Pub Date : 2020-11-23DOI: 10.1108/aea-03-2020-0024
M. Gadea, Isabel Sanz-Villarroya
Purpose The purpose of this study is to focus deeply on the short term to explain the relative long-term evolution of the Argentinian economy in the long and the short term. Design/methodology/approach The study of the long-term evolution of the Argentine economy and identifying the moment in which it began to lose ground compared to other developed economies, such as Australia and Canada, constitutes the central axis of the historiography of this country. However, an additional problem presented by the Argentine economy is its high volatility. For this reason, the long term should be influenced by the short term, an issue that requires a more detailed study of the cyclical behavior and a deep analysis of the relationship between the long and the short term. Findings The results obtained point to a cyclical development that influences the long-term evolution and, therefore, explains Argentina’s convergence process with Australia and Canada. Frequent deep busts and short booms characterize the Argentine cycle, offsetting its long-term growth potential. Originality/value Although the long term has been profusely studied in Argentina, the short term has not been analyzed to the same extent, which is surprising given the extreme volatility of this economy (Prebisch, 1950). The studies performed on economic cycles have always been partial, disconnected from the long term and carried out without much technical rigor.
{"title":"Growth and business cycle in Argentina. A long-run approach, 1870–2015","authors":"M. Gadea, Isabel Sanz-Villarroya","doi":"10.1108/aea-03-2020-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-03-2020-0024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to focus deeply on the short term to explain the relative long-term evolution of the Argentinian economy in the long and the short term.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study of the long-term evolution of the Argentine economy and identifying the moment in which it began to lose ground compared to other developed economies, such as Australia and Canada, constitutes the central axis of the historiography of this country. However, an additional problem presented by the Argentine economy is its high volatility. For this reason, the long term should be influenced by the short term, an issue that requires a more detailed study of the cyclical behavior and a deep analysis of the relationship between the long and the short term.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results obtained point to a cyclical development that influences the long-term evolution and, therefore, explains Argentina’s convergence process with Australia and Canada. Frequent deep busts and short booms characterize the Argentine cycle, offsetting its long-term growth potential.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Although the long term has been profusely studied in Argentina, the short term has not been analyzed to the same extent, which is surprising given the extreme volatility of this economy (Prebisch, 1950). The studies performed on economic cycles have always been partial, disconnected from the long term and carried out without much technical rigor.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43628147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-13DOI: 10.1108/aea-12-2019-0050
J. G. Clavel, Mauro Mediavilla
Purpose This paper aims to focus on how reading for pleasure is transmitted within the family. Using data taken from the Programme for International Student Assessment test of 2009, which dealt in depth with the reading proficiency of students, the authors show that children of parents who read for pleasure are better readers. Within the extensive research and published results on reading performance, the authors focused on the transmission of parents’ reading attitudes to their children. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors have opted for an approach of “difference in differences”, applied to a population that represents all 15-year-olds from five countries (Germany, Denmark, Hungary, Italy and Portugal). To support this study, the authors chose as a response variable the difference between reading performance and maths performance of each student, taking into account five plausible values for each student. The authors have several explanatory variables, among them what we call the “treatment”, which is the parents’ enthusiasm for reading. Findings The calculated estimations clearly indicate that there is a positive effect for four out of the five countries analysed, ranging from 4 points for Italy to 6.5 points for Germany and Portugal. As for the significance of the effect, with the exception of Hungary, the result is reliable and robust. It should also be noted that the variable that indicates the existence of a reading habit by children (daily reading for pleasure) is seen as a factor that positively affects the difference between competence in reading and mathematics in four out of the five countries analysed. Originality value The results show positive effects on children whose parents read for pleasure, and this fact should be used to further encourage parents to promote their own reading time for pleasure. In view of the already quantified trend in international reports that adults are reading less, it seems crucial to involve educational authorities in reversing this phenomenon, knowing the impact that adult reading habits have on the reading competence of young people.
{"title":"The intergenerational effect of parental enthusiasm for reading","authors":"J. G. Clavel, Mauro Mediavilla","doi":"10.1108/aea-12-2019-0050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-12-2019-0050","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to focus on how reading for pleasure is transmitted within the family. Using data taken from the Programme for International Student Assessment test of 2009, which dealt in depth with the reading proficiency of students, the authors show that children of parents who read for pleasure are better readers. Within the extensive research and published results on reading performance, the authors focused on the transmission of parents’ reading attitudes to their children.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000In this study, the authors have opted for an approach of “difference in differences”, applied to a population that represents all 15-year-olds from five countries (Germany, Denmark, Hungary, Italy and Portugal). To support this study, the authors chose as a response variable the difference between reading performance and maths performance of each student, taking into account five plausible values for each student. The authors have several explanatory variables, among them what we call the “treatment”, which is the parents’ enthusiasm for reading.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The calculated estimations clearly indicate that there is a positive effect for four out of the five countries analysed, ranging from 4 points for Italy to 6.5 points for Germany and Portugal. As for the significance of the effect, with the exception of Hungary, the result is reliable and robust. It should also be noted that the variable that indicates the existence of a reading habit by children (daily reading for pleasure) is seen as a factor that positively affects the difference between competence in reading and mathematics in four out of the five countries analysed.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality value\u0000The results show positive effects on children whose parents read for pleasure, and this fact should be used to further encourage parents to promote their own reading time for pleasure. In view of the already quantified trend in international reports that adults are reading less, it seems crucial to involve educational authorities in reversing this phenomenon, knowing the impact that adult reading habits have on the reading competence of young people.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45282022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This study aims to examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment using monthly data from 13 countries in transition. Design/methodology/approach Stationarity in the unemployment rate of selected transition economies was analyzed using four different group unit root tests, namely, linear, structural breaks, non-linear and structural breaks and non-linear. Findings The empirical results show that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is valid for the majority of transition economies, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, the Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. However, the results strongly reject the null hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the Kazakhstan and the Slovak Republics. Originality/value This study revealed that, for countries in transition, advanced unit root tests exhibit greater validity when compared to standard tests
{"title":"What do unit root tests tell us about unemployment hysteresis in transition economies?","authors":"Ebru Caglayan Akay, Zamira Oskonbaeva, Hoseng Bulbul","doi":"10.1108/aea-05-2020-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-05-2020-0048","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment using monthly data from 13 countries in transition.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Stationarity in the unemployment rate of selected transition economies was analyzed using four different group unit root tests, namely, linear, structural breaks, non-linear and structural breaks and non-linear.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results show that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is valid for the majority of transition economies, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, the Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. However, the results strongly reject the null hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the Kazakhstan and the Slovak Republics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study revealed that, for countries in transition, advanced unit root tests exhibit greater validity when compared to standard tests\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-05-2020-0048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48206719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-03DOI: 10.1108/aea-04-2020-0028
I. Erauskin
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically the relationship between the labor share and income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient and by the income shares for different quintiles, during the period 1990–2015 for 62 developed and developing countries. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel data techniques to analyze empirically the relationship between the labor share and income inequality. Findings This paper finds that a lower labor share is associated with a higher Gini coefficient. A lower labor share is found to be strongly associated with a smaller income share for the lowest two quintiles and larger income share for the highest quintile and weakly associated with a smaller income share for the third and fourth quintiles. Moreover, this paper finds that the lower the quintile, the stronger the impact of the labor share on the income share of the quintile. Social implications Policymakers should take into account the evolution of the labor share. Public policies that improve labor market outcomes, such as those aimed to promote participation in the labor market and strengthen the human capital of low-income groups, seem necessary to prevent the rise in economic inequalities. Moreover, as the digital transformation of society progresses, policies to promote skill deepening may have an important role in reversing excessive inequalities. Originality/value How changes in the labor share are associated with changes in the Gini coefficient, and how this is driven by income shares for different quintiles, for a broad range of countries during the most recent period, has not been comprehensively studied using panel data techniques.
{"title":"The labor share and income inequality: some empirical evidence for the period 1990-2015","authors":"I. Erauskin","doi":"10.1108/aea-04-2020-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-04-2020-0028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically the relationship between the labor share and income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient and by the income shares for different quintiles, during the period 1990–2015 for 62 developed and developing countries.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses panel data techniques to analyze empirically the relationship between the labor share and income inequality.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper finds that a lower labor share is associated with a higher Gini coefficient. A lower labor share is found to be strongly associated with a smaller income share for the lowest two quintiles and larger income share for the highest quintile and weakly associated with a smaller income share for the third and fourth quintiles. Moreover, this paper finds that the lower the quintile, the stronger the impact of the labor share on the income share of the quintile.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000Policymakers should take into account the evolution of the labor share. Public policies that improve labor market outcomes, such as those aimed to promote participation in the labor market and strengthen the human capital of low-income groups, seem necessary to prevent the rise in economic inequalities. Moreover, as the digital transformation of society progresses, policies to promote skill deepening may have an important role in reversing excessive inequalities.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000How changes in the labor share are associated with changes in the Gini coefficient, and how this is driven by income shares for different quintiles, for a broad range of countries during the most recent period, has not been comprehensively studied using panel data techniques.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-04-2020-0028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44621482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-17DOI: 10.1108/aea-02-2020-0013
Jaime Sanaú Villarroya, Isabel Sanz-Villarroya, L. P. Y. Pérez
Purpose With the opening up of the economy since the 1959 Economic Stabilization Plan, was it the production of electricity that drove the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain or, on the contrary, was it the growth of GDP that drove the production of electricity well into the 21st century? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question. Design/methodology/approach A cointegration approach based on the studies conducted by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied, as it is suitable for short data series like those used in this paper. Findings The results of this paper allow us to conclude that electricity production boosted economic growth in Spain during the period under study, confirming the growth hypothesis. Research limitations/implications The results of this paper should be interpreted with caution, as electricity today amounts to less than a quarter of the total amount of energy used in Spain. It was not possible to incorporate other inputs to the production function (such as other energy inputs, technological or human capital), but the methodology used avoids the problems of omitted variables and of autocorrelation. Practical implications The results show that a small economy with limited resources, such as the Spanish one, is more vulnerable to energy shocks than other energy-sufficient economies. As Spain is a country with high energy dependence from abroad, the government must first ensure the electricity supply. Increased availability and access to different sources of electricity will improve the outlook for the Spanish economy. Conversely, a shortage in supply of electricity will constrain the regular pace of economic growth. Social implications Spain should investigate and explore more efficient and cost-effective sources of energy, in particular the renewable energies, as traditional energy sources will be scarce before long. Originality/value This paper differs from previous ones carried out for Spain in several aspects: it considers a broader period of time, from 1958 to 2015; the relationships between electricity production and GDP are analysed for the first time in a neo-classical production function where electricity, capital and employment are considered as separate factors; and a cointegration approach based on the studies conducted by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied, as it is suitable for short data series like those used in this paper.
自1959年经济稳定计划以来，随着经济的开放，是电力生产推动了西班牙国内生产总值(GDP)的增长，还是相反，是GDP的增长推动了21世纪的电力生产?本文的目的就是要回答这个问题。设计/方法/方法采用基于Pesaran和Shin(1999)以及Pesaran等人(2001)研究的协整方法，因为它适合于本文中使用的短数据序列。本文的结果使我们得出结论，在研究期间，电力生产促进了西班牙的经济增长，证实了增长假设。研究的局限性/意义这篇论文的结果应该谨慎解读，因为今天的电力在西班牙使用的能源总量中还不到四分之一。不可能将其他投入纳入生产函数(例如其他能源投入、技术或人力资本)，但所使用的方法避免了遗漏变量和自相关的问题。实际意义研究结果表明，资源有限的小型经济体，如西班牙，比其他能源充足的经济体更容易受到能源冲击的影响。西班牙是一个对外能源依赖度很高的国家，政府首先要保证电力供应。增加可用性和获取不同电力来源将改善西班牙经济的前景。相反，电力供应短缺将限制经济增长的正常步伐。社会影响西班牙应该调查和探索更有效和更具成本效益的能源，特别是可再生能源，因为传统能源将在不久之后稀缺。原创性/价值这篇论文与之前针对西班牙进行的研究在几个方面有所不同:它考虑的时间范围更广，从1958年到2015年;在新古典生产函数中，首次分析了电力生产与GDP之间的关系，其中电力、资本和就业被视为单独的因素;基于Pesaran and Shin(1999)和Pesaran et al.(2001)的研究，采用协整方法，因为它适合于本文使用的短数据序列。
{"title":"Economic growth or electricity, what came first in Spain after 1958?","authors":"Jaime Sanaú Villarroya, Isabel Sanz-Villarroya, L. P. Y. Pérez","doi":"10.1108/aea-02-2020-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-02-2020-0013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000With the opening up of the economy since the 1959 Economic Stabilization Plan, was it the production of electricity that drove the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain or, on the contrary, was it the growth of GDP that drove the production of electricity well into the 21st century? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A cointegration approach based on the studies conducted by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied, as it is suitable for short data series like those used in this paper.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of this paper allow us to conclude that electricity production boosted economic growth in Spain during the period under study, confirming the growth hypothesis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The results of this paper should be interpreted with caution, as electricity today amounts to less than a quarter of the total amount of energy used in Spain. It was not possible to incorporate other inputs to the production function (such as other energy inputs, technological or human capital), but the methodology used avoids the problems of omitted variables and of autocorrelation.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The results show that a small economy with limited resources, such as the Spanish one, is more vulnerable to energy shocks than other energy-sufficient economies. As Spain is a country with high energy dependence from abroad, the government must first ensure the electricity supply. Increased availability and access to different sources of electricity will improve the outlook for the Spanish economy. Conversely, a shortage in supply of electricity will constrain the regular pace of economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000Spain should investigate and explore more efficient and cost-effective sources of energy, in particular the renewable energies, as traditional energy sources will be scarce before long.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper differs from previous ones carried out for Spain in several aspects: it considers a broader period of time, from 1958 to 2015; the relationships between electricity production and GDP are analysed for the first time in a neo-classical production function where electricity, capital and employment are considered as separate factors; and a cointegration approach based on the studies conducted by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied, as it is suitable for short data series like those used in this paper.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-02-2020-0013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42019982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-08DOI: 10.1108/aea-04-2020-0026
J. Martín-Legendre, Pablo Castellanos-García, J. Sánchez-Santos
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in wealth and consumption inequality in Spain and estimate the consumption effects of housing and financial wealth. Design/methodology/approach The estimations are made using micro-data from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (2002–2014) applying cross-section, panel and interquartile techniques. Findings The findings of this paper suggest that there was an increase in wealth inequality during the period under analysis and a reduction in consumption inequality. Also, the authors find a significant positive effect of wealth on consumer expenditure. Disaggregating by asset type, the value of the main residence is the category with the highest estimated effect on consumption, whereas the remaining types of assets, although still positive and generally significant, have more modest effects on consumption. However, the estimated coefficients and their significance can change substantially depending on the phase of the economic cycle and the position of the household in the income distribution. Originality/value These results provide new empirical evidence on the effects of household wealth changes on their consumption behavior, the differences depending on the household's position in the distribution and the fluctuations of these estimated coefficients throughout a period of profound economic upheavals.
{"title":"Wealth and consumption inequality: an interquantile analysis","authors":"J. Martín-Legendre, Pablo Castellanos-García, J. Sánchez-Santos","doi":"10.1108/aea-04-2020-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-04-2020-0026","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in wealth and consumption inequality in Spain and estimate the consumption effects of housing and financial wealth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The estimations are made using micro-data from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (2002–2014) applying cross-section, panel and interquartile techniques.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings of this paper suggest that there was an increase in wealth inequality during the period under analysis and a reduction in consumption inequality. Also, the authors find a significant positive effect of wealth on consumer expenditure. Disaggregating by asset type, the value of the main residence is the category with the highest estimated effect on consumption, whereas the remaining types of assets, although still positive and generally significant, have more modest effects on consumption. However, the estimated coefficients and their significance can change substantially depending on the phase of the economic cycle and the position of the household in the income distribution.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000These results provide new empirical evidence on the effects of household wealth changes on their consumption behavior, the differences depending on the household's position in the distribution and the fluctuations of these estimated coefficients throughout a period of profound economic upheavals.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-04-2020-0026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41333005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-26DOI: 10.1108/aea-01-2020-0003
Paula Cruz-García, A. Forte, Jesús Peiró‐Palomino
Purpose There is abundant literature analyzing the determinants of banks’ profitability through its main component: the net interest margin. Some of these determinants are suggested by seminal theoretical models and subsequent expansions. Others are ad-hoc selections. Up to now, there are no studies assessing these models from a Bayesian model uncertainty perspective. This paper aims to analyze this issue for the EU-15 countries for the period 2008-2014, which mainly corresponds to the Great Recession years. Design/methodology/approach It follows a Bayesian variable selection approach to analyze, in a first step, which variables of those suggested by the literature are actually good predictors of banks’ net interest margin. In a second step, using a model selection approach, the authors select the model with the best fit. Finally, the paper provides inference and quantifies the economic impact of the variables selected as good candidates. Findings The results widely support the validity of the determinants proposed by the seminal models, with only minor discrepancies, reinforcing their capacity to explain net interest margin disparities also during the recent period of restructuring of the banking industry. Originality/value The paper is, to the best of the knowledge, the first one following a Bayesian variable selection approach in this field of the literature.
{"title":"On the drivers of profitability in the banking industry in restructuring times: a Bayesian perspective","authors":"Paula Cruz-García, A. Forte, Jesús Peiró‐Palomino","doi":"10.1108/aea-01-2020-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-01-2020-0003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000There is abundant literature analyzing the determinants of banks’ profitability through its main component: the net interest margin. Some of these determinants are suggested by seminal theoretical models and subsequent expansions. Others are ad-hoc selections. Up to now, there are no studies assessing these models from a Bayesian model uncertainty perspective. This paper aims to analyze this issue for the EU-15 countries for the period 2008-2014, which mainly corresponds to the Great Recession years.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000It follows a Bayesian variable selection approach to analyze, in a first step, which variables of those suggested by the literature are actually good predictors of banks’ net interest margin. In a second step, using a model selection approach, the authors select the model with the best fit. Finally, the paper provides inference and quantifies the economic impact of the variables selected as good candidates.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results widely support the validity of the determinants proposed by the seminal models, with only minor discrepancies, reinforcing their capacity to explain net interest margin disparities also during the recent period of restructuring of the banking industry.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The paper is, to the best of the knowledge, the first one following a Bayesian variable selection approach in this field of the literature.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-01-2020-0003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48683310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-27DOI: 10.1108/aea-07-2019-0014
B. Casal, B. Rivera, Luis Currais
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the association between drug consumption and unemployment. This paper also studies the differential association between these variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. The results are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is more vulnerable in terms of how likely they are to get and hold down a job in the labour market. Design/methodology/approach Matching methods and microdata from the Survey on Alcohol and Drugs in Spain, EDADES are used. The use of these methods on the estimates carried out prove to be particularly effective in reducing treatment-selection bias. The authors’ interest is also to analyse the differential association between the interest variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. For this purpose, the authors also use the differences-in-differences (DID) estimation method between the two periods to check if the impact of drug use on unemployment depends on the economic context. The estimations are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is less likely to attain and hold down a job in the labour market than non-drug users. Findings The results obtained in the current study are consistent with the hypothesis that drug use decreases an individual’s capacity and availability when he or she is trying to enter the labour market. In both 2007 and 2013, drug users were more likely to be unemployed, regardless of the type of drug. Differences in the probability of being unemployed intensify during an economic crisis. In light of these results, it is possible to conclude that the negative effect of drug consumption on an individual’s employability is increased during periods of economic recession. Research limitations/implications The study presented here has some limitations. Firstly, cross-sectional data were used to examine the causal relationship between consumption and employment. In this sense, the results are susceptible to bias. The unavailability of longitudinal data on the same individual made it impossible for the researchers to consider periods of abstinence, the duration of periods of consumption and how this consumption affected an individual’s productivity and his or her working situation. Another limitation is that certain relevant unemployment variables may have been omitted. Among the variables that affect an individual’s labour participation is the existence of sources of income as an alternative to market salaries. With state subsidies, income from illegal activities and money sent by family or friends, an individual may decide not to work. This problem could be mitigated if omitted variables operate in a similar way throughout both of the periods examined. Social implications Given the results obtained in this paper, the authors believe that public policy conclusions should be mainly concerned with the importance of implementing proactive employment policies, along with family support programm
{"title":"Economic crisis, unemployment and illegal drug consumption in Spain","authors":"B. Casal, B. Rivera, Luis Currais","doi":"10.1108/aea-07-2019-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-07-2019-0014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to analyse the association between drug consumption and unemployment. This paper also studies the differential association between these variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. The results are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is more vulnerable in terms of how likely they are to get and hold down a job in the labour market.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Matching methods and microdata from the Survey on Alcohol and Drugs in Spain, EDADES are used. The use of these methods on the estimates carried out prove to be particularly effective in reducing treatment-selection bias. The authors’ interest is also to analyse the differential association between the interest variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. For this purpose, the authors also use the differences-in-differences (DID) estimation method between the two periods to check if the impact of drug use on unemployment depends on the economic context. The estimations are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is less likely to attain and hold down a job in the labour market than non-drug users.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results obtained in the current study are consistent with the hypothesis that drug use decreases an individual’s capacity and availability when he or she is trying to enter the labour market. In both 2007 and 2013, drug users were more likely to be unemployed, regardless of the type of drug. Differences in the probability of being unemployed intensify during an economic crisis. In light of these results, it is possible to conclude that the negative effect of drug consumption on an individual’s employability is increased during periods of economic recession.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The study presented here has some limitations. Firstly, cross-sectional data were used to examine the causal relationship between consumption and employment. In this sense, the results are susceptible to bias. The unavailability of longitudinal data on the same individual made it impossible for the researchers to consider periods of abstinence, the duration of periods of consumption and how this consumption affected an individual’s productivity and his or her working situation. Another limitation is that certain relevant unemployment variables may have been omitted. Among the variables that affect an individual’s labour participation is the existence of sources of income as an alternative to market salaries. With state subsidies, income from illegal activities and money sent by family or friends, an individual may decide not to work. This problem could be mitigated if omitted variables operate in a similar way throughout both of the periods examined.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000Given the results obtained in this paper, the authors believe that public policy conclusions should be mainly concerned with the importance of implementing proactive employment policies, along with family support programm","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-07-2019-0014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48916060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-19DOI: 10.1108/aea-11-2019-0045
Carmen Ródenas, Mónica Martí Sempere, Ángel M. León Valle
Purpose This paper aims to focus on non-poor households that during the Great Recession experienced economic stress (ES). That is, whose economic comfort was reduced taking into account their previous living standards. The paper seeks to determine how the crisis has affected this extensive (and key) social group. Design/methodology/approach The analysis has been performed in a dynamic way. The non-poor households ES situation and its changes are studied throughout the period 2008-2016 by taking the four-year intervals provided by the longitudinal Spanish Living Conditions Survey. The authors discuss and select the circumstances to determine whether ES has occurred. To identify which variables determine the probability of suffering ES the authors use a standard logit model. Findings The main variable is the tenure status of the dwelling: property with a mortgage or rented multiply the risk of ES by up to 3.5 times. ES falls as the household’s work intensity increases. However, an improvement in the employment situation cannot be associated with a reduction in ES probability. The main socio-demographic variables behave as predicted: woman householder, grow in the number of household members and bad health increase the risk of ES, and the higher the level of education of the householder, the lower the risk. Originality/value There are very few studies regarding the people above the poverty line. Exploring and analyzing the factors determining the sensitivity of the largest part of the population to the crisis is very relevant, as the pace of the economic recovery depends largely on them.
{"title":"Economic stress in non-poor Spanish households during the Great Recession","authors":"Carmen Ródenas, Mónica Martí Sempere, Ángel M. León Valle","doi":"10.1108/aea-11-2019-0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-11-2019-0045","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to focus on non-poor households that during the Great Recession experienced economic stress (ES). That is, whose economic comfort was reduced taking into account their previous living standards. The paper seeks to determine how the crisis has affected this extensive (and key) social group.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The analysis has been performed in a dynamic way. The non-poor households ES situation and its changes are studied throughout the period 2008-2016 by taking the four-year intervals provided by the longitudinal Spanish Living Conditions Survey. The authors discuss and select the circumstances to determine whether ES has occurred. To identify which variables determine the probability of suffering ES the authors use a standard logit model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main variable is the tenure status of the dwelling: property with a mortgage or rented multiply the risk of ES by up to 3.5 times. ES falls as the household’s work intensity increases. However, an improvement in the employment situation cannot be associated with a reduction in ES probability. The main socio-demographic variables behave as predicted: woman householder, grow in the number of household members and bad health increase the risk of ES, and the higher the level of education of the householder, the lower the risk.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000There are very few studies regarding the people above the poverty line. Exploring and analyzing the factors determining the sensitivity of the largest part of the population to the crisis is very relevant, as the pace of the economic recovery depends largely on them.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-11-2019-0045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47802623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-07DOI: 10.1108/aea-09-2019-0029
J. I. Conde-Ruiz, Manu García, M. Yañez
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the functioning of a non-sanction “soft” gender quota policy structure (a simple recommendation), using the case of Spain. In the first part of the paper, the authors have reported the dismal improvement regarding the increase of female percentage presence in the companies’ boards of members. Design/methodology/approach The authors provide a detailed sectorial analysis and a classification of board members by type (executive, proprietary, independent and other external). In the second part, the authors exploit the fact that since 2013, the stock-listed companies are legally obliged to respond to a series of questions on gender diversity issues in their annual reports. Using this requirement, the authors perform an analysis using text processing techniques. The authors find that “self-plagiarism” is common in the responses – i.e. they copy responses from previous years – as well as “plagiarism” – i.e. they copy responses from other companies in previous years. Findings The insufficient progress in respect to the goals of the Law of Equality of 2007 (enacted by Spanish authorities) and the lack of interest that can be inferred from the companies’ responses included in their annual reports lead the authors to consider the necessity of changing the law on the corporate policies gender quotas in Spain. Originality/value It is the first study that realizes this type of analysis for Spain.
{"title":"Does a “soft” board gender quotas policy work?","authors":"J. I. Conde-Ruiz, Manu García, M. Yañez","doi":"10.1108/aea-09-2019-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-09-2019-0029","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to analyze the functioning of a non-sanction “soft” gender quota policy structure (a simple recommendation), using the case of Spain. In the first part of the paper, the authors have reported the dismal improvement regarding the increase of female percentage presence in the companies’ boards of members.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors provide a detailed sectorial analysis and a classification of board members by type (executive, proprietary, independent and other external). In the second part, the authors exploit the fact that since 2013, the stock-listed companies are legally obliged to respond to a series of questions on gender diversity issues in their annual reports. Using this requirement, the authors perform an analysis using text processing techniques. The authors find that “self-plagiarism” is common in the responses – i.e. they copy responses from previous years – as well as “plagiarism” – i.e. they copy responses from other companies in previous years.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The insufficient progress in respect to the goals of the Law of Equality of 2007 (enacted by Spanish authorities) and the lack of interest that can be inferred from the companies’ responses included in their annual reports lead the authors to consider the necessity of changing the law on the corporate policies gender quotas in Spain.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000It is the first study that realizes this type of analysis for Spain.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2019-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/aea-09-2019-0029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46051479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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