首页 > 最新文献

Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy最新文献

英文 中文
Kex: A Platform For Analysis Of JVM Programs 一个分析JVM程序的平台
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-30-43
A. Abdullin, V. Itsykson
Introduction: Over the last years program analysis methods were widely used for software quality assurance. Different types of program analysis require various levels of program representation, analysis methods, etc. Platforms that provide utilities to implement different types of analysis on their basis become very important because they allow one to simplify the process of development. Purpose: Development of a platform for analysis of JVM programs. Results: In this paper we present Kex, a platform for building program analysis tools for JVM bytecode. Kex provides three abstraction levels. First is Kfg, which is an SSA-based control flow graph representation for bytecode-level analysis and transformation. Second is a symbolic program representation called Predicate State, which consists of first order logic predicates that represent instructions of the original program, constraints, etc. The final level is SMT integration layer for constraint solving. It currently provides an interface for interacting with three SMT solvers. Practical relevance: We have evaluated our platform by considering two prototypes. First prototype is an automatic test generation tool that has participated in SBST 2021 tool competition. Second prototype is a tool for detection of automatic library integration errors. Both prototypes have proved that Kex can be used to implement competitive and powerful program analysis tools.
在过去的几年中,程序分析方法被广泛用于软件质量保证。不同类型的程序分析需要不同层次的程序表示、分析方法等。提供实用工具以在其基础上实现不同类型分析的平台变得非常重要,因为它们允许简化开发过程。目的:开发一个分析JVM程序的平台。结果:在本文中,我们提出了Kex,一个构建JVM字节码程序分析工具的平台。Kex提供了三个抽象级别。首先是Kfg,它是用于字节码级分析和转换的基于ssa的控制流图表示。第二种是称为谓词状态的符号程序表示,它由一阶逻辑谓词组成,这些谓词表示原始程序的指令、约束等。最后一层是用于约束求解的SMT集成层。它目前提供了一个与三个SMT求解器交互的接口。实际相关性:我们通过考虑两个原型来评估我们的平台。第一个原型是参加SBST 2021工具竞赛的自动测试生成工具。第二个原型是用于自动库集成错误检测的工具。两个原型都证明了Kex可以用来实现有竞争力和强大的程序分析工具。
{"title":"Kex: A Platform For Analysis Of JVM Programs","authors":"A. Abdullin, V. Itsykson","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-30-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-30-43","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Over the last years program analysis methods were widely used for software quality assurance. Different types of program analysis require various levels of program representation, analysis methods, etc. Platforms that provide utilities to implement different types of analysis on their basis become very important because they allow one to simplify the process of development. Purpose: Development of a platform for analysis of JVM programs. Results: In this paper we present Kex, a platform for building program analysis tools for JVM bytecode. Kex provides three abstraction levels. First is Kfg, which is an SSA-based control flow graph representation for bytecode-level analysis and transformation. Second is a symbolic program representation called Predicate State, which consists of first order logic predicates that represent instructions of the original program, constraints, etc. The final level is SMT integration layer for constraint solving. It currently provides an interface for interacting with three SMT solvers. Practical relevance: We have evaluated our platform by considering two prototypes. First prototype is an automatic test generation tool that has participated in SBST 2021 tool competition. Second prototype is a tool for detection of automatic library integration errors. Both prototypes have proved that Kex can be used to implement competitive and powerful program analysis tools.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46266774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Method for ensuring information security of a VOIP telephony network with a forecast of an intruder's intrusion strategy 通过预测入侵者的入侵策略来确保VOIP电话网络的信息安全的方法
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-54-67
V. Lipatnikov, A. Shevchenko, V. Kosolapov, Daniil Sokol
Introduction: the development of technologies in the field of information and telecommunications, as well as the unification of networks, and in particular the construction of distributed VoIP telephony networks, allow us to formulate the problem that the known methods of managing the protection of VoIP networks are not effective enough in modern conditions, since they take into account only one side of the information confrontation. Purpose: To develop a method for ensuring the information security of a VoIP telephony network, which allows to increase the probability of VoIP network security by reducing the time required for analyzing the actions of the violator, analyzing and processing risks under the influence of the violator. Results: Based on the proposed structure of an information security management system integrated into a VoIP network, a method for ensuring the information security of a VoIP telephony network under the influence of an intruder has been developed by introducing decision-making support processes in the VoIP network information security management system using intelligent intrusion detection tools distributed across segments. This method allows you to build a graph of events of the intruder's actions, on the basis of which mathematical modeling of MiTM and SPIT attacks on the VoIP telephony network is carried out. As a result of the simulation, the dependence of the successful impact on the internal and external characteristics of attacks is obtained, which is the main one of the developed software, which allows to obtain the values of the probability of security of the VoIP network from the parameters of the intruder's impact for further selection of adequate measures for managing the information security of the VoIP telephony network. The method includes the processes of analyzing the digital stream and determining the parameters of protocols and profiles of intruder attacks. Practical relevance: The developed method provides an opportunity to study issues aimed at the security of the VoIP-telephony network, which is affected by violators.
导言:信息和电信领域技术的发展,以及网络的统一,特别是分布式VoIP电话网络的建设,使我们提出了一个问题,即在现代条件下,已知的管理VoIP网络保护的方法不够有效,因为它们只考虑了信息对抗的一个方面。目的:开发一种确保VoIP电话网络信息安全的方法,通过减少分析违规者行为所需的时间,分析和处理违规者影响下的风险,从而增加VoIP网络安全的概率。结果:基于所提出的集成到VoIP网络中的信息安全管理系统结构,通过在VoIP网络信息安全管理系统中引入决策支持过程,利用分布在各个分段的智能入侵检测工具,开发了一种确保入侵者影响下VoIP电话网络信息安全的方法。此方法允许您构建入侵者行为事件的图表,并在此基础上对VoIP电话网络上的MiTM和SPIT攻击进行数学建模。仿真结果得到了攻击成功影响对攻击内部和外部特征的依赖关系,这是所开发软件的主要特点之一,它可以从入侵者的影响参数中获得VoIP网络安全的概率值,从而为VoIP电话网络的信息安全管理选择适当的措施。该方法包括分析数字流和确定入侵攻击的协议参数和配置文件的过程。实际意义:所开发的方法提供了一个机会来研究针对受违规者影响的voip电话网络的安全问题。
{"title":"Method for ensuring information security of a VOIP telephony network with a forecast of an intruder's intrusion strategy","authors":"V. Lipatnikov, A. Shevchenko, V. Kosolapov, Daniil Sokol","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-54-67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-54-67","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: the development of technologies in the field of information and telecommunications, as well as the unification of networks, and in particular the construction of distributed VoIP telephony networks, allow us to formulate the problem that the known methods of managing the protection of VoIP networks are not effective enough in modern conditions, since they take into account only one side of the information confrontation. Purpose: To develop a method for ensuring the information security of a VoIP telephony network, which allows to increase the probability of VoIP network security by reducing the time required for analyzing the actions of the violator, analyzing and processing risks under the influence of the violator. Results: Based on the proposed structure of an information security management system integrated into a VoIP network, a method for ensuring the information security of a VoIP telephony network under the influence of an intruder has been developed by introducing decision-making support processes in the VoIP network information security management system using intelligent intrusion detection tools distributed across segments. This method allows you to build a graph of events of the intruder's actions, on the basis of which mathematical modeling of MiTM and SPIT attacks on the VoIP telephony network is carried out. As a result of the simulation, the dependence of the successful impact on the internal and external characteristics of attacks is obtained, which is the main one of the developed software, which allows to obtain the values of the probability of security of the VoIP network from the parameters of the intruder's impact for further selection of adequate measures for managing the information security of the VoIP telephony network. The method includes the processes of analyzing the digital stream and determining the parameters of protocols and profiles of intruder attacks. Practical relevance: The developed method provides an opportunity to study issues aimed at the security of the VoIP-telephony network, which is affected by violators.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44091426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Novel Method for Developing Post-quantum Digital Signature Algorithms on Non-commutative Associative Algebras 一种基于非交换关联代数的后量子数字签名算法
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-44-53
N. Moldovyan, D. Moldovyan, A. Moldovyan
Introduction: Development of practical post-quantum signature algorithms is a current challenge in the area of cryptography. Recently, several candidates on post-quantum signature schemes, in which the exponentiation operations in a hidden commutative group contained in a non-commutative algebra is used, were proposed. Search for new mechanisms of using a hidden group, while developing signature schemes resistant to quantum attacks, is of significant practical interest. Purpose: Development of a new method for designing post-quantum signature algorithms on finite non-commutative associative algebras. Results: A novel method for developing digital signature algorithms on non-commutative algebras. A new four-dimensional finite non-commutative associative algebra set over the ground field GF(p) have been proposed as algebraic support of the signature algorithms. To provide a higher performance of the algorithm, in the introduced algebra the vector multiplication is defined by a sparse basis vector multiplication table. Study of the algebra structure has shown that it can be represented as a set of commutative subalgebras of three different types, which intersect exactly in the set of scalar vectors. Using the proposed method and introduced algebra, a new post-quantum signature scheme has been designed. The introduced method is characterized in using one of the elements of the signature (e, S) in form of the four-dimensional vector S that is computed as a masked product of two exponentiated elements G and H of a hidden commutative group: S = B-1GnHmC-1, where non-permutable vectors B and C are masking multipliers; the natural numbers n and m are calculated depending on the signed document M and public key. The pair composes a minimum generator systems of the hidden group. The signature verification equation has the form R = (Y1SZ1)e(Y2SZ2)e2, where pairwise non-permutable vectors Y1, Z1, Y2, and Z2 are element of the public key and natural number e that is computed depending on the value M and the vector R. Practical relevance: Due to sufficiently small size of public key and signature and high, the developed digital signature scheme represents interest as a practical post-quantum signature algorithm. The introduced method is very attractive to develop a post-quantum digital signature standard.
开发实用的后量子签名算法是当前密码学领域的一个挑战。最近,提出了几个候选的后量子签名方案,其中使用了包含在非交换代数中的隐交换群的幂运算。寻找使用隐藏组的新机制,同时开发抗量子攻击的签名方案,具有重要的实际意义。目的:研究有限非交换关联代数上的后量子签名算法。结果:提出了一种基于非交换代数的数字签名算法。提出了一个新的四维有限非交换结合代数集GF(p)作为签名算法的代数支持。为了提供更高的算法性能,在引入的代数中,向量乘法由稀疏基向量乘法表定义。对代数结构的研究表明,它可以表示为三种不同类型的交换子代数的集合,它们在标量向量集合中精确相交。利用所提出的方法和引入的代数,设计了一种新的后量子签名方案。所引入的方法的特点是使用签名(e, S)的一个元素作为四维向量S的形式,该向量S被计算为隐藏交换群的两个指数元素G和H的掩积:S = B- 1gnhmc -1,其中不可变向量B和C是掩乘子;根据签名的文档m和公钥计算自然数n和m。这对组合构成了隐藏群的最小发电机系统。签名验证方程的形式为R = (Y1SZ1)e(Y2SZ2)e2,其中,两两不可变向量Y1、Z1、Y2和Z2是公钥的元素,是根据值M和向量R计算的自然数e。实际意义:由于公钥和签名的大小足够小,并且很高,因此所开发的数字签名方案代表了作为实用的后量子签名算法的兴趣。该方法对制定后量子数字签名标准具有重要的参考价值。
{"title":"A Novel Method for Developing Post-quantum Digital Signature Algorithms on Non-commutative Associative Algebras","authors":"N. Moldovyan, D. Moldovyan, A. Moldovyan","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-44-53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-44-53","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Development of practical post-quantum signature algorithms is a current challenge in the area of cryptography. Recently, several candidates on post-quantum signature schemes, in which the exponentiation operations in a hidden commutative group contained in a non-commutative algebra is used, were proposed. Search for new mechanisms of using a hidden group, while developing signature schemes resistant to quantum attacks, is of significant practical interest. Purpose: Development of a new method for designing post-quantum signature algorithms on finite non-commutative associative algebras. Results: A novel method for developing digital signature algorithms on non-commutative algebras. A new four-dimensional finite non-commutative associative algebra set over the ground field GF(p) have been proposed as algebraic support of the signature algorithms. To provide a higher performance of the algorithm, in the introduced algebra the vector multiplication is defined by a sparse basis vector multiplication table. Study of the algebra structure has shown that it can be represented as a set of commutative subalgebras of three different types, which intersect exactly in the set of scalar vectors. Using the proposed method and introduced algebra, a new post-quantum signature scheme has been designed. The introduced method is characterized in using one of the elements of the signature (e, S) in form of the four-dimensional vector S that is computed as a masked product of two exponentiated elements G and H of a hidden commutative group: S = B-1GnHmC-1, where non-permutable vectors B and C are masking multipliers; the natural numbers n and m are calculated depending on the signed document M and public key. The pair composes a minimum generator systems of the hidden group. The signature verification equation has the form R = (Y1SZ1)e(Y2SZ2)e2, where pairwise non-permutable vectors Y1, Z1, Y2, and Z2 are element of the public key and natural number e that is computed depending on the value M and the vector R. Practical relevance: Due to sufficiently small size of public key and signature and high, the developed digital signature scheme represents interest as a practical post-quantum signature algorithm. The introduced method is very attractive to develop a post-quantum digital signature standard.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41769878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Model of a distributed information system solving tasks with the required probability 分布式信息系统以所需概率求解任务的模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-19-29
V. Gryzunov
Introduction: Distributed in space-time Networks: IIoT and IoT, fog and edge computing tend to penetrate into all spheres of human activity. Enterprises, government, law enforcement agencies, etc. depend on the quality of those technologies. Purpose: To determine the composition of the Network that provides the required uptime probability. Methods: According to the concept of structural and functional synthesis, a distributed Network is presented as an unstable queuing system in which servicing devices are connected and disconnected at an arbitrary point in time. A simulation model of the Network has been built. Results: The state of the Network depends on the number of devices and tasks, their performance and lifetimes. The model does not use these quantities themselves, but their ratios. The values of the uptime probability of the Network are calculated for all possible combinations of ratios. The confidence interval has been calculated with a confidence level of 0.95. From the data obtained, it is clear: 1) what should be the minimum composition of the Network in order to provide the required probability; 2) what probability the current composition of the Network can provide; 3) what flow of tasks is admissible in order to solve tasks with the required probability. It is shown that the dependence of the mean tasks residence time on the Network on the composition of the Network has two inflection points. Using information about these points, the Network Management System forms pools of devices or increases the number of devices. Discussion: It is assumed that the Net has a fully connected structure. Consequently, for practical application, it is necessary: to expand the model with an adjacency matrix describing the connections between nodes, and hence the paths of propagation of tasks over the Network or consider that each node is a relay and is capable of transmitting the task to any other node on the Network. Overhead costs arising from this are taken into account by adjusting the original data. Practical relevance: The results allow minimizing costs in the design and operation of distributed systems, maximizing the likelihood of system uptime under given constraints for resource.
简介:分布于时空网络:IIoT和IoT,雾和边缘计算倾向于渗透到人类活动的各个领域。企业、政府、执法机构等都依赖于这些技术的质量。目的:确定提供所需正常运行时间概率的网络组成。方法:根据结构和功能综合的概念,将分布式网络描述为服务设备在任意时间点连接和断开的不稳定排队系统。建立了该网络的仿真模型。结果:网络的状态取决于设备和任务的数量、它们的性能和寿命。该模型并不使用这些数量本身,而是使用它们的比率。对于所有可能的比率组合,计算网络的正常运行时间概率值。计算置信区间时,置信水平为0.95。从获得的数据可以清楚地看出:1)为了提供所需的概率,网络的最小组成应该是什么;2)当前网络的构成能够提供的概率是多少;3)为了以所需的概率解决任务,允许什么样的任务流。结果表明,平均任务在网络上的停留时间对网络构成的依赖性有两个拐点。利用这些点的信息,网管系统形成设备池或增加设备数量。讨论:假设网络具有完全连接的结构。因此,在实际应用中,有必要:用邻接矩阵来扩展模型,描述节点之间的连接,从而描述任务在网络上的传播路径,或者认为每个节点都是一个中继,能够将任务传输到网络上的任何其他节点。由此产生的间接成本是通过调整原始数据来考虑的。实际相关性:结果允许在分布式系统的设计和操作中最小化成本,在给定资源约束下最大化系统正常运行时间的可能性。
{"title":"Model of a distributed information system solving tasks with the required probability","authors":"V. Gryzunov","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-19-29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-19-29","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Distributed in space-time Networks: IIoT and IoT, fog and edge computing tend to penetrate into all spheres of human activity. Enterprises, government, law enforcement agencies, etc. depend on the quality of those technologies. Purpose: To determine the composition of the Network that provides the required uptime probability. Methods: According to the concept of structural and functional synthesis, a distributed Network is presented as an unstable queuing system in which servicing devices are connected and disconnected at an arbitrary point in time. A simulation model of the Network has been built. Results: The state of the Network depends on the number of devices and tasks, their performance and lifetimes. The model does not use these quantities themselves, but their ratios. The values of the uptime probability of the Network are calculated for all possible combinations of ratios. The confidence interval has been calculated with a confidence level of 0.95. From the data obtained, it is clear: 1) what should be the minimum composition of the Network in order to provide the required probability; 2) what probability the current composition of the Network can provide; 3) what flow of tasks is admissible in order to solve tasks with the required probability. It is shown that the dependence of the mean tasks residence time on the Network on the composition of the Network has two inflection points. Using information about these points, the Network Management System forms pools of devices or increases the number of devices. Discussion: It is assumed that the Net has a fully connected structure. Consequently, for practical application, it is necessary: to expand the model with an adjacency matrix describing the connections between nodes, and hence the paths of propagation of tasks over the Network or consider that each node is a relay and is capable of transmitting the task to any other node on the Network. Overhead costs arising from this are taken into account by adjusting the original data. Practical relevance: The results allow minimizing costs in the design and operation of distributed systems, maximizing the likelihood of system uptime under given constraints for resource.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44828906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Odin and Shadow Cretan matrices accompanying primes and their powers 奥丁和暗影克里特矩阵伴随着质数和他们的力量
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-2-7
N. Balonin, M. Sergeev
Introduction: Cretan matrices – orthogonal matrices, consisting of the elements 1 and –b (real number), are an ideal object for the visual application of finite-dimensional mathematics. These matrices include, in particular, the Hadamard matrices and, with the expansion of the number of elements, the conference matrices. The most convenient research apparatus is to use field theory and multiplicative Galois groups, which is especially important for new types of Cretan matrices. Purpose: To study the symmetries of the Cretan matrices and to investigate two new types of matrices of odd and even orders, distinguished by symmetries, respectively, which differ significantly from the previously known Mersenne, Euler and Fermat matrices. Results: Formulas for levels are given and symmetries of new Cretan matrices: Odin bicycles (with a border) of orders 4t – 1 and 4t – 3 and shadow matrices of orders 4t – 2 and 4t – 4 are described. For odd character sizes equal to prime numbers and powers of primes, the existence of matrix symmetries of special types, doubly symmetric, consisting of skew-symmetric (with respect to the signs of elements) and symmetric cyclic blocks, is proved. It is shown that the previously distinguished Cretan matrices are their special case: Mersenne matrices of orders 4t – 1 and Euler matrices of orders 4t – 2 existing in the absence of symmetry for all selected orders without exception. Practical relevance: Оrthogonal sequences and methods of their effective finding by the theory of finite fields and groups are of direct practical importance for the problems of noise-immune coding, compression and masking of video information.
引言:Cretan矩阵——正交矩阵,由元素1和–b(实数)组成,是有限维数学可视化应用的理想对象。这些矩阵特别包括阿达玛矩阵,并且随着元素数量的扩展,包括会议矩阵。最方便的研究工具是使用场论和乘法伽罗瓦群,这对于新类型的Cretan矩阵尤其重要。目的:研究Cretan矩阵的对称性,并研究两种新的奇阶和偶阶矩阵,它们分别以对称性来区分,它们与以前已知的Mersenne、Euler和Fermat矩阵有很大的不同。结果:给出了能级的公式,并描述了新的Cretan矩阵的对称性:4t-1和4t-3阶的Odin自行车(带边界)和4t-2和4t-4阶的阴影矩阵。对于奇数字符大小等于素数和素数的幂的情况,证明了特殊类型的矩阵对称性的存在性,该矩阵对称性由斜对称(相对于元素的符号)和对称循环块组成。结果表明,先前区分的Cretan矩阵是它们的特例:4t–1阶的Mersenne矩阵和4t–2阶的Euler矩阵无一例外地存在于所有选定阶的不存在对称性的情况下。实际相关性:有限域和群理论的О正交序列及其有效查找方法对视频信息的噪声免疫编码、压缩和屏蔽问题具有直接的实际意义。
{"title":"Odin and Shadow Cretan matrices accompanying primes and their powers","authors":"N. Balonin, M. Sergeev","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-2-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-2-7","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Cretan matrices – orthogonal matrices, consisting of the elements 1 and –b (real number), are an ideal object for the visual application of finite-dimensional mathematics. These matrices include, in particular, the Hadamard matrices and, with the expansion of the number of elements, the conference matrices. The most convenient research apparatus is to use field theory and multiplicative Galois groups, which is especially important for new types of Cretan matrices. Purpose: To study the symmetries of the Cretan matrices and to investigate two new types of matrices of odd and even orders, distinguished by symmetries, respectively, which differ significantly from the previously known Mersenne, Euler and Fermat matrices. Results: Formulas for levels are given and symmetries of new Cretan matrices: Odin bicycles (with a border) of orders 4t – 1 and 4t – 3 and shadow matrices of orders 4t – 2 and 4t – 4 are described. For odd character sizes equal to prime numbers and powers of primes, the existence of matrix symmetries of special types, doubly symmetric, consisting of skew-symmetric (with respect to the signs of elements) and symmetric cyclic blocks, is proved. It is shown that the previously distinguished Cretan matrices are their special case: Mersenne matrices of orders 4t – 1 and Euler matrices of orders 4t – 2 existing in the absence of symmetry for all selected orders without exception. Practical relevance: Оrthogonal sequences and methods of their effective finding by the theory of finite fields and groups are of direct practical importance for the problems of noise-immune coding, compression and masking of video information.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42583159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Determination of the mental state of users of the social network Reddit based on machine learning methods 基于机器学习方法的社交网络Reddit用户心理状态的确定
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-8-18
A. Branitskiy, Yash Sharma, Igor Kotenko, E. Fedorchenko, A. Krasov, I. Ushakov
Introduction: diagnosing mental illness is a complex process that includes conducting dialogue conversations, analyzing the behavior of the subject and passing specialized tests. The successful solution of this problem can be influenced by both the lack of knowledge and experience of the psychologist, and the presence of contradictory or incomplete initial data on the part of the patient. To eliminate this drawback, expert-based or intelligent systems are being developed. Purpose: development of a technique for determining the mental state of social network users. Results: using machine learning methods, a technique has been developed designed to determine the type of a mental state of social network users. The novelty of the proposed technique is in the usage of a two-step text preprocessing procedure and the construction of several sets of features which describe the emotional mood of social network users at the level of the messages published by them. As the initial data, we have used text messages of users of the social network Reddit. There are three stages in the technique: 1) data collection, 2) data preprocessing, 3) post labeling and feature construction. To assess the functioning of a software tool built on the basis of this technique, four indicators were used: accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The best results are demonstrated with a One-vs-Rest ensemble using linear support vector machines as basic solvers. Practical relevance: the investigation results can be used in the construction of auxiliary systems that are aimed at supporting decision-making by psychologists in determining mental disorders.
引言:诊断精神疾病是一个复杂的过程,包括进行对话、分析受试者的行为和通过专业测试。这个问题的成功解决可能受到心理学家缺乏知识和经验,以及患者存在矛盾或不完整的初始数据的影响。为了消除这一缺点,正在开发基于专家的或智能的系统。目的:开发一种确定社交网络用户心理状态的技术。结果:使用机器学习方法,开发了一种技术,用于确定社交网络用户的心理状态类型。所提出的技术的新颖之处在于使用了两步文本预处理程序,并构建了几组特征,这些特征在社交网络用户发布的消息级别上描述了他们的情绪。作为初始数据,我们使用了社交网络Reddit用户的短信。该技术分为三个阶段:1)数据收集,2)数据预处理,3)后标记和特征构建。为了评估基于该技术构建的软件工具的功能,使用了四个指标:准确性、精密度、召回率和F-measure。最佳结果通过使用线性支持向量机作为基本解算器的One vs Rest集成进行了演示。实际相关性:调查结果可用于构建辅助系统,旨在支持心理学家在确定精神障碍时的决策。
{"title":"Determination of the mental state of users of the social network Reddit based on machine learning methods","authors":"A. Branitskiy, Yash Sharma, Igor Kotenko, E. Fedorchenko, A. Krasov, I. Ushakov","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-8-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2022-1-8-18","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: diagnosing mental illness is a complex process that includes conducting dialogue conversations, analyzing the behavior of the subject and passing specialized tests. The successful solution of this problem can be influenced by both the lack of knowledge and experience of the psychologist, and the presence of contradictory or incomplete initial data on the part of the patient. To eliminate this drawback, expert-based or intelligent systems are being developed. Purpose: development of a technique for determining the mental state of social network users. Results: using machine learning methods, a technique has been developed designed to determine the type of a mental state of social network users. The novelty of the proposed technique is in the usage of a two-step text preprocessing procedure and the construction of several sets of features which describe the emotional mood of social network users at the level of the messages published by them. As the initial data, we have used text messages of users of the social network Reddit. There are three stages in the technique: 1) data collection, 2) data preprocessing, 3) post labeling and feature construction. To assess the functioning of a software tool built on the basis of this technique, four indicators were used: accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The best results are demonstrated with a One-vs-Rest ensemble using linear support vector machines as basic solvers. Practical relevance: the investigation results can be used in the construction of auxiliary systems that are aimed at supporting decision-making by psychologists in determining mental disorders.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42832098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the convergence of bumping routes to their limit shapes in the RSK algorithm: numerical experiments RSK算法中碰撞路径收敛到极限形状的数值实验
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-2-9
N. Vassiliev, V. Duzhin, A. Kuzmin
Introduction: The Robinson — Schensted — Knuth (RSK) algorithm transforms a sequence of elements of a linearly ordered set into a pair of Young tableaux P, Q of the same shape. This transformation is based on the process of bumping and inserting elements in tableau P according to special rules. The trajectory formed by all the boxes of the tableau P shifted in the RSK algorithm is called the bumping route. D. Romik and P. Śniady in 2016 obtained an explicit formula for the limit shape of the bumping route, which is determined by its first element. However, the rate of convergence of the bumping routes to the limit shape has not been previously investigated either theoretically or by numerical experiments. Purpose: Carrying out computer experiments to study the dynamics of the bumping routes produced by the RSK algorithm on Young tableaux as their sizes increase. Calculation of statistical means and variances of deviations of bumping routes from their limit shapes in the L2 metric for various values fed to the input of the RSK algorithm. Results: A series of computer experiments have been carried out on Young tableaux, consisting of up to 10 million boxes. We used 300 tableaux of each size. Different input values (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) were added to each such tableau using the RSK algorithm, and the deviations of the bumping routes built from these values from the corresponding limit shapes were calculated. The graphs of the statistical mean values and variances of these deviations were produced. It is noticed that the deviations decrease in proportion to the fourth root of the tableau size n. An approximation of the dependence of the mean values of deviations on n was obtained using the least squares method.
RSK (Robinson - Schensted - Knuth)算法将线性有序集合的元素序列转化为一对形状相同的Young表P, Q。这种变换是基于tableau P中元素按照特殊规则的碰撞和插入过程。由RSK算法中移位的表P的所有方框所形成的轨迹称为碰撞路径。D. Romik和P. Śniady(2016)得到了碰撞路径极限形状的显式公式,该公式由其第一元素决定。然而,碰撞路径收敛到极限形状的速度并没有得到理论或数值实验的研究。目的:通过计算机实验,研究RSK算法在Young tableaux上产生的碰撞路径随其尺寸增大的动态变化。计算碰撞路径在L2度量中相对于其极限形状的偏离的统计平均值和方差,并将不同的值提供给RSK算法的输入。结果:一系列的计算机实验已经在Young的tableaux上进行,其中包括多达1000万个盒子。我们使用了300个不同尺寸的模型。使用RSK算法将不同的输入值(0.1、0.3、0.5、0.7、0.9)添加到每个这样的表格中,并计算由这些值构建的碰撞路径与相应极限形状的偏差。给出了这些偏差的统计平均值和方差曲线图。值得注意的是,偏差与表大小n的四次方根成比例地减小。使用最小二乘法获得了偏差均值与n的依赖关系的近似。
{"title":"On the convergence of bumping routes to their limit shapes in the RSK algorithm: numerical experiments","authors":"N. Vassiliev, V. Duzhin, A. Kuzmin","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-2-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-2-9","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: The Robinson — Schensted — Knuth (RSK) algorithm transforms a sequence of elements of a linearly ordered set into a pair of Young tableaux P, Q of the same shape. This transformation is based on the process of bumping and inserting elements in tableau P according to special rules. The trajectory formed by all the boxes of the tableau P shifted in the RSK algorithm is called the bumping route. D. Romik and P. Śniady in 2016 obtained an explicit formula for the limit shape of the bumping route, which is determined by its first element. However, the rate of convergence of the bumping routes to the limit shape has not been previously investigated either theoretically or by numerical experiments. Purpose: Carrying out computer experiments to study the dynamics of the bumping routes produced by the RSK algorithm on Young tableaux as their sizes increase. Calculation of statistical means and variances of deviations of bumping routes from their limit shapes in the L2 metric for various values fed to the input of the RSK algorithm. Results: A series of computer experiments have been carried out on Young tableaux, consisting of up to 10 million boxes. We used 300 tableaux of each size. Different input values (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) were added to each such tableau using the RSK algorithm, and the deviations of the bumping routes built from these values from the corresponding limit shapes were calculated. The graphs of the statistical mean values and variances of these deviations were produced. It is noticed that the deviations decrease in proportion to the fourth root of the tableau size n. An approximation of the dependence of the mean values of deviations on n was obtained using the least squares method.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45768928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analytical review of models and methods for automatic recognition of gestures and sign languages 手势和手语自动识别模型和方法的分析综述
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-10-20
D. Ryumin, I. Kagirov, A. Axyonov, Alexey Karpov
Introduction: Currently, the recognition of gestures and sign languages is one of the most intensively developing areas in computer vision and applied linguistics. The results of current investigations are applied in a wide range of areas, from sign language translation to gesture-based interfaces. In that regard, various systems and methods for the analysis of gestural data are being developed. Purpose: A detailed review of methods and a comparative analysis of current approaches in automatic recognition of gestures and sign languages. Results: The main gesture recognition problems are the following: detection of articulators (mainly hands), pose estimation and segmentation of gestures in the flow of speech. The authors conclude that the use of two-stream convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures is generally promising for efficient extraction and processing of spatial and temporal features, thus solving the problem of dynamic gestures and coarticulations. This solution, however, heavily depends on the quality and availability of data sets. Practical relevance: This review can be considered a contribution to the study of rapidly developing sign language recognition, irrespective to particular natural sign languages. The results of the work can be used in the development of software systems for automatic gesture and sign language recognition.
目前,手势和手语识别是计算机视觉和应用语言学中发展最为活跃的领域之一。目前的研究结果应用于广泛的领域,从手语翻译到基于手势的界面。在这方面,正在开发用于分析手势数据的各种系统和方法。目的:对手势和手语的自动识别方法进行详细的综述和比较分析。结果:手势识别的主要问题有:发音器(主要是手)的检测、姿态估计和语音流中手势的分割。作者得出结论,使用双流卷积和循环神经网络架构通常有望有效地提取和处理时空特征,从而解决动态手势和协同发音问题。然而,这个解决方案在很大程度上依赖于数据集的质量和可用性。实际意义:这篇综述可以被认为是对快速发展的手语识别研究的贡献,而不考虑特定的自然手语。研究结果可用于手势和手语自动识别软件系统的开发。
{"title":"Analytical review of models and methods for automatic recognition of gestures and sign languages","authors":"D. Ryumin, I. Kagirov, A. Axyonov, Alexey Karpov","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-10-20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-10-20","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Currently, the recognition of gestures and sign languages is one of the most intensively developing areas in computer vision and applied linguistics. The results of current investigations are applied in a wide range of areas, from sign language translation to gesture-based interfaces. In that regard, various systems and methods for the analysis of gestural data are being developed. Purpose: A detailed review of methods and a comparative analysis of current approaches in automatic recognition of gestures and sign languages. Results: The main gesture recognition problems are the following: detection of articulators (mainly hands), pose estimation and segmentation of gestures in the flow of speech. The authors conclude that the use of two-stream convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures is generally promising for efficient extraction and processing of spatial and temporal features, thus solving the problem of dynamic gestures and coarticulations. This solution, however, heavily depends on the quality and availability of data sets. Practical relevance: This review can be considered a contribution to the study of rapidly developing sign language recognition, irrespective to particular natural sign languages. The results of the work can be used in the development of software systems for automatic gesture and sign language recognition.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43392439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intrusion detection in internet of things networks based on machine learning methods 基于机器学习方法的物联网网络入侵检测
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-42-52
T. Tatarnikova, P. Bogdanov
Introduction: The growing amount of digital data generated, among others, by smart devices of the Internet of Things makes it important to study the application of machine learning methods to the detection of network traffic anomalies, namely the presence of network attacks. Purpose: To propose a unified approach to detecting attacks at different levels of IoT network architecture, based on machine learning methods. Results: It was shown that at the wireless sensor network level, attack detection is associated with the detection of anomalous behavior of IoT devices, when the deviation of an IoT device behavior from its profile exceeds a predetermined level. Smart IoT devices are profiled on the basis of statistical characteristics, such as the intensity and duration of packet transmission, the proportion of retransmitted packets, etc. At the level of a local or global wired IoT network, data is aggregated and then analyzed using machine learning methods. Trained classifiers can become a part of a network attack detection system, making decisions about compromising a node on the fly. Models of classifiers of network attacks were experimentally selected both at the level of a wireless sensor network and at the level of a local or global wired network. The best results in terms of completeness and accuracy estimates are demonstrated by the random forest method for a wired local and/or global network and by all the considered methods for a wireless sensor network. Practical relevance: The proposed models of classifiers can be used for developing intrusion detection systems in IoT networks.
引言:物联网智能设备生成的数字数据数量不断增加,因此研究机器学习方法在检测网络流量异常(即网络攻击的存在)方面的应用变得非常重要。目的:基于机器学习方法,提出一种在物联网网络架构的不同级别检测攻击的统一方法。结果:研究表明,在无线传感器网络层面,当物联网设备的行为与其配置文件的偏差超过预定水平时,攻击检测与物联网设备异常行为的检测相关。智能物联网设备是根据统计特征进行分析的,如数据包传输的强度和持续时间、重传数据包的比例等。在本地或全球有线物联网网络层面,数据被聚合,然后使用机器学习方法进行分析。经过训练的分类器可以成为网络攻击检测系统的一部分,在运行中决定是否会危及节点。在无线传感器网络级别和本地或全局有线网络级别上都实验性地选择了网络攻击的分类器模型。有线本地和/或全局网络的随机森林方法以及无线传感器网络的所有考虑的方法证明了在完整性和准确性估计方面的最佳结果。实际相关性:所提出的分类器模型可用于开发物联网网络中的入侵检测系统。
{"title":"Intrusion detection in internet of things networks based on machine learning methods","authors":"T. Tatarnikova, P. Bogdanov","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-42-52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-42-52","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: The growing amount of digital data generated, among others, by smart devices of the Internet of Things makes it important to study the application of machine learning methods to the detection of network traffic anomalies, namely the presence of network attacks. Purpose: To propose a unified approach to detecting attacks at different levels of IoT network architecture, based on machine learning methods. Results: It was shown that at the wireless sensor network level, attack detection is associated with the detection of anomalous behavior of IoT devices, when the deviation of an IoT device behavior from its profile exceeds a predetermined level. Smart IoT devices are profiled on the basis of statistical characteristics, such as the intensity and duration of packet transmission, the proportion of retransmitted packets, etc. At the level of a local or global wired IoT network, data is aggregated and then analyzed using machine learning methods. Trained classifiers can become a part of a network attack detection system, making decisions about compromising a node on the fly. Models of classifiers of network attacks were experimentally selected both at the level of a wireless sensor network and at the level of a local or global wired network. The best results in terms of completeness and accuracy estimates are demonstrated by the random forest method for a wired local and/or global network and by all the considered methods for a wireless sensor network. Practical relevance: The proposed models of classifiers can be used for developing intrusion detection systems in IoT networks.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44176883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Prediction of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Russia based on simple mathematical models of epidemics 基于流行简单数学模型的俄罗斯COVID-19大流行动态预测
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-31-41
D. Tomchin, Maria Sitchikhina, M. Ananyevskiy, T. Sventsitskaya, A. Fradkov
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic which began in 2020 and has taken more than five million lives has become a threat to the very existence of mankind. Therefore, predicting the spread of COVID-19 in each individual country is a very urgent task. The complexity of its solution is due to the requirement for fast processing of large amounts of data and the fact that the data are mostly inaccurate and do not have the statistical properties necessary for the successful application of statistical methods. Therefore, it seems important to develop simple forecasting methods based on classical simple models of epidemiology which are only weakly sensitive to data inaccuracies. It is also important to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in relation to the incidence data in Russia. Purpose: Obtaining forecast data based on classical simple models of epidemics, namely SIR and SEIR. Methods: For discrete versions of SIR and SEIR models, it is proposed to estimate the parameters of the models using a reduced version of the least squares method, and apply a scenario approach to the forecasting. The simplicity and a small number of parameters are the advantages of SIR and SEIR models, which is very important in the context of a lack of numerical input data and structural incompleteness of the models. Results: A forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Russia has been built based on published data on the incidence from March 10 to April 20, 2020, and then, selectively, according to October 2020 data and October 2021 data. The results of the comparison between SIR and SEIR forecasts are presented. The same method was used to construct and present forecasts based on morbidity data in the fall of 2020 and in the fall of 2021 for Russia and for St. Petersburg. To set the parameters of the models which are difficult to determine from the official data, a scenario approach is used: the dynamics of the epidemic is analyzed for several possible values of the parameters. Practical relevance: The results obtained show that the proposed method predicts well the time of the onset of the peak incidence, despite the inaccuracy of the initial data.
简介:始于2020年的新冠肺炎大流行夺走了500多万人的生命,已成为对人类生存的威胁。因此,预测新冠肺炎在每个国家的传播是一项非常紧迫的任务。其解决方案的复杂性是由于需要快速处理大量数据,而且数据大多不准确,不具备成功应用统计方法所需的统计特性。因此,在经典的简单流行病学模型的基础上开发简单的预测方法似乎很重要,这些模型对数据不准确的敏感性很弱。根据俄罗斯的发病率数据证明该方法的可行性也很重要。目的:基于经典的流行病简单模型,即SIR和SEIR,获得预测数据。方法:对于SIR和SEIR模型的离散版本,建议使用最小二乘法的简化版本来估计模型的参数,并将情景方法应用于预测。SIR和SEIR模型的优点是简单性和参数数量少,这在缺乏数字输入数据和模型结构不完整的情况下非常重要。结果:根据已公布的2020年3月10日至4月20日的发病率数据,然后根据2020年10月的数据和2021年10月数据,有选择地对新冠肺炎在俄罗斯的传播进行了预测。给出了SIR和SEIR预测之间的比较结果。同样的方法也用于根据俄罗斯和圣彼得堡2020年秋季和2021年秋季的发病率数据构建和呈现预测。为了设置难以从官方数据中确定的模型参数,使用了一种情景方法:分析流行病的动态,寻找几个可能的参数值。实际相关性:所获得的结果表明,尽管初始数据不准确,但所提出的方法很好地预测了峰值发生率的开始时间。
{"title":"Prediction of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Russia based on simple mathematical models of epidemics","authors":"D. Tomchin, Maria Sitchikhina, M. Ananyevskiy, T. Sventsitskaya, A. Fradkov","doi":"10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-31-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31799/1684-8853-2021-6-31-41","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic which began in 2020 and has taken more than five million lives has become a threat to the very existence of mankind. Therefore, predicting the spread of COVID-19 in each individual country is a very urgent task. The complexity of its solution is due to the requirement for fast processing of large amounts of data and the fact that the data are mostly inaccurate and do not have the statistical properties necessary for the successful application of statistical methods. Therefore, it seems important to develop simple forecasting methods based on classical simple models of epidemiology which are only weakly sensitive to data inaccuracies. It is also important to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in relation to the incidence data in Russia. Purpose: Obtaining forecast data based on classical simple models of epidemics, namely SIR and SEIR. Methods: For discrete versions of SIR and SEIR models, it is proposed to estimate the parameters of the models using a reduced version of the least squares method, and apply a scenario approach to the forecasting. The simplicity and a small number of parameters are the advantages of SIR and SEIR models, which is very important in the context of a lack of numerical input data and structural incompleteness of the models. Results: A forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Russia has been built based on published data on the incidence from March 10 to April 20, 2020, and then, selectively, according to October 2020 data and October 2021 data. The results of the comparison between SIR and SEIR forecasts are presented. The same method was used to construct and present forecasts based on morbidity data in the fall of 2020 and in the fall of 2021 for Russia and for St. Petersburg. To set the parameters of the models which are difficult to determine from the official data, a scenario approach is used: the dynamics of the epidemic is analyzed for several possible values of the parameters. Practical relevance: The results obtained show that the proposed method predicts well the time of the onset of the peak incidence, despite the inaccuracy of the initial data.","PeriodicalId":36977,"journal":{"name":"Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46764784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
期刊
Informatsionno-Upravliaiushchie Sistemy
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1