{"title":"The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence","authors":"M. Topal","doi":"10.21773/boun.34.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.34.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42886337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Openness and Deindustrialization: A Turkish Case","authors":"Halit Yanıkkaya, Abdullah Altun, Pinar Tat","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.2.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47479585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Time-Varying Taylor Rule Estimation for Turkey with Flexible Least Square Method","authors":"Barış Soybilen, B. Eroğlu","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41530421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Debt Financing vs. Managerial Delegation: Are They Substitutes or Complements?","authors":"M. Yıldırım","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42200338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we propose a methodology to forecast residential and commercial natural gas consumption which combines natural gas demand estimation with a stochastic temperature model. We model demand and temperature processes separately and derive the distribution of natural gas consumption conditional on temperature. Natural gas consumption and local temperature processes are estimated using daily data on natural gas consumption and temperature for Istanbul, Turkey. First, using the derived conditional distribution of the natural gas consumption we obtain confidence intervals of point forecasts. Second, we forecast natural gas consumption by using temperature and consumption paths generated by Monte Carlo simulations. We evaluate the forecast performance of different model specifications by comparing the realized consumption values with the model forecasts by backtesting method. We utilize our analytical solution to establish a relationship between the traded temperature-based weather derivatives, i.e. HDD/CDD futures, and expected natural gas consumption. This relationship allows for partial hedging of the demand risk faced by the natural gas suppliers via traded weather derivatives.
{"title":"Forecasting Daily Residential Natural Gas Consumption: A Dynamic Temperature Modelling Approach","authors":"A. Goncu, Mehmet Oguz Karahan, T. Kuzubaş","doi":"10.21773/BOUN.33.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/BOUN.33.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we propose a methodology to forecast residential and commercial natural gas consumption which combines natural gas demand estimation with a stochastic temperature model. We model demand and temperature processes separately and derive the distribution of natural gas consumption conditional on temperature. Natural gas consumption and local temperature processes are estimated using daily data on natural gas consumption and temperature for Istanbul, Turkey. First, using the derived conditional distribution of the natural gas consumption we obtain confidence intervals of point forecasts. Second, we forecast natural gas consumption by using temperature and consumption paths generated by Monte Carlo simulations. We evaluate the forecast performance of different model specifications by comparing the realized consumption values with the model forecasts by backtesting method. We utilize our analytical solution to establish a relationship between the traded temperature-based weather derivatives, i.e. HDD/CDD futures, and expected natural gas consumption. This relationship allows for partial hedging of the demand risk faced by the natural gas suppliers via traded weather derivatives.","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47959358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Going to Polls or Feeding Children? An Empirical Investigation of the Voter Turnout of Turkish Women with Children at Home","authors":"Deniz Guvercin","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48008019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Discourses on Institutions “Intentions of Umbrella Organizations for Internationalization”","authors":"Cigdem Baskici, Yavuz Ercil","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.1.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.1.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44447133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Implementation via Rights Structures with Minimal State Spaces","authors":"Semih Koray, Kemal Yildiz","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46138690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Price and Quality Decisions of a Service Provider under Heterogeneous Demand","authors":"Baṣak Altan, Pelin Atahan","doi":"10.21773/boun.33.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.33.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35304,"journal":{"name":"Bogazici Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68293541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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