In several fields, modern academics trumpet the contingency of social science and the indeterminacy of institutional structures. The Japanese experience during the first half of the 20th century, however, instead tracks what much-derided chauvinists have claimed all along: modern legal institutions largely trump indigenous organizational frameworks, and modern rational-choice theory nicely predicts how people respond to such institutions. As orientalist as it may seem, such theory goes a long way toward explaining the real world in which we live. Prepared for a conference on the rule of law in Asia, UCLA School of Law, January 2001.
{"title":"Property Rights and Indigenous Tradition Among Early 20th Century Japanese Firms","authors":"Y. Miwa, J. Ramseyer","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.262337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.262337","url":null,"abstract":"In several fields, modern academics trumpet the contingency of social science and the indeterminacy of institutional structures. The Japanese experience during the first half of the 20th century, however, instead tracks what much-derided chauvinists have claimed all along: modern legal institutions largely trump indigenous organizational frameworks, and modern rational-choice theory nicely predicts how people respond to such institutions. As orientalist as it may seem, such theory goes a long way toward explaining the real world in which we live. Prepared for a conference on the rule of law in Asia, UCLA School of Law, January 2001.","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130329474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a test of equality of two covariance matrices based on the maximum standardized di erence of scalar covariances of two sample covariance matrices.We derive the tail probability of the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic by the tube method.However the usual formal tube formula has to be suitably modi ed,because in this case the index set, around which the tube s formed,has zero critical radius.
{"title":"Maximum Covariance Di erence Test for Equality of Two Covariance Matrices","authors":"A. Takemura, S. Kuriki","doi":"10.1090/conm/287/04792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1090/conm/287/04792","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a test of equality of two covariance matrices based on the maximum standardized di erence of scalar covariances of two sample covariance matrices.We derive the tail probability of the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic by the tube method.However the usual formal tube formula has to be suitably modi ed,because in this case the index set, around which the tube s formed,has zero critical radius.","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123738150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-08-01DOI: 10.7208/CHICAGO/9780226387017.003.0005
Shin-ichi Fukuda
In this paper, we first show that middle-term and long-term commercial bank loans were less mobile forms of external liabilities but that a large fraction of external bank debt had been financed by short-term loans in a large number of developing countries. We then present a simple theoretical model where the vulnerable financial structure in developing countries might emerge as a result of efficient monitoring activities by competitive private banks. In the model, we assume both asymmetric information and liquidation risk in the international financial market. The existence of asymmetric information calls for the role of a short-term lender in monitoring borrowers' performance. However, since short-term debt can be a source of liquidity problems, total effects of efficient monitoring on economic welfare might be largely reduced when it increases the possibility of a liquidity shortfall.
{"title":"The Impacts of Bank Loans on Economic Development: An Implication for East Asia from an Equilibrium Contract Theory","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda","doi":"10.7208/CHICAGO/9780226387017.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7208/CHICAGO/9780226387017.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we first show that middle-term and long-term commercial bank loans were less mobile forms of external liabilities but that a large fraction of external bank debt had been financed by short-term loans in a large number of developing countries. We then present a simple theoretical model where the vulnerable financial structure in developing countries might emerge as a result of efficient monitoring activities by competitive private banks. In the model, we assume both asymmetric information and liquidation risk in the international financial market. The existence of asymmetric information calls for the role of a short-term lender in monitoring borrowers' performance. However, since short-term debt can be a source of liquidity problems, total effects of efficient monitoring on economic welfare might be largely reduced when it increases the possibility of a liquidity shortfall.","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134050600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1998-12-01DOI: 10.4324/9780203164839-17
Katsuhito Iwai
In the traditional economic theory, whether classical or neoclassical, the long-run state of the economy is an equilibrium state in which all profits in excess of normal rate vanish completely. If there is a theory of long-run profits, it is a theory about the determination of the normal rate of profit. This paper challenges this long-held tradition in economics. It uses a simple evolutionary model of Iwai (Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 5, 1984, 321-351) to demonstrate that what the economy will approach over a long passage of time is not a classical or neoclassical equilibrium of uniform technology but a statistical equilibrium of technological disequilibria which reproduces a relative dispersion of efficiencies in a statistically balanced form. As Joseph Schumpeter once remarked, "surplus values (profits in excess of normal rate) may be impossible in perfect equilibrium, but can be ever present because that equilibrium is never allowed to establish itself." The paper also shows that this evolutionary model behaves like a neoclassical growth model if we ignore all the complexity of the evolutionary process working at the microscopic level and only look at the macroscopic performance. It thus provides a critique of the neoclassical growth accounting which decomposes the overall growth process into a movement along an aggregate production function and an autonomous shift of that function.
{"title":"Schumpeterian Dynamics: A Disequilibrium Theory of Long-run Profits","authors":"Katsuhito Iwai","doi":"10.4324/9780203164839-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203164839-17","url":null,"abstract":"In the traditional economic theory, whether classical or neoclassical, the long-run state of the economy is an equilibrium state in which all profits in excess of normal rate vanish completely. If there is a theory of long-run profits, it is a theory about the determination of the normal rate of profit. This paper challenges this long-held tradition in economics. It uses a simple evolutionary model of Iwai (Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 5, 1984, 321-351) to demonstrate that what the economy will approach over a long passage of time is not a classical or neoclassical equilibrium of uniform technology but a statistical equilibrium of technological disequilibria which reproduces a relative dispersion of efficiencies in a statistically balanced form. As Joseph Schumpeter once remarked, \"surplus values (profits in excess of normal rate) may be impossible in perfect equilibrium, but can be ever present because that equilibrium is never allowed to establish itself.\" The paper also shows that this evolutionary model behaves like a neoclassical growth model if we ignore all the complexity of the evolutionary process working at the microscopic level and only look at the macroscopic performance. It thus provides a critique of the neoclassical growth accounting which decomposes the overall growth process into a movement along an aggregate production function and an autonomous shift of that function.","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121651608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Distribution Structure in Three Continents: An Evolutionary Analysis of Italy, Japan and the United States","authors":"K. Nishimura, L. Punzo","doi":"10.1007/S001830050025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/S001830050025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"127 10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124240116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The asymmetrical movement between the downward and upward phases of the sample paths of many financial time series has been commonly noted by economists. Since this feature cannot be described by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-average (ARIMA) model and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) model, we introduce a class of the Simultaneous Switching Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SSARIMA) model with ARCH disturbances. The asymmetrical volatility function of financial time series with daily effects can easily be estimated by this modelling. We also report a simple empirical result on stock price daily indices of the Nikkei-225 and SP-500.
{"title":"Estimation of Asymmetrical Volatility for Asset Prices: The Simultaneous Switching ARIMA Approach","authors":"N. Kunitomo, Seisho Sato","doi":"10.14490/jjss.32.119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14490/jjss.32.119","url":null,"abstract":"The asymmetrical movement between the downward and upward phases of the sample paths of many financial time series has been commonly noted by economists. Since this feature cannot be described by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-average (ARIMA) model and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) model, we introduce a class of the Simultaneous Switching Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SSARIMA) model with ARCH disturbances. The asymmetrical volatility function of financial time series with daily effects can easily be estimated by this modelling. We also report a simple empirical result on stock price daily indices of the Nikkei-225 and SP-500.","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131266897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1997-05-01DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-26928-0_15
T. Okazaki, M. Okuno-Fujiwara
{"title":"Evolution of Economic Systems: The Case of Japan","authors":"T. Okazaki, M. Okuno-Fujiwara","doi":"10.1007/978-1-349-26928-0_15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-26928-0_15","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129683210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Vacuum of Governance in the Japanese Bank Management","authors":"Masaharu Hanazaki, A. Horiuchi","doi":"10.1057/9780230288140_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230288140_6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127569781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shuhei Aoki, Julen Esteban‐Pretel, T. Okazaki, Y. Sawada
{"title":"The Role of the Government in Facilitating TFP Growth during Japan’s Rapid-growth Era","authors":"Shuhei Aoki, Julen Esteban‐Pretel, T. Okazaki, Y. Sawada","doi":"10.1057/9780230295018_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230295018_4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132202116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.4337/9781845421601.00011
K. Nishimura, K. Minetaki, M. Shirai, Futoshi Kurokawa
The purpose of this paper is two-folds. First, we examine the direction and the magnitude of substitutability or complementarity between information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs to know about differential impacts of information and com-munication technology on labor demand. In this way, we can obtain information about what segments of workers information and communication technology can effectively substu-tute for. Second, we estimate contribution of information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs on the value-added growth of the Japanese economy in the recent turbulent era (1980s and 1990s) and explore factors determining technological progress. In particular, we investigate whether rapid accumulation of information-related capital stock has a positive effect on technological progress, examining IT externality. We also discern the effect of compositional changes in labor inputs on technological progress, examining the inflexibility issue and IT-induced technological obsolescence issue. Three remarkable facts emerge from our result with respect to substitutability/complementarity issues. First, IT capital stocks are shown to be significant substitutes for young workers with a low education level, whereas old workers with a low education level are consistently quasi-fixed in all industries under investigation. Second, IT capital stocks have complemen-tary relationship with workers with a high education level in many industries. Third, workers with a high education level and those with a low education level are substitutes. These all suggest that IT investment and human capital accumulation are of utmost importance to overcome possible shortage (in relative terms) of young workers with a low education level caused by rapidly aging population. As for IT externality, we find at first positive correlation between IT stocks and techno-logical progress in manufacturing, suggesting a strong externality effect of IT capital stocks. In the first glance it is very promising, since this suggests that this IT externality can be used for boosting productivity growth. However, the correlation is not robust. First, if non-manufacturing industries are included, the correlation vanishes. Second, if "Electrical Machinery" is excluded from the sample of manufacturing, the correlation also vanishes. Thus, we fail to discern clear-cut evidence for IT externality. Thus, the proposition that IT "revolution"can pop up productivity growth and can counter the pressure of aging population is not supported by our data, although investment in IT-producing industries is surely an important driving force for economic growth through substitution effects. As for the effect of labor force composition on the rate of technological progress, the results do not support that the "inflexible old worker" hypothesis of productivity slowdown. There is no correlation between the rate of technological progress and the ratio o
{"title":"Effects of Information Technology and Aging Work Force on Labor Demand and Technological Progress in Japanese Industries: 1980-1998","authors":"K. Nishimura, K. Minetaki, M. Shirai, Futoshi Kurokawa","doi":"10.4337/9781845421601.00011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781845421601.00011","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is two-folds. First, we examine the direction and the magnitude of substitutability or complementarity between information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs to know about differential impacts of information and com-munication technology on labor demand. In this way, we can obtain information about what segments of workers information and communication technology can effectively substu-tute for. Second, we estimate contribution of information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs on the value-added growth of the Japanese economy in the recent turbulent era (1980s and 1990s) and explore factors determining technological progress. In particular, we investigate whether rapid accumulation of information-related capital stock has a positive effect on technological progress, examining IT externality. We also discern the effect of compositional changes in labor inputs on technological progress, examining the inflexibility issue and IT-induced technological obsolescence issue. Three remarkable facts emerge from our result with respect to substitutability/complementarity issues. First, IT capital stocks are shown to be significant substitutes for young workers with a low education level, whereas old workers with a low education level are consistently quasi-fixed in all industries under investigation. Second, IT capital stocks have complemen-tary relationship with workers with a high education level in many industries. Third, workers with a high education level and those with a low education level are substitutes. These all suggest that IT investment and human capital accumulation are of utmost importance to overcome possible shortage (in relative terms) of young workers with a low education level caused by rapidly aging population. As for IT externality, we find at first positive correlation between IT stocks and techno-logical progress in manufacturing, suggesting a strong externality effect of IT capital stocks. In the first glance it is very promising, since this suggests that this IT externality can be used for boosting productivity growth. However, the correlation is not robust. First, if non-manufacturing industries are included, the correlation vanishes. Second, if \"Electrical Machinery\" is excluded from the sample of manufacturing, the correlation also vanishes. Thus, we fail to discern clear-cut evidence for IT externality. Thus, the proposition that IT \"revolution\"can pop up productivity growth and can counter the pressure of aging population is not supported by our data, although investment in IT-producing industries is surely an important driving force for economic growth through substitution effects. As for the effect of labor force composition on the rate of technological progress, the results do not support that the \"inflexible old worker\" hypothesis of productivity slowdown. There is no correlation between the rate of technological progress and the ratio o","PeriodicalId":345004,"journal":{"name":"CIRJE F-Series","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126814754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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