Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1867
Ameen Omar Shareef, K. Prabheesh
This study empirically examines the impact of international monetary policy on bank risk in the Indian context. Using annual data from 64 banks and employing panel OLS and GMM techniques, this study finds that: (1) a contractionary international monetary policy increases bank risk; (2) an appreciation of the domestic exchange rate induces bank riskiness; (3) the domestic monetary policy affects bank risk through the “search for yield” channel; and (4) the international monetary policy is relatively significant in explaining the bank riskiness in the post-global financial crisis period.
{"title":"DOES INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCE THE BANK RISK? EVIDENCE FROM INDIA","authors":"Ameen Omar Shareef, K. Prabheesh","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1867","url":null,"abstract":"This study empirically examines the impact of international monetary policy on bank risk in the Indian context. Using annual data from 64 banks and employing panel OLS and GMM techniques, this study finds that: (1) a contractionary international monetary policy increases bank risk; (2) an appreciation of the domestic exchange rate induces bank riskiness; (3) the domestic monetary policy affects bank risk through the “search for yield” channel; and (4) the international monetary policy is relatively significant in explaining the bank riskiness in the post-global financial crisis period.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44798034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1826
Darjana Darjana, Sudarso Kadero Wiryono, Deddy P. Koesrindartoto
This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on credit performance of banks in Java. We have used monthly panel data from January 2016 to December 2020 of the Java region. We find that the credit performance declines during the pandemic amid the economic downturn compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Overall, ourfindings suggest that the delivery of credit types has been affected except working capital. Likewise, the credit for the main economic sectors is significantly influenced by the pandemic.
{"title":"DOES CREDIT PERFORMANCE CHANGE IN THE POSTCOVID- 19? EVIDENCE FROM JAVA ISLAND, INDONESIA","authors":"Darjana Darjana, Sudarso Kadero Wiryono, Deddy P. Koesrindartoto","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1826","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on credit performance of banks in Java. We have used monthly panel data from January 2016 to December 2020 of the Java region. We find that the credit performance declines during the pandemic amid the economic downturn compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Overall, ourfindings suggest that the delivery of credit types has been affected except working capital. Likewise, the credit for the main economic sectors is significantly influenced by the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48476503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.2004
Afees A. Salisu, Elias A. Udeaja, Silva Opuala-Charles
In this paper, we explore the connection between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and inflation under alternative political regimes. We formulate a predictive model that accommodates CBI in the analysis of inflation and thereafter we regroup the countries based on the choice of political regimes as well as the level of development. We find that CBI has a statistically significant and negative effect on inflation in countries adopting full democratic and partial autocratic regimes; but are statistically insignificant in countries operating full autocratic and partial democratic regimes. The results leading to this conclusion are robust to different levels of development.
{"title":"CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND PRICE STABILITY UNDER ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL REGIMES: A GLOBAL EVIDENCE","authors":"Afees A. Salisu, Elias A. Udeaja, Silva Opuala-Charles","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.2004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.2004","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we explore the connection between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and inflation under alternative political regimes. We formulate a predictive model that accommodates CBI in the analysis of inflation and thereafter we regroup the countries based on the choice of political regimes as well as the level of development. We find that CBI has a statistically significant and negative effect on inflation in countries adopting full democratic and partial autocratic regimes; but are statistically insignificant in countries operating full autocratic and partial democratic regimes. The results leading to this conclusion are robust to different levels of development.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42780826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1636
L. Truong, Ha Hoang Ngoc Le, D. Vo
This study examines the asymmetric effects of Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) on Vietnam’s international trade. Using time-series data fitted to the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, we find that positive changes in ERV have a negative impact on the trade balance in the short-run. On the other hand,increases in ERV have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long-run. We also find that negative changes in ERV do not have any significant effect on the trade balance.
{"title":"THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF VIETNAM","authors":"L. Truong, Ha Hoang Ngoc Le, D. Vo","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i2.1636","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the asymmetric effects of Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) on Vietnam’s international trade. Using time-series data fitted to the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, we find that positive changes in ERV have a negative impact on the trade balance in the short-run. On the other hand,increases in ERV have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long-run. We also find that negative changes in ERV do not have any significant effect on the trade balance.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43081103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1798
V. Dang, H. Nguyen
Using a new measure of micro uncertainty based on the cross-sectional dispersion of bank-level shocks, we analyze the impact of banking uncertainty on credit risk in Vietnam during the period 2007–2019. We document that a higher level of banking uncertainty may increase credit risk, and this unfavorable impact is mitigated at larger, better capitalized, and more liquid banks. As compared to private-owned banks, stateowned banks experience higher credit risk during periods of uncertainty. Further analysis supports the “search for yield” hypothesis and helps to better understand why credit risk increases amid uncertainty.
{"title":"CREDIT RISK AMID BANKING UNCERTAINTY IN VIETNAM","authors":"V. Dang, H. Nguyen","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1798","url":null,"abstract":"Using a new measure of micro uncertainty based on the cross-sectional dispersion of bank-level shocks, we analyze the impact of banking uncertainty on credit risk in Vietnam during the period 2007–2019. We document that a higher level of banking uncertainty may increase credit risk, and this unfavorable impact is mitigated at larger, better capitalized, and more liquid banks. As compared to private-owned banks, stateowned banks experience higher credit risk during periods of uncertainty. Further analysis supports the “search for yield” hypothesis and helps to better understand why credit risk increases amid uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67827056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1979
Novi Maryaningsih, Suahasil Nazara, F. Kacaribu, Solikin M. Juhro
This paper attempts to explain the differences in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) adoption across emerging and advanced countries using an ordered probit model. Based on a cross-country dataset, we show that wholesale CBDC is more advanced in countries with developed financial markets and greater cross-border transactions. Retail CBDC is more advanced in countries with lower financial inclusion and a large informal economy. We further show that different factors affect retail CBDC adoption across emerging and advanced countries. However, cross-border transactions are the most crucial factor influencing wholesale CBDC adoption across emerging and advanced countries.
{"title":"CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY: WHAT FACTORS DETERMINE ITS ADOPTION?","authors":"Novi Maryaningsih, Suahasil Nazara, F. Kacaribu, Solikin M. Juhro","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1979","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to explain the differences in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) adoption across emerging and advanced countries using an ordered probit model. Based on a cross-country dataset, we show that wholesale CBDC is more advanced in countries with developed financial markets and greater cross-border transactions. Retail CBDC is more advanced in countries with lower financial inclusion and a large informal economy. We further show that different factors affect retail CBDC adoption across emerging and advanced countries. However, cross-border transactions are the most crucial factor influencing wholesale CBDC adoption across emerging and advanced countries.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46206061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1988
D. Penzin, Afees A. Salisu, B. Akanegbu
We examine the effect of public debt on private investment in selected emerging economies. Using a panel threshold regression model, we estimate a threshold value of about 3 percent, on average, below which public debt stimulates private investment. Our additional analysis involving selected developed economies suggests that the crowding out effect is less evident relative to the emerging economies as higher public debt stocks do not seem to significantly undermine their private investments. These results have implications for debt sustainability and maintaining a reasonable public debt–GDP ratio is crucial for sustainable investment growth.
{"title":"A NOTE ON PUBLIC DEBT-PRIVATE INVESTMENT NEXUS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES","authors":"D. Penzin, Afees A. Salisu, B. Akanegbu","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1988","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effect of public debt on private investment in selected emerging economies. Using a panel threshold regression model, we estimate a threshold value of about 3 percent, on average, below which public debt stimulates private investment. Our additional analysis involving selected developed economies suggests that the crowding out effect is less evident relative to the emerging economies as higher public debt stocks do not seem to significantly undermine their private investments. These results have implications for debt sustainability and maintaining a reasonable public debt–GDP ratio is crucial for sustainable investment growth.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42818367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1838
Derviş Kırıkkaleli, M. Kartal, T. Adebayo
This study examines the time and frequency dependency nexus between foreign exchange (FX) rates and country risk in Turkey. We considered Turkey because it is a negative outlier country in terms of the progress of these indicators. Using quarterly data from 1990/Q1 to 2018/Q4 and the Wavelet Coherence approach, we find that an increase in the country risk causes an increase in the FX rates at different frequencies, especially in the medium and long term and different periods. The results highlight the significance of country risk for the progress of the FX rates. Policy implications are discussed.
{"title":"TIME AND FREQUENCY DEPENDENCY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND COUNTRY RISK: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY","authors":"Derviş Kırıkkaleli, M. Kartal, T. Adebayo","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1838","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the time and frequency dependency nexus between foreign exchange (FX) rates and country risk in Turkey. We considered Turkey because it is a negative outlier country in terms of the progress of these indicators. Using quarterly data from 1990/Q1 to 2018/Q4 and the Wavelet Coherence approach, we find that an increase in the country risk causes an increase in the FX rates at different frequencies, especially in the medium and long term and different periods. The results highlight the significance of country risk for the progress of the FX rates. Policy implications are discussed.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47655447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1045
Adam Luthfi Kusumatrisna, Iman Sugema, S. Pasaribu
This paper investigated the linear and nonlinear relationships between inflation and economic growth in Indonesia using provincial data from 1994 to 2019. The linear model revealed that inflation has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while the nonlinear model revealed that inflation would negatively affect economic growth only after exceeding a threshold value of 9.59 percent. Excluding a high inflationarystructural break, we found an inflation threshold of 5.22 percent. Furthermore, we found that the threshold of inflation rate in the eastern regions of Indonesia was higher than that of the western regions, namely 9.64 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. These findings have significant implications for inflation targeting and management both at the national and regional levels.
{"title":"THRESHOLD EFFECT IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA","authors":"Adam Luthfi Kusumatrisna, Iman Sugema, S. Pasaribu","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1045","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigated the linear and nonlinear relationships between inflation and economic growth in Indonesia using provincial data from 1994 to 2019. The linear model revealed that inflation has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while the nonlinear model revealed that inflation would negatively affect economic growth only after exceeding a threshold value of 9.59 percent. Excluding a high inflationarystructural break, we found an inflation threshold of 5.22 percent. Furthermore, we found that the threshold of inflation rate in the eastern regions of Indonesia was higher than that of the western regions, namely 9.64 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. These findings have significant implications for inflation targeting and management both at the national and regional levels.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46959256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1878
D. Villanueva
In a two-class growth model of Pasinetti (1962), there is no financial intermediary that mobilizes bank deposits to be lent to the capitalist class for physical investment. The absence of a capital market also precludes workers from buying capitalists’ new issues of stocks and bonds to finance investment. Thus, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is independent of the saving rate of the working class—what Samuelson and Modigliani (1966) referred to as the Pasinetti paradox. In this paper’s modified Pasinetti framework with endogenous growth, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is shown to be a function of all structural parameters, including both saving rates of the capitalist and working classes. Additionally, the modified model explains the recessionary dynamics of the 2007/2008 global and regional financial crises. Implications for growth policies are drawn.
{"title":"FINANCE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH","authors":"D. Villanueva","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1878","url":null,"abstract":"In a two-class growth model of Pasinetti (1962), there is no financial intermediary that mobilizes bank deposits to be lent to the capitalist class for physical investment. The absence of a capital market also precludes workers from buying capitalists’ new issues of stocks and bonds to finance investment. Thus, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is independent of the saving rate of the working class—what Samuelson and Modigliani (1966) referred to as the Pasinetti paradox. In this paper’s modified Pasinetti framework with endogenous growth, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is shown to be a function of all structural parameters, including both saving rates of the capitalist and working classes. Additionally, the modified model explains the recessionary dynamics of the 2007/2008 global and regional financial crises. Implications for growth policies are drawn.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45768966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：