Dieter Gerdesmeier, Hans-Eggert Reimers, Barbara Roffia
It is a well-established fact in monetary economics that money and credit developments may affect consumer price inflation directly as well as indirectly via changes in asset prices, while at the same time asset price fluctuations can independently affect monetary and real developments. This has led to proposals to assign a more prominent role to asset prices in central bank’s toolkit of leading indicators for future developments in consumer price inflation. In this study, we examine, in the context of reduced-form inflation equations, the importance of different variables (including standard explanatory variables) as well as some specific asset price variables (i.e., the changes in housing and equity prices, a yield spread and oil prices). Against this background, we make use of a panel approach, covering data for 17 industrialised countries and the euro area. Three main results emerge out of our analysis. First, a standard framework explaining current inflation by (lagged) developments in inflation, the output gap, short-term interest rates, oil prices, house and stock prices and the exchange rate seems to perform quite well, although the explanatory power of the equations decreases with the length of the time horizon. Second, as regards the role of asset prices, it can be shown that house price movements seem to provide more useful information on future consumer price developments than movements in equity prices. Finally, the results of the analysis show that broad monetary developments become more relevant as the time horizon lengthens. By contrast, equity prices and the yield spread seem to be somewhat less informative.
{"title":"Asset Prices and Consumer Prices: Exploring the Linkages","authors":"Dieter Gerdesmeier, Hans-Eggert Reimers, Barbara Roffia","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.3.169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.3.169","url":null,"abstract":"It is a well-established fact in monetary economics that money and credit developments may affect consumer price inflation directly as well as indirectly via changes in asset prices, while at the same time asset price fluctuations can independently affect monetary and real developments. This has led to proposals to assign a more prominent role to asset prices in central bank’s toolkit of leading indicators for future developments in consumer price inflation. In this study, we examine, in the context of reduced-form inflation equations, the importance of different variables (including standard explanatory variables) as well as some specific asset price variables (i.e., the changes in housing and equity prices, a yield spread and oil prices). Against this background, we make use of a panel approach, covering data for 17 industrialised countries and the euro area. Three main results emerge out of our analysis. First, a standard framework explaining current inflation by (lagged) developments in inflation, the output gap, short-term interest rates, oil prices, house and stock prices and the exchange rate seems to perform quite well, although the explanatory power of the equations decreases with the length of the time horizon. Second, as regards the role of asset prices, it can be shown that house price movements seem to provide more useful information on future consumer price developments than movements in equity prices. Finally, the results of the analysis show that broad monetary developments become more relevant as the time horizon lengthens. By contrast, equity prices and the yield spread seem to be somewhat less informative.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"16 1","pages":"169-186"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70168079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper makes two contributions to the research on colonialism, slave trade, and Africa’s current underdevelopment. First, it proposes empirical evidence suggesting that both the cultural channel and the institutional channel, which are discussed in the literature, are not enough to fully explain the negative effect of colonialism and slave trade on current economic performance. Second, it contributes to the theoretical and empirical understanding by elaborating on two possible additional channels: the accumulation of capital channel and the demographic channel.
{"title":"Do Colonialism and Slave Trade Still Affect Modern Economic Performance","authors":"Yaron Zelekha","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.2.147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.2.147","url":null,"abstract":"This paper makes two contributions to the research on colonialism, slave trade, and Africa’s current underdevelopment. First, it proposes empirical evidence suggesting that both the cultural channel and the institutional channel, which are discussed in the literature, are not enough to fully explain the negative effect of colonialism and slave trade on current economic performance. Second, it contributes to the theoretical and empirical understanding by elaborating on two possible additional channels: the accumulation of capital channel and the demographic channel.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"147-168"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Agiomirgianakis, T. Papadogonas, G. Sfakianakis
This paper aims at identifying the determinants of export activity of EU countries under conditions of economic crisis. Traditional variables (such as price competitiveness and external demand) are considered; however, new elements are also introduced, including the effect of shrinking domestic demand that motivates producers to target international markets and also the “value added” of the implemented structural reforms that may induce investment in export-oriented firms (by affecting the business environment). Due to these new elements, we focus our analysis onto EU countries that were affected more by the crisis or even had to appeal for ad-hoc external financing of their borrowing requirements (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain). Our analysis is conducted using panel data covering selected EU countries for a period both prior and following the outbreak of the crisis. In this context, an explanation is offered for the rebound of Greek exports in the aftermath of the internal devaluation policy mix implemented since 2010. More generally, and based on the findings of the paper, an intuition is offered on whether and how exports could serve as a growth driver for the aforementioned countries while the overall effect of structural reforms on exports is evaluated accordingly.
{"title":"The Determinants of Exports Revisited: Lessons from the Recent Crisis","authors":"G. Agiomirgianakis, T. Papadogonas, G. Sfakianakis","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.2.107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.2.107","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at identifying the determinants of export activity of EU countries under conditions of economic crisis. Traditional variables (such as price competitiveness and external demand) are considered; however, new elements are also introduced, including the effect of shrinking domestic demand that motivates producers to target international markets and also the “value added” of the implemented structural reforms that may induce investment in export-oriented firms (by affecting the business environment). Due to these new elements, we focus our analysis onto EU countries that were affected more by the crisis or even had to appeal for ad-hoc external financing of their borrowing requirements (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain). Our analysis is conducted using panel data covering selected EU countries for a period both prior and following the outbreak of the crisis. In this context, an explanation is offered for the rebound of Greek exports in the aftermath of the internal devaluation policy mix implemented since 2010. More generally, and based on the findings of the paper, an intuition is offered on whether and how exports could serve as a growth driver for the aforementioned countries while the overall effect of structural reforms on exports is evaluated accordingly.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"107-115"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study attempts to test the long-run equilibrium relationships between the flows of workers’ remittances, andreal investment.Using Jordanian data, over the period 1976 to 2012, the empirical results provide strong evidence on the presence of a long-run stable investment function. In the short-run, remittances has a positive and significant effect on the real investment; a consistent result with the literature. Therefore, the results confirm the significant impact of worker’s remittances on the real investment found in the previous literature using a cointegration technique. Both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests show that real investment and remittances are cointegrated and there is clear evidence on the presence of a long-run relationship among them in Jordan. This is based on the statistical significance of the coefficient of the error correction term. The estimated coefficient is -0.545 and statistically significant with the anticipated negative sign, which indicates that the speed of adjustment to equilibrium in the long-run is relatively high. This finding emphasises the importance of the flows of remittances to labour-exporting countrieson the real investment especially in the case of Jordan.
{"title":"Remittances and Real Investment in Jordan: Is There a Link? An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Ghazi Al-Assaf, Alaaeddin Al-tarawneh","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.1.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.1.69","url":null,"abstract":"The study attempts to test the long-run equilibrium relationships between the flows of workers’ remittances, andreal investment.Using Jordanian data, over the period 1976 to 2012, the empirical results provide strong evidence on the presence of a long-run stable investment function. In the short-run, remittances has a positive and significant effect on the real investment; a consistent result with the literature. Therefore, the results confirm the significant impact of worker’s remittances on the real investment found in the previous literature using a cointegration technique. Both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests show that real investment and remittances are cointegrated and there is clear evidence on the presence of a long-run relationship among them in Jordan. This is based on the statistical significance of the coefficient of the error correction term. The estimated coefficient is -0.545 and statistically significant with the anticipated negative sign, which indicates that the speed of adjustment to equilibrium in the long-run is relatively high. This finding emphasises the importance of the flows of remittances to labour-exporting countrieson the real investment especially in the case of Jordan.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"69-84"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses P.R. China’s provincial data from 2003 to 2012 to empirically measure the impact of marketization on the reverse technology spillover effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using a panel threshold regression model. Results show a positive reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI when the degree of marketization exceeds certain threshold levels. P.R. China can increase total factor productivity by accelerating the implementation of reforms in market policy toward outward FDI that take into account the differential regional marketization levels.
{"title":"Reverse Technology Spillover Effects of Outward FDI to P.R. China: A Threshold Regression Analysis","authors":"Jingwen Xia, Jaime Ortiz, Haibo Wang","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.1.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.1.51","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses P.R. China’s provincial data from 2003 to 2012 to empirically measure the impact of marketization on the reverse technology spillover effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using a panel threshold regression model. Results show a positive reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI when the degree of marketization exceeds certain threshold levels. P.R. China can increase total factor productivity by accelerating the implementation of reforms in market policy toward outward FDI that take into account the differential regional marketization levels.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"51-67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) of the European Commission intends to create an open, secure, integrated financial market across EU member countries. Although recent research has shown a positive impact of the FSAP directives on cross-border lending and industrial growth, the effect on financial development remains to be examined. Using principal component analysis to construct financial, banking sector, bond and stock market development indices, we investigate the impact of financial harmonization policies of the FSAP on financial development in a panel of twenty five EU member states for the period of 1996 – 2007. Taking into account the timing perspective in implementing the FSAP directives across countries we find a positive link between financial harmonization and financial development. The results are shown to be robust to different approaches in constructing the harmonization index and the harmonization difference (relative timing of adoption) variable, and adding further controls and years to account for the recent period.
{"title":"Financial Harmonization and Financial Development: An Application of Europe’s Financial Services Action Plan","authors":"Zeynep Ozkok","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"The Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) of the European Commission intends to create an open, secure, integrated financial market across EU member countries. Although recent research has shown a positive impact of the FSAP directives on cross-border lending and industrial growth, the effect on financial development remains to be examined. Using principal component analysis to construct financial, banking sector, bond and stock market development indices, we investigate the impact of financial harmonization policies of the FSAP on financial development in a panel of twenty five EU member states for the period of 1996 – 2007. Taking into account the timing perspective in implementing the FSAP directives across countries we find a positive link between financial harmonization and financial development. The results are shown to be robust to different approaches in constructing the harmonization index and the harmonization difference (relative timing of adoption) variable, and adding further controls and years to account for the recent period.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"1-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Previous studies that included any uncertainty measure in the specification of the demand for money in the U.S. derived their measures either from volatility of nominal money supply or volatility of real GDP. However, other factors such as taxes, spending, regulation, the Fed’s announcements, budget deficits, etc. could also contribute to an uncertain environment. A new measure of uncertainty that accounts for all these factors is now constructed and published. In this paper we include this comprehensive new measure known as “policy uncertainty” in estimating the demand for M2 in the U.S. Empirical results show that this new uncertainty measure has short-run and long-run positive effect, implying that due to policy uncertainty Americans hold more cash and this could contribute to a prolonged recession. JEL Classification: E41
{"title":"Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in the United States","authors":"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Alice Kones, Ali M. Kutan","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.62.1.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.62.1.37","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Previous studies that included any uncertainty measure in the specification of the demand for money in the U.S. derived their measures either from volatility of nominal money supply or volatility of real GDP. However, other factors such as taxes, spending, regulation, the Fed’s announcements, budget deficits, etc. could also contribute to an uncertain environment. A new measure of uncertainty that accounts for all these factors is now constructed and published. In this paper we include this comprehensive new measure known as “policy uncertainty” in estimating the demand for M2 in the U.S. Empirical results show that this new uncertainty measure has short-run and long-run positive effect, implying that due to policy uncertainty Americans hold more cash and this could contribute to a prolonged recession. JEL Classification: E41","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"62 1","pages":"37-49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Under the assumption of a constant liquidity preference in the equation of exchange, the quantity theory of money (QTM) has been frequently confirmed for strong inflation regimes, but much less so for medium or low inflation. Against the backdrop of Milton Friedman’s famous rule and relaxing the constancy assumption, we study the time series and crosssectional properties of central variables of the Cambridge-form of the equation of exchange across a large sample of countries. In doing so, we particularly focus on the liquidity preference parameter. Our cross-country analysis confirms Friedman’s conviction drawn from US data as we find the liquidity preference to also internationally grow secularly by about 2 percent p.a. on average. This holds for low-inflation as well as high-inflation countries.
{"title":"The Quantity Theory of Money: Valid Only for High and Medium Inflation?","authors":"C. Hillinger, Bernd Süssmuth, M. Sunder","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.61.4.315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.61.4.315","url":null,"abstract":"Under the assumption of a constant liquidity preference in the equation of exchange, the quantity theory of money (QTM) has been frequently confirmed for strong inflation regimes, but much less so for medium or low inflation. Against the backdrop of Milton Friedman’s famous rule and relaxing the constancy assumption, we study the time series and crosssectional properties of central variables of the Cambridge-form of the equation of exchange across a large sample of countries. In doing so, we particularly focus on the liquidity preference parameter. Our cross-country analysis confirms Friedman’s conviction drawn from US data as we find the liquidity preference to also internationally grow secularly by about 2 percent p.a. on average. This holds for low-inflation as well as high-inflation countries.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"61 1","pages":"315-329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Hanafiah Harvey, S. Hegerty
The effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade, while often assumed to be detrimental, are actually ambiguous. Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have found positive as well as negative effects. Analyses of disaggregated trade flows in particular have found many individual industries to register no effect at all. As a result, specific industries and specific country pairs must be examined on a case-by-case basis. This study examines U.S.-Chilean trade for 113 export and 23 import industries using annual data from 1971 to 2010. While aggregate trade shows little impact, industry-level effects are stronger. Half of the U.S. export industries in SITC sector 8 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) respond negatively, suggesting that Chilean imports of type of product would increase as the result of a more stable peso.
{"title":"The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U.S.-Chilean Industry Trade Flows","authors":"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Hanafiah Harvey, S. Hegerty","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.61.4.353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.61.4.353","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade, while often assumed to be detrimental, are actually ambiguous. Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have found positive as well as negative effects. Analyses of disaggregated trade flows in particular have found many individual industries to register no effect at all. As a result, specific industries and specific country pairs must be examined on a case-by-case basis. This study examines U.S.-Chilean trade for 113 export and 23 import industries using annual data from 1971 to 2010. While aggregate trade shows little impact, industry-level effects are stronger. Half of the U.S. export industries in SITC sector 8 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) respond negatively, suggesting that Chilean imports of type of product would increase as the result of a more stable peso.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"61 1","pages":"353-371"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Are cash payments, in any post-industrial economy, only a barbarous relic of the past? And should they be replaced by dematerialized payment methods? According to our analysis, cash represents a natural drive towards economic dynamism and growth. From a behavioural standpoint, resources hold in cash entail reassuring components, which have ancestral origins and cannot be eliminated by law. That notwithstanding, in several European countries a clear tendency has emerged towards imposing a limit to the use of cash, based on the supposition that it may reduce capital flight and tax fraud. Not only are these cash acceptance thresholds – mostly introduced around the crisis year 2012 – likely to have detrimental repercussions on consumption as well as GDP growth levels, but they may also cause panic waves in times of economic uncertainty. These outcomes seem particularly probable given the imperfect replaceability of cash by other payment alternatives. In addition, inadequate communication by policymakers combined with the (growing) taxation of intangible financial assets and the menace, albeit infrequent, of haircuts on bank accounts are the opposite of any coherent marketing strategy in support of cashless economies.
{"title":"Europe’s Cash Restrictions: A Recipe for Home-Made Economic Instability","authors":"E. Beretta","doi":"10.3790/AEQ.61.4.373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/AEQ.61.4.373","url":null,"abstract":"Are cash payments, in any post-industrial economy, only a barbarous relic of the past? And should they be replaced by dematerialized payment methods? According to our analysis, cash represents a natural drive towards economic dynamism and growth. From a behavioural standpoint, resources hold in cash entail reassuring components, which have ancestral origins and cannot be eliminated by law. That notwithstanding, in several European countries a clear tendency has emerged towards imposing a limit to the use of cash, based on the supposition that it may reduce capital flight and tax fraud. Not only are these cash acceptance thresholds – mostly introduced around the crisis year 2012 – likely to have detrimental repercussions on consumption as well as GDP growth levels, but they may also cause panic waves in times of economic uncertainty. These outcomes seem particularly probable given the imperfect replaceability of cash by other payment alternatives. In addition, inadequate communication by policymakers combined with the (growing) taxation of intangible financial assets and the menace, albeit infrequent, of haircuts on bank accounts are the opposite of any coherent marketing strategy in support of cashless economies.","PeriodicalId":36978,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economics Quarterly","volume":"61 1","pages":"373-390"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70167825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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