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ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics (Topic)最新文献

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Kidnap and Ransom Insurance: A Strategically Useful, Often Undiscussed, Marketplace Tool for International Operations 绑架和赎金保险:一个战略上有用的,经常未被讨论的,国际业务的市场工具
P. Brockett, L. Golden, Stephan Zaparolli, Jack M. Lum
With kidnaping rates rising, the disruptive forces of kidnaping threaten the stability and success of corporate investment projects and put stress on appropriate corporate governance response methodologies. While kidnaping targets vary considerably among countries where it frequently occurs, most often the goal of kidnapers is money from ransom payments. Financial consequences of a kidnap ransom payment can be severe for companies, and psychological damage can be lasting to employees and their families. Given the increasingly global nature of business and increasing expansion into less politically and legally stable emerging markets, kidnap, ransom, and extortion pose a problem for management of corporations wishing to take advantage of emerging market opportunities. Kidnap and Ransom (K&R) Insurance is a risk control technique used by about 75% of Fortune 500 companies, nongovernmental organizations, and an increasing percentage of small to medium sized companies. It is a bundled package policy that includes the purchase of an insurance policy to indemnify the company for the costs of kidnap, ransom, and extortion. Such policies can also provide protective consulting beforehand, provide crisis response and negotiation assistance, as well as psychological support services after the fact. In this paper, we describe the K&R policy, its history, other nonfinancial corporate benefits provided by K&R policies, and discuss its use by corporate managers for the benefit of corporate, financial, and personnel stability. It can also be used in course on managing international risk.
随着绑架率的上升,绑架的破坏性力量威胁到企业投资项目的稳定性和成功,并强调了适当的公司治理应对方法。虽然绑架的目标在不同的国家有很大的不同,但绑架者最常见的目标是支付赎金。绑架赎金支付对公司的经济后果可能是严重的,对员工及其家人的心理伤害可能是持久的。鉴于日益全球化的商业性质和日益扩张到政治和法律不太稳定的新兴市场,绑架,勒索和勒索构成了希望利用新兴市场机会的公司的管理问题。绑架和赎金保险是一种风险控制技术,约75%的财富500强企业、非政府组织以及越来越多的中小型企业都在使用这种保险。这是一种捆绑的一揽子政策,包括购买一份保险,以赔偿公司的绑架、赎金和勒索费用。这些政策还可以提供事前的保护性咨询,提供危机应对和谈判协助,以及事后的心理支持服务。在本文中,我们描述了K&R政策,它的历史,K&R政策提供的其他非金融企业利益,并讨论了企业管理者为企业、财务和人员稳定的利益使用K&R政策。它也可以用于管理国际风险的课程。
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引用次数: 3
Regret in Health Insurance Post‐Purchase Behavior 购买健康保险后的后悔行为
P. Born, E. Sirmans
Unlike other forms of insurance, individuals with health insurance generally expect to make claims through the policy period. Selecting an appropriate level of cost‐sharing is difficult and individuals may, ex‐post, regret the choice of a less‐than‐suitable coverage amount. Using a national health insurance survey of private market consumers from 2013 to 2017, we evaluate the potential for post‐purchase regret in the health plan purchasing decision. We employ an ordered logistic model and find that consumers whose plan choices were likely financially dominated by a foregone alternative are significantly more likely to express regret through reporting significantly lower likelihood of renewal, even when controlling for confounding considerations including affordability, self‐assessed risk, and satisfaction with the plan.
与其他形式的保险不同,拥有健康保险的个人通常期望在保单期间提出索赔。选择一个合适的费用分摊水平是困难的,个人可能会后悔选择了一个比合适的保险金额更少的金额。利用2013年至2017年对全国私人市场消费者的健康保险调查,我们评估了购买后后悔在健康计划购买决策中的可能性。我们采用了一个有序的逻辑模型,发现那些计划选择可能在财务上被先前的替代方案所主导的消费者,即使在控制混杂因素(包括负担能力、自我评估风险和计划满意度)时,也更有可能通过报告显着降低的续订可能性来表达遗憾。
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引用次数: 3
A Conceptual Model for Pricing Health and Life Insurance Using Wearable Technology 基于可穿戴技术的健康和人寿保险定价概念模型
Michael V. McCrea, M. Farrell
A health risk score was created to investigate the possibility of using data provided by wearable technology to help predict overall health and mortality, with the ultimate goal of using this score to enhance the pricing of health or life insurance. Subjects were categorized into low‐, increased‐, and high‐risk groups, and after results were adjusted for age and sex, Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed a high level of significance when predicting mortality. High‐risk subjects were shown to have a hazard ratio of 2.1 relative to those in the low‐risk group, which can be interpreted as an equivalent increase in age of 7.8 years. Our findings help to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of potential new rating factors, measured via wearables, that could feasibly be incorporated into actuarial insurance pricing models. The model also provides an initial step for insurers to begin to consider the incorporation of continuous wearable data into current risk models. With this in mind, an emphasis is placed on the limitations of the study in order to highlight the areas that must be addressed before incorporating aspects of this model within current pricing models.
创建健康风险评分是为了调查使用可穿戴技术提供的数据来帮助预测整体健康和死亡率的可能性,最终目标是使用该评分来提高健康或人寿保险的定价。受试者被分为低危组、高危组和高危组,在对结果进行年龄和性别校正后,Cox比例风险分析显示在预测死亡率时具有高度显著性。研究显示,高风险受试者相对于低风险组的风险比为2.1,这可以解释为年龄增加了7.8岁。我们的研究结果有助于证明,通过可穿戴设备测量的潜在新评级因素的预测能力,可以将其纳入保险精算定价模型。该模型还为保险公司开始考虑将连续可穿戴数据纳入当前风险模型提供了初步步骤。考虑到这一点,重点放在研究的局限性上,以突出在将该模型的各个方面纳入当前定价模型之前必须解决的领域。
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引用次数: 16
Risk Management Roles of the Public and Private Sector 公共和私营部门的风险管理角色
C. Kousky, H. Kunreuther
Insurance is an essential component of household and community resilience. It protects insureds financially against disaster losses, can encourage investments in cost†effective mitigation measures through premium reductions, and facilitates the rebuilding of property and long†term recovery. Private insurers face challenges in providing full protection against disasters. This has led governments around the world to create a variety of public insurance entities, often designed as public†private partnerships. At a November 2016 workshop, “Improving Disaster Financing: Evaluating Policy Interventions in Disaster Insurance Markets,†participants evaluated disaster insurance programs for flood, earthquake, and terrorism losses. This article synthesizes six papers and findings from the workshop and suggests ways to improve public†private partnerships for disaster financing in three interrelated areas: (1) risk communication, (2) risk reduction, and (3) risk transfer. It concludes with a proposal for a comprehensive insurance program that could harness the benefits of both the public and private sectors.
保险是家庭和社区恢复力的重要组成部分。它在经济上保护被保险人免受灾害损失,通过降低保费鼓励投资于成本有效的减灾措施,并促进财产重建和长期恢复。私营保险公司在提供全面的灾害保护方面面临挑战。这导致世界各国政府创建了各种各样的公共保险实体,通常被设计为公私合作伙伴关系。在2016年11月召开的题为“€œImproving灾害融资:评估灾害保险市场中的政策干预措施”的研讨会上,与会者评估了针对洪水、地震和恐怖主义损失的灾害保险计划。本文综合了研讨会的六篇论文和研究成果,并提出了在三个相互关联的领域改善灾害融资的公私伙伴关系的方法:(1)风险沟通,(2)风险降低,(3)风险转移。报告最后提出了一项综合保险计划,可以利用公共和私营部门的利益。
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引用次数: 15
ACA Exchange Competitiveness in Michigan ACA交换竞争力在密歇根州
Megan Foster Friedman, Joshua Fangmeier, Nancy Baum, Marianne Udow‐Phillips
The expansion of Medicaid and the creation of the Health Insurance Marketplace has provided greater access to health insurance coverage for many Michigan residents. To date, Michigan's Health Insurance Marketplace has seen relative success, in part due to the presence of multiple regional insurance carriers and the state's embrace of managed care in its Medicaid program in the 1990s. This report examines the conditions in Michigan's exchange market and analyzes its experience to date with carrier participation, pricing, and provider networks.
医疗补助计划的扩大和健康保险市场的创建为许多密歇根州居民提供了更多的健康保险覆盖范围。迄今为止,密歇根州的医疗保险市场取得了相对的成功,部分原因是多家地区性保险公司的存在,以及该州在20世纪90年代在其医疗补助计划中接受了管理式医疗。本报告考察了密歇根州交换市场的情况,并分析了迄今为止运营商参与、定价和供应商网络方面的经验。
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引用次数: 1
Financing Flood Losses: A Discussion of the National Flood Insurance Program 洪水损失的融资:国家洪水保险计划的探讨
C. Kousky
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), housed in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), has been providing flood insurance to households and businesses for almost 50 years. To inform the policy discussion leading up to reauthorization, this paper analyzes five aspects of the NFIP: (1) risk modeling and risk communication; (2) the roles of the public and private sector; (3) take-up rates; (4) incentives for risk reduction; and (5) rate setting and the financing of catastrophic flood events. Suggestions for reform are discussed.
隶属于联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)的国家洪水保险计划(NFIP)为家庭和企业提供洪水保险已有近50年的历史。本文分析了NFIP的五个方面:(1)风险建模和风险沟通;(2)公共和私营部门的作用;(三)吸收率;(4)降低风险的激励措施;(5)特大洪涝灾害的费率设定与融资。讨论了改革建议。
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引用次数: 104
Partial Adjustment to Public Information in the Pricing of IPOs ipo定价中公开信息的部分调整
E. Bakke, Tore E. Leite, K. Thorburn
Extant literature shows that IPO first-day returns are correlated with market returns preceding the issue. We propose a rational explanation for this puzzling predictability by adding a public signal to Benveniste and Spindt (1989)’s information-based framework. A novel result of our model is that the compensation required by investors to truthfully reveal their information decreases with the public signal. This “incentive effect” receives strong empirical support in a sample of 6300 IPOs in 1983–2012. Controlling for the incentive effect, the positive relation between initial returns and pre-issue market returns disappears for top-tier underwriters, where the order book is held to be most informative, effectively resolving the predictability puzzle.
现有文献表明,IPO首日收益与发行前的市场收益相关。我们通过在Benveniste和Spindt(1989)的信息基础框架中加入公共信号,对这种令人费解的可预测性提出了合理的解释。该模型的一个新颖结果是投资者真实披露信息所要求的补偿随着公开信号的增加而减少。这种“激励效应”在1983-2012年6300个ipo样本中得到了强有力的实证支持。在控制了激励效应后,对于顶级承销商来说,初始收益与发行前市场收益之间的正相关关系消失了,因为它们的认购书被认为是最具信息量的,有效地解决了可预测性难题。
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引用次数: 13
Is ERM Legally Required? Yes for Financial and Governmental Institutions, No for Private Enterprises 法律要求ERM吗?金融和政府机构可以,私营企业不可以
A. Whitman
We examine whether enterprise risk management (ERM) is legally required for financial institutions (e.g., banks, securities brokerage firms, insurance, hedge funds and mutual funds), government entities, publicly traded companies, and private enterprises. We find that ERM is legally required for U.S. financial institutions and for some government-sponsored enterprises. Legally required means required by U.S. statutes, federal case law, or U.S. regulatory agencies (e.g., Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC]). ERM is an important factor for rating organizations (e.g., Standard & Poor's [S&P]), but not legally required. We found no U.S. statutes or federal court cases requiring an ERM framework for private enterprises, although ERM is accepted as a value-contributing best practice, and elements of ERM are practiced by some private enterprises. For publically traded companies, elements of ERM are required by federal statute, by the SEC, and by S&P. We suggest that if a private enterprise is sued in U.S. federal court alleging breach of a legal duty to practice ERM, the suit will likely be dismissed. We trace the development of ERM from a traditional risk management (TRM) base. Fortunately, ERM is recognized as a value-contributing best practice in corporate governance even when legal standards do not require it.
我们研究企业风险管理(ERM)是否在法律上要求金融机构(如银行、证券经纪公司、保险、对冲基金和共同基金)、政府实体、上市公司和私营企业。我们发现,对于美国的金融机构和一些政府资助的企业,ERM是法律所要求的。法律要求是指美国法规、联邦判例法或美国监管机构(如证券交易委员会[SEC])所要求的。ERM是评级机构(如标准普尔[S&P])的一个重要因素,但不是法律要求。我们没有发现任何美国法规或联邦法院案例要求私营企业采用ERM框架,尽管ERM被认为是一种贡献价值的最佳实践,而且一些私营企业也在实践ERM的要素。对于上市公司,联邦法规、SEC和标准普尔都要求具备ERM的要素。我们认为,如果一家私营企业在美国联邦法院因违反实施ERM的法律义务而被起诉,诉讼可能会被驳回。我们从传统的风险管理(TRM)的基础上追溯ERM的发展。幸运的是,即使法律标准没有要求,ERM也被认为是公司治理中贡献价值的最佳实践。
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引用次数: 11
The Differential Effects of Noneconomic Damage Cap Levels on Medical Malpractice Insurers 非经济损害赔偿上限水平对医疗事故保险公司的差异影响
P. Born, Faith Roberts Neale
This study examines the effect of tort reform on medical malpractice insurers with an emphasis on the effect of cap levels on noneconomic damages. While previous research finds that caps on noneconomic damages have a beneficial effect on insurer performance, these studies do not evaluate the effects of caps of varying size. Examining insurer data from 1997 to 2007, we test whether cap levels matter. We find that insurer performance generally improves when the cap is set at $250,000, but caps exceeding $250,000 are not associated with improved performance, as they are possibly not binding on award amounts.
本研究考察了侵权改革对医疗事故保险公司的影响,重点是上限水平对非经济损害赔偿的影响。虽然以前的研究发现,非经济损失的上限对保险公司的业绩有有益的影响,但这些研究并没有评估不同规模的上限的影响。通过检验1997年至2007年的保险公司数据,我们检验了上限水平是否重要。我们发现,保险公司的业绩通常在25万美元的上限下有所改善,但超过25万美元的上限与业绩改善无关,因为它们可能对赔偿金额没有约束力。
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引用次数: 1
Fact or Friction: Jumps at Ultra High Frequency 事实或摩擦:以超高频率跳跃
Kim Christensen, R. Oomen, M. Podolskij
In this paper, we demonstrate that jumps in financial asset prices are not nearly as common as generally thought, and that they account for only a very small proportion of total return variation. We base our investigation on an extensive set of ultra high-frequency equity and foreign exchange rate data recorded at milli-second precision, allowing us to view the price evolution at a microscopic level. We show that both in theory and practice, traditional measures of jump variation based on low-frequency tick data tend to spuriously attribute a burst of volatility to the jump component thereby severely overstating the true variation coming from jumps. Indeed, our estimates based on tick data suggest that the jump variation is an order of magnitude smaller. This finding has a number of important implications for asset pricing and risk management and we illustrate this with a delta hedging example of an option trader that is short gamma. Our econometric analysis is build around a pre-averaging theory that allows us to work at the highest available frequency, where the data are polluted bymicrostructure noise. We extend the theory in a number of directions important for jump estimation and testing. This also reveals that pre-averaging has a built-in robustness property to outliers in high-frequency data, and allows us to show that some of the few remaining jumps at tick frequency are in fact induced by data-cleaning routines aimed at removing the outliers.
在本文中,我们证明了金融资产价格的跃升并不像通常认为的那样普遍,而且它们只占总回报变化的很小一部分。我们的调查基于一组广泛的以毫秒精度记录的超高频股票和外汇汇率数据,使我们能够在微观层面上观察价格演变。我们表明,在理论和实践中,基于低频滴答数据的跳跃变化的传统度量倾向于错误地将波动率的爆发归因于跳跃分量,从而严重夸大了来自跳跃的真实变化。事实上,我们基于蜱虫数据的估计表明,跳跃变化要小一个数量级。这一发现对资产定价和风险管理有许多重要的影响,我们用一个做空gamma的期权交易者的delta对冲例子来说明这一点。我们的计量经济学分析是建立在预平均理论的基础上的,该理论允许我们在最高可用频率下工作,而数据被微观结构噪声污染了。我们在跳跃估计和测试的一些重要方向上扩展了这个理论。这也表明,预平均对高频数据中的异常值具有内置的鲁棒性,并允许我们表明,在滴答频率上少数剩余的跳跃实际上是由旨在去除异常值的数据清理例程引起的。
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引用次数: 188
期刊
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics (Topic)
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