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Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.10.3.001
Brian R. Bruce
roBerT Dunn General Manager To open the Winter 2019 issue, Zorina, Khatri, Zhu, and Rowley. test two measures of market volatility for their potential relationship with growth in indexing assets and selected macroeconomic factors. The analysis demonstrates that macroeconomic factors have a strong correlation with and are useful predictors of market volatility; on the other hand, growth in indexing assets does not exhibit any causal relationship with market volatility. Bender, Nagori, and Tank revisit the long-documented index effect. Their findings show that the index effect is present in the global indices, particularly the MSCI World Small Cap and MSCI Emerging Markets Indices. Security characteristics matter as well, as the index effect is stronger for larger securities (relative to their index). They also find that the index effect appears to hold further ahead, for instance a month before the index rebalance date. Next, Esakia, Goltz, Luyten, and Sibbe evaluate whether the size factor still has its place in multi-factor portfolios. They suggest that the size factor improves model fit, delivers a significant positive premium in the presence of other factors, and contributes positively to the performance of multi-factor portfolios. Additionally, omitting the size factor has substantial cost to investors, which often exceeds that of omitting other popular factors. Crouse evaluates monthly leveraged investment products and shows that they improve returns because markets are less volatile on a monthly timescale, but they remain problematic as buy-and-hold investments due to the risks of large drawdowns and catastrophic losses. He characterizes these risks through higher-order moments and identifies attributes of LIPs to mitigate these risks to benefit both LIP investors and LIP sponsors. Ge studies the use of low-volatility assets for the purpose of retirement planning and the choice of ideal glidepaths. The article concludes that when equipped with proper low-volatility assets and carefully chosen glidepaths, retirement plan managers may both improve the odds that their plans succeed and increase the expected final wealth levels. To complete this issue, Malladi evaluates performance of three children-oriented indices and finds that the KIDS indices consistently outperformed the traditional S&P 500 market index in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The author suggests that these indices can be used in advancing financial literacy in high schools and among parents since they are easily understood due to their familiarity with composition and construction methods. As always, we welcome your submissions. Please encourage those you know who have papers or have made good presentations on indexing, ETFs, mutual funds, or related subjects to submit them for consideration. We value your comments and suggestions, so please email us at journals@investmentresearch.org.
roBerT Dunn总经理Zorina、Khatri、Zhu和Rowley为2019年冬季杂志揭幕。测试两种市场波动性指标与指数化资产增长和选定宏观经济因素的潜在关系。分析表明,宏观经济因素与市场波动具有很强的相关性,是市场波动的有用预测因素;另一方面,指数化资产的增长与市场波动没有任何因果关系。Bender、Nagori和Tank重新审视了长期记录的指数效应。他们的研究结果表明,指数效应存在于全球指数中,特别是MSCI世界小盘股指数和MSCI新兴市场指数。证券特征也很重要,因为指数效应对较大的证券(相对于其指数)更强。他们还发现,指数效应似乎进一步保持,例如在指数重新平衡日期前一个月。接下来,Esakia、Goltz、Luyten和Sibbe评估规模因素是否在多因素投资组合中仍有一席之地。他们认为,规模因素提高了模型拟合度,在存在其他因素的情况下提供了显著的正溢价,并对多因素投资组合的表现做出了积极贡献。此外,省略规模因素给投资者带来了巨大的成本,这往往超过了省略其他流行因素的成本。Crouse评估了每月的杠杆投资产品,并表明它们提高了回报,因为市场在每月的时间尺度上波动较小,但由于存在大量提款和灾难性损失的风险,它们仍然是买入和持有投资的问题。他通过高阶矩来描述这些风险,并确定LIP的属性,以减轻这些风险,从而使LIP投资者和LIP赞助商都受益。通用电气研究了低波动性资产的使用,用于退休计划和理想滑行道的选择。文章的结论是,当配备了适当的低波动性资产和精心选择的滑行道时,退休计划经理既可以提高计划成功的几率,也可以提高预期的最终财富水平。为了完成这一问题,Malladi评估了三个以儿童为导向的指数的表现,发现KIDS指数在绝对值和风险调整值方面一直优于传统的标准普尔500指数。作者认为,这些指数可以用于提高高中和家长的金融素养,因为他们熟悉组成和构建方法,很容易理解。一如既往,我们欢迎您提交意见。请鼓励那些你认识的在索引、ETF、共同基金或相关主题上有论文或做过良好演讲的人提交论文供考虑。我们重视您的意见和建议,请发送电子邮件至journals@investmentresearch.org.
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引用次数: 0
Size Factor in Multifactor Portfolios: Does the Size Factor Still Have Its Place in Multifactor Portfolios? 多因素投资组合中的规模因素:规模因素在多因素投资中还有一席之地吗?
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.1.078
Mikheil Esakia, Felix Goltz, B. Luyten, Marcel Sibbe
The finance literature has established a size effect: stocks with small market capitalization outperform larger stocks over the long term. The size factor is included in asset-pricing models because of its explanatory power for cross-sectional differences in equity returns. However, recent studies recommend removing size from the factor menu, given its relatively weak performance. Instead of looking at the stand-alone performance, we account for cross-factor correlation to assess the impact of excluding the size factor. We consider three tests. First, we measure the impact on model fit of asset-pricing models. Second, we assess whether the size premium remains intact when accounting for implicit exposures to other factors. Third, we evaluate the impact of the size factor on the performance of optimal multifactor portfolios. Our results suggest that the size factor improves model fit, delivers a significant positive premium in the presence of other factors, and contributes positively to the performance of multifactor portfolios. Omitting the size factor has substantial cost to investors, which often exceeds that of omitting other popular factors. TOPICS: Analysis of individual factors/risk premia, factor-based models, style investing Key Findings • The size factor carries a significant premium after adjusting for implicit exposure to other factors. • Optimal factor portfolios allocate to the size factor even if the return assumption is extremely conservative. • The size factor improves diversification due to its low correlation with other factors and different exposure to macroeconomic conditions.
金融文献已经确立了规模效应:从长期来看,市值小的股票比市值大的股票表现要好。规模因素之所以被纳入资产定价模型,是因为它对股权收益的横截面差异具有解释力。然而,最近的研究建议从因素菜单中删除大小,因为它的性能相对较弱。我们没有考虑单独的性能,而是考虑了交叉因素相关性,以评估排除大小因素的影响。我们考虑三个测试。首先,我们衡量了资产定价模型对模型拟合的影响。其次,我们评估在考虑其他因素的隐性风险敞口时,规模溢价是否保持不变。第三,我们评估了规模因素对最优多因素投资组合绩效的影响。我们的研究结果表明,规模因素改善了模型拟合,在其他因素存在的情况下提供了显著的正溢价,并对多因素投资组合的绩效做出了积极贡献。忽略规模因素会给投资者带来巨大的成本,往往超过忽略其他流行因素所带来的成本。主题:个体因素/风险溢价分析,基于因素的模型,风格投资主要发现•在调整了其他因素的隐性风险敞口后,规模因素具有显著的溢价。•最优因子投资组合分配到规模因子,即使回报假设是非常保守的。•由于规模因素与其他因素和不同的宏观经济条件的相关性较低,因此可以改善多元化。
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引用次数: 2
With Greater Uncertainty Comes Greater Volatility 不确定性越大,波动性越大
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.1.077
Inna Zorina, Jamie Khatri, Carol Zhu, James J. Rowley
Some academics and market participants argue that the growth of indexing causes market volatility. However, while the percentage of assets in indexed strategies has grown over the past twenty-five years, market volatility has risen and fallen in a somewhat random pattern, peaking around economic and financial crises. In this article, we test two measures of market volatility for their potential relationship with growth in indexing assets and selected macroeconomic factors. Our analysis demonstrates that macroeconomic factors have a strong correlation with and are useful predictors of market volatility; on the other hand, growth in indexing assets does not exhibit any causal relationship with market volatility. TOPIC: Volatility measures Key Findings • Macroeconomic factors and market volatility have a strong positive correlation while correlation between market volatility and growth of indexing is negative and relatively small in absolute terms. • Granger causality tests suggest that macroeconomic factors do have a causal relationship with and are useful predictors of market volatility. Growth of indexing, however, does not have such a relationship and is not a useful predictor of market volatility. • Macroeconomic factors such as economic policy uncertainty—not the growth of indexing assets—are responsible for elevated market volatility.
一些学者和市场参与者辩称,指数化指数的增长导致了市场波动。然而,尽管指数化策略的资产比例在过去25年里有所增长,但市场波动性的上升和下降在某种程度上是随机的,在经济和金融危机期间达到顶峰。在本文中,我们测试了市场波动的两种衡量标准,以确定它们与指数资产增长和选定的宏观经济因素之间的潜在关系。我们的分析表明,宏观经济因素与市场波动有很强的相关性,并且是有用的预测因素;另一方面,指数资产的增长与市场波动没有任何因果关系。宏观经济因素与市场波动具有很强的正相关关系,而市场波动与指数增长之间的相关性为负且绝对值相对较小。•格兰杰因果检验表明,宏观经济因素确实与市场波动存在因果关系,并且是市场波动的有用预测因素。然而,指数的增长没有这种关系,也不是市场波动的有用预测指标。•宏观经济因素,如经济政策的不确定性,而不是指数资产的增长,是市场波动加剧的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Glide Path Selection for Low-Volatility Assets 低波动性资产的最优下滑路径选择
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.1.073
Weili Ge
Target-date funds (TDFs) have become a popular choice for retirement plans, and the concept of a glide path is essential for TDFs. One of the key assumption behind glide paths is that the main component of a retirement plan should be growth assets invested in the overall equity market—for example, the S&P 500 Index. Researchers have recently challenged this assumption and argued for using smart beta factors for retirement purposes. Among them, the factor of low volatility may be uniquely suitable for retirement investing. This article studies the use of low-volatility assets for the purpose of retirement planning and the choice of ideal glide paths. This study is agnostic about the means by which the low-volatility risk/return profile is achieved and analyzes four series with diminished volatility constructed with different methodologies. The article concludes that low-volatility assets may indeed help retirement investors achieve their objectives, though such investors must choose ideal glide paths carefully to suit the selected low-volatility series. When equipped with proper low-volatility assets and carefully chosen glide paths, retirement plan managers may both improve the odds that their plans succeed and increase the expected final wealth levels. TOPICS: Mutual fund performance, retirement, other real assets, wealth management Key Findings • Both historical and de novo Monte-Carlo simulations confirm that low-volatility assets can increase the certainty of achieving investing objectives for retirement plans. • The three tested glidepath choices, hockey stick, curved, and straight line, have similar investment outcomes. • Investors with low-volatility assets may use more aggressive glidepaths to not only reduce failure rates but also increase expected final wealth levels.
目标日期基金(TDF)已成为退休计划的热门选择,下滑路径的概念对TDF至关重要。下滑路径背后的一个关键假设是,退休计划的主要组成部分应该是投资于整个股票市场的成长性资产,例如标准普尔500指数。研究人员最近对这一假设提出了质疑,并主张将智能贝塔系数用于退休目的。其中,低波动性因素可能是唯一适合退休投资的因素。本文研究了低波动性资产用于退休计划和理想下滑路径的选择。本研究不知道实现低波动性风险/回报率的方法,并分析了用不同方法构建的四个波动性降低的系列。文章的结论是,低波动性资产确实可以帮助退休投资者实现他们的目标,尽管这些投资者必须谨慎选择理想的下滑路径,以适应所选的低波动性系列。当配备了适当的低波动性资产和精心选择的下滑路径时,退休计划经理既可以提高计划成功的几率,也可以提高预期的最终财富水平。主题:共同基金业绩、退休、其他实物资产、财富管理关键发现•历史和新蒙特卡洛模拟都证实,低波动性资产可以增加实现退休计划投资目标的确定性。•经过测试的三种滑行道选择,曲棍球棒、曲线和直线,具有相似的投资结果。•拥有低波动性资产的投资者可能会使用更积极的滑行道,不仅可以降低失败率,还可以提高预期的最终财富水平。
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引用次数: 0
Factor Investing in Emerging Market Credits 新兴市场信贷要素投资
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3457127
Lennart Dekker, P. Houweling, Frederik Muskens
We examine factors in a novel dataset on the cross-section of emerging market hard currency corporate bonds. We find that the size, low-risk, value, and momentum factors predict future excess returns. Single-factor and multi-factor portfolios obtain economically and statistically significant premiums. Further, alphas remain significant after controlling for exposures to developed market credit factors. The factor portfolios benefit from bottom-up allocations to countries, sectors, ratings, and maturity segments, as well as from bond selection within these segments. Higher risk-adjusted returns of factor portfolios also can be found within liquid subsamples of the market. TOPICS: Fixed income and structured finance, emerging markets, analysis of individual factors/risk premia, portfolio construction Key Findings ▪ We examine factors in the cross-section of emerging market hard currency corporate bonds and find that the size, value, momentum, and low-risk factors predict future excess returns. ▪ Factor portfolios yield significant alphas in the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and a multi-factor portfolio that allocates equally to the four factors shows even stronger results, due to the low pairwise correlations among the individual factors. ▪ Alphas remain significant versus developed market credit factors, and the results hold within countries, sectors, ratings, maturities, and liquid subsamples.
我们在一个关于新兴市场硬通货公司债券横截面的新数据集中研究了因素。我们发现,规模、低风险、价值和动量因素可以预测未来的超额收益。单因素和多因素投资组合获得了经济上和统计上显著的溢价。此外,在控制了发达市场信贷因素的风险敞口后,阿尔法仍然很重要。要素组合受益于自下而上对国家、部门、评级和到期日细分市场的分配,以及这些细分市场中的债券选择。在市场的流动性子样本中也可以发现因子投资组合的较高风险调整回报率。主题:固定收益和结构性金融、新兴市场、个别因素/风险溢价分析、投资组合构建关键发现▪ 我们考察了新兴市场硬通货公司债券的横截面因素,发现规模、价值、动量和低风险因素预测了未来的超额收益。▪ 在资本资产定价模型中,因子投资组合产生了显著的阿尔法,而由于单个因子之间的成对相关性较低,将四个因子平均分配的多因子投资组合显示出更强的结果。▪ 与发达市场信贷因素相比,阿尔法仍然很重要,结果在国家、行业、评级、到期日和流动性子样本中都适用。
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引用次数: 5
Leveraged Investment Products: Monthly Rebalancing Boosts Performance, but Tail Risk Looms 杠杆投资产品:月度再平衡提振业绩,但尾部风险凸显
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.1.074
M. Crouse
Volatility reduces any investment’s compound rate of return in what is termed volatility drag, a drawback of leveraged investment products (LIPs). In recent years “Version 2.0” LIPs that reset leverage monthly (monthly LIPs) have been created to lessen the impact of drag. We show that monthly LIPs improve returns because markets are less volatile on a monthly timescale. Nevertheless, monthly LIPs remain problematic as buy-and-hold investments because of the risks of large drawdowns and catastrophic losses. We characterize these risks through higher-order moments and identify attributes of LIPs to mitigate these risks to benefit both LIP investors and LIP sponsors. TOPICS: Exchange-traded funds and applications, volatility measures, performance measurement Key Findings • Leveraged investment products (LIPs) that rebalance leverage monthly provide higher returns than the standard LIPs that rebalance daily. Monthly leverage rebalancing reduces volatility drag because markets exhibit lower realized volatility on a monthly timescale. • Monthly LIPs remain problematic as buy-and-hold investments because of the risks of large drawdowns, excess leverage, and catastrophic losses—risks that are captured not by standard mean-variance and simulation analyses but by our model through higher-order moments. • Buy-and-hold investors should focus on monthly LIPs with broad diversification, low volatility, and intramonth leverage rebalancing that avoids outright liquidation in times of market stress. LIP sponsors should emphasize these same qualities in designing their investment products.
波动性降低了任何投资的复合回报率,即所谓的波动性拖累,这是杠杆投资产品(LIP)的一个缺点。近年来,为了减少阻力的影响,创建了每月重置杠杆率的“2.0版”LIP(每月LIP)。我们发现,每月LIP可以提高回报,因为市场在每月的时间尺度上波动较小。尽管如此,由于存在大额提款和灾难性损失的风险,作为买入和持有投资,每月LIP仍然存在问题。我们通过高阶矩来描述这些风险,并确定LIP的属性,以减轻这些风险,从而使LIP投资者和LIP赞助商都受益。主题:交易所交易基金和应用程序、波动性指标、绩效衡量关键发现•每月重新平衡杠杆的杠杆投资产品(LIP)比每天重新平衡的标准LIP提供更高的回报。月度杠杆再平衡减少了波动阻力,因为市场在月度时间尺度上表现出较低的已实现波动性。•月度LIP作为买入和持有投资仍然存在问题,因为存在大量提款、过度杠杆和灾难性损失的风险——这些风险不是通过标准均值方差和模拟分析捕捉到的,而是通过我们的模型通过高阶矩捕捉到的。•买入和持有投资者应专注于具有广泛多元化、低波动性和月内杠杆再平衡的月度LIP,以避免在市场压力时期彻底清算。LIP赞助商在设计投资产品时应强调这些相同的品质。
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引用次数: 4
Focused Value 集中值
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.10.2.063
Deepika Sharma, Muling Si, Josephine M. Smith
Deep value strategies hold concentrated stock portfolios that trade at significant discounts to their intrinsic value. Such stocks tend to have significant risks: stocks with high stock-specific volatilities may have transitory low price movements; stock prices may be low because of recent negative price trends; and stocks’ earnings quality may be poor giving rise to their low valuations. In addition, the risk of value traps—that low prices may remain low for a long time—is exacerbated with deep value strategies. The authors develop a systematic deep value strategy that is designed to combine the concept of deep value investing while mitigating these risks. Using hypothetical backtested data, the deep value strategy has exhibited attractive risk-adjusted returns, including offering diversification to traditional value strategies. TOPICS: Analysis of individual factors/risk premia, factor-based models, style investing
深度价值策略持有集中的股票投资组合,这些投资组合的交易价格比其内在价值低很多。这类股票往往具有重大风险:特定股票波动率高的股票可能会出现短暂的低价波动;股票价格可能较低,因为最近的价格呈负趋势;股票的盈利质量可能很差,从而导致其估值较低。此外,深度价值策略加剧了价值陷阱的风险,即低价可能长期保持低位。作者开发了一种系统的深度价值战略,旨在结合深度价值投资的概念,同时降低这些风险。使用假设的回溯测试数据,深度价值策略显示出有吸引力的风险调整回报,包括为传统价值策略提供多样化。主题:个人因素/风险溢价分析、基于因素的模型、风格投资
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引用次数: 1
The Need for Speed: Does High-Frequency Trading Make or Break Equity Markets? 对速度的需求:高频交易是股票市场的成就还是毁灭?
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.10.2.006
Ramu Thiagarajan, Richard F. Lacaille, Hanbin Im, Jingyan Wang
Advances in technology and introduction of new regulations have transformed the equity market over last few decades, giving rise to a new breed of trading—high-frequency trading (HFT). This article investigates transformations that have shaped today’s equity trading ecology in detail with a particular focus on HFT. HFT accounts for an increasingly significant share of equity trading volumes, and is associated with lower transaction costs, greater liquidity, improved price discovery, and overall market efficiency. At times of increasing order toxicity, however, HFTs may withdraw liquidity due to higher probability of adverse selection. In this new era of equity trading, further research on a complete ecosystem of liquidity provision that ensures full provision of liquidity even during stressed periods is much needed. TOPICS: Fundamental equity analysis, accounting and ratio analysis, technical analysis
在过去的几十年里,技术的进步和新法规的引入改变了股票市场,催生了一种新的交易方式——高频交易(HFT)。本文详细研究了塑造当今股票交易生态的变革,并特别关注高频交易。高频交易在股票交易量中所占的份额越来越大,它与更低的交易成本、更大的流动性、更好的价格发现和整体市场效率有关。然而,在订单毒性增加的时候,高频交易者可能由于逆向选择的可能性更高而撤回流动性。在这个股票交易的新时代,进一步研究一个完整的流动性供应生态系统,以确保即使在压力时期也能充分提供流动性,这是非常必要的。主题:基本股票分析,会计和比率分析,技术分析
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引用次数: 2
Editor’s Letter 编者的信
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.10.2.001
Brian R. Bruce
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引用次数: 0
Consistent ESG through ESG Benchmarks 通过ESG基准实现一致的ESG
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-27 DOI: 10.3905/jii.2019.1.072
G. Giese, Linda-Eling Lee, D. Melas, Z. Nagy, Laura Nishikawa
There has been a wide range of research in academia and the asset management industry about the financial benefits of ESG investing. However, the equally important question about how to achieve consistency when integrating ESG and what methodologies to use has not received the same level of attention. As a result, ESG integration is often applied inconsistently and incompletely across portfolios. The authors provide a framework for the integration of ESG into benchmarks at various strategic levels—from the top policy benchmark level to the performance benchmark of individual allocations. In addition, they highlight the different investment objectives that asset owners may pursue when integrating ESG and how they can reflect these in their choice of ESG benchmarks. They find that integrating ESG into benchmarks makes sense as a framework to achieve consistency because benchmarks are not only used at different strategic levels but also across all areas of asset management—index-based, factor-based, and active management—to define the underlying investable universe and to provide a yardstick for performance. TOPICS: ESG investing, analysis of individual factors/risk premia, portfolio construction, portfolio management/multi-asset allocation
学术界和资产管理行业对ESG投资的财务效益进行了广泛的研究。然而,同样重要的问题是,在整合ESG时如何实现一致性,以及使用什么方法,却没有得到同等程度的关注。因此,ESG整合在投资组合中的应用往往不一致且不完整。作者为将ESG整合到各个战略层面的基准中提供了一个框架,从最高政策基准层面到个人配置的绩效基准。此外,他们强调了资产所有者在整合ESG时可能追求的不同投资目标,以及他们如何在选择ESG基准时反映这些目标。他们发现,将ESG整合到基准中作为实现一致性的框架是有意义的,因为基准不仅在不同的战略层面使用,而且在资产管理的所有领域——基于指数、基于因素和主动管理——都使用,以定义潜在的可投资领域,并为业绩提供衡量标准。主题:ESG投资、单个因素分析/风险溢价、投资组合构建、投资组合管理/多资产配置
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Index Investing
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