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Pricing and Hedging the Smile with SABR: Evidence from the Interest Rate Caps Market 用SABR定价和对冲微笑:来自利率上限市场的证据
Tao Wu
This is the first comprehensive study of the SABR (Stochastic Alpha-Beta-Rho) model (Hagan et. al (2002)) on the pricing and hedging of interest rate caps. We implement several versions of the SABR interest rate model and analyze their respective pricing and hedging performance using two years of daily data with seven different strikes and ten different tenors on each trading day. In-sample and out-of-sample tests show that in addition to having stochastic volatility for the forward rate, it is essential to recalibrate daily either the “vol of vol” or the correlation between forward rate and its volatility, although recalibrating both further improves pricing performance. The fully stochastic version of the SABR model exhibits excellent pricing accuracy and more importantly, captures the dynamics of the volatility smile over time very well. This is further demonstrated through examining delta hedging performance based on the SABR model. Our hedging result indicates that the SABR model produces accurate hedge ratios that outperform those implied by the Black model.
这是对SABR(随机α - β - rho)模型(Hagan等人(2002))关于利率上限定价和对冲的第一次全面研究。我们实施了几个版本的SABR利率模型,并使用两年的每日数据分析了它们各自的定价和对冲表现,每个交易日有七个不同的罢工和十个不同的期限。样本内和样本外测试表明,除了远期汇率具有随机波动率外,每天重新校准“波动率的波动率”或远期汇率与其波动率之间的相关性是至关重要的,尽管重新校准两者进一步提高了定价性能。SABR模型的完全随机版本显示出出色的定价准确性,更重要的是,它很好地捕捉了波动率随时间的动态变化。通过检验基于SABR模型的delta套期保值绩效,进一步证明了这一点。我们的对冲结果表明,SABR模型产生准确的对冲比率,其表现优于Black模型所隐含的对冲比率。
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引用次数: 11
ZABR -- Expansions for the Masses ZABR—面向大众的扩展
J. Andreasen, B. Huge
We extend the widely used SABR model (Hagan et al (2002)) to include a general volatility function and a CEV power on the stochastic volatility process itself. Using a short time expansion we derive results for the Dupire local volatility which in turn is inserted into a single time step finite difference scheme to generate arbitrage free option prices. Our approach has a number of advantages over the standard SABR model: a. it eliminates arbitrage for low and high strikes, b. it allows for an exact fit to a set of discrete option quotes, and c. it gives more explicit control over the wings, both for low (and potentially negative) strikes and for very high strikes. All of this without sacrificing speed in the implementation.
我们扩展了广泛使用的SABR模型(Hagan等人(2002)),以包括一般波动函数和随机波动过程本身的CEV功率。利用短时间展开式导出Dupire局部波动率的结果,然后将其插入到单时间步长有限差分格式中以生成无套利期权价格。与标准的SABR模型相比,我们的方法有很多优点:a.它消除了低和高的执行价套利,b.它允许对一组离散的期权报价进行精确拟合,c.它对低(和潜在的负)执行价和非常高的执行价都提供了更明确的控制。所有这些都不会牺牲实现的速度。
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引用次数: 19
On the Pricing of Contingent Capital Notes 论或有资本票据的定价
D. Madan
A bank's stock price is modeled as a call option on the spread of random assets over random liabilities. The logarithm of assets and liabilities are jointly modeled as driven by four variance gamma processes and this model is estimated by calibrating to quoted equity options seen as compound spread options. On defining risk-weighted assets as asset value less the bid price plus the ask price of liabilities less the liability value we endogenize capital adequacy ratios following the methods of conic finance for the bid and ask prices. All computations are illustrated on CSGN.VX, ADRed into USD on March 29, 2011.
银行的股票价格被建模为随机资产与随机负债之间价差的看涨期权。资产和负债的对数由四个方差伽玛过程共同建模,该模型通过校准被视为复合价差期权的报价股票期权来估计。在将风险加权资产定义为资产价值减去投标价格加上负债的要价减去负债价值的基础上,我们按照经济金融的方法内化了投标价格和投标价格的资本充足率。所有计算都在CSGN上进行了说明。VX, ADRed在2011年3月29日兑换成美元。
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引用次数: 5
Predictability of Currency Carry Trades and Asset Pricing Implications 货币套息交易的可预测性及其对资产定价的影响
G. Bakshi, George Panayotov
This paper studies the time series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the US dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict in-sample the payoffs of dynamically re-balanced carry trades, as evidenced by individual and joint p-values in monthly predictive regressions at horizons up to six months. Predictability is further supported through out-of-sample metrics, and a predictability-based decision rule produces sizable improvements in the Sharpe ratios and skewness profile of carry trade payoffs. Our evidence also indicates that predictability can be traced to the long legs of the carry trades and their currency components. We test the theoretical restrictions that an asset pricing model, with average currency returns and the mimicking portfolio for the innovations in currency volatility as risk factors, imposes on the coefficients in predictive regressions.
本文研究了货币套息交易的时间序列可预测性,该交易是基于远期折扣来选择对美元买入或卖出的货币。商品指数、货币波动性的变化,以及在较小程度上衡量流动性的变化,可以预测样本内动态再平衡套利交易的收益,这一点可以从长达6个月的月度预测回归中的个人和联合p值中得到证明。可预测性通过样本外指标得到进一步支持,基于可预测性的决策规则在利差交易收益的夏普比率和偏度方面产生了相当大的改进。我们的证据还表明,可预测性可以追溯到套息交易的长腿交易及其货币组成部分。我们检验了以平均货币收益和货币波动创新的模仿组合为风险因素的资产定价模型对预测回归系数的理论限制。
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引用次数: 140
Traversing the Short-Sale-Ban and the No-Ban Regime: A New Tale of the Old Overvaluation Story 穿越卖空禁令和无禁令制度:旧估值过高故事的新故事
Xiaoming Li, M. Bai
Recent studies add to the evidence against Miller’s (1977) overvaluation theory, further dwarfing the already sparse evidence for the theory. In this paper, we identify several issues untouched so far. Addressing these issues simultaneously, we conceive a novel empirical identification strategy which (1) looks at short-sale bans rather than short-sale constraints; (2) treats a short-sale ban (or no ban) as a regime rather than as an event; (3) probes the same stock that traverses the ban and no-ban regimes rather than different stocks concurrently under different regimes or the same regime; and (4) allows for possible endogeneity in regulators’ decision to change the short-selling regime for a stock. Employing data from the Hong Kong market, we find robust and strong evidence for Miller’s theory. Stocks earn significantly higher abnormal returns in the ban regime than in the no-ban regime. The ban regime and wider dispersion of investor opinions reinforce each other in further increasing current, while further reducing subsequent, returns to individual stocks. The tick rule acts as a short-sale constraint to impair the negative price effects of the no-ban regime.
最近的研究增加了反对Miller(1977)高估理论的证据,进一步削弱了该理论本已稀少的证据。在本文中,我们确定了到目前为止尚未触及的几个问题。为了同时解决这些问题,我们设想了一种新的实证识别策略,该策略(1)着眼于卖空禁令而不是卖空限制;(2)将卖空禁令(或不禁令)视为一种制度,而不是一个事件;(3)对跨越禁令和禁止令制度的同一品种进行调查,而不是对不同制度下或同一制度下的不同品种同时进行调查;(4)允许监管机构改变股票卖空机制的决定可能存在内生性。利用香港市场的数据,我们为米勒的理论找到了有力的证据。股票在禁售制度下的异常收益明显高于不禁售制度下的异常收益。禁令制度和投资者意见的更广泛分散相互加强,进一步增加了当前的回报,同时进一步减少了随后的个股回报。嘀嗒规则起到了卖空约束的作用,以削弱不禁令制度对价格的负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Rate Regulation on Claims: Evidence from Massachusetts Automobile Insurance 费率管制对索赔的影响:来自马萨诸塞州汽车保险的证据
Pub Date : 2011-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6296.2011.01206.x
R. Derrig, Sharon Tennyson
The article tests the hypothesis that insurance price subsidies created by rate regulation lead to higher insurance cost growth. The article makes use of data from the Massachusetts private passenger automobile insurance market, where cross‐subsidies were explicitly built into the rate structure through rules that limit rate differentials and differences in rate increases across driver rating categories. Two approaches are taken to study the potential loss cost reaction to the Massachusetts cross‐subsidies. The first approach compares Massachusetts with all other states while controlling for demographic, regulatory, and liability coverage levels. Loss cost levels that were about 29 percent above the expected level are found for Massachusetts during years 1978–1998, when premiums charged were those fixed by the state and included explicit subsidies for high‐risk drivers. A second approach considers changing cost levels across Massachusetts by studying loss cost changes by town and relating those changes to subsidy providers and subsidy receivers. Subsidy data based on accident year data for 1993–2004 show a significant and positive (relative) growth in loss costs and an increasing proportion of high‐risk drivers for towns that were subsidy receivers, in line with the theory of underlying incentives for adverse selection and moral hazard.
本文检验了费率管制产生的保险价格补贴导致保险成本增长的假设。本文利用了马萨诸塞州私人客运汽车保险市场的数据,其中交叉补贴通过限制费率差异和驾驶员评级类别之间费率增长差异的规则明确内置到费率结构中。采用两种方法来研究马萨诸塞州交叉补贴的潜在损失成本反应。第一种方法将马萨诸塞州与所有其他州进行比较,同时控制人口、监管和责任覆盖水平。马萨诸塞州在1978年至1998年期间的损失成本水平比预期水平高出约29%,当时收取的保费是由国家确定的,并包括对高风险司机的明确补贴。第二种方法考虑改变马萨诸塞州的成本水平,方法是研究每个城镇的损失成本变化,并将这些变化与补贴提供者和补贴接受者联系起来。基于1993-2004年事故年数据的补贴数据显示,在接受补贴的城镇,损失成本显著正(相对)增长,高风险司机比例增加,这与逆向选择和道德风险的潜在激励理论一致。
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引用次数: 36
Factorial Moments in Complex Systems 复杂系统的阶乘矩
Laurent Schoeffel
Factorial moments are convenient tools in particle physics to characterize the multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution ($Delta$) becomes small. They include all correlations within the system of particles and represent integral characteristics of any correlation between these particles. In this letter, we show a direct comparison between high energy physics and quantitative finance results. Both for physics and finance, we illustrate that correlations between particles lead to a broadening of the multiplicity distribution and to dynamical fluctuations when the resolution becomes small enough. From the generating function of factorial moments, we make a prediction on the gap probability for sequences of returns of positive or negative signs. The gap is defined as the number of consecutive positive returns after a negative return, thus this is a gap in negative return. Inversely for a gap in positive return. Then, the gap probability is shown to be exponentially suppressed within the gap size. We confirm this prediction with data.
阶乘矩是粒子物理中表征相空间分辨率($Delta$)变小时多重分布的方便工具。它们包括粒子系统内的所有关联,并表示这些粒子之间任何关联的整体特征。在这封信中,我们展示了高能物理和定量金融结果之间的直接比较。对于物理和金融,我们都说明了粒子之间的相关性会导致多重分布的扩大以及当分辨率变得足够小时的动态波动。从阶乘矩的生成函数出发,预测了正负返回序列的间隙概率。这个缺口被定义为一个负收益之后连续正收益的数量,因此这是一个负收益的缺口。正回报的差距是相反的。然后,间隙概率在间隙大小内呈指数抑制。我们用数据证实了这一预测。
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引用次数: 1
On Martingale Measures and Pricing for Continuous Bond-Stock Market with Stochastic Bond 具有随机债券的连续债券-股票市场的鞅测度与定价
N. Dokuchaev
This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a num'eraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small stochastic deviations in the evolution of the num'eraire process causes significant changes in the market properties. In particular, an equivalent martingale measure is not unique for this market, and there are non-replicable claims. The martingale prices and the hedging error can vary significantly and take extreme values, for some extreme choices of the equivalent martingale measures. Some rational choices of the equivalent martingale measures are suggested and discussed, including implied measures calculated from observed bond prices. This allows to calculate the implied market price of risk process.
本文研究了连续时间市场模型下的股票期权定价问题,该模型中存在两种随机可交易资产,并选取其中一种资产作为随机数序列。研究表明,任意小的随机偏差的存在会引起市场性质的显著变化。特别是,等效鞅度量对于这个市场来说并不是唯一的,并且存在不可复制的主张。在等效鞅测度的某些极端选择下,边际价格和套期误差会发生显著变化并取极值。本文提出并讨论了一些等效鞅测度的合理选择,包括从观察到的债券价格计算的隐含测度。这样就可以计算风险过程的隐含市场价格。
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引用次数: 0
CVA Implied Vol and Netting Arbitrage CVA隐含成交量和净套利
Christian Kamtchueng
After Lehman default (credit crisis which started in 2007), practitioners considered the default risk as a major risk. The Industry began to charge for the default risk of any derivatives. In this article we try to extend the work of V.Piterbarg who established the fundamental of a new world in the pricing of derivatives. Our main focus will be on the Equity CVA but can be extended to any asset class. In this article we established the default risky price of particular space of derivatives based on vanilla CVA then we introduced the CVA implied Volatility and described a new pricing methodology.
雷曼违约(始于2007年的信贷危机)后,从业者将违约风险视为主要风险。该行业开始对任何衍生品的违约风险收费。在本文中,我们试图扩展V.Piterbarg的工作,他建立了一个新的衍生品定价世界的基础。我们的主要重点是股票CVA,但可以扩展到任何资产类别。本文基于香草CVA建立了衍生品特定空间的违约风险价格,并引入CVA隐含波动率,描述了一种新的定价方法。
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引用次数: 4
A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models Nelson和Siegel一类收益率曲线模型的理论基础
Leo Krippner
This article establishes that most yield curve models within the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987, hereafter NS) class may be obtained as a formal Taylor approximation to the dynamic component of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model outlined in Dai and Singleton (2002). That fundamental theoretical foundation provides an assurance to users of NS models that they correspond to a well-accepted set of principles and assumptions for modeling the yield curve and its dynamics. Indeed, arbitrage-free NS models will parsimoniously and reliably represent the data generated by any Gaussian affine term structure model regardless of its true number of underlying factors and specification, and even non-arbitrage-free NS models will adequately capture the dynamics of the state variables. Combined with the well-established practical benefits of applying NS models, the theoretical foundation provides a compelling case for applying NS models as standard tools for yield curve modeling and analysis in economics and finance. As an illustration, this article develops a two-factor arbitrage-free NS model and applies it to testing for changes in United States yield curve dynamics. The results confirm those of Rudebusch and Wu (2007) based on a latent two-factor essentially affine term structure model: there was a material change in the behavior of the yield curve between the sample prior to 1988 and the sample from 1988 onwards.
本文确立了流行的Nelson和Siegel(1987,以下简称NS)类中的大多数收益率曲线模型可以作为Dai和Singleton(2002)中概述的通用高斯仿射期限结构模型的动态分量的正式泰勒近似来获得。这一基本理论基础为NS模型的用户提供了保证,即它们符合一套广为接受的原则和假设,用于为收益率曲线及其动态建模。事实上,无套利的NS模型将简洁而可靠地表示任何高斯仿射期限结构模型生成的数据,而不管其潜在因素和规格的真实数量,甚至非无套利的NS模型也将充分捕捉状态变量的动态。结合应用NS模型已确立的实际效益,理论基础为将NS模型作为经济和金融领域收益率曲线建模和分析的标准工具提供了令人信服的案例。作为说明,本文开发了一个无套利的双因素NS模型,并将其应用于测试美国收益率曲线动态的变化。结果证实了Rudebusch和Wu(2007)基于一个潜在的双因素本质上仿仿的期限结构模型的结论:1988年之前的样本和1988年之后的样本之间的收益率曲线行为发生了实质性变化。
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引用次数: 42
期刊
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics (Topic)
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