Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1648
Sugeng Triwibowo, Defy Oktaviani
We examine the impact of the monetary policy on regional output gaps across 33 Indonesian provinces. Heterogeneous regional responses of the output gap to monetary policy shock are captured using the Vector Autoregressive model. Moreover, the idiosyncratic variations across provinces accounted for different responses are observed with the spatial econometric model. The spatial analysis suggests that economic structure and financial depth positively and significantly determine the aforesaid asymmetric responses. On the other hand, economic size and trade openness have a negative impact on them.
{"title":"ASYMMETRIC IMPACTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCK ON OUTPUT GAP: EVIDENCE FROM REGIONS IN INDONESIA","authors":"Sugeng Triwibowo, Defy Oktaviani","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1648","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the impact of the monetary policy on regional output gaps across 33 Indonesian provinces. Heterogeneous regional responses of the output gap to monetary policy shock are captured using the Vector Autoregressive model. Moreover, the idiosyncratic variations across provinces accounted for different responses are observed with the spatial econometric model. The spatial analysis suggests that economic structure and financial depth positively and significantly determine the aforesaid asymmetric responses. On the other hand, economic size and trade openness have a negative impact on them.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47272101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1315
Dyah Pritadrajati
The Indonesian government has been introducing revitalisation programmes for vocational schools, particularly during the period 2007 and 2011. It has targeted 7 out of 10 senior-secondary schools to be vocational schools by 2025 through new establishment or conversion of established general schools into vocational schools. To evaluate the government policy on the expansion of vocational education, this paperanalyses the effects of enrolment in vocational senior-secondary schools on four labour market outcomes; namely, labour force participation, risk of unemployment, job formality, and income. Using a rich socioeconomic survey from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we find that public vocational education provides better labour outcomes for females than public general schools. However, no such difference is found for males. Moreover, our results suggest that many vocational schools, especially private ones, performed poorly in terms of their graduate’s job formality and income.
{"title":"FROM SCHOOL TO WORK: DOES VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IMPROVE LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA","authors":"Dyah Pritadrajati","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1315","url":null,"abstract":"The Indonesian government has been introducing revitalisation programmes for vocational schools, particularly during the period 2007 and 2011. It has targeted 7 out of 10 senior-secondary schools to be vocational schools by 2025 through new establishment or conversion of established general schools into vocational schools. To evaluate the government policy on the expansion of vocational education, this paperanalyses the effects of enrolment in vocational senior-secondary schools on four labour market outcomes; namely, labour force participation, risk of unemployment, job formality, and income. Using a rich socioeconomic survey from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we find that public vocational education provides better labour outcomes for females than public general schools. However, no such difference is found for males. Moreover, our results suggest that many vocational schools, especially private ones, performed poorly in terms of their graduate’s job formality and income.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48637640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1743
Sugiharso Safuan, E. Sugandi, Okta Qomaruddin Azis, Risna Triandhari
In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money market rate) and the policy variable (broad money supply during the times of high and low financial stress). Regime changes occurred on several occasions, including during the 2008 global financial crisis period and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
{"title":"INDONESIA’S FINANCIAL STRESS EVENTS AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS","authors":"Sugiharso Safuan, E. Sugandi, Okta Qomaruddin Azis, Risna Triandhari","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1743","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money market rate) and the policy variable (broad money supply during the times of high and low financial stress). Regime changes occurred on several occasions, including during the 2008 global financial crisis period and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48828816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.2121
Justina Adamanti, Sugiharso Safuan, Z. Husodo
This study analyzes the impact of domestic investors’ participation in government debt on bank loans to the private sector in advanced and emerging countries. We find that domestic bank participation in government debt has a more profound negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in advanced than in emerging countries. Meanwhile, domestic non-bank participation in government debt only negatively impacts bank loans to private sector in emerging countries. While both domestic bank and non-bank participation in government debt have a negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in emerging countries, the latter has a weaker impact.
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC INVESTORS’ PARTICIPATION IN GOVERNMENT DEBT ON BANK LOANS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR: A CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY","authors":"Justina Adamanti, Sugiharso Safuan, Z. Husodo","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.2121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.2121","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes the impact of domestic investors’ participation in government debt on bank loans to the private sector in advanced and emerging countries. We find that domestic bank participation in government debt has a more profound negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in advanced than in emerging countries. Meanwhile, domestic non-bank participation in government debt only negatively impacts bank loans to private sector in emerging countries. While both domestic bank and non-bank participation in government debt have a negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in emerging countries, the latter has a weaker impact.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43576066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1981
Advis Budiman, Sugiharso Safuan, Solikin M. Juhro, F. Kacaribu
This paper attempts to investigate the impact of policy mix in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and the Del Negro et al. (2007) approach to estimate the model. We investigate the effectiveness of policy mix in Indonesia by taking into account real and financial linkages, as well as other market imperfections. We intend to analyze and evaluate the adequacy of monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policy by simulating each policy option using Indonesian-specific factors and comparing them. Our findings show that policy mix has a greater impact on accelerating economic recovery but does not necessarily lead to anchor inflation.
{"title":"PANDEMIC SHOCKS AND MACRO-FINANCIAL POLICY RESPONSES: AN ESTIMATED DSGE-VAR MODEL FOR INDONESIA","authors":"Advis Budiman, Sugiharso Safuan, Solikin M. Juhro, F. Kacaribu","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1981","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to investigate the impact of policy mix in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and the Del Negro et al. (2007) approach to estimate the model. We investigate the effectiveness of policy mix in Indonesia by taking into account real and financial linkages, as well as other market imperfections. We intend to analyze and evaluate the adequacy of monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policy by simulating each policy option using Indonesian-specific factors and comparing them. Our findings show that policy mix has a greater impact on accelerating economic recovery but does not necessarily lead to anchor inflation.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47482193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1815
Jesica Nauli Br. Siringo Ringo, A. Monika
This study aims to nowcast gross regional domestic product at the provincial level for Indonesia. The dynamic factor model and mixed data sampling were applied to three sets of variables; namely, macroeconomic, financial, and Google Trends. We find that both methods captured several economic expansions and contractions, including the recent downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic. By including the pandemic period, accuracy across the same set of variables and provinces was slightly reduced.
{"title":"NOWCASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA","authors":"Jesica Nauli Br. Siringo Ringo, A. Monika","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1815","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to nowcast gross regional domestic product at the provincial level for Indonesia. The dynamic factor model and mixed data sampling were applied to three sets of variables; namely, macroeconomic, financial, and Google Trends. We find that both methods captured several economic expansions and contractions, including the recent downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic. By including the pandemic period, accuracy across the same set of variables and provinces was slightly reduced.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49304392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-30DOI: 10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1870
A. Maghyereh, N. Virk, B. Awartani, Mohammad Al Shboul
This paper examines the systemic risk and its spillover between banking sectors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region using the conditional value-at-risk framework. We construct country-specific banking indices using 11 large banks in the region that are systemically important (SIB). We report evidence of systemic risk spilloversfrom SIBs to the broad-based GCC market indices. The incremental tail spillovers are statistically significant for other domestic banks’ tail risk and inflate the systemic risk of cross-country GCC banks.
{"title":"THE SYSTEMIC RISK IN THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COUNTRIES’ EQUITY MARKETS AND BANKING SECTORS: A DYNAMIC COVAR APPROACH","authors":"A. Maghyereh, N. Virk, B. Awartani, Mohammad Al Shboul","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1870","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the systemic risk and its spillover between banking sectors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region using the conditional value-at-risk framework. We construct country-specific banking indices using 11 large banks in the region that are systemically important (SIB). We report evidence of systemic risk spilloversfrom SIBs to the broad-based GCC market indices. The incremental tail spillovers are statistically significant for other domestic banks’ tail risk and inflate the systemic risk of cross-country GCC banks.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48864130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1825
Subagio Efendi, Salim Darmadi, Robert Czernkowski
This study examines how financial firms’ tax aggressiveness differs from their peers in other sectors. Using confidential tax return data of the 5,968 largest Indonesian firms from 2009 to 2017, our study finds financial firms to have lower tax burdens relative to their non-financial counterparts, suggesting more opportunities for tax avoidance. Further, we document simultaneous use of tax shelters and temporary and permanentdifferences between accounting standards and tax laws, indicating a tendency to use the most sophisticated and less costly techniques in minimising tax burdens. These findings suggest tax aggressiveness may be one important unintended consequence of the government’s conventional prudential policy.
{"title":"ARE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TAX AGGRESSIVE? EVIDENCE FROM CORPORATE TAX RETURN DATA","authors":"Subagio Efendi, Salim Darmadi, Robert Czernkowski","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1825","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how financial firms’ tax aggressiveness differs from their peers in other sectors. Using confidential tax return data of the 5,968 largest Indonesian firms from 2009 to 2017, our study finds financial firms to have lower tax burdens relative to their non-financial counterparts, suggesting more opportunities for tax avoidance. Further, we document simultaneous use of tax shelters and temporary and permanentdifferences between accounting standards and tax laws, indicating a tendency to use the most sophisticated and less costly techniques in minimising tax burdens. These findings suggest tax aggressiveness may be one important unintended consequence of the government’s conventional prudential policy.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42838834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1845
Marcella A. Putri, Chandra Utama, I. Mokoginta
This study investigates the impact of fiscal space on the probability that the government of Indonesia will be able to implement counter-cyclical fiscal behavior. We use ordinary least squares and probit methods to estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. This study confirms that increasing fiscal space can increase the probability of the government to execute its counter-cyclical behavior policy. A proposal to increase the space includes generating alternative sources of government revenues from taxes and non-taxes and redesigning subsidies toward selected targeting recipients to reduce the non-discretionary part of the government budget.
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF FISCAL SPACE ON INDONESIA’S FISCAL BEHAVIOR","authors":"Marcella A. Putri, Chandra Utama, I. Mokoginta","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1845","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of fiscal space on the probability that the government of Indonesia will be able to implement counter-cyclical fiscal behavior. We use ordinary least squares and probit methods to estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. This study confirms that increasing fiscal space can increase the probability of the government to execute its counter-cyclical behavior policy. A proposal to increase the space includes generating alternative sources of government revenues from taxes and non-taxes and redesigning subsidies toward selected targeting recipients to reduce the non-discretionary part of the government budget.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41816609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1863
Z. Wong, Fanyu Chen, S. Law, N. Ismail
This study investigates the effects of rent seeking activities on economic growth in 53 middle-income countries. Our data spans the period 2011 to 2020. We use the generalized method of moments estimator to examine the effects of rent-seeking activities on economic growth. Our study also includes several control variables, namely democratic accountability, public debt, human capital, foreign direct investment, capital stock, population, research and development expenditure and trade openness. The empirical results suggest that rent-seeking activities impede economic growth in middle-income countries.
{"title":"THE EFFECTS OF RENT SEEKING ACTIVITIES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES","authors":"Z. Wong, Fanyu Chen, S. Law, N. Ismail","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1863","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the effects of rent seeking activities on economic growth in 53 middle-income countries. Our data spans the period 2011 to 2020. We use the generalized method of moments estimator to examine the effects of rent-seeking activities on economic growth. Our study also includes several control variables, namely democratic accountability, public debt, human capital, foreign direct investment, capital stock, population, research and development expenditure and trade openness. The empirical results suggest that rent-seeking activities impede economic growth in middle-income countries.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41957247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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