Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics最新文献

This paper analyses the role of economists in advising political agents. Based on the experience in the recent financial crisis, it starts with the important role of expectations management. Economists should make clear that precise forecasts are not possible but that application of economic principles and careful analysis of data and historical events can substantially improve political decisions. In order to be effective, economic advisors have to be aware of the first best as well as of the political feasibility of proposals. Efficiency is the obvious benchmark, but a large part of policy advice is about finding the least inefficient of the feasible alternatives. The paper argues that a crucial precondition for being an effective policy advisor are communication skills; academics who become policy advisors should not try to impress their peers but rather translate insights in a language that is understandable for educated laypeople. The paper then looks at the special situation of economic policy advice in the Swiss direct democracy before concluding with a summary of the most important preconditions for being a successful policy advisor.

This paper analyzes the relationship between factor substitutability and the energy intensity of manufacturing firms. Specifically, we compare the degree of substitutability between the input factors capital, labor, energy, and material for firms with low, medium, and high energy cost shares using a panel of Swiss manufacturing companies covering the period from 1997 to 2008. Our findings indicate substitutability between almost all production factors with one notable exception. Energy and capital are complements in the energy-intensive firm sample: A 1% increase in energy prices decreases capital use by 0.09%. We show that this complementarity is gradually increasing in the energy intensity of firms and draft important policy implications.

The aim of this paper is to present a review of the legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects of secessions from an economic perspective. This survey provides interesting insights into recent events such as the Brexit and the threat of secession made for instance by Scotland and Catalonia. International law does not grant a general right to secede, nor does it forbid secession. Furthermore, there are several modalities of secessions, which turn out to be important for new states that want to get an international recognition. For its part, the economic theory shows that the decision for a region to remain in a country (or a union) or to secede eventually results from a trade-off between the benefits of being part of a large country, on the one hand, and the costs often associated to more heterogeneity, on the other hand. The latter are generally more important for those regions which are "far away" from the central (federal) government. Empirical literature confirms the importance of these trade-offs and shows that decentralization may be effective to accommodate secessionist conflicts only if certain conditions are fulfilled.

The topic of this paper has been motivated by the rising unemployment rate of low-skilled relative to high-skilled labour in Switzerland. Between 1991 and 2014, Switzerland experienced the highest relative increase in the low-skilled unemployment rate among all OECD countries. A natural culprit for this development is "globalization" as indicated by some mass layoffs in Switzerland and as commonly voiced in public debates all over the world. Our analysis, which is based on panel data covering the years 1991 to 2008 and approximately 33,000 individuals employed in the Swiss manufacturing sector, does not, however, confirm this presumption. We do not find strong evidence for a positive relationship between import competition and (low-skilled) individuals' likelihood of becoming unemployed.

The safe haven property of the Swiss franc presents a specific challenge for internationally minded Swiss-based investors. The central issue is whether the traditional under-performance of Swiss assets is made up by the secular appreciation of the Swiss franc combined with the propensity of the safe haven to strengthen in times of market stress. In this paper, we review the evidence on the terms of this challenge. We conclude that a Swiss bias in asset allocation can lead to considerable return shortfalls over the long run and that systematic currency hedging would not have been historically justified and is unlikely to be in the future. Assuming a fair amount of currency risk thus appears inevitable for long-run Swiss-based investors.

Creative accounting allows governments and, more particularly, finance ministers to somehow manage financial reports to achieve specific and possibly self-interested goals. It is usually used to hide deficits. It sometimes also helps to present financial performance as being more worrisome than it actually is. In that case, ministers press more than needed for lower expenses and a higher tax burden. This pressure is expected to tame deficits or increase surpluses over time. Using panel data relative to the 26 Swiss cantons over the period 1980-2013, we estimate econometrically how a political finessing technique like 'depreciations management' affects subsequent government expenses and revenues and thus subsequent financial performance.

The U.S. Tax Program for Swiss banks is a very significant part of the recent history of the Swiss financial industry. It has accelerated the transformation of the Swiss banking industry from a system that relied on bank secrecy to a much more compliant one. It was also rather costly for the banks involved. This short paper tries to identify the determinants of the individual penalties that were levied by the DoJ. We find that U.S. assets under management is the most important determinant. However, the average size of the accounts, the behavior of the bank vis-à-vis its American clients, the solvency of the bank, and the point in time when the bank settled with the DoJ also matter.

Fuelled by federal stimuli of 440 million Swiss francs, the staggered expansion of childcare in many cantons allows the evaluation of this family policy on female labour supply. With new cantonal data, this study analyses both the decision to participate in the labour market and the intensity of participation. Empirical results of difference-in-differences regressions show that mothers work at higher percentage rates if they live in cantons that have expanded their childcare services more than the national average. The reform stimulated part-time employment of between 20 and 36 h per week by 2 percentage points. The expansion of childcare particularly affected women with two children and upper-secondary education, who are married or cohabit with their partner.

This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks' balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number of banks were important determinants of long-run money demand. The former variable also played an important role in the monetary adjustment process. We also detect a strong positive long-run impact of real income on the bank's balance-sheet-total-to-GDP ratio and a strong long-run influence of real income and the interest rate spread on the number of banks.