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On the Interaction between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies 论货币政策与宏观审慎政策的互动关系
Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797147
Alberto Martín, Caterina Mendicino, Alejandro Van der Ghote
The Global Financial Crisis fostered the design and adoption of macroprudential policies throughout the world. This raises important questions for monetary policy. What, if any, is the relationship between monetary and macroprudential policies? In particular, how does the effectiveness of macroprudential policies (or lack thereof) influence the conduct of monetary policy? This discussion paper builds on the insights of recent theoretical and empirical research to address these questions.
全球金融危机促进了全球宏观审慎政策的设计和采用。这为货币政策提出了重要问题。如果有的话,货币政策和宏观审慎政策之间的关系是什么?特别是,宏观审慎政策的有效性(或缺乏有效性)如何影响货币政策的行为?本讨论文件建立在最近的理论和实证研究的见解,以解决这些问题。
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引用次数: 14
Bank Failures: Review and Comparison of Prediction Models 银行倒闭:预测模型的回顾与比较
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3719997
A. Citterio
The interest in banks’ bankruptcy prediction has rapidly increased especially after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The relevant consequences of bankruptcy cases have indeed highlighted the necessity for managers and regulators to develop and adopt appropriate early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is therefore to conduct a literature review of recent empirical contributions on bank’s default prediction by analyzing three underlying aspects: definition of default and financial distress, application of statistical and intelligent techniques, variables selection. The review also proposes some possible upgrades to promote future research on the topic, i.e. pointing out the potential role of non-financial information as good default predictors.
特别是在2008-2009年全球金融危机之后,对银行破产预测的兴趣迅速增加。破产案件的相关后果确实突出表明,管理人员和监管机构必须发展和采用适当的早期预警系统。因此,本文的目的是通过分析三个基本方面:违约和财务困境的定义,统计和智能技术的应用,变量选择,对最近对银行违约预测的实证贡献进行文献回顾。该综述还提出了一些可能的升级,以促进未来对该主题的研究,即指出非财务信息作为良好违约预测因子的潜在作用。
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引用次数: 5
Macroprudential Policy with Capital Buffers 具有资本缓冲的宏观审慎政策
Pub Date : 2019-02-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3779302
Josef Schroth
This paper studies optimal bank capital requirements in a model of endogenous bank funding conditions. I find that requirements should be higher during good times such that a macroprudential “buffer” is provided. However, whether banks can use buffers to maintain lending during a financial crisis depends on the capital requirement during the subsequent recovery. The reason is that a high requirement during the recovery lowers bank shareholder value during the crisis and thus creates funding-market pressure to use buffers for deleveraging rather than for maintaining lending. Therefore, buffers are useful if banks are not required to rebuild them quickly.
本文在银行内生融资条件模型中研究了银行最优资本要求问题。我发现,在经济形势好的时候,要求应该更高,以便提供宏观审慎的“缓冲”。然而,银行能否在金融危机期间利用缓冲来维持放贷,取决于随后复苏期间的资本金要求。原因在于,经济复苏期间的高要求降低了银行在危机期间的股东价值,从而造成了融资市场的压力,迫使它们使用缓冲来去杠杆化,而不是维持贷款。因此,如果不要求银行迅速重建缓冲,缓冲是有用的。
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引用次数: 15
Systemic Risk in the Financial System: Capital Shortfalls Under Brexit, the US Elections and the Italian Referendum 金融体系中的系统性风险:英国脱欧、美国大选和意大利公投下的资本短缺
Pub Date : 2018-12-11 DOI: 10.21314/JCR.2018.247
R. Engle, Cristiano Zazzara
Recent episodes of stress in the financial system have fostered a great deal of discussion regarding new supervisory and regulatory tools for financial institutions. The recent introduction of additional capital requirements for systemically important financial institutions is one example of the concrete measures that are being taken by regulators to mitigate systemic risk. In order to assist market participants in assessing and tracking systemic risk in the financial system, the Volatility Laboratory of the NYU Stern School of Business developed a quantitative indicator, called SRISK, which estimates the expected capital shortfall faced by a firm in a potential future financial crisis. Conceptually, SRISK is similar to the stress tests that are regularly applied to financial institutions; however, it is based exclusively on publicly available information (market and accounting data) and is quick and inexpensive to compute. Those firms with a high capital shortfall in a crisis – that is, when capital is low in the financial system – are the ones with the potential to extend the crisis and impact the broader economy. We use SRISK to quantify the estimated capital shortfalls of financial institutions under three relevant stress events that occurred in 2016: Brexit, the Trump election and the Italian referendum. We refer to these events collectively as BRUMPIT. Our empirical results confirm the usefulness of SRISK in assessing the sensitivity of individual financial institutions to the BRUMPIT events. This highlights the transmission channels in terms of systemic risk.
金融体系最近出现的一系列压力,引发了有关金融机构新监管工具的大量讨论。最近对具有系统重要性的金融机构提出的额外资本金要求,就是监管机构为减轻系统性风险而采取的具体措施之一。为了帮助市场参与者评估和跟踪金融体系中的系统性风险,纽约大学斯特恩商学院的波动率实验室开发了一个量化指标,称为SRISK,它可以估计公司在未来潜在的金融危机中面临的预期资本缺口。从概念上讲,SRISK类似于金融机构经常进行的压力测试;然而,它完全基于公开可用的信息(市场和会计数据),计算起来既快速又便宜。那些在危机中(即当金融体系中的资本不足时)资本缺口较大的公司,有可能延长危机并影响更广泛的经济。我们使用SRISK来量化2016年发生的三个相关压力事件:英国脱欧、特朗普当选和意大利公投下金融机构的估计资本短缺。我们将这些事件统称为BRUMPIT。我们的实证结果证实了SRISK在评估单个金融机构对BRUMPIT事件的敏感性方面的有效性。这凸显了系统性风险的传导渠道。
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引用次数: 4
Brother, Can You Spare a Dollar? Designing an Effective Framework for Foreign Currency Liquidity Assistance 兄弟,你能给我一块钱吗?设计有效的外汇流动性援助框架
Pub Date : 2017-04-20 DOI: 10.7916/D8-W0HE-GC60
Dan Awrey
The core principles of financial crisis management call upon central banks to lend freely, against good quality collateral, and at a penalty rate of interest, to solvent but illiquid banks and other financial institutions. While often taken for granted, these principles were designed for a world in which central banks have the capacity to create money denominated in the domestic currency, and where banks and other financial institutions issue deposits and other short-term liabilities denominated in the same currency. Unfortunately, this is not the world in which we live. The application of these principles is far from straightforward where financial institutions rely on short-term foreign currency liabilities as a source of financing. This is the world of the Eurodollar market. The global financial crisis vividly illustrated the potential systemic risks arising from the existence of a large Eurodollar market. Faced with a systemic foreign currency liquidity crisis, central banks struggled to secure access to the foreign currency reserves needed to provide emergency liquidity assistance to their domestic banking systems. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks established a network of swap lines with the objective of providing foreign currency liquidity assistance to the international financial system. The central bank swap lines have been hailed as one of the most important and effective policy responses to the financial crisis. However, while it may be tempting to view them as an effective prophylactic against future foreign currency liquidity crises, the current structure of the swap lines fails to establish truly credible international commitments or constrain the moral hazard problems stemming from this ambitious form of state-sponsored liquidity insurance. This paper examines the unique policy challenges posed by foreign currency liquidity problems, along with how to build a more effective framework for the provision of foreign currency liquidity assistance.
金融危机管理的核心原则要求央行以优质抵押品为抵押,以惩罚性利率向有偿付能力但流动性差的银行和其他金融机构自由放贷。尽管这些原则常常被视为理所当然,但它们是为这样一个世界而设计的:在这个世界里,央行有能力创造以本币计价的货币,银行和其他金融机构也可以发行以本币计价的存款和其他短期负债。不幸的是,这不是我们生活的世界。在金融机构依赖短期外币负债作为融资来源的地方,这些原则的应用远非直截了当。这是欧洲美元市场的世界。全球金融危机生动地说明了庞大的欧洲美元市场存在所带来的潜在系统性风险。面对系统性的外汇流动性危机,各国央行难以获得向本国银行体系提供紧急流动性援助所需的外汇储备。作为回应,美联储和其他主要中央银行建立了一个互换额度网络,目的是向国际金融体系提供外币流动性援助。央行的货币互换额度被誉为应对金融危机最重要、最有效的政策之一。然而,尽管人们可能很容易将互换额度视为防范未来外汇流动性危机的有效手段,但目前的互换额度结构未能建立真正可信的国际承诺,也未能约束这种雄心勃勃的国家支持的流动性保险形式所产生的道德风险问题。本文探讨了外币流动性问题带来的独特政策挑战,以及如何建立一个更有效的框架来提供外币流动性援助。
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引用次数: 7
The Repo Market, Collateral and Systemic Risk: In Search of Regulatory Coherence 回购市场、抵押品和系统性风险:寻求监管一致性
Pub Date : 2016-10-26 DOI: 10.4337/9781785362637.00011
Jay Cullen
The repo market is a major source of short-term secured funding for financial institutions. Because lending in these markets is collateralized – often by high-quality securities – the stability of the market was, until recently, taken for granted by market participants and regulators. However, in common with other forms of secured lending, repo markets may break down if concerns about collateral values become widespread, and cause participants to withdraw funding. Many contend that a run on the repo market was a central driver of the global financial crisis. And yet, direct reform of the repo market has not been prioritized. This chapter critically analyses post-crisis regulation of the repo market and argues that whilst direct reform of repo has indeed been lacking, other reforms aimed at curbing financial institutions’ reliance on short-term funding sources and capping bank balance sheets will limit the threat repo markets pose to systemic stability.
回购市场是金融机构短期担保资金的主要来源。由于这些市场的贷款是有抵押的——通常是高质量的证券——直到最近,市场参与者和监管机构还认为市场的稳定是理所当然的。然而,与其他形式的担保贷款一样,如果对抵押品价值的担忧变得普遍,回购市场可能会崩溃,并导致参与者撤出资金。许多人认为,回购市场上的挤兑是全球金融危机的主要驱动因素。然而,对回购市场的直接改革并未得到优先考虑。本章批判性地分析了危机后回购市场的监管,并认为尽管回购的直接改革确实缺乏,但旨在遏制金融机构对短期资金来源的依赖和限制银行资产负债表的其他改革将限制回购市场对系统稳定构成的威胁。
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引用次数: 3
Post-Contractual Duties of Financial Institutions Regarding Wealth Management Products 金融机构对理财产品的合同后责任
Pub Date : 2016-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2920444
Christopher C. Chen
Since the global financial crisis, Asian regulators have strived to curb the misselling of wealth management products by strengthening product disclosure, enhancing suitability assessments and conducting product intervention. However, much less attention has been paid to financial institutions’ post-contractual duties after selling a product. This article examines various issues that might arise during the post-contractual stage of a structured wealth management product, which may include a margin call, notification of a material adverse event and advice on redemption or settlement. By drawing on product documentation available in the public domain, disputes occurring in various jurisdictions and relevant judicial decisions, this article suggests that there could be a potential gap between contractual protection and regulatory rules in the post-contractual stage that we should further elaborate upon to clarify the rights and obligations of financial institutions and their customers.
自全球金融危机爆发以来,亚洲监管机构通过加强产品披露、加强适用性评估和进行产品干预,努力遏制理财产品的不当销售。然而,对金融机构在销售产品后的合同后义务的关注要少得多。本文探讨了结构性理财产品在合同后阶段可能出现的各种问题,其中可能包括追加保证金、重大不利事件通知以及赎回或结算建议。通过借鉴公共领域可用的产品文件、不同司法管辖区发生的争议以及相关的司法判决,本文建议在合同后阶段,合同保护和监管规则之间可能存在潜在的差距,我们应该进一步阐述这一点,以澄清金融机构及其客户的权利和义务。
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引用次数: 0
Is There an 'Interest Rate - Speculation' Relationship? Evidence from G7 in the Pre- and Post-2008 Crisis 是否存在“利率-投机”关系?来自G7在2008年危机前后的证据
Pub Date : 2016-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2832513
Kui-wai Li
The article revisits the IS-LM macroeconomic model by incorporating speculation into the investment function. The discussion is supported empirically by using data from the G7 countries to examine the different interest rate regimes in the pre- and post-2008 financial crisis. The estimation of an ‘anchor’ interest rate provides a reference rate for the G7 countries. The empirical study is extended to examine if the three quantitative easing (QE) episodes in the U.S. are growth promoting. The article concludes that the maintenance of a high and stable interest rate policy is needed for sustainable growth in the G7 countries.
本文通过将投机纳入投资函数,重新审视了IS-LM宏观经济模型。通过使用七国集团(G7)国家的数据来考察2008年金融危机前后不同的利率机制,本文的讨论得到了实证支持。对“锚定”利率的估计为七国集团提供了一个参考利率。本文将实证研究扩展到检验美国三次量化宽松(QE)是否促进了经济增长。文章的结论是,维持高而稳定的利率政策是G7国家可持续增长的必要条件。
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引用次数: 1
Should the Advanced Measurement Approach be Replaced with the Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational Risk? 操作风险的先进度量方法是否应该被标准化度量方法所取代?
Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.21314/JOP.2016.177
G. Peters, P. Shevchenko, Bertrand K. Hassani, Ariane Chapelle
Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach (SMA). This paper discusses and studies the weaknesses and pitfalls of SMA such as instability, risk insensitivity, super-additivity and the implicit relationship between SMA capital model and systemic risk in the banking sector. We also discuss the issues with closely related operational risk Capital-at-Risk (OpCar) Basel Committee proposed model which is the precursor to the SMA. In conclusion, we advocate to maintain the AMA internal model framework and suggest as an alternative a number of standardization recommendations that could be considered to unify internal modelling of operational risk. The findings and views presented in this paper have been discussed with and supported by many OpRisk practitioners and academics in Australia, Europe, UK and USA, and recently at OpRisk Europe 2016 conference in London.
最近,巴塞尔银行监管委员会提议用一种被称为标准化测量方法(SMA)的简单公式取代操作风险资本的所有方法,包括高级测量方法(AMA)。本文讨论和研究了SMA资本模型的不稳定性、风险不敏感性、超可加性等缺陷和缺陷,以及SMA资本模型与银行业系统性风险的隐含关系。我们还讨论了与操作风险密切相关的问题,风险资本(OpCar)巴塞尔委员会提出的模型是SMA的前身。总之,我们主张维持AMA内部模型框架,并提出一些标准化建议作为替代方案,可以考虑统一操作风险的内部建模。本文中提出的发现和观点得到了澳大利亚、欧洲、英国和美国的许多OpRisk从业者和学者的讨论和支持,最近在伦敦举行的2016年OpRisk欧洲会议上也得到了支持。
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引用次数: 31
How to Turn Uncertainties of Operational Risk Capital into Opportunities from a Risk Management Perspective 如何从风险管理的角度将操作风险资本的不确定性转化为机遇
Pub Date : 2016-06-27 DOI: 10.21314/JOP.2016.175
Philippe P. Meunier, A. Bakker
The supervisory guidelines for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's Advanced Measurement Approaches require the uncertainty of operational risk capital to be acknowledged by financial institutions. The estimated capital charge is inherently uncertain due to the heaviness and scarcity of operational risk losses in the tail region. Beyond the regulatory requirements, we build on this sound quantitative information to provide the bank with relevant business applications: a hybrid capital model with balanced weighting between backward-looking and forward-looking risk information; scenario bias mitigation; and managing future capital-based risk appetite limits for scenario topics. Making businesses sensitive to the sources of capital uncertainty will help reduce inherent uncertainty by identifying ways to develop scenario analysis coverage in line with the internal and external business environment assessment outcomes. Looking at capital uncertainty from a scenario topic perspective is really sensible and appealing. Transparency on capital uncertainty within the business helps to manage expectation on model noise against what remains actionable.
巴塞尔银行监管委员会《先进计量方法》的监管指引要求金融机构承认操作风险资本的不确定性。由于尾部区域操作风险损失的重性和稀缺性,估计的资本费用具有内在的不确定性。除了监管要求之外,我们还在这些可靠的定量信息的基础上为银行提供相关的业务应用:一个混合资本模型,在回顾和前瞻性风险信息之间具有平衡的权重;减轻情景偏差;管理未来基于资本的风险偏好限制情景主题。使企业对资本不确定性的来源敏感,将有助于通过确定与内外部商业环境评估结果相一致的方案分析覆盖范围的方法来减少固有的不确定性。从情景主题的角度看待资本不确定性确实是明智和有吸引力的。业务中资本不确定性的透明度有助于管理对模型噪音的期望,而不是仍然可行的。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Other Monetary Economics: International Financial Flows
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