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Autonomous weapon systems and IHL compliance: A constrained legal optimisation problem 自主武器系统与遵守国际人道法:一个受限的法律优化问题
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0006
Tim McFarland
Abstract Arguments have been made both for and against military use of autonomous weapon systems (AWSs) on the basis of how they will help or hinder a state in meeting its international humanitarian law (IHL) obligations. Often, these arguments are made in isolation, or they fail to address all of the potential compliance concerns related to autonomous weapons. This is not ideal. It means the bearers of legal obligations must locate, assess and piece together the disparate arguments into a coherent structure if they are to know whether they can legitimately utilise a particular autonomous capability and, if so, in what circumstances. This article offers a high-level description of a conceptual framework which can be used to organise and assess legal arguments about autonomous weapons. It proposes that the task of integrating autonomous capabilities into an armed force may be viewed as a constrained optimisation problem wherein the task is to find the optimal balance between the fundamental principles of IHL while also satisfying all normative, technological and strategic/operational constraints.
基于自主武器系统将如何帮助或阻碍一国履行其国际人道法义务,支持和反对军事使用自主武器系统(AWSs)的争论一直存在。通常,这些论点是孤立地提出的,或者它们未能解决与自主武器有关的所有潜在遵守问题。这并不理想。这意味着,如果要知道自己是否可以合法地利用某种特定的自主能力,以及如果可以的话,在什么情况下,法律义务的承担者必须找到、评估并将不同的论点拼凑成一个连贯的结构。本文提供了一个概念框架的高级描述,该框架可用于组织和评估有关自主武器的法律论据。它提出将自主能力融入武装部队的任务可被视为一个约束优化问题,其中任务是在国际人道法的基本原则之间找到最佳平衡,同时满足所有规范、技术和战略/操作约束。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting deceit within a predominantly true statement using two parallel assessment methods: A pilot study 用两种平行的评估方法在一个主要真实的陈述中检测欺骗:一项初步研究
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0005
Marko Uotinen, Petteri Simola, Pentti J. Henttonen
Abstract In human intelligence, a verbal statement from a source is seldom 100% true or false, and not very often is the source a total liar or a truth teller. From this standing point, a simple dichotomy of a liar or a truth teller might not offer an adequate diagnostic value for the purposes of human intelligence. A more diagnostic approach would be to assess which parts of the predominantly truthful verbal statement are likely to be true and which parts are assessed to be doubtful. In addition, the use of two parallel methods to detect deceit should improve the diagnostic value of the results. A pilot study in laboratory conditions ( n = 8, yielding 190 assessment points) utilising an applied mock crime scenario was conducted. Correlation calculations showed that a dual-method approach slightly improved the within-statement truth accuracy, and it was achieved mainly by decreasing the number of false positives. As the truth accuracy was increased, the lie accuracy within the test group slightly decreased. The results confirmed that by applying parallel orienting response (EDA) and cognitive load (speech-related indices)-based assessment methods, it is possible to detect embedded lies successfully in an information-gathering interview setup.
在人类的智力中,来自一个来源的口头陈述很少是100%正确或错误的,而且很少是一个完全的骗子或诚实的人。从这个角度来看,说谎者和诚实者的简单二分法可能无法为人类智力的目的提供足够的诊断价值。一种更具诊断性的方法是评估主要真实的口头陈述的哪些部分可能是真实的,哪些部分被评估为可疑的。此外,采用两种平行方法检测欺骗,应能提高检测结果的诊断价值。在实验室条件下进行了一项试点研究(n = 8,产生190个评估点),利用应用模拟犯罪场景。相关计算表明,双方法方法略微提高了语句内真值的准确性,这主要是通过减少假阳性的数量来实现的。随着真相准确性的提高,试验组内谎言准确性略有下降。研究结果表明,采用平行导向反应(EDA)和基于认知负荷(语音相关指数)的评估方法,可以成功地检测出信息收集访谈设置中的嵌入式谎言。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term post traumatic growth after moral- and victim-traumas among Norwegian UN military peacekeepers: the impact of emotional distress and leadership 挪威联合国军事维持和平人员在道德和受害者创伤后的长期创伤后成长:情绪困扰和领导力的影响
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0003
Olav Kjellevold Olsen, Sigurd William Hystad, Hans Jakob Bøe, Eidhamar Are
Abstract This study investigated the relationship between traumatic experiences during peacekeeping operations in Lebanon (UNIFIL) between 1978 – 1998 and post traumatic growth (PTG), recalled and measured 17-38 years after, in a sample of 11 633 Norwegian military. Specifically, the study investigated how victim traumas (lethal danger) and moral traumas (moral failure) related to PTG, measured by the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (Cann et al., 2010). Emotional distress experienced during the traumas served as a potential mediator of this relationship, and leadership by closest superior a potential moderator of the mediation. The results showed a significant positive relationship between number of victim traumas and PTG, while number of moral traumas did not contribute to explain variance above this effect. The trauma - PTG relationship was partially mediated by emotional distress, but authentic- and laissez faire leadership did not moderate this mediation. In sum, the veterans with most traumatic experiences, as recalled 17-38 years later, had higher PTG, and emotional distress related to trauma mediated this growth. The findings indicate that traumatic experiences may represent a resource for growth and subsequent hope for recovery. Given the retrospective study-design which might have hindered accurate measurement of PTG, advice on future research approaches is included.
摘要:本研究以11 633名挪威军人为样本,调查了1978 - 1998年在黎巴嫩维和行动期间的创伤经历与17-38年后的创伤后成长(PTG)之间的关系。具体来说,该研究调查了受害者创伤(致命危险)和道德创伤(道德失败)如何与创伤后成长量表(Cann et al., 2010)相关。创伤期间经历的情绪困扰是这种关系的潜在中介,而最亲近的上级领导是这种中介的潜在调节因子。结果显示,受害者创伤数量与创伤心理状态之间存在显著的正相关关系,而道德创伤数量并不能解释这一效应的差异。创伤-焦虑焦虑关系受情绪困扰的部分调节,但真实型和自由放任型领导不调节这种调节。总之,17-38年后回忆起的创伤经历最多的退伍军人,其PTG水平更高,与创伤相关的情绪困扰介导了这种增长。研究结果表明,创伤经历可能代表着成长和随后康复的希望。考虑到回顾性研究设计可能会阻碍PTG的准确测量,对未来研究方法的建议包括在内。
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引用次数: 0
Butcher’s Bills: Engagement-level preponderance and casualties in the French Revolution Wars and Napoleonic Wars, 1792–1815 屠户的账单:1792-1815年法国大革命战争和拿破仑战争中的交战水平优势和伤亡
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0004
John Hickman
Abstract This article reports findings from an empirical investigation of the generalization captured in the aphorism that ‘god is on the side with the biggest battalions.’ Departing from the focus on major or decisive battles in previous studies, this quantitative analysis using ordered logit and ordinary least squares regression of two data sets of 945 and 823 large, medium and small engagements between the armies of France and its enemies during the Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars from 1792 to 1815 reveals that a preponderance of numbers was positively associated with victory but also higher casualties.
摘要:本文报告了对格言“上帝站在最大的阵营一边”这一概括的实证调查结果。“与以往研究中对重大战役或决定性战役的关注不同,这项定量分析使用了有序logit和普通最小二乘回归,对1792年至1815年法国大革命战争和拿破仑战争期间法国军队与其敌人之间的945和823次大型、中型和小型交战的两个数据集进行了定量分析,结果表明,数量优势与胜利呈正相关,但也与更高的伤亡呈正相关。”
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引用次数: 0
Examining the roots of turnover intentions in the Royal Norwegian Navy, the role of embeddedness, work-life conflict and predictability 考察挪威皇家海军人员更替意图的根源,嵌入性的作用,工作-生活冲突和可预测性
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0002
Morten Nordmo, Tore Nøttestad Norrøne, Kristian Nikolaisen, Daniel Svarstad
Abstract Retaining qualified personnel is a priority for armed forces, and turnover presents a serious problem. This study uses job embeddedness theory to investigate embeddedness factors, predictability and work–life conflict as predictors of turnover intentions in commissioned officers (COs) and non-commissioned officers (NCOs) in the Royal Norwegian Navy. The study posits that career prospects, community fit, organisational fit and organisational links embed personnel and are associated with a reduction in turnover intentions. In addition, the study proposes a mechanism whereby personnel who experience a predictable work schedule have better work–life balance and subsequently lower turnover intentions. Predictability in turn is hypothesised to be associated with the possibility of flexible hours. Using structural equation modelling, we find that embeddedness factors predicted turnover intentions for both personnel categories, but career prospects were the only significant embeddedness factor for NCOs. Predictability was associated with a reduction in turnover intentions via work–life conflict for both groups. In addition, flexible hours showed an effect on work–life conflict for both groups, but through different mechanisms. Overall, the results point to differential actions to reduce turnover between COs and NCOs in the armed forces and conclude with a priority list for actions to reduce turnover in each personnel group.
留住合格的人员是军队的首要任务,人员流动是一个严重的问题。本研究运用工作嵌入性理论,探讨嵌入性因素、可预见性和工作生活冲突对挪威皇家海军士官和士官离职意向的影响。该研究认为,职业前景、社区契合度、组织契合度和组织联系嵌入人员,并与离职意愿的降低有关。此外,研究还提出了一种机制,即经历可预测的工作时间表的人员具有更好的工作与生活平衡,从而降低离职意愿。可预测性反过来又被假设与灵活工作时间的可能性有关。利用结构方程模型,我们发现嵌入性因素对两类人员的离职意向都有预测作用,但职业前景是唯一显著的嵌入性因素。在两组中,可预见性与通过工作与生活冲突减少离职意图有关。此外,弹性工作时间对两组的工作-生活冲突都有影响,但通过不同的机制。总体而言,结果指出了减少武装部队co和nco之间人员流动的不同行动,并总结了减少每个人员群体人员流动的优先行动清单。
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引用次数: 0
On proxy war: A multipurpose tool for a multipolar world 代理人战争:多极世界的多用途工具
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2023-0001
Amos C. Fox
Abstract Current literature on proxy war tends to miss a set of key factors germane to the study and practice of proxy war. First, proxy wars are distinct from coalitions and alliances because proxy wars, unlike the latter, are rooted in offsetting one’s own risk by offloading it to another actor. Next, analysing proxy relationships and risk through agency theory, network theory, and theories of power illuminate five basic models of proxy relationship – coerced, exploited, transactional, cultural and contractual. These models provide a new understanding of how strategic actors can best leverage a proxy. Moreover, these models provide a basic understanding of what specific types of proxies cannot do. For example, coerced and exploited proxies cannot be counted on for complicated work, or long-duration operations. Transactional proxies, given the business agreement between the principal and proxy, can be counted on to go to the razor’s edge together. Nonetheless, task completion accelerates dyad divergence, and mission accomplishment usually results in transactional solvency. Cultural and contractual relationships are tight-bonded, facilitate complicated missions, and can operate for long periods of time. As a result, strategic actors looking to invest in proxy strategies are best served when utilising cultural or contractual proxies.
摘要当前关于代理战争的文献往往忽略了一系列与代理战争研究和实践密切相关的关键因素。首先,代理战争不同于联盟和联盟,因为代理战争与后者不同,其根源在于通过将自己的风险转嫁给另一个参与者来抵消自己的风险。其次,通过代理理论、网络理论和权力理论对代理关系和风险进行分析,阐明了代理关系的五种基本模型——强迫型、剥削型、交易型、文化型和契约型。这些模型为战略参与者如何最好地利用代理提供了新的理解。此外,这些模型提供了对特定类型的代理不能做什么的基本理解。例如,不能指望强迫和利用代理来完成复杂的工作或长时间的操作。考虑到委托人和代理人之间的业务协议,事务性代理可以指望一起走到刀锋边缘。然而,任务完成会加速二元分化,而任务完成通常会导致交易偿付能力。文化和契约关系是紧密结合的,有利于复杂的任务,并且可以长期运作。因此,寻求投资于代理策略的战略行为体在利用文化或合同代理时得到了最好的服务。
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引用次数: 1
A quantitative analysis of the impact or consequences of the US Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2006 对2006年美国海岸警卫队和海上运输法的影响或后果的定量分析
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2022-0007
D. Doss, D. McElreath, William T Rials, Don Jones, Harli Standish
Abstract This study examined whether the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2006 affected the United States (US) Coast Guard performance characteristics with respect to incident response. The periods analyzed consisted of a decade before versus a decade after implementation of the legislation. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the p-value approach (p < 0.05), six hypotheses were tested to determine whether statistically significant differences in response attributes existed during the 10 years before versus the 10 years following the passing of the legislation. Four significant hypothesis-testing outcomes represented differences in the number of incidents, incident responses, cumulative lives lost, and lives lost after notification.
摘要本研究考察了2006年海岸警卫队和海上运输法案是否影响了美国海岸警卫队在事件响应方面的表现特征。所分析的时期包括立法实施前的十年和实施后的十年。采用方差分析(ANOVA)和p值法(p < 0.05),对六个假设进行检验,以确定在立法通过前10年与立法通过后10年的反应属性是否存在统计学显著差异。四个重要的假设检验结果代表了事件数量、事件反应、累计死亡人数和通知后死亡人数的差异。
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引用次数: 0
The Eurasian security system: a preliminary framework for understanding the emerging Sino–Russian relationship 欧亚安全体系:理解新兴中俄关系的初步框架
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-10-29 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2022-0006
Juha Kukkola, M. Puranen
Abstract After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sino–Russian relations have rapidly become a hotly debated topic within the fields of strategic studies and international relations. In this article, we propose a preliminary theoretical model for analysing the Russian–Chinese relation as a complex security system. By security system, we mean a system consisting of two or more elements (states) with shared and interdependent security concerns and interests. From the shared understandings of security of the elements, the system emerges with its emergent attributes and properties. After providing its theoretical and conceptual framework based on recent ideas in complex system theories, the article narrates how the Eurasian security system began to develop after the restructuring of global and Eurasian security architectures following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the following decades, China and Russia developed mutually homogenous sets of perceived security threats and interests, and later in the post 2014-era, these interests converged to establish the Eurasian security system.
摘要俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,中俄关系迅速成为战略研究和国际关系领域讨论的热点问题。本文提出了一个初步的理论模型,将俄中关系作为一个复杂的安全体系进行分析。安全体系是指由两个或两个以上具有共同和相互依存的安全关切和利益的要素(国家)组成的体系。基于对元素安全性的共同理解,系统产生了其涌现的属性和特性。本文以复杂系统理论的最新思想为基础,提供了欧亚安全体系的理论和概念框架,并叙述了1991年苏联解体后全球和欧亚安全架构重构后欧亚安全体系是如何开始发展的。在接下来的几十年里,中俄形成了一套相互同质的安全威胁和利益感知,并在2014年后形成了欧亚安全体系。
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引用次数: 0
Interoperable, adaptable, information exchange in NATO coalition operations 北约联合行动中可互操作、适应性强、信息交换
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2022-0005
F. T. Johnsen, M. Hauge
Abstract This paper summarises our work on policy-enabled inter-network routing for mobile networks and adapting information services to available networking resources in tactical networks. The work shows promise; both the policy routing and adaptive service infrastructure were part of successful interoperability trials in the Coalition Warrior Interoperability eXercise (CWIX) in 2021. This paper highlights our findings, how our work can support interoperability in NATO, and represents an enabler for future coalition operations. Although promising, the work involves research and concept development, and so, we anticipate its timeframe for seeing actual operational use as likely 3–5 years from now, typically targeting future developments within Federated Mission Networking (FMN). In our work, we have shown that we can build a federated mobile network by using a reactive routing protocol that supports policy routing in a network overlay for use in a coalition. Further, we have shown that we can leverage network-level information at the application level, through a so-called cross-layer optimization (CLO) approach. The CLO approach leverages a well-defined format, and we found that this format promotes interoperability and can be used in a multi-national setting. Since our work is experimental, we have also identified some shortcomings for future work.
摘要本文总结了我们在移动网络中策略支持的网络间路由以及战术网络中使信息服务适应可用网络资源方面的工作。这项工作显示出希望;策略路由和自适应服务基础设施都是2021年联盟战士互操作性演习(CWIX)中成功的互操作性试验的一部分。本文强调了我们的发现,我们的工作如何支持北约的互操作性,并代表了未来联盟行动的推动者。虽然前景很好,但这项工作涉及研究和概念开发,因此,我们预计从现在开始的3-5年后,它的实际操作应用可能会出现,通常针对联邦任务网络(FMN)的未来发展。在我们的工作中,我们已经证明,我们可以通过使用响应路由协议来构建联合移动网络,该协议支持联盟中使用的网络覆盖中的策略路由。此外,我们还展示了可以通过所谓的跨层优化(CLO)方法在应用程序级别利用网络级信息。CLO方法利用了一种定义良好的格式,我们发现这种格式促进了互操作性,可以在多国环境中使用。由于我们的工作是实验性的,我们也发现了一些不足之处,以供今后的工作使用。
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引用次数: 2
Military organisations and emerging technologies – How do unmanned systems find a role in future navies? 军事组织和新兴技术——无人系统如何在未来海军中发挥作用?
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.2478/jms-2022-0004
Therese Tärnholm, Hans Liwång
Abstract Fewer qualified platforms and reduced personnel within the navy are the reality for many nations, although operational requirements might have remained the same or increased over time. At the same time, research is advancing in unmanned and autonomous systems, which have also found application in military use. Therefore, navies need to develop approaches for effective technological transformation. To fulfil this need, this study aims to identify and describe the relevant research from different disciplines and their respective relation to the design of future navies. The study commences with a literature review related to knowledge support for understanding how emerging technologies, such as maritime autonomous systems (MAS), find their place in a military organisation. The findings suggest that the armed forces should be categorised as a sociotechnical system, built of systems-of-systems that together enable capability, and that it is as a capability enforcer that the overall system should be developed. This highlights the importance of structural and organisational changes in making the best use of the technology, as well as in making the sociotechnical system as efficient as possible. Therefore, the armed forces need to be learning organisations, exercising joint planning, where there is room for knowledge sharing and flexibility within the organisation despite different hierarchical layers.
对于许多国家来说,海军中合格平台的减少和人员的减少是现实,尽管作战需求可能保持不变或随着时间的推移而增加。与此同时,无人和自主系统的研究也在推进,这些系统也在军事上得到了应用。因此,海军需要制定有效的技术改造方法。为了满足这一需求,本研究旨在识别和描述来自不同学科的相关研究及其各自与未来海军设计的关系。该研究首先回顾了与知识支持相关的文献,以了解新兴技术(如海事自主系统(MAS))如何在军事组织中找到自己的位置。研究结果表明,武装部队应该被归类为一个社会技术系统,由系统的系统组成,这些系统共同实现了能力,并且应该作为一个能力的执行者来开发整个系统。这突出了结构和组织变革在充分利用技术方面的重要性,以及在使社会技术系统尽可能高效方面的重要性。因此,武装部队需要成为学习型组织,进行联合规划,尽管层次不同,但组织内部仍有知识共享和灵活性的空间。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Slavic Military Studies
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