Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics最新文献

The topic of this paper has been motivated by the rising unemployment rate of low-skilled relative to high-skilled labour in Switzerland. Between 1991 and 2014, Switzerland experienced the highest relative increase in the low-skilled unemployment rate among all OECD countries. A natural culprit for this development is "globalization" as indicated by some mass layoffs in Switzerland and as commonly voiced in public debates all over the world. Our analysis, which is based on panel data covering the years 1991 to 2008 and approximately 33,000 individuals employed in the Swiss manufacturing sector, does not, however, confirm this presumption. We do not find strong evidence for a positive relationship between import competition and (low-skilled) individuals' likelihood of becoming unemployed.

The safe haven property of the Swiss franc presents a specific challenge for internationally minded Swiss-based investors. The central issue is whether the traditional under-performance of Swiss assets is made up by the secular appreciation of the Swiss franc combined with the propensity of the safe haven to strengthen in times of market stress. In this paper, we review the evidence on the terms of this challenge. We conclude that a Swiss bias in asset allocation can lead to considerable return shortfalls over the long run and that systematic currency hedging would not have been historically justified and is unlikely to be in the future. Assuming a fair amount of currency risk thus appears inevitable for long-run Swiss-based investors.

Creative accounting allows governments and, more particularly, finance ministers to somehow manage financial reports to achieve specific and possibly self-interested goals. It is usually used to hide deficits. It sometimes also helps to present financial performance as being more worrisome than it actually is. In that case, ministers press more than needed for lower expenses and a higher tax burden. This pressure is expected to tame deficits or increase surpluses over time. Using panel data relative to the 26 Swiss cantons over the period 1980-2013, we estimate econometrically how a political finessing technique like 'depreciations management' affects subsequent government expenses and revenues and thus subsequent financial performance.

The U.S. Tax Program for Swiss banks is a very significant part of the recent history of the Swiss financial industry. It has accelerated the transformation of the Swiss banking industry from a system that relied on bank secrecy to a much more compliant one. It was also rather costly for the banks involved. This short paper tries to identify the determinants of the individual penalties that were levied by the DoJ. We find that U.S. assets under management is the most important determinant. However, the average size of the accounts, the behavior of the bank vis-à-vis its American clients, the solvency of the bank, and the point in time when the bank settled with the DoJ also matter.

Fuelled by federal stimuli of 440 million Swiss francs, the staggered expansion of childcare in many cantons allows the evaluation of this family policy on female labour supply. With new cantonal data, this study analyses both the decision to participate in the labour market and the intensity of participation. Empirical results of difference-in-differences regressions show that mothers work at higher percentage rates if they live in cantons that have expanded their childcare services more than the national average. The reform stimulated part-time employment of between 20 and 36 h per week by 2 percentage points. The expansion of childcare particularly affected women with two children and upper-secondary education, who are married or cohabit with their partner.

This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks' balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number of banks were important determinants of long-run money demand. The former variable also played an important role in the monetary adjustment process. We also detect a strong positive long-run impact of real income on the bank's balance-sheet-total-to-GDP ratio and a strong long-run influence of real income and the interest rate spread on the number of banks.

The sovereign money initiative will be submitted to the Swiss people in 2018. This paper reviews the arguments behind the initiative and discusses its potential impact. I argue that several arguments are inconsistent with empirical evidence or with economic logic. In particular, controlling sight deposits neither stabilizes credit nor avoids financial crises. Also, assuming that deposits at the central bank are not a liability has implications for fiscal and monetary policy, and Benes and Kumhof (The Chicago Plan Revisited, 2012) do not provide support for the reform as they do not analyze the proposed Swiss monetary reform and their closed-economy model does not fit the Swiss economy. Then, using a simple model with monopolistically competitive banks, the paper assesses quantitatively the impact of removing sight deposits from commercial banks' balance sheets. Even though there is a gain for the state, the overall impact is negative, especially because depositors would face a negative return. Moreover, the initiative goes much beyond what would be the equivalent of full reserve requirement and would impose severe constraints on monetary policy; it would weaken financial stability rather than reinforce it; and it would threaten the trust in the Swiss monetary system. Finally, there is high uncertainty both on the details of the reform and on its impact.

This article develops unbiased weighted variance and skewness estimators for overlapping return distributions. These estimators extend the variance estimation methods constructed in Bod et. al. (Applied Financial Economics 12:155-158, 2002) and Lo and MacKinlay (Review of Financial Studies 1:41-66, 1988). In addition, they may be used in overlapping return variance or skewness ratio tests as in Charles and Darné (Journal of Economic Surveys 3:503-527, 2009) and Wong (Cardiff Economics Working Papers, 2016). An example using synthetic overlapping returns from a model fit to data from the SPY S&P 500 exchange traded fund is given in order to demonstrate under which circumstances the unbiased correction becomes significant in skewness estimation. Finally, we compare the effect of the HAC weighting schemes of Andrews (Econometrica 53:817-858, 1991) as a function of sample size and overlapping return window length.