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The Time Dimension of Volatility: Implications for Option Strategy Design 波动率的时间维度:对期权策略设计的启示
Pub Date : 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.152
Joanne M. Hill
The volatility/time horizon connection is critical for estimating risk and for constructing downside-risk management and upside capture strategies. Differences in perceived risk depend on the return interval over which volatility is measured and should be aligned with the horizon for monitoring and rebalancing an investment strategy. A comparison of realized S&P 500 volatility measured from daily versus monthly returns over the 2000–2021 period showed that daily returns were about 30% more volatile on average than monthly returns. This time variation in volatility also impacts the selection of strike prices for option strategy design. The distribution of S&P 500 total returns for investment horizons ranging from 1 to 12 months was examined to assess the differences in the frequency of outcomes relative to threshold levels across holding periods. The net delta of an option strategy is the best guide for comparing options of different terms, enabling investors with different horizons to select option strike prices consistent with their targeted return distributions.
波动性/时间范围的联系对于估计风险和构建下行风险管理和上行捕获策略至关重要。感知风险的差异取决于衡量波动性的回报间隔,并应与监测和重新平衡投资策略的范围保持一致。2000年至2021年期间,标准普尔500指数的日回报率与月回报率的实际波动率进行了比较,结果显示,日回报率的波动率平均比月回报率高出30%左右。波动率的时间变化也会影响期权策略设计中执行价格的选择。我们研究了标准普尔500指数在1至12个月的投资期限内的总回报分布,以评估不同持有期限内结果出现频率相对于阈值水平的差异。期权策略的净增量是比较不同期限期权的最佳指南,使具有不同视野的投资者能够选择与其目标收益分布一致的期权执行价格。
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引用次数: 0
Semi-Analytical Pricing of Barrier Options in the Time-Dependent Heston Model 时变Heston模型中障碍期权的半解析定价
Pub Date : 2022-02-13 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.30.2.141
P. Carr, A. Itkin, D. Muravey
This article develops the generalized integral transform (GIT) method for pricing barrier options in the time-dependent Heston model (also with a time-dependent barrier), whereby the option price is represented in a semi-analytical form as a two-dimensional (2D) integral. This integral depends on the as yet unknown function Φ(t, v), which is the gradient of the solution at the moving boundary S = L(t), and solves a linear mixed Volterra–Fredholm equation of the second kind, also derived in this article. Thus, the authors generalize the one-dimensional (1D) GIT method developed in Itkin, Lipton, and Muravey (2021) and the corresponding articles to the 2D case. In other words, we show that the GIT method can be extended to stochastic volatility models (two drivers with inhomogeneous correlation). As such, this 2D approach naturally inherits all advantages of the corresponding 1D methods—in particular, their speed and accuracy. This result is new and has various applications not only in finance, but also in physics. Numerical examples illustrate the high speed and accuracy of the method compared with the finite-difference approach.
本文发展了基于时间依赖的Heston模型(也具有时间依赖的障碍)中定价障碍期权的广义积分变换(GIT)方法,其中期权价格以半解析形式表示为二维(2D)积分。该积分依赖于目前未知的函数Φ(t, v),该函数是移动边界S = L(t)处解的梯度,并解出了第二类线性混合Volterra-Fredholm方程,该方程也在本文中导出。因此,作者将Itkin, Lipton, and Muravey(2021)和相应文章中开发的一维(1D) GIT方法推广到二维情况。换句话说,我们表明GIT方法可以扩展到随机波动率模型(两个非齐次相关的驱动因素)。因此,这种二维方法自然继承了相应的一维方法的所有优点,特别是它们的速度和准确性。这个结果是新的,不仅在金融方面,而且在物理学方面都有各种各样的应用。数值算例表明,与有限差分法相比,该方法具有较高的速度和精度。
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引用次数: 6
Tail Risk Hedging in a Low-Rate Environment 低利率环境下的尾部风险对冲
Pub Date : 2022-02-11 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.150
R. L. Harlow, Stefan Hubrich, Sébastien Page
In a low-rate environment, government bonds may not mitigate equity risk as well as they have in the past. This structural shift has profound implications for asset allocation. Historically, the expected return of government bonds has been positive, and they have mitigated downside risk. In other words, they have offered something even better than free insurance: they have paid investors to buy insurance. In contrast, many option-based protection strategies are costly. Unlike government bonds, options almost always come with a negative expected return. But with real yields on most government bonds in negative territory, the tradeoffs may have changed. To control for downside risk in a low-rate environment, should asset allocators sell stocks to buy more government bonds, or should they keep a high(er) stock allocation and “hedge the tails”? We show that the answer depends on both your view on bonds and how tail risk hedging is implemented. Adding a delta-hedging program can significantly reduce, but not eliminate, the cost of tail risk hedging in addition to reducing path dependent equity exposure. The ultimate benefit of a tail risk hedging program to a multi-asset investor increases the more bearish you are on bonds.
在低利率环境下,政府债券可能无法像过去那样缓解股票风险。这种结构性转变对资产配置有着深远的影响。从历史上看,政府债券的预期回报率一直是正的,它们减轻了下行风险。换句话说,他们提供了比免费保险更好的东西:他们付钱让投资者购买保险。相比之下,许多基于期权的保护策略代价高昂。与政府债券不同,期权的预期回报几乎总是负的。但由于大多数政府债券的实际收益率为负值,这种权衡可能已经发生了变化。为了在低利率环境下控制下行风险,资产配置者是应该抛售股票以买入更多的政府债券,还是应该保持高(低)股票配置并“对冲尾部”?我们表明,答案既取决于你对债券的看法,也取决于尾部风险对冲的实施方式。除了减少依赖路径的股权敞口外,增加delta套期保值计划可以显著降低(但不能消除)尾部风险套期保值的成本。尾部风险对冲计划对多资产投资者的最终好处是,你越看空债券,你的收益就越大。
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引用次数: 1
Taxes and Derivatives: An Investor’s Perspective 税收和衍生品:一个投资者的视角
Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.149
Paul Bouchey, Benjamin Hood, A. Kramer, Clint Talmo
In this article, we cover the basics of how derivatives currently are taxed and the key considerations of which investors and portfolio managers should be aware, such as wash sales, tax straddles, and constructive sales. We also highlight an example of how derivatives can be used to tax-efficiently hedge and monetize a concentrated stock position. Often, articles addressing taxation focus on nuance and the specific cases in which exceptions apply. In this article, we seek clarity over completeness. Our goal is to summarize the tax rules for derivatives in a way that is accessible to investors and investment professionals. We limit our discussion to securities products, not other sorts of investments, and to those taxpayers that are classified as investors, not dealers or business hedgers. The piecemeal nature of the US tax law with respect to derivatives creates complications for portfolio managers. Some trades are taxed more heavily than others, which emphasizes the need for careful tax consideration when using derivatives.
在本文中,我们将介绍衍生品目前如何征税的基础知识,以及投资者和投资组合经理应该注意的关键事项,例如清洗销售、跨界税收和建设性销售。我们还重点介绍了一个衍生品如何用于避税对冲和集中股票头寸货币化的例子。通常,有关税收的文章关注的是细微差别和适用例外的具体情况。在本文中,我们追求的是清晰度而不是完整性。我们的目标是以一种投资者和投资专业人士易于理解的方式总结衍生品的税收规则。我们的讨论仅限于证券产品,而不是其他类型的投资,以及那些被归类为投资者的纳税人,而不是交易商或商业套期保值者。美国税法在衍生品方面的零零碎碎性质,给投资组合经理带来了复杂性。一些交易比其他交易的税率更高,这就强调了在使用衍生品时仔细考虑税收的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Is Risk-Neutral Skewness an Indicator of Downside Risk? Evidence from Tail Risk Taking of Hedge Funds 风险中性偏度是下行风险的指标吗?来自对冲基金尾部风险承担的证据
Pub Date : 2022-01-18 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.148
T. Lehnert
Research suggests that systematic tail risk affects the cross-sectional variation in hedge fund returns. High tail risk hedge funds are known to be exposed to higher-moment risks; they sell market volatility risk and buy market skewness risk. The relationship between a tail risk strategy and a market skewness factor is expected to be positive, but I find it to be negative. Using equity-oriented hedge fund return data, I find that equity market skewness risk explains a major part of variation in hedge funds’ tail risk. My results suggest that the observed negative relationship relates to the problem of price pressure associated with “crowded trades” of mutual funds. In particular, in times when investors shift their funds from bond to equity mutual funds, short selling in the index options market induces a negative relationship between risk-neutral market skewness and returns. Accordingly, the long leg of the tail risk strategy appears to be negatively exposed to market skewness risk, which is in contrast to the usual interpretation of option-implied skewness as an indicator of downside risk.
研究表明,系统性尾部风险影响对冲基金收益的横截面变化。众所周知,高尾部风险对冲基金面临更高时刻的风险;他们卖出市场波动风险,买入市场偏度风险。尾部风险策略和市场偏度因素之间的关系被认为是正的,但我发现它是负的。利用以股票为导向的对冲基金收益数据,我发现股票市场偏度风险解释了对冲基金尾部风险变化的主要部分。我的研究结果表明,观察到的负相关关系与共同基金“拥挤交易”相关的价格压力问题有关。特别是,当投资者将资金从债券型共同基金转向股票型共同基金时,指数期权市场的卖空行为会导致风险中性市场偏度与回报之间的负相关关系。因此,尾部风险策略的长腿似乎受到市场偏度风险的负面影响,这与通常将期权隐含偏度视为下行风险指标的解释相反。
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引用次数: 0
American Option Pricing and Filtering with a Hidden Regime-Switching Jump Diffusion 具有隐状态切换跳跃扩散的美式期权定价与滤波
Pub Date : 2022-01-07 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.147
T. Siu, R. Elliott
The valuation of an American-style contingent claim is discussed in a hidden Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion market, where the evolution of a hidden economic state process over time is described by a continuous-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain. Filtering theory is applied to introduce a filtered market where the valuation problem is discussed. A probabilistic approach to American option pricing is considered, where a decomposition formula for the price of an American put option is given as the sum of its European counterpart and an early exercise premium. Then the valuation of a perpetual American put option is considered. A (semi-)analytical approximation to the perpetual American put price is obtained. Numerical results for the perpetual American put prices and critical values are provided to illustrate the approximation and to examine the impacts of probability beliefs on hidden economic regimes and jumps on the put prices and critical values.
在隐马尔可夫机制转换跳跃扩散市场中,讨论了美式或有索赔的估值,其中隐经济状态过程随时间的演变由连续时间、有限状态、隐马尔可夫链描述。应用滤波理论引入了一个滤波市场,讨论了估值问题。考虑了美国期权定价的概率方法,其中给出了美国看跌期权价格的分解公式,作为其欧洲同行和早期行使溢价的总和。然后考虑美国永久看跌期权的估值。得到了美国永久看跌价格的(半)分析近似值。提供了美国永久看跌价格和临界值的数值结果,以说明近似值,并检验概率信念对隐藏经济制度和跳跃对看跌价格和关键值的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Application of Credit Derivatives in Portfolio Management 信用衍生品在投资组合管理中的应用
Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.146
S. Kackar, Kelly Rogal
The use of credit derivatives has grown considerably over the past decade, with participation from a diverse set of institutional investors. Specifically, investors increasingly are using credit default swaps (CDS), credit default swap indices (CDX), and options on CDX to manage their portfolios. In this article, the authors demonstrate how investors apply credit derivatives in the context of portfolio management. The authors show how CDS can be used to create synthetic corporate bonds and how investors structure basis trading opportunities by taking advantage of mispricing between CDS and corporate bonds. Further, the authors illustrate how investors apply options on CDX for the purpose of hedging the tail risks of a fixed income portfolio, and they include a discussion on various methods to reduce the cost of such tail-risk-hedging strategies.
在过去十年中,在各种机构投资者的参与下,信贷衍生品的使用大幅增长。具体而言,投资者越来越多地使用信用违约掉期(CDS)、信用违约掉期指数(CDX)和CDX期权来管理他们的投资组合。在这篇文章中,作者展示了投资者如何在投资组合管理的背景下应用信用衍生品。作者展示了如何使用CDS创建合成公司债券,以及投资者如何利用CDS和公司债券之间的错误定价来构建基差交易机会。此外,作者还说明了投资者如何在CDX上应用期权来对冲固定收益投资组合的尾部风险,并讨论了降低此类尾部风险对冲策略成本的各种方法。
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引用次数: 0
Do Options Belong in the Portfolios of Individual Investors? 期权属于个人投资者的投资组合吗?
Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.145
Victor Haghani, V. Ragulin, James White
The use of options by individual investors has grown dramatically in recent years. The authors evaluate several popular options strategies, including portfolio insurance, life cycle investing, buy-write, and single-stock call-buying, from the perspective of an individual investor. The authors suggest that Expected Utility is the most appropriate metric for such evaluation, as it accounts for both return and risk, and naturally handles non-linear payoffs. They assess the different options strategies under a range of assumptions of asset price behavior, investor risk appetite, and option market pricing relative to fair value. They find that for a representative investor the benefit of adding options to the portfolio is at best quite small, and most of this improvement also can be achieved through periodic portfolio rebalancing. However, the benefits of options can be greater for several special investor categories and in certain market environments. The authors also identify several popular uses of options that are likely to be quite harmful to investor welfare.
近年来,个人投资者对期权的使用急剧增长。作者从个人投资者的角度评估了几种流行的期权策略,包括投资组合保险、生命周期投资、买入-卖出和单股看涨期权购买。作者认为,预期效用是这种评估的最合适指标,因为它既考虑了回报又考虑了风险,并且自然地处理了非线性收益。他们在资产价格行为、投资者风险偏好和相对于公允价值的期权市场定价的一系列假设下评估不同的期权策略。他们发现,对于一个有代表性的投资者来说,在投资组合中添加期权的好处充其量是很小的,而这种改善大多也可以通过定期的投资组合再平衡来实现。然而,对于几个特殊的投资者类别和某些市场环境,期权的好处可能更大。作者还指出了期权的几种流行用途,这些用途可能对投资者福利相当有害。
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引用次数: 0
Term Risk-Free Rates: Methodologies, Challenges, and the Future 定期无风险利率:方法、挑战和未来
Pub Date : 2022-01-05 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2022.1.144
Xi (Figo) Liu, Yu Bai
After the global financial crisis in 2008–2009, the transition from LIBOR to risk-free rates (RFRs) began. As the transition heads into the end game, term RFRs have become one of the most critical tasks to guarantee the success of the transition. In this review article, we present different methodologies of publishing term RFRs, compare their features, and raise potential concerns. Specifically, we display practical examples that demonstrate challenges brought up by publishing and referencing term RFRs. We conclude that the “engineered” term RFRs do not fully achieve the goals of the LIBOR transition. At the end, we discuss alternatives and the future of term RFRs. We hope this review article can serve as a caveat and cautionary document for regulators and market participants who are interested in interacting with term RFRs.
2008-2009年全球金融危机后,伦敦银行同业拆借利率开始向无风险利率过渡。随着过渡进入尾声,定期RFR已成为确保过渡成功的最关键任务之一。在这篇综述文章中,我们介绍了发布术语RFR的不同方法,比较了它们的特点,并提出了潜在的问题。具体来说,我们展示了一些实例,展示了发布和引用术语RFR所带来的挑战。我们得出的结论是,“工程化”的定期RFR并没有完全实现伦敦银行同业拆借利率过渡的目标。最后,我们讨论了定期RFR的替代方案和未来。我们希望这篇综述文章能成为有兴趣与定期RFR互动的监管机构和市场参与者的警告和警示文件。
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引用次数: 3
Income Enhancement with Options 通过期权增加收入
Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI: 10.3905/jod.2021.1.143
Megan Miller, Brian Jacobsen, Martijn de Vree
Investors have always tried to use various trading strategies to juice their returns. Writing options has often been thought of as a low-risk way to get some additional income (premiums) while not disturbing the underlying asset allocation. Sometimes, however, investors are caught off guard when their option strategy does more harm than good. In this educational piece we describe one of the most common option writing strategies–covered call writing–and the practicalities of how to manage these strategies so they hopefully don’t backfire. The key is to recognize that the returns from covered call strategies are related to the volatility risk premium (also known as the variance risk premium) as well as the equity risk premium.
投资者一直试图使用各种交易策略来提高回报。认购期权通常被认为是一种低风险的方式,既能获得一些额外收入(溢价),又不会扰乱标的资产配置。然而,有时,当投资者的期权策略弊大于利时,他们会措手不及。在这篇教育性的文章中,我们描述了一种最常见的期权写作策略——涵盖看涨期权的写作——以及如何管理这些策略的实用性,这样它们就不会适得其反。关键是要认识到,备兑看涨期权策略的回报与波动性风险溢价(也称为方差风险溢价)以及股票风险溢价有关。
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引用次数: 2
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