A. Christopoulos, Spyros Papathanasiou, P. Kalantonis, Andreas S. Chouliaras, Savvas Katsikidis
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship of price changes in the southern European E.U. member states through their stock markets and especially among the exchange markets of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, known also as the PIIGS countries. More specifically, it is examined whether cointegration and causality relationships exists among the PIIGS’ Stock Markets while by testing these relationships the existence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) among these stock markets is also tested. In case of cointegration relationships between these markets it is proved that possible advantages by internationalizing portfolio diversification are limited and further attention must be given for the selection of an internationalized optimal portfolio. It is also wealth mentioning that since 2012 Europe faces a serious economic crisis which is deeper in the member states of the South, so even further attention must be given to the construction of optimal portfolios.
{"title":"An Investigation of Cointegration and Casualty Relationships between the PIIGS’ Stock Markets","authors":"A. Christopoulos, Spyros Papathanasiou, P. Kalantonis, Andreas S. Chouliaras, Savvas Katsikidis","doi":"10.35808/ERSJ/421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35808/ERSJ/421","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship of price changes in the southern European E.U. member states through their stock markets and especially among the exchange markets of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, known also as the PIIGS countries. More specifically, it is examined whether cointegration and causality relationships exists among the PIIGS’ Stock Markets while by testing these relationships the existence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) among these stock markets is also tested. In case of cointegration relationships between these markets it is proved that possible advantages by internationalizing portfolio diversification are limited and further attention must be given for the selection of an internationalized optimal portfolio. It is also wealth mentioning that since 2012 Europe faces a serious economic crisis which is deeper in the member states of the South, so even further attention must be given to the construction of optimal portfolios.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131501393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses the differences among performance metrics in the Italian mutual fund industry. This industry is worthy of interest because it presents two characteristics (representative of other Continental Europe countries, less analyzed than Anglo-Saxon ones) that weaken the importance of the time-weighted approach: a dominant role of the sellers and a significant vertical integration between production and distribution. Based on an original dataset, never used before by any scholar, we simulate (by using a Monte Carlo simulation model) the dynamics of returns and cash flows in the 2003–2010 period, analyzing the metric spreads and their sensitivity to scenarios’ characteristics (volatility and timing of returns, entity and volatility of subscriptions and withdrawals). The empirical findings suggest that metrics matter. In fact, spreads between time-weighted and money-weighted returns are significant at level of individual funds in the simulated scenarios (consistent with the dynamics of the Italian industry in the considered period), while are not significant when we consider aggregated data, since aggregation smooths the volatility of flows and returns. The analysis suggests that it would be useful: (i) to rethink asset managers’ choices in terms of performance measurement; (ii) to provide all the measures of return that could satisfy the broad spectrum of interested parties and assessment purposes.
{"title":"The Performance of the Italian Mutual Funds: Does the Metric Matter?","authors":"D. Venanzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2420900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2420900","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the differences among performance metrics in the Italian mutual fund industry. This industry is worthy of interest because it presents two characteristics (representative of other Continental Europe countries, less analyzed than Anglo-Saxon ones) that weaken the importance of the time-weighted approach: a dominant role of the sellers and a significant vertical integration between production and distribution. Based on an original dataset, never used before by any scholar, we simulate (by using a Monte Carlo simulation model) the dynamics of returns and cash flows in the 2003–2010 period, analyzing the metric spreads and their sensitivity to scenarios’ characteristics (volatility and timing of returns, entity and volatility of subscriptions and withdrawals). The empirical findings suggest that metrics matter. In fact, spreads between time-weighted and money-weighted returns are significant at level of individual funds in the simulated scenarios (consistent with the dynamics of the Italian industry in the considered period), while are not significant when we consider aggregated data, since aggregation smooths the volatility of flows and returns. The analysis suggests that it would be useful: (i) to rethink asset managers’ choices in terms of performance measurement; (ii) to provide all the measures of return that could satisfy the broad spectrum of interested parties and assessment purposes.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123643066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Crude oil prices advanced late in August 2013 and pushed up the MICEX index by 5.52% during the first decade in September 2013. As of September 26, 2013, the MICEX index advanced by 8.6% since the beginning of the month and reached 1485 points. OJSC Sberbank stocks grew up by 14.39% during 26 days in September, showing maximum growth among blue chips. Stock market (MICEX) capitalization reached Rb 25.09 trillion (40.09% of GDP) by September 26, 2013. Domestic corporate bond market indicators such as market capacity, corporate bond market index, average weighted yield, activity of issuers and investors (especially in the financial segment) showed a positive trend. However, a few technical and real defaults were declared.
{"title":"Financial Markets in September 2013","authors":"Nikita Andrievskiy, E. Khudko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2347255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2347255","url":null,"abstract":"Crude oil prices advanced late in August 2013 and pushed up the MICEX index by 5.52% during the first decade in September 2013. As of September 26, 2013, the MICEX index advanced by 8.6% since the beginning of the month and reached 1485 points. OJSC Sberbank stocks grew up by 14.39% during 26 days in September, showing maximum growth among blue chips. Stock market (MICEX) capitalization reached Rb 25.09 trillion (40.09% of GDP) by September 26, 2013. Domestic corporate bond market indicators such as market capacity, corporate bond market index, average weighted yield, activity of issuers and investors (especially in the financial segment) showed a positive trend. However, a few technical and real defaults were declared.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114796471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The MICEX index grew up by 4.9% in the period between July 1 thru 25 basically in response to Gazprom stock price rise by 20.37%. Stock market capitalization in that period increased by 4% or Rb 941bn to account for 37.6% of GDP as of July 25. In July 2013, the domes?? c corporate bond market was also governed by op?? mis?? c expectations. Almost all key market indicators saw an uptrend: market volume, corporate bond market index, average weighted yield (especially in the industrial segment), issuers’ activity. The situation with issuers’ obligations to bondholders remains stable.
{"title":"Russia’s Financial Markets in July 2013","authors":"Nikita Andrievskiy, E. Khudko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2330899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2330899","url":null,"abstract":"The MICEX index grew up by 4.9% in the period between July 1 thru 25 basically in response to Gazprom stock price rise by 20.37%. Stock market capitalization in that period increased by 4% or Rb 941bn to account for 37.6% of GDP as of July 25. In July 2013, the domes?? c corporate bond market was also governed by op?? mis?? c expectations. Almost all key market indicators saw an uptrend: market volume, corporate bond market index, average weighted yield (especially in the industrial segment), issuers’ activity. The situation with issuers’ obligations to bondholders remains stable.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134436103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more accurate estimates of the term premium incorporated into the Eurozone's sovereign yield curve. I then look for episodes of the monetary cycle where long yields display a puzzling behavior vis-a-vis the short rate and its expected average path in contrast with the Expectation Hypothesis. The Euro-area bond market appears to have gone through its own "Greenspan conundrum" between January 1999 and August 2008. The term premium substantially contributed to these odd phenomena.
{"title":"Was There a 'Greenspan Conundrum' in the Euro Area?","authors":"G. Lamé","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2243372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2243372","url":null,"abstract":"This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates \"unspanned\" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more accurate estimates of the term premium incorporated into the Eurozone's sovereign yield curve. I then look for episodes of the monetary cycle where long yields display a puzzling behavior vis-a-vis the short rate and its expected average path in contrast with the Expectation Hypothesis. The Euro-area bond market appears to have gone through its own \"Greenspan conundrum\" between January 1999 and August 2008. The term premium substantially contributed to these odd phenomena.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116560016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the performance of 358 European diversified equity mutual funds controlling for gender differences. Fund performance is evaluated against funds’ designated market indices and representative style portfolios. Consistently with previous studies, no significant differences in performance and risk are found between female and male managed funds. However, perverse market timing manifests itself mainly in female managed funds and in the left tail of the returns distribution. Interestingly, at fund level there is evidence of significant overperformance that survives even after accounting for funds’ exposure to known risk factors. Employing a quantile regression approach reveals that fund performance is highly dependent on the selection of the specific quantile of the returns distribution; also, style consistency for male and female managers manifests itself across different quantiles. These results have important implications for fund management companies and for retail investors’ asset allocation strategies.
{"title":"Measuring Alpha in the Fund Management Industry: Do Female Managers Perform Better?","authors":"Vassilios Babalos, G. Caporale, N. Philippas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2269001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2269001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the performance of 358 European diversified equity mutual funds controlling for gender differences. Fund performance is evaluated against funds’ designated market indices and representative style portfolios. Consistently with previous studies, no significant differences in performance and risk are found between female and male managed funds. However, perverse market timing manifests itself mainly in female managed funds and in the left tail of the returns distribution. Interestingly, at fund level there is evidence of significant overperformance that survives even after accounting for funds’ exposure to known risk factors. Employing a quantile regression approach reveals that fund performance is highly dependent on the selection of the specific quantile of the returns distribution; also, style consistency for male and female managers manifests itself across different quantiles. These results have important implications for fund management companies and for retail investors’ asset allocation strategies.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130359948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-06-29DOI: 10.1016/J.JBANKFIN.2012.07.001
Seth Armitage, S. Chakravarty, L. Hodgkinson, Jo Wells
{"title":"Are There Arbitrage Gaps in the UK Gilt Strips Market?","authors":"Seth Armitage, S. Chakravarty, L. Hodgkinson, Jo Wells","doi":"10.1016/J.JBANKFIN.2012.07.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JBANKFIN.2012.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120649095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The motivation for this paper is to apply a statistical arbitrage technique of pairs trading to high-frequency equity data and compare its profit potential to the standard sampling frequency of daily closing prices. We use a simple trading strategy to evaluate the profit potential of the data series and compare information ratios yielded by each of the different data sampling frequencies. The frequencies observed range from a 5-minute interval, to prices recorded at the close of each trading day.The analysis of the data series reveals that the extent to which daily data are cointegrated provides a good indicator of the profitability of the pair in the high-frequency domain. For each series, the in-sample information ratio is a good indicator of the future profitability as well.Conclusive observations show that arbitrage profitability is in fact present when applying a novel diversified pair trading strategy to high-frequency data. In particular, even once very conservative transaction costs are taken into account, the trading portfolio suggested achieves very attractive information ratios (e.g. above 3 for an average pair sampled at the high-frequency interval and above 1 for a daily sampling frequency).
{"title":"Statistical Arbitrage and High-Frequency Data with an Application to Eurostoxx 50 Equities","authors":"Jozef Rudy, C. Dunis, G. Giorgioni, Jason Laws","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2272605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2272605","url":null,"abstract":"The motivation for this paper is to apply a statistical arbitrage technique of pairs trading to high-frequency equity data and compare its profit potential to the standard sampling frequency of daily closing prices. We use a simple trading strategy to evaluate the profit potential of the data series and compare information ratios yielded by each of the different data sampling frequencies. The frequencies observed range from a 5-minute interval, to prices recorded at the close of each trading day.The analysis of the data series reveals that the extent to which daily data are cointegrated provides a good indicator of the profitability of the pair in the high-frequency domain. For each series, the in-sample information ratio is a good indicator of the future profitability as well.Conclusive observations show that arbitrage profitability is in fact present when applying a novel diversified pair trading strategy to high-frequency data. In particular, even once very conservative transaction costs are taken into account, the trading portfolio suggested achieves very attractive information ratios (e.g. above 3 for an average pair sampled at the high-frequency interval and above 1 for a daily sampling frequency).","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116365185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the earnings forecast accuracy of newly listed companies on the Athens Stock Exchange and further investigates the relationship between earnings forecast and pricing of IPOs. It uses a unique data set of 208 IPOs, which were floated during the period of January 1994 to December 2001 in the Athens Stock Exchange. The results suggest that investors are able to anticipate forecast errors at the time of listing. Pricing of IPOs indicate that firms with negative earnings forecast (pessimistic) are associated with low level of underpricing while optimistic management earning forecast can be a signal for high initial returns. Three variables - age of the IPOs, ownership by insiders and industry classification significantly contribute towards accuracy of earnings forecast.
{"title":"Associations between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange","authors":"D. Gounopoulos","doi":"10.17578/15-3/4-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17578/15-3/4-4","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the earnings forecast accuracy of newly listed companies on the Athens Stock Exchange and further investigates the relationship between earnings forecast and pricing of IPOs. It uses a unique data set of 208 IPOs, which were floated during the period of January 1994 to December 2001 in the Athens Stock Exchange. The results suggest that investors are able to anticipate forecast errors at the time of listing. Pricing of IPOs indicate that firms with negative earnings forecast (pessimistic) are associated with low level of underpricing while optimistic management earning forecast can be a signal for high initial returns. Three variables - age of the IPOs, ownership by insiders and industry classification significantly contribute towards accuracy of earnings forecast.","PeriodicalId":341097,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Europe (Developed Markets) (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125596901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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