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A note on the general elections and long memory: evidence from the London Stock Exchange 关于大选和长期记忆的笔记:来自伦敦证券交易所的证据
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720659
Cheah Eng Tuck, Lee Yoong Hon
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the weak-form requires that there is no serial correlation between the returns at different times and successive price changes. On the contrary, stock returns displaying statistically significant autocorrelation between observations widely separated in time, or long memory, would weaken the properties derived from martingale models for pricing derivatives and other financial assets. Using spectral regression method, the fractional differencing parameter is estimated using 522 trading days (2 years post-UK general election day) in the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Evidence suggests that, regardless of the political party forming the government and consistent with findings for major capital markets, there is no evidence to suggest that the market is inefficient in the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.
弱形式的有效市场假设(EMH)要求不同时期的收益与连续的价格变化之间不存在序列相关性。相反,股票回报在时间上或长记忆上广泛分离的观察结果之间显示统计上显著的自相关性,将削弱衍生品和其他金融资产定价的鞅模型的性质。使用谱回归方法,利用伦敦证券交易所(LSE)的522个交易日(英国大选日后2年)估计分数差分参数。证据表明,无论哪个政党组成政府,与主要资本市场的研究结果一致,没有证据表明市场在有效市场假说的弱形式下是低效的。
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引用次数: 3
Does the rule for voluntary disclosure induce truthful disclosure? 自愿披露的规则是否会导致真实披露?
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720642
Chen-Wen Chen, V. Liu
This article demonstrates how Rule 10b-5 of the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act fails to induce voluntary disclosure. We show that company owners may deter the disclosure policy for their financing decisions. While there is a link between the way in which firms raise external capital and the information which their firms disclose, we show that the transformed reaction of disclosure is the signal for the company's financing policy.
本文论证了1934年《证券交易法》第10b-5条规则如何未能诱导自愿披露。我们表明,公司所有者可能会阻止其融资决策的披露政策。虽然企业对外融资的方式与其披露的信息之间存在联系,但我们表明披露反应的转变是公司融资政策的信号。
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引用次数: 1
Efficiency of the South African equity market 南非股票市场的效率
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720717
D. McMillan, P. Thupayagale
The article examines long memory in equity returns and volatility for South Africa using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model in order to assess the efficiency of the market. The sample considered encompasses a period of equity market reform in order to ascertain if such reforms promoted efficiency in the market. The results show that volatility exhibits a predictable component in both sample periods, while returns in both sample periods do not. This suggests that equity market reforms had a benign impact on the market.
本文使用ARFIMA-FIGARCH模型检验了南非股票回报和波动性的长期记忆,以评估市场效率。所考虑的样本包括一段时间的股权市场改革,以确定这种改革是否促进了市场效率。结果表明,波动性在两个样本周期中都具有可预测的成分,而收益率在两个样本周期中都不具有可预测的成分。这表明,股市改革对市场产生了良性影响。
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引用次数: 30
Some properties of absolute returns as a proxy for volatility 绝对收益的一些属性作为波动性的代表
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720709
D. Giles
We use the stochastic volatility model as a basis for investigating the statistical properties of absolute returns as a measure of latent volatility in financial markets. Our results are compared with existing results for squared returns.
我们使用随机波动率模型作为研究绝对收益作为金融市场潜在波动率度量的统计特性的基础。将我们的结果与现有的平方回报结果进行比较。
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引用次数: 15
The stock market's valuationof R&D externalities 股票市场对研发外部性的评估
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720667
Hironobu Miyazaki, Hiroyuki Aman
R&D, particularly basic research, is generally considered as a public good. It provides positive externalities to other firms. This article investigates rival firms' stock-price responses to an increase in the R&D expenditures of a firm. Examining firms in the pharmaceutical industry, we found that the market valuations of some rival firms benefit from R&D externalities. Moreover, the cross-sectional analysis indicated that R&D-intensive firms benefit immensely from them. From this result, investors might assess that these firms have the full potential to absorb new R&D knowledge.
研发,特别是基础研究,通常被认为是一种公共产品。它为其他公司提供了正外部性。本文研究了竞争对手公司的股票价格对公司研发支出增加的反应。通过对医药行业企业的考察,我们发现一些竞争对手的市场估值受益于研发外部性。此外,横断面分析表明,研发密集型企业从中获益巨大。根据这一结果,投资者可以评估这些公司完全有潜力吸收新的研发知识。
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引用次数: 3
Foreign exchange intervention and central bank independence: the Latin American experience 外汇干预与央行独立性:拉丁美洲的经验
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701735996
M. Nunes, S. Da Silva
Employing data from 13 Latin American countries, we find that greater central bank independence is associated with lesser intervention in the foreign exchange market, and also with leaning-against-the-wind intervention. We also find that the structural reforms that occurred in Latin America mostly in the 1990s helped to reduce the need for foreign exchange intervention.
利用来自13个拉丁美洲国家的数据,我们发现,央行独立性越强,对外汇市场的干预就越少,也就越倾向于逆风干预。我们还发现,主要在20世纪90年代发生在拉丁美洲的结构性改革有助于减少对外汇干预的需求。
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引用次数: 2
An alternative method for measuring risk compensation of event jumps 一种度量事件跳跃风险补偿的替代方法
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720683
Shu-Hsien Chen, M. Tsai, Fangfang Liao
The portfolio management strategy can gain additional wealth from measuring the cost of accounting for events jumps. This study captures the characteristic of jumps on international equities return in the real world. This frame work follows the Das and Uppal (2004) and bridges the gap on the p. 2817. We find, in their study, the problem that exists an expected term in the final solution of compensating wealth. This article also finds some relationship between the jump size and portfolio weights on the risk compensation.
投资组合管理策略可以从度量事件跳跃的会计成本中获得额外的财富。这项研究抓住了现实世界中国际股票回报跳跃的特点。这个框架作品遵循Das和Uppal(2004),并弥补了第2817页的差距。在他们的研究中,我们发现在补偿财富的最终解中存在一个期望项的问题。本文还发现了跳跃大小与投资组合权重对风险补偿的关系。
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引用次数: 1
A threshold model for the Hong Kong warrant prices 香港权证价格的门槛模型
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720600
K. Wong, T. Chong
This article examines the factors that are not considered in the Black–Scholes model in determining the price of warrants. Using the outstanding percentage as a threshold variable, we test for the existence of threshold effect in warrant prices. It is shown that for warrants with a low outstanding percentage, an increase in the outstanding percentage will lower the call price. On the other hand, for warrants with high outstanding percentage, the call price is less affected by the outstanding percentage.
本文考察了Black-Scholes模型在确定权证价格时未考虑的因素。以未偿比例作为门槛变量,检验权证价格是否存在门槛效应。结果表明,对于已发行比例较低的权证,已发行比例的增加会降低认购价格。另一方面,对于高流通率的权证,认购价格受流通率的影响较小。
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引用次数: 1
A nonparametric approach tothe noise density in stochastic volatility models 随机波动模型中噪声密度的非参数方法
Pub Date : 2008-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701736010
S. Alfarano, F. Wagner, M. Milakovic
We propose a nonparametric method to determine the functional form of the noise density in discrete-time stochastic volatility models of financial returns. Our approach suggests that the assumption of Gaussian noise is often adequate, but we do observe deviations from Gaussian noise for some assets, for instance gold.
我们提出了一种非参数方法来确定金融收益离散时间随机波动模型中噪声密度的函数形式。我们的方法表明高斯噪声的假设通常是足够的,但我们确实观察到一些资产偏离高斯噪声,例如黄金。
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引用次数: 3
Are stock returns related toshort-term and long-term past returns? Australian evidence 股票收益与短期和长期的过去收益有关吗?澳大利亚的证据
Pub Date : 2008-07-08 DOI: 10.1080/17446540701720535
philip. gharghori, Ronald Lee, M. Veeraraghavan
The purpose of this article is to identify whether there is a short-term continuation of returns and a long-term reversal of returns in an Australian setting and to subsequently investigate if the Capital Asset Pricing Model (hereafter CAPM) and the Fama and French (1993) three factor model (hereafter FFM) are capable of explaining these anomalies. We find a short-term continuation of returns but not a long-term reversal of returns. We also find that both models fail to explain the short-term continuation in returns. However, the FFM yields higher explanatory power than the CAPM.
本文的目的是确定在澳大利亚是否存在短期回报的延续和长期回报的逆转,并随后调查资本资产定价模型(以下简称CAPM)和Fama和French(1993)三因素模型(以下简称FFM)是否能够解释这些异常现象。我们发现短期回报会持续,但长期回报不会逆转。我们还发现,这两种模型都不能解释收益的短期延续。但是,FFM比CAPM具有更高的解释力。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Applied Financial Economics Letters
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