Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0009
Hirokazu Yoshikawa, Alice J. Wuermli, J. Aber
An unprecedented half of the world’s 57 million out of school children live in conflict-affected countries, and 50% of children of primary-school-age are not attending school. In addition, the unauthorized status of many refugees and migrants worldwide is associated with experiences of social exclusion as access to employment and social services are often unavailable or constrained by host-country governments. Children and youth affected by unauthorized or refugee status are also often excluded from services to support healthy development and learning. This chapter presents a process-oriented developmental framework to guide the development and evaluation of interventions that can buffer the effects of social and political upheaval, displacement, and refugee and unauthorized status on children and youth's development. Rigorous evaluations, showing how programs mitigate the risks of displacement or refugee or unauthorized status, could yield great benefits for the fields of humanitarian aid and refugee and migration policy, making the relative dearth of such evidence even more stunning. This chapter reviews the existing literature from rigorous evaluations of interventions to address these issues, discusses the challenge of measurement of risk and protective factors in these contexts with particular sensitivity to cultural variation, as well as how to address cultural factors in the development and evaluation of interventions. The chapter concludes with specific methodological recommendations for a sound research agenda to further improve our understanding of risk and resilience in development of children and youth affected by war, displacement, and refugee or unauthorized status.
{"title":"Mitigating the Impact of Forced Displacement and Refugee and Unauthorized Status on Youth","authors":"Hirokazu Yoshikawa, Alice J. Wuermli, J. Aber","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"An unprecedented half of the world’s 57 million out of school children live in conflict-affected countries, and 50% of children of primary-school-age are not attending school. In addition, the unauthorized status of many refugees and migrants worldwide is associated with experiences of social exclusion as access to employment and social services are often unavailable or constrained by host-country governments. Children and youth affected by unauthorized or refugee status are also often excluded from services to support healthy development and learning. This chapter presents a process-oriented developmental framework to guide the development and evaluation of interventions that can buffer the effects of social and political upheaval, displacement, and refugee and unauthorized status on children and youth's development. Rigorous evaluations, showing how programs mitigate the risks of displacement or refugee or unauthorized status, could yield great benefits for the fields of humanitarian aid and refugee and migration policy, making the relative dearth of such evidence even more stunning. This chapter reviews the existing literature from rigorous evaluations of interventions to address these issues, discusses the challenge of measurement of risk and protective factors in these contexts with particular sensitivity to cultural variation, as well as how to address cultural factors in the development and evaluation of interventions. The chapter concludes with specific methodological recommendations for a sound research agenda to further improve our understanding of risk and resilience in development of children and youth affected by war, displacement, and refugee or unauthorized status.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121702866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0007
T. Betancourt, R. Frounfelker, Jenna M. Berent, B. Gautam, Saida M Abdi, A. Abdi, Z. Haji, Ali Maalim, Tej Mishra
This chapter presents an overview of a family-based intervention program and the impact it has on outcomes of parent-child relationships, family functioning, and child mental health among Bhutanese and Somali Bantu refugees in New England. The program uses a Community Based Participatory Research approach, emphasizing strong community engagement, support from community advisory boards, and the use of refugee community health workers to implement the home-visiting Family Strengthening Intervention (FSI). The FSI uses a strengths-based approach to focus on prevention, resilience, and overcoming barriers, while improving linkages to important community resources. The program is currently in its pilot phase (n=80 families) and preparing for scaling-up (n=300 families) with adaptations based on preliminary findings and lessons learned. A mixed-methods design is used to assess the effectiveness of the FSI and inform next stages of the research. This chapter presents preliminary findings of formative work and from the pilot phase of the program.
{"title":"Addressing Mental Health Disparities in Refugee Children Through Family and Community-Based Prevention","authors":"T. Betancourt, R. Frounfelker, Jenna M. Berent, B. Gautam, Saida M Abdi, A. Abdi, Z. Haji, Ali Maalim, Tej Mishra","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter presents an overview of a family-based intervention program and the impact it has on outcomes of parent-child relationships, family functioning, and child mental health among Bhutanese and Somali Bantu refugees in New England. The program uses a Community Based Participatory Research approach, emphasizing strong community engagement, support from community advisory boards, and the use of refugee community health workers to implement the home-visiting Family Strengthening Intervention (FSI). The FSI uses a strengths-based approach to focus on prevention, resilience, and overcoming barriers, while improving linkages to important community resources. The program is currently in its pilot phase (n=80 families) and preparing for scaling-up (n=300 families) with adaptations based on preliminary findings and lessons learned. A mixed-methods design is used to assess the effectiveness of the FSI and inform next stages of the research. This chapter presents preliminary findings of formative work and from the pilot phase of the program.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115319872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0005
C. Suárez-Orozco
The social context into which refugee, migrant, or unaccompanied children and youth settle has significant implications for shaping both their short-term adaptation for a variety of outcomes as well as their future participation in their new homelands. It also has significant implications for the future of the all post-industrial nations. Immigrant- and refugee-origin children face considerable challenges as they navigate their new lands, particularly during the transition period while concurrently often embodying extraordinary resilience, optimism, and work ethic. In this chapter, models for understanding the immigrant and refugee-origin child experience are articulated along with strategies for bridging the compassion gap, and developing ecologies of care aimed at serving to integrate these young people into the fabric of our societies.
{"title":"A Compassionate Perspective on Immigrant Children and Youth","authors":"C. Suárez-Orozco","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"The social context into which refugee, migrant, or unaccompanied children and youth settle has significant implications for shaping both their short-term adaptation for a variety of outcomes as well as their future participation in their new homelands. It also has significant implications for the future of the all post-industrial nations. Immigrant- and refugee-origin children face considerable challenges as they navigate their new lands, particularly during the transition period while concurrently often embodying extraordinary resilience, optimism, and work ethic. In this chapter, models for understanding the immigrant and refugee-origin child experience are articulated along with strategies for bridging the compassion gap, and developing ecologies of care aimed at serving to integrate these young people into the fabric of our societies.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132203198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0018
M. S. Sorondo
Migration is a shared condition of all humanity. We have all been strangers in a strange land. All humanity lives today as a result of migration, by themselves or their ancestors. Migration is a matter sometimes of choice, often of need, and always an inalienable right. All helpless people deserve to be helped. Offering such help is a commandment and a blessing shared among all religions. Accordingly, as Pope Francis reminds us, our duties to migrants include “to welcome”, “to protect”, “to promote”, and “to integrate.” National borders are not a result of primary natural law, as aren’t private property and clothes, “because nature did not give [humans] clothes, but art invented them”. National borders depend on social, political and geographical factors. Therefore, faced with current waves of mass migration, in order to establish practices that respond to the common good we need to be guided by three levels of responsibility. The first principle being that “in case of need all things are common”, because “every man is my brother”. This principle is relative to existence or subsistence and conditions other related issues (such as accommodation, food, housing, security, etc.). Secondly, as part of the fundamental rights of people, legal guarantees of primary rights that foster an “organic participation” in the economic and social life of the nation. Access to these economic and social goods, including education and employment, will allow people to develop their own abilities. Thirdly, a deeper sense of integration, reflecting responsibilities related to protecting, examining and developing the values that underpin the deep, stable, unity of a society— and, more fundamentally, create a horizon of public peace, understood as St. Augustine’s "tranquility in order". In particular, with regards to the aforementioned context, policies on migration should be guided by prudence, but prudence must never mean exclusion. On the contrary, governments should evaluate, “with wisdom and foresight, the extent to which their country is in a position, without prejudice to the common good of citizens, to offer a decent life to migrants, especially those truly in need of protection. Strangely enough, the response of most governments in the face of this phenomenon only seems to value the third principle, completely disregarding the first two.
{"title":"Epilogue","authors":"M. S. Sorondo","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0018","url":null,"abstract":"Migration is a shared condition of all humanity. We have all been strangers in a strange land. All humanity lives today as a result of migration, by themselves or their ancestors. Migration is a matter sometimes of choice, often of need, and always an inalienable right.\u0000All helpless people deserve to be helped. Offering such help is a commandment and a blessing shared among all religions. Accordingly, as Pope Francis reminds us, our duties to migrants include “to welcome”, “to protect”, “to promote”, and “to integrate.” \u0000National borders are not a result of primary natural law, as aren’t private property and clothes, “because nature did not give [humans] clothes, but art invented them”. National borders depend on social, political and geographical factors. Therefore, faced with current waves of mass migration, in order to establish practices that respond to the common good we need to be guided by three levels of responsibility. \u0000The first principle being that “in case of need all things are common”, because “every man is my brother”. This principle is relative to existence or subsistence and conditions other related issues (such as accommodation, food, housing, security, etc.).\u0000Secondly, as part of the fundamental rights of people, legal guarantees of primary rights that foster an “organic participation” in the economic and social life of the nation. Access to these economic and social goods, including education and employment, will allow people to develop their own abilities.\u0000Thirdly, a deeper sense of integration, reflecting responsibilities related to protecting, examining and developing the values that underpin the deep, stable, unity of a society— and, more fundamentally, create a horizon of public peace, understood as St. Augustine’s \"tranquility in order\". In particular, with regards to the aforementioned context, policies on migration should be guided by prudence, but prudence must never mean exclusion. On the contrary, governments should evaluate, “with wisdom and foresight, the extent to which their country is in a position, without prejudice to the common good of citizens, to offer a decent life to migrants, especially those truly in need of protection.\u0000Strangely enough, the response of most governments in the face of this phenomenon only seems to value the third principle, completely disregarding the first two.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122694583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0011
Sarah Dryden-Peterson
This chapter explores tensions between the stability that a model of integrating refugees into national education systems promises and the precarity that it creates. Global refugee education policy has, since 2012, focused on integrating refugees into national education systems, a radical shift from the dominant previous approach of separate schools for refugees. The policy of integration reflects the protracted nature of displacement, where return to a country of origin is elusive, and aims toward the creation of stability for young people within contexts of exile. The practice of integrating refugees, however, often tends toward experiences of isolation and exclusion for young people. The chapter demonstrates how the structures and content of education within national systems can place refugee young people outside of membership in society and limit their future opportunities.
{"title":"Inclusion and membership Through Refugee Education?","authors":"Sarah Dryden-Peterson","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0011","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter explores tensions between the stability that a model of integrating refugees into national education systems promises and the precarity that it creates. Global refugee education policy has, since 2012, focused on integrating refugees into national education systems, a radical shift from the dominant previous approach of separate schools for refugees. The policy of integration reflects the protracted nature of displacement, where return to a country of origin is elusive, and aims toward the creation of stability for young people within contexts of exile. The practice of integrating refugees, however, often tends toward experiences of isolation and exclusion for young people. The chapter demonstrates how the structures and content of education within national systems can place refugee young people outside of membership in society and limit their future opportunities.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121207672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0004
J. Bhabha
Though children have always migrated, the distinctive risks they face and the protection challenges that arise have been largely neglected. As a result, child migrants are denied basic human rights protections owed them as children, including the fundamental right to have their best interests considered. Instead these children are routinely treated first and foremost as migrants, subjected to harsh procedures and sometimes denied legal representation of even held in punitive detention facilities. The chapter explores recent encouraging policy developments that challenge the historic neglect of child migrants' rights and substitute instead measures designed to enhance the competence of migration officials vis à vis children's needs, and domestic child welfare workers' engagement with the protection challenges facing non citizen children.
{"title":"Children on the Move in the Twenty-First Century","authors":"J. Bhabha","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0004","url":null,"abstract":"Though children have always migrated, the distinctive risks they face and the protection challenges that arise have been largely neglected. As a result, child migrants are denied basic human rights protections owed them as children, including the fundamental right to have their best interests considered. Instead these children are routinely treated first and foremost as migrants, subjected to harsh procedures and sometimes denied legal representation of even held in punitive detention facilities. The chapter explores recent encouraging policy developments that challenge the historic neglect of child migrants' rights and substitute instead measures designed to enhance the competence of migration officials vis à vis children's needs, and domestic child welfare workers' engagement with the protection challenges facing non citizen children.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125117962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0013
P. Léna
This chapter focuses on one particular aspect of education for refugee children, namely science education, in the various contexts these refugees encounter, especially when immersed in cultures away from their mother language and bridges with the family culture. The universal character of natural sciences makes is precious for these displaced children. Renovating science education has been the subject of international efforts and remarkable innovative pilot projects since two decades A number of such projects, in various developing or developed countries, are reported here, with the positive impact which was observed in multi-cultural contexts. Although none of these projects yet dealt with extreme situations such as refugee camps, the lessons learned suggest to act in this direction, using the pedagogical ressources now available in many languages, as well as a potential contribution of the scientific community.
{"title":"Refugees in Education","authors":"P. Léna","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0013","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on one particular aspect of education for refugee children, namely science education, in the various contexts these refugees encounter, especially when immersed in cultures away from their mother language and bridges with the family culture. The universal character of natural sciences makes is precious for these displaced children. Renovating science education has been the subject of international efforts and remarkable innovative pilot projects since two decades A number of such projects, in various developing or developed countries, are reported here, with the positive impact which was observed in multi-cultural contexts. Although none of these projects yet dealt with extreme situations such as refugee camps, the lessons learned suggest to act in this direction, using the pedagogical ressources now available in many languages, as well as a potential contribution of the scientific community.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"5 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134132717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0008
T. Stathopoulou
This chapter presents an overview of the refugee situation in Greece after the EU-Turkey agreement in March 2016 that has led to the entrapment of more than 60.000 of refugees in the country. Drawing on the empirical findings of research conducted in six refugee camps across Greece and five shelters for unaccompanied minors in Athens greater area, the chapter examines the reception and living conditions, the feelings of insecurity and loss as well as the traumatic and discriminative experiences of the refugee population. The chapter also discusses the major methodological and ethical challenges that arise from surveying highly diverse in terms of culture and language, traumatized and vulnerable people in unstable and emergency conditions.
{"title":"Surveying the Hard-to-Survey","authors":"T. Stathopoulou","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0008","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter presents an overview of the refugee situation in Greece after the EU-Turkey agreement in March 2016 that has led to the entrapment of more than 60.000 of refugees in the country. Drawing on the empirical findings of research conducted in six refugee camps across Greece and five shelters for unaccompanied minors in Athens greater area, the chapter examines the reception and living conditions, the feelings of insecurity and loss as well as the traumatic and discriminative experiences of the refugee population. The chapter also discusses the major methodological and ethical challenges that arise from surveying highly diverse in terms of culture and language, traumatized and vulnerable people in unstable and emergency conditions.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122582822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/CALIFORNIA/9780520297128.003.0010
I. Bokova
In the face of the worst refugee crisis since World War II, deepening inequalities and the rise of violent extremism, new forms of global solidarity are required to nurture respect for all and to promote the values of inclusion, dialogue and mutual understanding. This goal stands at the heart of all UNESCO’ work to empower every woman and man with the skills and competences to strengthen a culture of peace. The challenge is twofold: to ensure universal access to learning, especially in conflict-affected countries; and to transform education systems by fostering skills for responsible global citizenship – in short for living together in trust.
{"title":"Empowering Global Citizens for a Just and Peaceful World","authors":"I. Bokova","doi":"10.1525/CALIFORNIA/9780520297128.003.0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/CALIFORNIA/9780520297128.003.0010","url":null,"abstract":"In the face of the worst refugee crisis since World War II, deepening inequalities and the rise of violent extremism, new forms of global solidarity are required to nurture respect for all and to promote the values of inclusion, dialogue and mutual understanding. This goal stands at the heart of all UNESCO’ work to empower every woman and man with the skills and competences to strengthen a culture of peace. The challenge is twofold: to ensure universal access to learning, especially in conflict-affected countries; and to transform education systems by fostering skills for responsible global citizenship – in short for living together in trust.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114941185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-04DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0002
F. Forman, V. Ramanathan
With unchecked emissions of pollutants, global warming is projected to increase to 1.50C within 15 years; to 20C within 35 years and 40C by 2100. These projections are central values with a small (<5%) probability that warming by 2100 can exceed 60C with potentially catastrophic impacts on every human being, living and yet unborn. Climate is already changing in perceptible ways through floods, droughts, wildfires, heat waves and sea level rise, displacing communities and catalyzing migration. Climate migration describes the voluntary and forced movement of people within and across habitats due to changes in climate. While estimates vary from 25 million to as many as one billion climate change migrants by 2050, achieving reliable quantitative estimates of future climate migration faces forbidding obstacles due to: 1) a wide range of projected warming due to uncertainties in climate feedbacks; 2) the lack of a settled definition for climate migration; and 3) the causal complexity of migration due to variability in non-environmental factors such as bioregion, culture, economics, politics and individual factors. But waiting for reliable estimates this creates unacceptable ethical risks. Therefore, we advocate a probabilistic approach to climate migration that accounts for both central and low probability warming projections as the only ethical response to the unfolding crisis. We conclude that in the absence of drastic mitigation actions, climate change-induced mass migration can become a major threat during the latter half of this century.
{"title":"Unchecked Climate Change and Mass Migration","authors":"F. Forman, V. Ramanathan","doi":"10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/california/9780520297128.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"With unchecked emissions of pollutants, global warming is projected to increase to 1.50C within 15 years; to 20C within 35 years and 40C by 2100. These projections are central values with a small (<5%) probability that warming by 2100 can exceed 60C with potentially catastrophic impacts on every human being, living and yet unborn. Climate is already changing in perceptible ways through floods, droughts, wildfires, heat waves and sea level rise, displacing communities and catalyzing migration. Climate migration describes the voluntary and forced movement of people within and across habitats due to changes in climate. While estimates vary from 25 million to as many as one billion climate change migrants by 2050, achieving reliable quantitative estimates of future climate migration faces forbidding obstacles due to: 1) a wide range of projected warming due to uncertainties in climate feedbacks; 2) the lack of a settled definition for climate migration; and 3) the causal complexity of migration due to variability in non-environmental factors such as bioregion, culture, economics, politics and individual factors. But waiting for reliable estimates this creates unacceptable ethical risks. Therefore, we advocate a probabilistic approach to climate migration that accounts for both central and low probability warming projections as the only ethical response to the unfolding crisis. We conclude that in the absence of drastic mitigation actions, climate change-induced mass migration can become a major threat during the latter half of this century.","PeriodicalId":342755,"journal":{"name":"Humanitarianism and Mass Migration","volume":"72 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113943537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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