In this article, we analyse the influence of coalition statements on the bargaining strength of the parties after the elections. More specifically, we calculate the distribution of power in German government coalitions during the period of 1990 through 2009, based on the parties’ coalition statements that were made in advance of these elections and the seat distribution in the parliament after the election. We account for seven coalition statements scenarios. To calculate the voting power of the parties within the government coalitions, we apply the ? power index (Casajus 2009).
{"title":"Coalition Statements and the Distribution of Power in German Government Coalitions: 1990–2009","authors":"Tobias Hiller","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.3.145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.3.145","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we analyse the influence of coalition statements on the bargaining strength of the parties after the elections. More specifically, we calculate the distribution of power in German government coalitions during the period of 1990 through 2009, based on the parties’ coalition statements that were made in advance of these elections and the seat distribution in the parliament after the election. We account for seven coalition statements scenarios. To calculate the voting power of the parties within the government coalitions, we apply the ? power index (Casajus 2009).","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"145-157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate on output for sixteen transition economies using cointegration tests with quarterly data. In addition, impulse response and variance decomposition analyses are also used to identify the significance of the real effective exchange rate, money supply, fiscal policy, and foreign income on output. The results suggest that devaluation is expansionary in the long-run in Estonia, Georgia, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Slovakia; contractionary in Latvia, Lithuania, Armenia, Moldova, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia; and has no long-run effect on output in Bulgaria. In addition, monetary and fiscal policies and foreign income seem to be important determinants of the long-run level of output in most of the cases.
{"title":"Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary in Transition Economies","authors":"Salah A. Nusair","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.3.215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.3.215","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate on output for sixteen transition economies using cointegration tests with quarterly data. In addition, impulse response and variance decomposition analyses are also used to identify the significance of the real effective exchange rate, money supply, fiscal policy, and foreign income on output. The results suggest that devaluation is expansionary in the long-run in Estonia, Georgia, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Slovakia; contractionary in Latvia, Lithuania, Armenia, Moldova, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia; and has no long-run effect on output in Bulgaria. In addition, monetary and fiscal policies and foreign income seem to be important determinants of the long-run level of output in most of the cases.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"215-251"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
European GDP is still below its pre-crisis level. The unemployment rate is higher than before the crisis and higher than in the US. Europe has a current account surplus, lower debt relative to GDP than the US, lower differences between high and low incomes, less poverty and better vocational training and ecological performance. But absence of growth endangers also social and ecological ambitions. Four preconditions for restarting growth are emphasised: better governance, a new strategy for the South, a systemic industrial policy and to make use of the high growth of the neighbour countries. Europe offers- and should go along this path with more determination- an attractive socio economic model emphasizing beyond-GDP goals not prioritized in the US and Asian model. We redefine competitiveness as “ability of a country to deliver Beyond GDP-goals”, thus downgrading the current pre occupation of economic policy with cost cutting and show that Europe’s competitiveness relative to the US is much better if social and ecological goals are included in the evaluation instead of focussing on labour and energy costs only.
{"title":"Restarting Growth in Europe","authors":"K. Aiginger, C. Glocker","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.3.179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.3.179","url":null,"abstract":"European GDP is still below its pre-crisis level. The unemployment rate is higher than before the crisis and higher than in the US. Europe has a current account surplus, lower debt relative to GDP than the US, lower differences between high and low incomes, less poverty and better vocational training and ecological performance. But absence of growth endangers also social and ecological ambitions. Four preconditions for restarting growth are emphasised: better governance, a new strategy for the South, a systemic industrial policy and to make use of the high growth of the neighbour countries. Europe offers- and should go along this path with more determination- an attractive socio economic model emphasizing beyond-GDP goals not prioritized in the US and Asian model. We redefine competitiveness as “ability of a country to deliver Beyond GDP-goals”, thus downgrading the current pre occupation of economic policy with cost cutting and show that Europe’s competitiveness relative to the US is much better if social and ecological goals are included in the evaluation instead of focussing on labour and energy costs only.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"179-214"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper estimates a search and matching model using Bayesian methods. We deviate from the existing literature in two ways. First, we provide a cross-country analysis by estimating the model for the United States and Australia. We document differences in structural parameters and key driving forces of business cycle fluctuations. Second, we find that staggered wages rather than sticky prices matter to fit the data.
{"title":"Staggered Wages, Sticky Prices, and Labor Market Dynamics in Matching Models","authors":"Janet M. Neugebauer, Dennis Wesselbaum","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.3.159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.3.159","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates a search and matching model using Bayesian methods. We deviate from the existing literature in two ways. First, we provide a cross-country analysis by estimating the model for the United States and Australia. We document differences in structural parameters and key driving forces of business cycle fluctuations. Second, we find that staggered wages rather than sticky prices matter to fit the data.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"159-177"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Credibility is an essential factor in the success of a central bank's monetary policy measures because individuals' decisions depend on expectations about the future (e.g., future inflation rates). A more credible central bank can influence expectations much better. Furthermore, an independent central bank is in need of some trust from the people due to its lack of direct democratic legitimacy. In order to fight the Great Recession and the Euro crisis the ECB took far-reaching measures which are (at least) on the fringes of its mandate. The article analyses whether the ECB's credibility and trust in this institution have suffered from its policy measures. To sum up, credibility—measured by inflation expectations—has not decreased in the aftermath of the financial crisis. However, there is a large decrease in trust in the ECB among European citizens. Lastly, the article discusses how credibility and trust could be strengthened.
{"title":"ECB: Credibility at Risk?","authors":"C. Weber","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.2.123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.2.123","url":null,"abstract":"Credibility is an essential factor in the success of a central bank's monetary policy measures because individuals' decisions depend on expectations about the future (e.g., future inflation rates). A more credible central bank can influence expectations much better. Furthermore, an independent central bank is in need of some trust from the people due to its lack of direct democratic legitimacy. In order to fight the Great Recession and the Euro crisis the ECB took far-reaching measures which are (at least) on the fringes of its mandate. The article analyses whether the ECB's credibility and trust in this institution have suffered from its policy measures. To sum up, credibility—measured by inflation expectations—has not decreased in the aftermath of the financial crisis. However, there is a large decrease in trust in the ECB among European citizens. Lastly, the article discusses how credibility and trust could be strengthened.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"4 1","pages":"123-143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Financial integration, in practice measured as a convergence of indicators, for example prices, on different markets like money, credit or government bond markets and is a goal which European policy makers intend to reach. Yet, the process was interrupted and even reversed by the global financial crisis. Insofar the crisis made clear that pure convergence wasn't just right. In this context we propose a different approach resulting in workable competition and economic growth: local banking structures. Since overly integrated markets bear huge downside risks, we show how the German banking market, mainly because of the business model of savings banks, overcame the crisis very quickly and grants much better access of external finance to small and medium-sized firms in an international perspective.
{"title":"Do We Need More Financial Integration","authors":"Karl-Peter Schackmann-Fallis","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.2.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.2.115","url":null,"abstract":"Financial integration, in practice measured as a convergence of indicators, for example prices, on different markets like money, credit or government bond markets and is a goal which European policy makers intend to reach. Yet, the process was interrupted and even reversed by the global financial crisis. Insofar the crisis made clear that pure convergence wasn't just right. In this context we propose a different approach resulting in workable competition and economic growth: local banking structures. Since overly integrated markets bear huge downside risks, we show how the German banking market, mainly because of the business model of savings banks, overcame the crisis very quickly and grants much better access of external finance to small and medium-sized firms in an international perspective.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"115-121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Enhanced cross-country risk-sharing is required in EMU in order to lower the risk of new balance of payment crises. However, it would be ill-advised to rely on mutualisation mechanisms through fiscal transfers only, as opposed to market-based mechanisms through cross-border ownership of equity capital. In the pre-crisis period, the eurozone has been suffering from “mal-integration”: flows from the core to the periphery took quasi-exclusively the form of debt rather than direct and equity investment. In order to promote a genuine financial integration within the eurozone, this paper makes two proposals. First, the European official sector should help restructuring the foreign liabilities of peripheral countries by a sort of debt-to-equity conversion. This could be done by establishing a European agency, in charge of purchasing, restructuring and privatizing state-owned assets. Second, a greater share of the German external surplus should be recycled through equity investment into the rest of the eurozone. We suggest the creation of a long term investment vehicle funded by both private sector and government savings (or benefiting from a government guarantee), and designed to take equity stakes in periphery economies.
{"title":"Eurozone: Promoting Risk-Sharing Through Cross-Border Ownership of Equity Capital","authors":"O. Garnier","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.2.107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.2.107","url":null,"abstract":"Enhanced cross-country risk-sharing is required in EMU in order to lower the risk of new balance of payment crises. However, it would be ill-advised to rely on mutualisation mechanisms through fiscal transfers only, as opposed to market-based mechanisms through cross-border ownership of equity capital. In the pre-crisis period, the eurozone has been suffering from “mal-integration”: flows from the core to the periphery took quasi-exclusively the form of debt rather than direct and equity investment. In order to promote a genuine financial integration within the eurozone, this paper makes two proposals. First, the European official sector should help restructuring the foreign liabilities of peripheral countries by a sort of debt-to-equity conversion. This could be done by establishing a European agency, in charge of purchasing, restructuring and privatizing state-owned assets. Second, a greater share of the German external surplus should be recycled through equity investment into the rest of the eurozone. We suggest the creation of a long term investment vehicle funded by both private sector and government savings (or benefiting from a government guarantee), and designed to take equity stakes in periphery economies.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"107-113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using over a half century of data, this empirical study adopts a simple loanable funds to investigate the impact of the federal budget deficits in the U.S. on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes. Three estimates using annual data for three different time periods (1960–2013, 1971–2013, 1980–2013) are provided; in addition, as a de facto modest test of robustness, one additional estimate using quarterly data for the period 1960.1 through 2013.4 is also provided. In each of the four empirical analyses, an autoregressive 2SLS estimate finds that the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes is an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds, the ex post real interest rate yield on three year Treasury notes, and the ex post real interest rate yield on high grade municipal bonds. This exploratory analysis also finds consistent evidence that federal budget deficit (relative to the GDP level) exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes, a finding compatible in principle with a number of earlier studies of shorter time periods.
{"title":"Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960–2013","authors":"R. Cebula","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.1.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.1.23","url":null,"abstract":"Using over a half century of data, this empirical study adopts a simple loanable funds to investigate the impact of the federal budget deficits in the U.S. on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes. Three estimates using annual data for three different time periods (1960–2013, 1971–2013, 1980–2013) are provided; in addition, as a de facto modest test of robustness, one additional estimate using quarterly data for the period 1960.1 through 2013.4 is also provided. In each of the four empirical analyses, an autoregressive 2SLS estimate finds that the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year U.S. Treasury notes is an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds, the ex post real interest rate yield on three year Treasury notes, and the ex post real interest rate yield on high grade municipal bonds. This exploratory analysis also finds consistent evidence that federal budget deficit (relative to the GDP level) exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes, a finding compatible in principle with a number of earlier studies of shorter time periods.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"135 1","pages":"23-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Much research has been conducted on whether events in stock markets affect asset markets, or vice versa. Since causality has been shown to run in either direction (and sometimes both simultaneously), this relationship must be tested empirically on a case-by-case basis. This study does so, using a monthly index of Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) rather than simple appreciations or depreciations, for ten emerging markets. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, which capture regional and global effects, show that asset-market shocks often (but not always) spill over to EMP. Causality often runs the opposite direction as well. Some countries, such as Thailand and Poland, serve as important sources of regional shocks, while others, such as Croatia, are more susceptible to them. While it is often assumed that events in U.S. markets easily spill over to the rest of the world, declines in U.S. stock prices lead to lower emerging market stock prices or higher EMP in relatively few cases.
{"title":"Exchange Market Pressure and Stock-Price Spillovers in Emerging Markets","authors":"S. Hegerty","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.60.1.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.60.1.41","url":null,"abstract":"Much research has been conducted on whether events in stock markets affect asset markets, or vice versa. Since causality has been shown to run in either direction (and sometimes both simultaneously), this relationship must be tested empirically on a case-by-case basis. This study does so, using a monthly index of Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) rather than simple appreciations or depreciations, for ten emerging markets. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, which capture regional and global effects, show that asset-market shocks often (but not always) spill over to EMP. Causality often runs the opposite direction as well. Some countries, such as Thailand and Poland, serve as important sources of regional shocks, while others, such as Croatia, are more susceptible to them. While it is often assumed that events in U.S. markets easily spill over to the rest of the world, declines in U.S. stock prices lead to lower emerging market stock prices or higher EMP in relatively few cases.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"60 1","pages":"41-74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Existing approaches to the meta-frontier estimation are largely based on the linear programming technique, which does not hinge on any statistical underpinnings. We suggest estimating meta-frontiers by constrained maximum likelihood subject to the constraints that specify the way in which the estimated meta-frontier overarches the individual group frontiers. We present a methodology that allows one to either estimate meta-frontiers using the conventional set of constraints that guarantees overarching at the observed combinations of production inputs, or to specify a range of inputs within which such overarching will hold. In either case the estimated meta-frontier coefficients allow for the statistical inference that is not straightforward in case of the linear programming estimation. We apply our methodology to the worldi¯s FAO agricultural data and find similar estimates of the meta-frontier parameters in case of the same set of constraints. On the contrary, the parameter estimates differ a lot between different sets of constraints.
{"title":"The Estimation of Meta-Frontiers by Constrained Maximum Likelihood","authors":"Alexandre Repkine","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.59.3.253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.59.3.253","url":null,"abstract":"Existing approaches to the meta-frontier estimation are largely based on the linear programming technique, which does not hinge on any statistical underpinnings. We suggest estimating meta-frontiers by constrained maximum likelihood subject to the constraints that specify the way in which the estimated meta-frontier overarches the individual group frontiers. We present a methodology that allows one to either estimate meta-frontiers using the conventional set of constraints that guarantees overarching at the observed combinations of production inputs, or to specify a range of inputs within which such overarching will hold. In either case the estimated meta-frontier coefficients allow for the statistical inference that is not straightforward in case of the linear programming estimation. We apply our methodology to the worldi¯s FAO agricultural data and find similar estimates of the meta-frontier parameters in case of the same set of constraints. On the contrary, the parameter estimates differ a lot between different sets of constraints.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"59 1","pages":"253-273"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70166269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：