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European strategies in post-pandemic peer competition: implications for America 大流行后同行竞争中的欧洲战略:对美国的启示
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110473
John R. Deni
ABSTRACT The recent reconceptualization of national and/or defense strategies, hangovers from the sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of the pandemic-induced recession in four of the most powerful European countries – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – will have profound implications for the United States. Through Republican and Democratic administrations, most American political leaders, experts in academia and think tanks, and other opinion leaders in the media and elsewhere have consistently held that Europe is vital to American national security. This is particularly true during an era of great power competition, as the United States works to prevent China’s authoritarian governance system and its statist economic model from becoming dominant. Given recent changes in the grand strategies of America’s most important European allies and their shifting abilities to fulfill those strategies, Washington will have an increasingly difficult time fulfilling its own goals and objectives. American strategy relies on European allies for competition with near-peers as well as defense of the global commons and projection of hard and soft power overseas to favorably influence events. Shifting capabilities, capacity, and will within Europe – all framed within evolving European strategies – will make it difficult for Washington to rely on its allies.
最近对国家和/或国防战略的重新定义,主权债务危机的后遗症,以及法国、德国、意大利和英国这四个最强大的欧洲国家因大流行引发的经济衰退的影响,将对美国产生深远的影响。在共和党和民主党政府中,大多数美国政治领导人、学术界和智库专家以及媒体和其他地方的意见领袖始终认为,欧洲对美国的国家安全至关重要。在大国竞争的时代尤其如此,因为美国努力防止中国的威权治理体系和中央集权经济模式占据主导地位。鉴于美国最重要的欧洲盟友最近在大战略上的变化,以及它们实现这些战略的能力的变化,华盛顿将越来越难以实现自己的目标。美国的战略依赖于欧洲盟友与近邻竞争,捍卫全球公域,并在海外投射硬实力和软实力,以对事态产生有利影响。欧洲内部不断变化的能力、能力和意愿——所有这些都在不断演变的欧洲战略框架内——将使华盛顿难以依赖其盟友。
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引用次数: 2
Role enactment and the contestation of global cybersecurity governance 角色设定与全球网络安全治理之争
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110485
Xinchuchu Gao, Xuechen Chen
ABSTRACT This research seeks to unpack the development of the EU as a security actor in cyberspace. Drawing on the theoretical approach of role theory, this article shows that the EU’s role in cyberspace should be understood in relationality to the other poles. On the one hand, the declining hegemonic role of the US in cyberspace as well as the divergence between the US and the EU with regard to cybersecurity governance has made the EU more aware of the need for cyber sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Therefore, the EU seeks to pursue a role of an autonomous cybersecurity player through the enactment of cybersecurity at institutional and operational level. On the other hand, under conditions of increasing interdependence, the EU has considered international cooperation to address challenges in cyberspace as a strategic priority, therefore seeking to act as a promoter of a multi-stakeholder model. Moreover, interpolariy in cyberspace determines the contestation of EU role by other poles. While the EU has recorded some small successes as a regulation-setter, emerging poles of power in the cybersecurity domain contest the EU’s desired role, promoting more state-centric approaches and seeking to transfer regulatory authority in the cybersecurity domain to the UN.
摘要本研究旨在揭示欧盟作为网络空间安全参与者的发展历程。本文借鉴角色理论的理论方法,表明欧盟在网络空间中的角色应与其他两极相对理解。一方面,美国在网络空间的霸权地位下降,以及美国和欧盟在网络安全治理方面的分歧,使欧盟更加意识到网络主权和战略自主的必要性。因此,欧盟寻求通过在机构和运营层面制定网络安全,发挥自主网络安全参与者的作用。另一方面,在日益相互依存的条件下,欧盟将开展国际合作应对网络空间挑战视为战略优先事项,因此寻求成为多方利益攸关方模式的推动者。此外,网络空间的介入决定了其他两极对欧盟角色的争夺。尽管欧盟作为监管制定者取得了一些小的成功,但网络安全领域的新兴力量对欧盟的预期作用提出了质疑,推动了更以国家为中心的方法,并寻求将网络安全领域中的监管权移交给联合国。
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引用次数: 1
Persevering with bandwagoning, not hedging: why European security cooperation still conforms to realism 坚持随波逐流而不是对冲:为什么欧洲安全合作仍然符合现实
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110476
Lorenzo Cladi
ABSTRACT Over the past few years, European security cooperation has been revived. The EU has launched several defence initiatives and some member states, such as France have launched their own collaborative initiatives. The renewed activism in European security cooperation followed several years of inactivity and warrants theoretical investigation. Hedging is a concept that has been employed to make sense of renewed activism in European security cooperation. By pursuing hedging, Europeans are preparing for a future in which the US might be unwilling or unable to get involved, and to assist with, European security affairs. Advancing a neorealist analysis, this article argues that European states’ efforts to increase cooperation remain consistent with the broader trajectory of European security cooperation since the end of the Cold War. European states remain dependent on the US for their security and are still far from autonomously projecting their influence internationally. This article illustrates the argument with reference to the recent withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and the French promise to wind down its commitment in the Sahel. The implications of this argument are discussed in detail.
摘要过去几年,欧洲安全合作死灰复燃。欧盟发起了几项国防倡议,一些成员国,如法国,也发起了自己的合作倡议。欧洲安全合作在几年的不活跃之后重新活跃起来,值得进行理论调查。对冲是一个被用来理解欧洲安全合作中新的积极性的概念。通过寻求对冲,欧洲人正在为美国可能不愿意或无法参与并协助欧洲安全事务的未来做准备。本文提出了一种新现实主义分析,认为欧洲国家加强合作的努力与冷战结束以来欧洲安全合作的更广泛轨迹保持一致。欧洲国家的安全仍然依赖美国,而且还远远没有自主发挥其国际影响力。这篇文章阐述了美国最近从阿富汗撤军和法国承诺减少其在萨赫勒地区的承诺的论点。详细讨论了这一论点的含义。
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引用次数: 2
Conclusion: interpolarity - bridging international relations with a dilemma 结论:内插-弥合国际关系与困境
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110486
Ö. Terzi
ABSTRACT This concluding piece to the Special Issue on Interpolarity: Revisiting Security and the Global Order focuses on the concept of interpolarity as both a conceptual tool to understanding multipolar interdependencies and as an approach aiming to change the nature of multipolarity from one of rivalry and contestation toward one of cooperation in the face of global challenges. It engages with the question: To what extent is overcoming the tension between these poles a dilemma between interpolarity being a desirable goal and being a normative compromise on the values these poles want to uphold in the international arena? After presenting both sides of the dilemma, this piece concludes that an “interpolar” approach to conceptualizing International Relations (IR) can facilitate a more inclusive and comprehensive approach toward a truly global study of IR.
本文是《内插性:重新审视安全和全球秩序》特刊的结语,重点讨论了内插性的概念,它既是理解多极相互依存关系的概念工具,也是一种旨在改变多极本质的方法,即在面对全球挑战时,从竞争和争论转向合作。它涉及到这样一个问题:克服这两个极点之间的紧张关系在多大程度上是一种两难的选择,即在国际舞台上作为一个可取的目标和在这些极点想要坚持的价值观上作出规范妥协之间的两难选择?在介绍了这一困境的双方之后,本文得出结论,用“两极间”的方法来概念化国际关系(IR),可以促进一种更包容、更全面的方法来进行真正的国际关系全球研究。
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引用次数: 1
Differentiated integration and role conceptions in multilateral security orders. A comparative study of France, Germany, Ireland and Romania 多边安全秩序中的差别化一体化与角色观念。法国、德国、爱尔兰和罗马尼亚的比较研究
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110475
Nele Marianne Ewers-Peters, Cornelia-Adriana Baciu
ABSTRACT An extensive size of literature has investigated the multifaceted dimensions of differentiated integration in Europe. Notwithstanding, we know little about the drivers and strategic underpinnings of differentiated integration in the high politics areas concerning national and international security, such as foreign policy, security and defence. What explains the variation in states’ foreign policy preferences of integration in multilateral security orders? In this article, we seek to explain this variation by putting forward a two-level argument. First, we claim that states adopt a genuine role player conception underpinned by a mixture of relative gains, absolute gains, and normative factors. Second, we propose a novel operational model to examine member states’ efforts for cooperation and integration in the security and defence domain based on their threat perceptions, level of ambitions, strategic partnerships, military spending, and troop deployments. To illustrate our argument, we employ a comparative case study design, examining four countries: Germany, France, Ireland and Romania. The article finds that the analysed countries play conspicuous roles in the Euro-Atlantic security order. France takes the role of an agile power-projector, Germany embraces the role of a global responsibility taker, Ireland plays the role of a peacekeeping neutral, and Romania of a small regional power.
大量文献研究了欧洲差异化一体化的多层面。然而,在涉及国家和国际安全的高级政治领域,如外交政策、安全和国防,我们对差异化一体化的驱动因素和战略基础知之甚少。如何解释各国对融入多边安全秩序的外交政策偏好的变化?在本文中,我们试图通过提出两个层次的论证来解释这种差异。首先,我们认为各国采用了一种真正的角色参与者概念,其基础是相对收益、绝对收益和规范因素的混合。其次,我们提出了一种新的操作模式,根据成员国的威胁感知、雄心水平、战略伙伴关系、军费开支和部队部署,来检查成员国在安全和防务领域的合作与整合努力。为了说明我们的论点,我们采用了比较案例研究设计,考察了四个国家:德国、法国、爱尔兰和罗马尼亚。文章发现,所分析的国家在欧洲-大西洋安全秩序中发挥着显著的作用。法国扮演了灵活的权力投射者的角色,德国扮演了全球责任承担者的角色,爱尔兰扮演了维持和平的中立者的角色,罗马尼亚扮演了地区小国的角色。
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引用次数: 2
Transatlantic cooperation in flux: Europe’s small and cautious steps towards “strategic autonomy” 不断变化的跨大西洋合作:欧洲走向“战略自治”的谨慎小步
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110477
G. R. Olsen
ABSTRACT The existing, liberal world order is under pressure and transatlantic cooperation on security is challenged. The paper raises the question, why have the European steps and policy initiatives towards addressing the new international threats and challenges to Europe been so limited and cautious. The first argument states it is because the European decision-makers were unable to agree when it came to implementing salient and concrete policies addressing new security threats and building strategic autonomy. The second argument states that the European decision-makers were only able to reach agreement on diffuse and symbolic policy ideas like building “strategic autonomy” for the European Union. The third argument states that the Europeans were able to address some of the new security challenges if it took place within NATO. The analysis shows that the European responses and reactions to the increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific were subdued. The Europeans were unable to launch any concrete reactions to the American unilateral abrogation of the Iranian nuclear deal, to the unilateral American policy initiatives in the Israel-Palestine conflict or to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, the Europeans increased the level of their defense spending and they also cooperated closely with their transatlantic partner to counter the assertive Russian foreign policy behavior.
摘要现有的自由世界秩序面临压力,跨大西洋安全合作面临挑战。该文件提出了一个问题,为什么欧洲应对欧洲面临的新的国际威胁和挑战的步骤和政策举措如此有限和谨慎。第一种观点认为,这是因为欧洲决策者在实施应对新安全威胁的突出而具体的政策和建立战略自主性方面无法达成一致。第二种观点认为,欧洲决策者只能就分散和象征性的政策理念达成一致,比如为欧盟建立“战略自主”。第三种观点认为,如果在北约内部进行,欧洲人能够应对一些新的安全挑战。分析表明,欧洲对印太紧张局势加剧的反应和反应有所缓和。欧洲人无法对美国单方面废除伊朗核协议、美国在以巴冲突中的单方面政策举措或美国从阿富汗撤军做出任何具体反应。然而,欧洲人增加了国防开支,他们还与跨大西洋伙伴密切合作,以对抗俄罗斯强硬的外交政策行为。
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引用次数: 2
How to achieve defence cooperation in Europe? The subregional approach 如何在欧洲实现防务合作?分区域办法
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2124157
Lorenzo Cladi
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引用次数: 2
Strategic Facts as a Comprehensive Model for Defence Analysis 作为防务分析综合模型的战略事实
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2113516
Gintautas Razma
ABSTRACT This article explores the new research area of so-called strategic facts by examining the theoretical interaction between political and military elements in the context of defence. The research methodology uses a systems-thinking approach to conceptual interpretation. Specifically, the article references the work of French philosopher Émile Durkheim and his notion of social facts. The study concludes by suggesting that it is possible to compile an explanatory framework of the political-military nexus at the strategic level of defence by applying strategic facts as a model for defence analysis. It is also possible to identify strategic facts in the area of “defence as politics.” Further research into this topic would be useful.
本文通过考察国防背景下政治和军事因素之间的理论相互作用,探索了所谓战略事实的新研究领域。研究方法采用系统思维方法进行概念解释。具体来说,文章引用了法国哲学家Émile迪尔凯姆的作品和他的社会事实概念。该研究的结论是,通过将战略事实作为国防分析的模型,有可能在国防战略层面编制一个政治-军事关系的解释框架。在“国防即政治”这一领域,也有可能确定战略事实。进一步研究这个问题将是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Learning the lessons of COVID-19: homeland resilience in the United Kingdom - is it now time for both a dedicated civil defense organization and a paramilitary force? 吸取2019冠状病毒病的教训:英国的家园复原力——现在是建立专门的民防组织和准军事部队的时候了吗?
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2110481
Thornton Rod, Marina Miron
ABSTRACT The United Kingdom’s homeland resilience capacity is poor. The COVID-19 pandemic proved this. Back in 2019, the UK had been labeled as the best prepared country in the world for a pandemic. And yet, by 2020, and once COVID-19 had struck, the UK became “unequivocally” the hardest hit country in Europe – particularly in terms of excess mortality. In this article it is argued that the UK’s continental neighbors coped better than the UK because they had better homeland resilience capacity. This was provided by their having civil defense organizations, paramilitary forces and militaries which are specifically designed to contribute to homeland emergencies. The UK, in contrast and almost uniquely in the world, lacks both civil defense and paramilitary bodies and, moreover, it has armed forces that are not actually structured to provide help in domestic emergencies. Given the problems highlighted during COVID-19, is it now time for the UK to set up its own bodies specifically tasked with alleviating domestic emergencies? This article explores this question by comparing the UK’s pandemic response with that of Spain – a country which, according to all available data, should have performed worse than the UK. But it did not. Why?
摘要英国的国土恢复能力很差。新冠肺炎大流行证明了这一点。早在2019年,英国就被列为世界上应对疫情准备最充分的国家。然而,到2020年,一旦新冠肺炎爆发,英国“毫无疑问”成为欧洲疫情最严重的国家,尤其是在超额死亡率方面。在这篇文章中,有人认为,英国的大陆邻国比英国应对得更好,因为他们有更好的家园抵御能力。这是由他们的民防组织、准军事部队和专门为应对国土紧急情况而设计的军队提供的。相比之下,英国几乎是世界上独一无二的,它既缺乏民防机构,也缺乏准军事机构,此外,它的武装部队实际上并没有在国内紧急情况下提供帮助。鉴于新冠肺炎期间突出的问题,现在是英国成立专门负责缓解国内紧急情况的机构的时候了吗?本文通过将英国的疫情应对措施与西班牙进行比较来探讨这个问题。根据所有可用数据,西班牙的表现本应比英国差。但事实并非如此。为什么?
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引用次数: 2
Automating the OODA loop in the age of intelligent machines: reaffirming the role of humans in command-and-control decision-making in the digital age 智能机器时代OODA循环的自动化:重申人类在数字时代指挥与控制决策中的作用
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-22 DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2102486
James Johnson
ABSTRACT This article argues that artificial intelligence (AI) enabled capabilities cannot effectively or reliably compliment (let alone replace) the role of humans in understanding and apprehending the strategic environment to make predictions and judgments that inform strategic decisions. Furthermore, the rapid diffusion of and growing dependency on AI technology at all levels of warfare will have strategic consequences that counterintuitively increase the importance of human involvement in these tasks. Therefore, restricting the use of AI technology to automate decision-making tasks at a tactical level will do little to contain or control the effects of this synthesis at a strategic level of warfare. The article re-visits John Boyd’s observation-orientation-decision-action metaphorical decision-making cycle (or “OODA loop”) to advance an epistemological critique of AI-enabled capabilities (especially machine learning approaches) to augment command-and-control decision-making processes. In particular, the article draws insights from Boyd’s emphasis on “orientation” as a schema to elucidate the role of human cognition (perception, emotion, and heuristics) in defense planning in a non-linear world characterized by complexity, novelty, and uncertainty. It also engages with the Clausewitzian notion of “military genius” – and its role in “mission command” – human cognition, systems, and evolution theory to consider the strategic implications of automating the OODA loop.
摘要本文认为,人工智能能力无法有效或可靠地补充(更不用说取代)人类在理解和理解战略环境以做出为战略决策提供信息的预测和判断方面的作用。此外,人工智能技术在各级战争中的快速扩散和日益依赖将产生战略后果,这将违反直觉地增加人类参与这些任务的重要性。因此,在战术层面限制使用人工智能技术来自动化决策任务,对在战争的战略层面遏制或控制这种综合的影响几乎没有作用。这篇文章重新访问了约翰·博伊德的观察导向决策行动隐喻决策循环(或“OODA循环”),以推进对人工智能能力(尤其是机器学习方法)的认识论批判,从而增强指挥和控制决策过程。特别是,文章从博伊德对“定向”的强调中汲取了见解,将其作为一种模式来阐明人类认知(感知、情绪和启发式)在以复杂性、新颖性和不确定性为特征的非线性世界中的防御规划中的作用。它还涉及克劳塞维茨的“军事天才”概念——及其在“任务指挥”中的作用——人类认知、系统和进化理论,以考虑OODA循环自动化的战略意义。
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引用次数: 11
期刊
Defence Studies
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