, total factor productivity and the corruption perceptions index (CPI) of Transparency International. The CPI combines several sources of information on the level of corruption in each country. The scale of this index goes from 0, the highest level of corruption, to 10, the lowest level. The magnitude of the estimated effect of corruption on economic growth in the unrestricted VAR model is large (and positive), but statistically not significantly different from zero. However, the results from the estimation of a structural VAR model with economically plausible long-run restrictions indicate modest gains from reducing corruption.
{"title":"Corruption and Economic Growth: The Case of Portugal","authors":"Pedro Bação, Inês Gaspar, Marta C. N. Simões","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_49_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_49_2","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth in Portugal over the period 1980-2018. The empirical approach makes use of a VAR model inspired by the standard Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. The VAR model includes the capital stock, hours worked, total factor productivity and the corruption perceptions index (CPI) of Transparency International. The CPI combines several sources of information on the level of corruption in each country. The scale of this index goes from 0, the highest level of corruption, to 10, the lowest level. The magnitude of the estimated effect of corruption on economic growth in the unrestricted VAR model is large (and positive), but statistically not significantly different from zero. However, the results from the estimation of a structural VAR model with economically plausible long-run restrictions indicate modest gains from reducing corruption.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46230626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In order to evaluate the impact of Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs) on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), we analysed the impact of a DTT implementation on both the number of cross-border acquisitions and the average value of M&A deals between companies from the countries that signed the DTT. Moreover, the impact of DTTs on the takeover bid premiums is analysed in order to access if companies are willing to pay higher premiums after the DTT is implemented and whether the impact on the premium is immediate or gradual. Overall, our findings lead us to conclude that DTTs effectively promote FDI.
{"title":"Impact of double taxation treaties on cross-border acquisitions","authors":"Catarina Pinto, M. Sousa","doi":"10.14195/2183-203X_48_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203X_48_2","url":null,"abstract":"In order to evaluate the impact of Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs) on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), we analysed the impact of a DTT implementation on both the number of cross-border acquisitions and the average value of M&A deals between companies from the countries that signed the DTT. Moreover, the impact of DTTs on the takeover bid premiums is analysed in order to access if companies are willing to pay higher premiums after the DTT is implemented and whether the impact on the premium is immediate or gradual. Overall, our findings lead us to conclude that DTTs effectively promote FDI.","PeriodicalId":33953,"journal":{"name":"Notas Economicas","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44740329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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