In this paper, I evaluate how a centralized market impacts the opacity of an over-the-counter (OTC) market. I show that a competitive centralized market provides an incentive for dealers in the OTC market to reduce opacity, whereas a noncompetitive centralized market does not. Competition between the competitive centralized market and the OTC market forces dealers in the latter to reduce opacity. With the noncompetitive centralized market, opportunities for collusion provide an incentive for dealers to increase opacity. Specifically, the natural monopoly market maker in the noncompetitive centralized market coordinates his spread according to dealers’ spreads to profit from opacity.
{"title":"Reducing Opacity in Over-the-Counter Markets","authors":"Zhuo Zhong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2021226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2021226","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, I evaluate how a centralized market impacts the opacity of an over-the-counter (OTC) market. I show that a competitive centralized market provides an incentive for dealers in the OTC market to reduce opacity, whereas a noncompetitive centralized market does not. Competition between the competitive centralized market and the OTC market forces dealers in the latter to reduce opacity. With the noncompetitive centralized market, opportunities for collusion provide an incentive for dealers to increase opacity. Specifically, the natural monopoly market maker in the noncompetitive centralized market coordinates his spread according to dealers’ spreads to profit from opacity.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117010696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a Gaussian discrete time essentially affine term structure model with long memory state variables. This feature reconciles the strong persistence observed in nominal yields and inflation with the theoretical implications of affine models, especially for long maturities. We characterize in closed-form the dynamic and cross-sectional implications of long memory for our model. We explain how long memory can naturally arise within the term structure of interest rates, providing a theoretical underpinning for our model. Despite the infinite-dimensional structure that long memory implies, we show how to cast the model in state space and estimate it by maximum likelihood. An empirical application of our model is presented.
{"title":"Long Memory Affine Term Structure Models","authors":"A. Golinski, P. Zaffaroni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1787037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787037","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a Gaussian discrete time essentially affine term structure model with long memory state variables. This feature reconciles the strong persistence observed in nominal yields and inflation with the theoretical implications of affine models, especially for long maturities. We characterize in closed-form the dynamic and cross-sectional implications of long memory for our model. We explain how long memory can naturally arise within the term structure of interest rates, providing a theoretical underpinning for our model. Despite the infinite-dimensional structure that long memory implies, we show how to cast the model in state space and estimate it by maximum likelihood. An empirical application of our model is presented.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129493230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The literature shows that the first-day return in an IPO is positively related to the market return leading up to the issue. We propose a new model for this puzzling predictability by adding a public signal to the Benveniste and Spindt (1989) information-based framework. The public signal affects the equilibrium offer price through investors' incentives to truthfully reveal their private information to the underwriter and the probability that the IPO is in high demand. Analyzing 6,300 U.S. IPOs in 1983-2012, the model predictions receive strong support in the subsample of top-tier underwriters, where the order book has been shown to be informative. Moreover, controlling for the incentive effect of the model, the positive relation between the initial return and the market return disappears, effectively resolving the predictability puzzle.
{"title":"Public Information and IPO Initial Returns: Theory and Tests","authors":"E. Bakke, Tore E. Leite, K. Thorburn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1786342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1786342","url":null,"abstract":"The literature shows that the first-day return in an IPO is positively related to the market return leading up to the issue. We propose a new model for this puzzling predictability by adding a public signal to the Benveniste and Spindt (1989) information-based framework. The public signal affects the equilibrium offer price through investors' incentives to truthfully reveal their private information to the underwriter and the probability that the IPO is in high demand. Analyzing 6,300 U.S. IPOs in 1983-2012, the model predictions receive strong support in the subsample of top-tier underwriters, where the order book has been shown to be informative. Moreover, controlling for the incentive effect of the model, the positive relation between the initial return and the market return disappears, effectively resolving the predictability puzzle.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128304923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Market-wide attention-grabbing events — record levels for the Dow and front-page articles about the stock market — predict the trading behavior of investors and, in turn, market returns. Both aggregate and household-level data reveal that high market-wide attention events lead investors to sell their stock holdings dramatically when the level of the stock market is high. Such aggressive selling has a negative impact on market prices, reducing market returns by 19 basis points on days following attention-grabbing events.
{"title":"Market-Wide Attention, Trading, and Stock Returns","authors":"Yu Yuan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1105532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1105532","url":null,"abstract":"Market-wide attention-grabbing events — record levels for the Dow and front-page articles about the stock market — predict the trading behavior of investors and, in turn, market returns. Both aggregate and household-level data reveal that high market-wide attention events lead investors to sell their stock holdings dramatically when the level of the stock market is high. Such aggressive selling has a negative impact on market prices, reducing market returns by 19 basis points on days following attention-grabbing events.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131245309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A new model misspecification measure for linear asset pricing models is proposed for the case where misspecification maps to latency of one of the pricing factors; in this case, the market return. This measure is suited both for testing models that include the market return as a pricing factor in a traditional sense (i.e., whether the chosen model does or does not price a collection of risky assets) and ranking those models (i.e., determining which model performs best). The proposed measure is used in pricing portfolios reflecting the size, value, and momentum premia. The conditional CAPM of Jagannathan and Wang (1996) is found to best the performance of both the simple CAPM and the ICAPM of Petkova (2006). Moreover, it is discovered that winner stocks in a momentum portfolio may have higher market betas than loser stocks.
{"title":"Market Proxies as Factors in Linear Asset Pricing Models: Still Living with the Roll Critique","authors":"Todd Prono","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1364657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1364657","url":null,"abstract":"A new model misspecification measure for linear asset pricing models is proposed for the case where misspecification maps to latency of one of the pricing factors; in this case, the market return. This measure is suited both for testing models that include the market return as a pricing factor in a traditional sense (i.e., whether the chosen model does or does not price a collection of risky assets) and ranking those models (i.e., determining which model performs best). The proposed measure is used in pricing portfolios reflecting the size, value, and momentum premia. The conditional CAPM of Jagannathan and Wang (1996) is found to best the performance of both the simple CAPM and the ICAPM of Petkova (2006). Moreover, it is discovered that winner stocks in a momentum portfolio may have higher market betas than loser stocks.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121910392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Indraneel Chakraborty, Hans A. Holter, S. Stepanchuk
Americans work more than Europeans. Using micro-data from the United States and 17 European countries, we document that women are typically the largest contributors to the cross-country differences in work hours. We also show that there is a negative relation between taxes and annual hours worked, driven by men, and a positive relation between divorce rates and annual hours worked, driven by women. In a calibrated life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, marriage and divorce, we find that the divorce and tax mechanisms together can explain 45% of the variation in labor supply between the United States and the European countries.
{"title":"Marriage Stability, Taxation and Aggregate Labor Supply in the U.S. vs. Europe","authors":"Indraneel Chakraborty, Hans A. Holter, S. Stepanchuk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.971281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.971281","url":null,"abstract":"Americans work more than Europeans. Using micro-data from the United States and 17 European countries, we document that women are typically the largest contributors to the cross-country differences in work hours. We also show that there is a negative relation between taxes and annual hours worked, driven by men, and a positive relation between divorce rates and annual hours worked, driven by women. In a calibrated life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, marriage and divorce, we find that the divorce and tax mechanisms together can explain 45% of the variation in labor supply between the United States and the European countries.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116073938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Obesity provides a potentially informative signal about individuals’ choices and preferences. Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data, we estimate that debt delinquency is 20 percent higher among the obese than the non-obese after controlling for an extensive set of financial and economic credit risk factors. The economic significance of obesity for delinquencies is comparable to that of job displacements. Obesity is particularly informative about delinquencies among those with low credit risk. In terms of channels, we find that the conditional obesity effect is partially mediated through health, but is not attributable to individuals’ attitudes, time and risk preferences, or cognitive skills.
{"title":"Obesity and Household Financial Distress","authors":"Katherine Guthrie, J. Sokolowsky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1786536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1786536","url":null,"abstract":"Obesity provides a potentially informative signal about individuals’ choices and preferences. Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data, we estimate that debt delinquency is 20 percent higher among the obese than the non-obese after controlling for an extensive set of financial and economic credit risk factors. The economic significance of obesity for delinquencies is comparable to that of job displacements. Obesity is particularly informative about delinquencies among those with low credit risk. In terms of channels, we find that the conditional obesity effect is partially mediated through health, but is not attributable to individuals’ attitudes, time and risk preferences, or cognitive skills.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132696096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yoosoon Chang, Yongok Choi, Hwagyun Kim, Joon Y. Park
This paper develops a new framework and statistical tools to analyze stock returns using high frequency data. We consider a continuous-time multi-factor model via a continuous-time multivariate regression model incorporating realistic empirical features, such as persistent stochastic volatilities with leverage effects. We find that conventional regression approach often leads to misleading and inconsistent test results. We overcome this by using samples collected at random intervals, which are set by the clock running inversely proportional to the market volatility. We find that the size factor has difficulty in explaining the size-based portfolios, while the book-to-market factor is a valid pricing factor.
{"title":"Evaluating Factor Pricing Models Using High Frequency Panels","authors":"Yoosoon Chang, Yongok Choi, Hwagyun Kim, Joon Y. Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1756859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1756859","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a new framework and statistical tools to analyze stock returns using high frequency data. We consider a continuous-time multi-factor model via a continuous-time multivariate regression model incorporating realistic empirical features, such as persistent stochastic volatilities with leverage effects. We find that conventional regression approach often leads to misleading and inconsistent test results. We overcome this by using samples collected at random intervals, which are set by the clock running inversely proportional to the market volatility. We find that the size factor has difficulty in explaining the size-based portfolios, while the book-to-market factor is a valid pricing factor.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"177 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114461846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Successful private equity managers have funds that are often oversubscribed and provide persistent abnormal returns. Why do not successful managers increase fund size or fees? We argue that managers want to attract high-quality entrepreneurs, while entrepreneurs want to match with high-ability managers. However, observing fund performance does not allow entrepreneurs to distinguish a manager’s ability from the quality of firms in the fund’s portfolio. As a consequence, a fund manager may devote unobserved effort to select firms, and keep fund size small to limit the cost of effort, hoping to manipulate entrepreneurs’ beliefs about his ability.
{"title":"Private Equity Fund Returns and Performance Persistence","authors":"R. Marquez, Vikram Nanda, M. Yavuz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1364744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1364744","url":null,"abstract":"Successful private equity managers have funds that are often oversubscribed and provide persistent abnormal returns. Why do not successful managers increase fund size or fees? We argue that managers want to attract high-quality entrepreneurs, while entrepreneurs want to match with high-ability managers. However, observing fund performance does not allow entrepreneurs to distinguish a manager’s ability from the quality of firms in the fund’s portfolio. As a consequence, a fund manager may devote unobserved effort to select firms, and keep fund size small to limit the cost of effort, hoping to manipulate entrepreneurs’ beliefs about his ability.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127497399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We hypothesize that analysts with a bullish stock recommendation have an interest in not being subsequently contradicted by negative firm-specific news. As a result, these analysts report downward-biased earnings forecasts so that the company is less likely to experience a negative earnings surprise. Analogously, analysts with a bearish recommendation report upward biased earnings forecasts so that the firm is less likely to experience a strong positive earnings surprise. Consistent with this notion, we find that stock recommendations significantly and positively predict subsequent earnings surprises, as well as narrow beats versus narrow misses. Stock recommendations also predict earnings-announcement-day returns. A long-short portfolio that exploits this predictability earns abnormal returns of 125 basis points per month.
{"title":"'Consistent' Earnings Surprises","authors":"Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, Baixiao Liu, D. Lou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1786087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1786087","url":null,"abstract":"We hypothesize that analysts with a bullish stock recommendation have an interest in not being subsequently contradicted by negative firm-specific news. As a result, these analysts report downward-biased earnings forecasts so that the company is less likely to experience a negative earnings surprise. Analogously, analysts with a bearish recommendation report upward biased earnings forecasts so that the firm is less likely to experience a strong positive earnings surprise. Consistent with this notion, we find that stock recommendations significantly and positively predict subsequent earnings surprises, as well as narrow beats versus narrow misses. Stock recommendations also predict earnings-announcement-day returns. A long-short portfolio that exploits this predictability earns abnormal returns of 125 basis points per month.","PeriodicalId":369344,"journal":{"name":"American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124712320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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