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Macroeconomic Sensitivity, Risk-Return Trade-Off and Volatility Dynamics Evidence From Developed and Developing Markets 宏观经济敏感性、风险回报权衡和波动动态——来自发达和发展中市场的证据
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2019010101
F. Khan, Hashim Khan, Saif Khan, Muhammad Jumaa, Sharif Ullah Jan
This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock return volatility along with the pricing of risk, and asymmetry and leverage effect on a comparative basis for the USA and UAE markets. Further, these three dimensions are also investigated with regard to various firm's features (such as firm's size and age). The daily data for the period 4th January 2010 to 29th December 2017 of firm stock returns from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADSE), and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) is considered and three time-series models were applied. The results from GARCH (1. 1) indicated that all the economic factors have significant impact on the stock return volatility in both the markets. Similarly, the study also found evidence of asymmetry & leverage effect using EGARCH in the NYSE (for all firms) and the UAE (partially). Finally, for a majority of the firms, a positive risk-return relationship is found in the UAE and a negative risk-return relationship is found in the NYSE using GARCH-in the mean. Interestingly, these results in context of both markets were different with respect to various firm features such as firm size and age. In light of these results, it is concluded that both the markets have different dynamics with regard to all three dimensions. Hence, the investors have a clear opportunity to diversify their risk and investments across developed and emerging markets.
本研究旨在比较美国和阿联酋市场的宏观经济因素对股票收益波动、风险定价、不对称性和杠杆效应的影响。此外,这三个维度还研究了不同企业的特征(如企业规模和年龄)。本文考虑了纽约证券交易所(NYSE)、阿布扎比证券交易所(ADSE)和迪拜金融市场(DFM) 2010年1月4日至2017年12月29日的公司股票收益的每日数据,并应用了三个时间序列模型。GARCH(1。1)表明所有经济因素对两个市场的股票收益波动都有显著影响。同样,该研究还发现了在纽约证券交易所(所有公司)和阿联酋(部分)使用EGARCH的不对称和杠杆效应的证据。最后,对于大多数公司,在阿联酋发现了正的风险回报关系,在纽约证券交易所发现了负的风险回报关系,使用garch在平均值中。有趣的是,在两个市场的背景下,这些结果在企业规模和年龄等各种企业特征方面是不同的。根据这些结果,可以得出结论,这两个市场在所有三个维度上都有不同的动态。因此,投资者显然有机会在发达市场和新兴市场之间分散风险和投资。
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引用次数: 3
Ownership Structure and Firms' Performance in the Period of Crisis. Evidence From the Listed Food and Beverage Firms in the Athens Stock Exchange 危机时期股权结构与企业绩效。来自雅典证券交易所上市食品和饮料公司的证据
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2019010103
P. Kalantonis, Konstantina Panagiotakopoulou, R. Mitoula
Ownership structure is a crucial determinant factor of the corporate governance measurement and has been associated, in prior studies, with the profitability of firms. The current study investigates the effect of ownership structure on the firm's performance in the period of financial crisis. The authors focus on the food and beverage (F&B) industry since this sector has been affected less than others by the economic recession. Exploring the listed F&B beverage in the Athens Stock Exchange for seven years during the crisis period in Greece, the authors have found evidence for the effect of ownership structure on firm performance as it has been reflected in the accounting and financial market indicators. The findings for the relation between ownership structure and firms' performance, measured with accounting indices, are different from those in which the performance has been measured with market indices.
所有权结构是公司治理衡量的一个关键决定因素,在先前的研究中,所有权结构与公司的盈利能力有关。本研究考察了金融危机时期股权结构对企业绩效的影响。作者把重点放在食品和饮料(F&B)行业,因为这个行业受经济衰退的影响比其他行业小。在希腊危机期间,作者对雅典证券交易所上市的餐饮饮料进行了长达七年的研究,发现了股权结构对公司绩效影响的证据,因为它已经反映在会计和金融市场指标上。用会计指标衡量的股权结构与公司绩效之间关系的研究结果与用市场指标衡量的绩效之间的关系不同。
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引用次数: 0
An Application of CAMELS and Z-Score Methodologies in a Comparative Analysis Between the Four Systemic Banks in Greece for the Period 2006-2016 骆驼模型和Z-Score方法在希腊四家系统性银行2006-2016年比较分析中的应用
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2019010102
A. Christopoulos
Τhe recent crisis which accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 revealed that relationships between the real economy and the financial sector are decisive for the stability of the world economy, even in in cases of well operating banking systems operating in competitive economies. In the present article, the authors focus on Greece, the weakest member of the Eurozone, but with a financial system which seemed to operate on a sound basis, avoiding initially the effects of the US financial crisis. The goal of this article is to examine the performance of the Greek banking sector for the critical decade before and after the crisis, assessing the financial position of the four systemic Greek banks for the period 2006-2016. For this purpose, two alternative methods, CAMELS and Z-scores, are applied, comparing the results obtained from the two methodologies. As expected, the results of both methodologies show that the failure risk during the crisis period 2011-2016 for the four systemic banks was significantly higher compared to the pre-crisis period 2006-2010.
Τhe最近的危机在2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭后加速,揭示了实体经济和金融部门之间的关系对世界经济的稳定是决定性的,即使在竞争性经济体中运行良好的银行系统的情况下也是如此。在本文中,作者将重点放在希腊,这个欧元区最弱的成员,但其金融体系似乎在良好的基础上运行,最初避免了美国金融危机的影响。本文的目的是研究希腊银行业在危机前后关键十年的表现,评估2006-2016年期间希腊四家系统性银行的财务状况。为此,应用了两种替代方法,camel和z分数,比较两种方法获得的结果。正如预期的那样,两种方法的结果表明,2011-2016年危机期间,四家系统性银行的破产风险明显高于危机前的2006-2010年。
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引用次数: 2
A Study on Factors Influencing Mutual Fund Portfolio Performance 共同基金投资组合绩效影响因素研究
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2018070101
Medhanie G. Mekonnen, R. Mayer, Wen-wen Chien
Mutual fund portfolio managers do not always meet performance expectations, resulting in loss of capital reserves. Out of 3,612 U.S. based open-ended mutual funds, the risk-adjusted performance of 2,890 (80%) failed to meet the S&P 500 performance between the year 2006 to 2016. Grounded in Markowitz's modern portfolio theory, this correlational study examined the relationship between mutual fund class type, portfolio turnover, fund longevity, management turnover, and annual fund risk-adjusted performance. Archival data were collected from 88 U.S. based equity mutual funds companies. The results of the multiple regression analysis indicated the model as a whole was able to significantly predict annual fund risk-adjusted performance for the 5-year period ending 2016, F (4, 83) = 3.581, p = .010, R2 = .147. In the final model, mutual fund class type and portfolio turnover were statistically significant with mutual fund class type (ß= .249, t = 2.302, p = .024) accounting for a higher contribution to the model than portfolio turnover (ß = .238, t = 2.312, p = .023).
共同基金投资组合经理并不总是达到预期的业绩,导致资本储备的损失。在3612只美国开放式共同基金中,有2890只(80%)的风险调整后业绩在2006年至2016年期间未能达到标准普尔500指数的表现。以马科维茨的现代投资组合理论为基础,本研究考察了共同基金类别类型、投资组合周转率、基金寿命、管理层周转率和基金年度风险调整绩效之间的关系。档案数据收集自88家美国股票共同基金公司。多元回归分析结果表明,该模型整体上能够显著预测截至2016年5年期基金风险调整后的年度业绩,F (4,83) = 3.581, p = 0.010, R2 = 0.147。在最终的模型中,共同基金类别类型和投资组合周转率具有统计学意义,其中共同基金类别类型(ß= .249, t = 2.302, p = 0.024)对模型的贡献高于投资组合周转率(ß= .238, t = 2.312, p = 0.023)。
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引用次数: 0
County Funds, Delays in Procurement Process, and Budget Absorption in County Governments in Kenya 肯尼亚县政府的县县资金、采购过程的延误和预算吸收
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2018070103
C. Owuor
County governments in Kenya have been consistently accused of poor budget absorption. This article sought to assess misallocation of county funds and the delays in procurement process on budget absorption in county governments in Kenya. Descriptive research design was used. The study found out that there was misallocation of funds from the national governments to county treasuries and from the county treasuries to various department projects and activities which in effect affected the procurement processes. Procurement functions in the county governments were inefficient owing to the lead time and bureaucracies involved in procurement. The study therefore recommended for county governments in collaboration with commission for revenue allocation and the national treasuries to come up with a criterion for ensuring smooth flow of funds from the national treasury to the end user departments.
肯尼亚的县政府一直被指责预算吸收不力。本文试图评估肯尼亚县政府预算吸收的县资金分配不当和采购过程的延误。采用描述性研究设计。研究发现,从国家政府到县国库以及从县国库到各种部门项目和活动的资金分配不当,这实际上影响了采购过程。由于采购涉及的前置时间和官僚作风,县政府的采购职能效率低下。因此,该研究建议县政府与收入分配委员会和国库合作制定一个标准,以确保资金从国库顺利流向最终用户部门。
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引用次数: 1
Audit Committee Effectiveness and Accounting Conservatism a Test of Lagged Effect 审计委员会有效性与会计稳健性:滞后效应检验
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2018070104
Saif Khan, F. Khan, Elgilani Elshareif
This article examines the effect of audit committee effectiveness on two measures of accounting conservatism. In addition, this article also investigates the interaction effect of four endogenous variables (i.e. firm's operating risks, leverage, managerial influence, firm's size) and three exogenous variables on relationship between audit committee effectiveness and two measures of accounting conservatism. A total of 543 sample firms are selected from the Bursa Malaysia for the period from 2004 to 2013. In addition, some information relating to audit committee and auditor quality are collected from firms' annual reports. For data analysis, panel data methodology is employed, and multiple regression analysis technique is used to test the developed hypotheses of this study. Results show that interaction effect of firm's operating risks, managerial influence, external auditor quality and capital market uncertainty found to be significant with two-year-lagged effect on both measures of conservatism. Whereas, the interaction effect of firm's leverage, firm's size and product market completion are found to be insignificant. The findings of this study contribute to the signaling theory, agency theory, reputation theory and accounting conservatism literature with lagged effect in emerging economies settings.
本文考察了审计委员会有效性对会计稳健性两项指标的影响。此外,本文还考察了四个内生变量(公司经营风险、杠杆率、管理层影响力、公司规模)和三个外生变量对审计委员会有效性与两种会计稳健性指标之间关系的交互作用。从2004年至2013年期间,从马来西亚证券交易所共选择了543家样本公司。此外,一些有关审计委员会和审计师质量的信息是从事务所的年度报告中收集的。数据分析采用面板数据方法,并采用多元回归分析技术对本研究提出的假设进行检验。结果表明,公司经营风险、管理层影响力、外部审计师质量和资本市场不确定性的交互效应显著,对两种稳健性指标都有两年滞后效应。而企业杠杆、企业规模和产品市场完成度的交互效应不显著。本研究结果对新兴经济体背景下的信号理论、代理理论、声誉理论和会计稳健性等具有滞后效应的文献有所贡献。
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引用次数: 5
Applying Multiple Linear Regression and Neural Network to Predict Business Performance Using the Reliability of Accounting Information System 基于会计信息系统可靠性的多元线性回归与神经网络预测企业绩效
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.4018/IJCFA.2018070102
A. Al-Dmour, R. Al-Dmour
This article aims to predict business performance using multiple linear regression and neural network. It compares the accuracy power of ANN and multiple linear regression (MLR) using the reliability of accounting information system as independent variables, and business performance as a dependent variable. It is based on primary data collected through a structured questionnaire from 162 out 202 of public listed companies in financial service sector in Jordan. The data were analysed using ANN and MLR. Testing results of the two methods ANN and MLR confirmed that the business performance indicators (financial, non-financial and combined) were significantly could be predicted by the reliability of AIS and they also revealed that in terms of predictive accuracy test, the ANN has a higher accuracy than regression analysis.
本文旨在利用多元线性回归和神经网络对企业绩效进行预测。以会计信息系统可靠性为自变量,以企业绩效为因变量,比较了人工神经网络与多元线性回归(MLR)的准确率。它是基于对约旦金融服务业202家上市公司中的162家进行结构化问卷调查收集的原始数据。采用人工神经网络和线性回归分析数据。ANN和MLR两种方法的测试结果证实了AIS的可靠性可以显著预测企业的经营绩效指标(财务、非财务和组合),并且在预测准确性测试方面,ANN比回归分析具有更高的准确性。
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引用次数: 26
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International Journal of Corporate Finance and Accounting
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