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Examining The Impact of Personality and Situational Factors on Decision Making Among Military Staffs 人格与情境因素对军事参谋决策的影响研究
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0193
C. Wallenius, Charlotte Bäccman, G. Larsson
Abstract Military staff performance may be inferior due to several reasons. The purpose of the present survey was to study the impact of stress reactions, personality factors, situation awareness, and maladaptive group dynamics on the quality of the decision-making in Swedish high-level military staffs. Participants were mainly captains and majors, but also lieutenant colonels and colonels took part (n = 256, 61 % response rate). A mainly self-made questionnaire was administered in two staff exercises. Maladaptive group dynamics, stress exposure, lack of situation awareness, and negative stress reactions were the strongest predictors of poor staff performance, while personality had less impact.
摘要军队工作人员绩效较差的原因有以下几点。本调查旨在研究应激反应、人格因素、情境意识和不适应群体动力学对瑞典高级军事人员决策质量的影响。参与者主要是上尉和少校,也有中校和上校参与(n = 256,回复率61%)。在两次工作人员练习中使用了一份主要是自制的调查表。不良的群体动态、压力暴露、缺乏情境意识和消极的压力反应是员工绩效差的最强预测因子,而个性的影响较小。
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引用次数: 2
An Examination of the Implementation of Risk Based Approaches in Military Operations 对军事行动中基于风险的方法实施的审查
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0189
Hans Liwång, Maria Ericson, Martin Bang
Abstract Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited. The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis. From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
今天,一些国家在军事规划中采用基于风险的方法。但是,在诸如不确定性、对平民的威胁的性质和风险等方面,对办法的局限性的讨论是有限的。这项工作的目的是在将基于风险的方法应用于军事活动时确定重要的挑战。本文讨论了基于风险的一般方法及其军事应用。从风险哲学的研究出发,提出了风险分析的5个共性质量要求。根据提出的风险分析质量要求,分析了风险分析的两个军事应用领域:军事情报和法律评估中的风险管理。从分析中可以清楚地看出,风险分析是决策分析的一个组成部分,不能在时间、空间或组织上与一般的决策过程分开。定义要分析的场景,包括时间跨度,是风险分析的中心任务,将影响风险评估的每个方面。因此,场景定义的原则必须在整个组织内进行沟通和不断更新。处理整个过程中的不确定性也很重要,特别是如果目标是建立一个有弹性的军事系统。
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引用次数: 14
Special Operations Principles and Finnish Long Range Patrols during WWII 二战期间的特种作战原则和芬兰远程巡逻
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0191
Ralf Lillbacka
Abstract The study assessed whether the six special operations principles (simplicity, security, repetition, speed, purpose, and surprise) proposed by Admiral William McRaven could predict the degree of success among Finnish long range patrols during WWII. Eighty-four missions that included deliberate contact with the enemy were considered. Bootstrapped estimates were obtained from a LISREL path model. The result offers partial support for McRaven’s model. Significant direct and indirect effects of security, purpose and surprise were demonstrated. Limitations imposed by available data, as well as the circumstance that other principles were rarely violated, may explain the absence of further significant effects. It is furthermore suggested that the principles can be divided into “decisive” (security, purpose, and surprise) where negligence has immediate detrimental consequences, and “contextual” (simplicity, repetition, and in part, speed) that are largely case-specific and may need further precision to be analytically viable. The cause for the absence of significant effects would according to this interpretation be that the principles, as they are generally defined, fail to identify contextual circumstances that are crucial for success.
摘要:本研究评估了威廉·麦克雷文海军上将提出的六项特种作战原则(简单性、安全性、重复性、速度、目的性和突然性)能否预测二战期间芬兰远程巡逻的成功程度。考虑了84项包括蓄意与敌人接触的任务。从LISREL路径模型中获得自举估计。该结果部分支持了McRaven的模型。证明了安全、目的和突袭的显著直接和间接影响。现有数据所施加的限制,以及很少违反其他原则的情况,可能解释了没有进一步重大影响的原因。进一步指出,这些原则可以分为“决定性”(安全性、目的和突然性)和“情境性”(简单性、重复性和部分速度),前者的疏忽会直接造成有害后果,后者主要针对具体案例,可能需要进一步精确才能在分析上可行。根据这种解释,没有显著效果的原因是,一般定义的原则未能确定对成功至关重要的上下文环境。
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引用次数: 3
Wargame as a combined method of qualitative and quantitative studies 兵棋作为定性和定量研究相结合的方法
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-05-08 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0187
J. Hämäläinen, Jari Sormunen, Jari Rantapelkonen, J. Nikkarila
Abstract Wargames are important methods for military planning, education and research. Qualitative models have a long tradition in wargaming for improving and practising the military skills as well as enhancing the military planning based on the experiences and understanding of the experts. Quantitative models are included in simulations and technical studies. Traditionally, the relations between the qualitative and quantitative research have been described as opposites. We shall consider both the approaches, their challenges and possibilities, and their combination for producing more exhaustive wargame and for answering to the criticism of wargame as a mainly qualitative method. Our main research question is: How to combine quantitative and qualitative approaches and methods to improve quality of results of military wargames? Our main objective is to clarify and illustrate how qualitative and quantitative methods can be combined through the wargame. We shall emphasize the importance of the model selection at the beginning as it limits and guides the form (not the content) of the obtained results. We shall illustrate a combined wargame within different steps and the modelling themes of the game. Our results and findings should be useful for improving and focusing wargames to answer given research questions.
兵棋推演是军事规划、教育和研究的重要手段。定性模型在兵棋推演中有着悠久的传统,它不仅可以提高和练习军事技能,还可以根据专家的经验和理解加强军事规划。定量模型包括在模拟和技术研究中。传统上,定性研究和定量研究之间的关系被描述为对立的关系。我们将考虑这两种方法,它们的挑战和可能性,以及它们的结合,以产生更详尽的兵棋推演,并回答兵棋推演主要是定性方法的批评。我们的主要研究问题是:如何将定量与定性的途径和方法结合起来,提高军事演习结果的质量?我们的主要目的是通过兵棋来阐明和说明如何将定性和定量方法结合起来。我们将在开始时强调模型选择的重要性,因为它限制和指导所获得结果的形式(而不是内容)。我们将在不同的步骤和游戏的建模主题中说明一个组合的战争游戏。我们的结果和发现应该有助于改进和集中军演来回答给定的研究问题。
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引用次数: 4
Narrative approach to the art of war and military studies - Narratology as military science research paradigm 战争艺术与军事研究的叙事方法——作为军事科学研究范式的叙事学
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-05-04 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0186
Jan Hanska
Abstract The purpose of this article is to initiate discussion into the role narratives could play in military studies. Narratology is an old and well-established research paradigm that first emerged as part of the linguistic turn. Yet its potential has not been depleted. It is the study of narratives or stories. There are plenty of topics not yet approached from this perspective especially in the field of military studies. The military academia needs to broaden its scope of research and allow for alternative orientations and theories to be used to address traditional dilemmas, create new research paradigms and enrich the variety of analysis. Critical security studies approach shared topics with military studies by embracing the aesthetic turn that differentiates between the representation and the represented. The argument in this article is that to produce comprehensive information on its research topics military studies would benefit from embracing them as people experience them and not focus on their ontology. The article does not offer a methodological toolbox to the reader but rather an introduction to some classics of narratology and offers a few insights how this type of approach could be used in military history, strategy, operational art or even leadership studies.
摘要本文旨在探讨叙事在军事研究中的作用。叙事学是一种古老而完善的研究范式,它最初是作为语言学转向的一部分出现的。然而,它的潜力并没有枯竭。它是对叙事或故事的研究。特别是在军事研究领域,有许多问题尚未从这一角度进行探讨。军事学术界需要拓宽其研究范围,允许不同的方向和理论用于解决传统困境,创造新的研究范式,丰富分析的多样性。批判性安全研究通过拥抱区分表征和被表征之间的美学转向,来处理与军事研究共享的主题。本文的论点是,为了产生关于其研究主题的全面信息,军事研究将受益于将它们作为人们体验它们而不是关注它们的本体论。这篇文章并没有为读者提供方法论工具箱,而是介绍了叙事学的一些经典,并提供了一些见解,说明这种方法如何应用于军事史、战略、作战艺术甚至领导力研究。
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引用次数: 5
On the journal of military studies 在军事研究杂志上
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/JMS-2016-0188
Juha Lehtonen
The first issue in volume 5 is a special issue on research methods in military science. It originates from a seminar in military science research methods, that was arranged in May 2014 by the Department of Tactics and Operational Art of the Finnish National Defence University. The conference organisers, Professor Jari Rantapelkonen and Ph.D. Juhani Hämäläinen, acted as co-editors in making this special issue. As the conference was held in Finland and its call-for-papers wer in Finnish, the participants turned out to be Finnish, too. This also explains that those three papers that were deemed to be of journal quality in the doubleblind review process and can be read from this issue, were all by Finnish authors. The papers are on narratology as a method by Jan Hanska, on wargaming by Hämäläinen, Sormunen, Rantapelkonen and Nikkarila and on focused interviews by Ulla Anttila. This issue is a special contribution to the methodology discussion in the military sciences, although due to multidisciplinary and multi-method nature of military studies, it does by no means cover completely the methodological choices available in the field.
第五卷第一期是关于军事科学研究方法的专刊。它起源于2014年5月由芬兰国防大学战术与作战艺术系安排的军事科学研究方法研讨会。会议组织者Jari Rantapelkonen教授和Juhani博士Hämäläinen共同编辑了本期特刊。由于会议在芬兰举行,论文征集用的是芬兰语,所以与会者也都是芬兰人。这也解释了这三篇在双盲评审过程中被认为是期刊质量的论文,可以从这一期中阅读,都是芬兰的作者。这些论文是关于叙事学作为一种方法的Jan Hanska,关于战争游戏的Hämäläinen, Sormunen, Rantapelkonen和Nikkarila,以及Ulla Anttila的集中采访。虽然由于军事研究的多学科和多方法性质,这一问题并没有完全涵盖该领域可用的方法选择,但它是对军事科学方法论讨论的特殊贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Non-State Actors in Cyberspace Operations 网络空间行动中的非国家行为体
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0184
J. Sigholm
Abstract The growing importance of cyberspace to modern society, and its increasing use as an arena for dispute, is becoming a national security concern for governments and armed forces globally. The special characteristics of cyberspace, such as its asymmetric nature, the lack of attribution, the low cost of entry, the legal ambiguity, and its role as an efficient medium for protest, crime, espionage and military aggression, makes it an attractive domain for nation-states as well as non-state actors in cyber conflict. This paper studies the various non-state actors who coexist in cyberspace, examines their motives and incitements, and analyzes how and when their objectives coincide with those of nation-states. Literature suggests that many nations are currently pursuing cyberwarfare capabilities, oftentimes by leveraging criminal organizations and irregular forces. Employment of such non-state actors as hacktivists, patriot hackers, and cybermilitia in state-on-state cyberspace operations has also proved to be a usable model for conducting cyberattacks. The paper concludes that cyberspace is emerging as a new tool for state power that will likely reshape future warfare. However, due to the lack of concrete cyberwarfare experience, and the limited encounters of legitimate cyberattacks, it is hard to precisely assess future effects, risks and potentials.
网络空间对现代社会的重要性日益增加,越来越多地被用作争端的舞台,正成为全球各国政府和武装部队关注的国家安全问题。网络空间的特殊特征,如其不对称性质、缺乏归属、进入成本低、法律模糊性,以及作为抗议、犯罪、间谍和军事侵略的有效媒介的作用,使其成为网络冲突中对民族国家和非国家行为体具有吸引力的领域。本文研究了在网络空间中共存的各种非国家行为体,考察了他们的动机和动机,并分析了他们的目标如何以及何时与民族国家的目标一致。文献表明,许多国家目前都在追求网络战能力,通常是通过利用犯罪组织和非正规力量。利用黑客活动分子、爱国者黑客和网络民兵等非国家行为体参与国与国之间的网络空间行动,也被证明是进行网络攻击的一种可用模式。该论文的结论是,网络空间正在成为国家权力的新工具,可能会重塑未来的战争。然而,由于缺乏具体的网络战经验,以及遭遇的合法网络攻击有限,很难准确评估未来的影响、风险和潜力。
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引用次数: 28
Declaring War: Congress, the President, and What the Constitution Does not Say by Hallett, Brien 《宣战:国会、总统和宪法没有规定的内容》,哈利特、布莱恩著
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2013.844543
Ryan C. Hendrickson
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引用次数: 0
The Romanian Battlefront in World War I by Torrey, Glenn E 《第一次世界大战中的罗马尼亚前线》作者:托里,格伦
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2013.844554
Mark L. Von Hagen
Most of the attention of historians in writing and teaching about World War I, or even the Eastern Front, has focused on the behavior and performance of the great European powers, so we know a lot about Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary, probably in descending order, much less about the Ottoman Empire, but even less about the states, armies, and societies of southeastern Europe. Serbia, among the recently independent states, is probably best known among the group, partly because Serbia’s refusal to accede to Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo was the immediate cause of the outbreak of the war, and partly because of more recent wars of Yugoslav succession that have created new audiences for the prehistory of the modern conflicts. Romania, by contrast, has suffered relative neglect, so the volume under review is a welcome contribution to understanding how the non-great powers nonetheless were able to exert much more influence on the outcome of events than is generally understood. Romania started the war in an alliance with the Central Powers, which had been renewed as recently as 1912, but declared its neutrality until August 27, 1916, when it switched sides and declared war on AustriaHungary. Despite what turned out to be quite accurate intelligence about the secret negotiations with the Entente and the military buildup, the German High Command refused to believe that Romania’s Hohenzollern King Ferdinand would betray his dynastic and ethnic ties. Like Bulgaria, which also entered the war late but chose to ally with the Central Powers, Romania’s entry into the war was motivated above all by hopes for postwar territorial gains, above all in Transylvania. Also, like Bulgaria, Romania’s independence as a sovereign state was relatively young, dating to 1881, and Bulgaria entered the war against Russia, which had helped ‘liberate’ it from the Turks in 1878. The Romanian chapter is also important in the history of the postwar peace settlement that rewarded Romania with a state twice its prewar size, but also one full of hostile minorities and embittered neighbors in Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Soviet Union, all of whom wrought their revenge on
历史学家在研究第一次世界大战,甚至东线战争的写作和教学中,大部分注意力都集中在欧洲列强的行为和表现上,所以我们对德国、俄罗斯和奥匈帝国的了解很多,可能是按降序排列的,对奥斯曼帝国的了解就少得多,对东南欧的国家、军队和社会的了解就更少了。在新近独立的国家中,塞尔维亚可能最为人所知,部分原因是在弗朗茨·费迪南德夫妇在萨拉热窝被暗杀后,塞尔维亚拒绝接受奥匈帝国的最后通牒,这是战争爆发的直接原因,部分原因是最近南斯拉夫的继承战争为现代冲突的史前史创造了新的观众。相比之下,罗马尼亚遭受了相对的忽视,因此,对于理解非大国如何能够对事件的结果施加比一般理解大得多的影响,正在审议的这本书是一个值得欢迎的贡献。罗马尼亚在战争开始时与同盟国结盟,直到1912年才重新结盟,但宣布中立,直到1916年8月27日才改变立场,向奥匈帝国宣战。尽管关于与协约国的秘密谈判和军事集结的情报被证明是相当准确的,但德国最高统帅部拒绝相信罗马尼亚的霍亨索伦国王费迪南德会背叛他的王朝和种族关系。同参战较晚但选择与同盟国结盟的保加利亚一样,罗马尼亚参战的主要动机是希望在战后获得领土,尤其是在特兰西瓦尼亚。此外,和保加利亚一样,罗马尼亚作为一个主权国家独立的时间相对较短,可追溯到1881年,保加利亚参加了对俄战争,后者在1878年帮助它从土耳其人手中“解放”了它。罗马尼亚这一章在战后和平解决的历史上也很重要,它给罗马尼亚带来了一个比战前大两倍的国家,但同时也是一个充满敌意的少数民族和怨恨的邻国,保加利亚、匈牙利和苏联,所有这些国家都对罗马尼亚进行了报复
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引用次数: 0
The American Way of Remote Air Warfare 美国的远程空战方式
Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2013-04-23 DOI: 10.1515/jms-2016-0185
J. Vicente
Abstract This analysis will assess the effects of the American way of Remote Air Warfare on the decision to wage war and the factors affecting the tactical conduct of war. This will be accomplished by determining how the Remote Air Warfare operational template influences the decision making process at the strategic level, by analyzing the political willingness to wage war, and at the tactical level, by assessing how the distance from the battlefield impacts warfighter’s proneness to use lethal force. This operational template translates the double moral implications of the increasing distance and removal of human risk from the duel. On the other hand, exposes a political maneuver’s expansion of freedom, increasing the propensity to wage war and changing the relationship between state and society. The research was guided by an inductive methodology of prospective nature, which analyses the past to inform present decisions, aiding to formulate future strategic actions. Thus, performing a critical analysis of the ideas underlying the employment of airpower, within an operational template of Remote Air Warfare, will facilitate the development of a comprehensive knowledge about its effects and a more effective adaptation to future war.
本分析将评估美国远程空战方式对战争决策的影响以及影响战争战术行为的因素。这将通过确定远程空战操作模板如何影响战略层面的决策过程,通过分析发动战争的政治意愿,以及在战术层面,通过评估与战场的距离如何影响作战人员使用致命武力的倾向来实现。这个操作模板解释了决斗中不断增加的距离和消除人类风险的双重道德含义。另一方面,暴露了一种政治策略对自由的扩张,增加了发动战争的倾向,改变了国家与社会的关系。这项研究以前瞻性的归纳方法为指导,分析过去,为现在的决定提供信息,帮助制定未来的战略行动。因此,在远程空战的作战模板中,对使用空中力量的基本思想进行批判性分析,将促进对其影响的全面了解的发展,并更有效地适应未来战争。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of Slavic Military Studies
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