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Are there any turning points for external debt in Malaysia? Case of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems model 马来西亚的外债有什么转折点吗?自适应神经模糊推理系统模型实例
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00236-6
A. Karia
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引用次数: 1
Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: evidence from Indonesian provinces 区域经济结构与货币政策的异质性效应:来自印尼各省的证据
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-05 DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-461275/V1
Harry Aginta, Masakazu Someya
We analyze how regional economic structures affect the impact of monetary policy on rates of inflation across 34 Indonesian provinces. The paper first applies structural factor augmented vector autoregressive model (SFAVAR) to all the 34 provinces based on monthly provincial data in order to measure the length and magnitude of responses of regional inflation to monetary policy shock, derived from the consequential impulse response functions of 34 provinces. In the second step, we analyze the impact of economic structures on the length and magnitude of regional inflationary responses of 34 provinces. We find that the impacts of monetary policy across regions are significantly influenced by economic structural variables such as manufacturing sector share to GDP, mining sector share to GDP, bank lending share to GDP and export share to GDP. In addition, we found the spatial lag, rate of inflation of neighboring provinces, is also statistically significant. In a similar fashion, economic structural variables such as manufacturing sector share to GDP, construction sector share to GDP and investment share to GDP are found statistically significant in explaining regional differences of monetary policy efficiency. Our findings imply economic structures of provinces have to be incorporated to designing monetary policy in Indonesia.
我们分析了区域经济结构如何影响印尼34个省的货币政策对通货膨胀率的影响。本文首先基于各省的月度数据,将结构因子增强向量自回归模型(SFAVAR)应用于所有34个省份,从34个省份的相应脉冲响应函数中得出地区通货膨胀对货币政策冲击的响应长度和程度。第二步,我们分析了34个省份的经济结构对区域通货膨胀反应时间和程度的影响。我们发现,货币政策对各地区的影响受到经济结构变量的显著影响,如制造业占GDP的比重、采矿业占GDP的比重、银行贷款占GDP的比重和出口占GDP的比重。此外,我们发现邻近省份的通货膨胀率的空间滞后性也具有统计学意义。以类似的方式,经济结构变量,如制造业占GDP的份额,建筑业占GDP的份额和投资占GDP的份额,在解释货币政策效率的区域差异方面具有统计学意义。我们的研究结果表明,在制定印尼的货币政策时,必须考虑各省的经济结构。
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引用次数: 5
Eco-mechanisms within economic evolution: Schumpeterian approach 经济进化中的生态机制:熊彼特方法
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-03-26 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00234-8
A. Lipieta, A. Malawski
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引用次数: 2
Extended input–output model for urbanization: an empirical test using Chinese data 城市化的扩展投入产出模型:基于中国数据的实证检验
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00233-9
Nobuhiro Okamoto
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引用次数: 1
Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers: a firm-level analysis of Bangladesh in comparison with Vietnam 外国直接投资和生产率溢出:孟加拉国与越南比较的企业层面分析
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-154359/V1
Md Arif-Ur-Rahman, K. Inaba
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to generate external effects—usually termed FDI spillovers—for a host country, and these spillovers are thought to have consequences on the productivity of domestic firms. Despite this strong expectation, the empirical findings on FDI spillover are still indecisive. This study examines firm-level panel data to determine the effects of FDI spillover on firms’ productivity in Bangladesh in comparison to Vietnam. We consider both the horizontal and vertical (backward and forward) spillover effects of FDI. We find evidence that Bangladeshi firms gain productivity improvement through intra-industry or horizontal linkages, whereas Vietnamese firms gain through backward linkages. Our findings suggest that increases in foreign presence in the same industry for Bangladesh and in downstream industries for Vietnam are related with increase in output of domestic firms.
预计外国直接投资(FDI)会对东道国产生外部效应——通常称为FDI溢出效应,而这些溢出效应被认为会对国内企业的生产率产生影响。尽管有这种强烈的预期,但关于FDI溢出的实证研究结果仍然犹豫不决。本研究考察了企业层面的面板数据,以确定外商直接投资溢出对孟加拉国企业生产率的影响,并与越南进行了比较。我们考虑了FDI的横向和纵向(向后和向前)溢出效应。我们发现证据表明,孟加拉国企业通过产业内或横向联系获得生产率提高,而越南企业通过向后联系获得生产率提高。我们的研究结果表明,孟加拉国同一行业和越南下游行业中外国企业的增加与国内企业产量的增加有关。
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引用次数: 5
Producing a village input–output table (VIOT) from household survey data: a case study of a VIOT for a rural village in northern Lao PDR 根据住户调查数据制作村庄投入产出表:老挝人民民主共和国北部一个村庄投入产出表的案例研究
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-12 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-020-00231-3
Soulixay Hongsakhone, Moinul Islam, Masaru Ichihashi
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引用次数: 4
An extended approach to value chain analysis. 价值链分析的扩展方法。
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00244-6
Klemen Knez, Andreja Jaklič, Metka Stare

In the article, we propose a comprehensive methodology of value chain analysis in the international input-output framework that introduces a new measure of value chain participation and an extended typology of value chains, with the novel inclusion of domestic value chain to address the extent of fragmentation of purely domestic production. This allows for the simultaneous analysis of both global and domestic production fragmentation, the complex patterns of their evolution and their impact on economic development. The main contribution of the proposed methodology is conceptual: it permits the measurement of all value chain paths that pass through each country-sector from production to final consumption, whether the path includes downstream linkages, upstream linkages or their combination. Empirical application of this methodology shows the importance of including domestic fragmentation in value chain analysis: The fragmentation of both global and domestic levels of production has a significant positive correlation with economic growth. This implies that the effects of global production fragmentation must be analysed together with the changing structure of the fragmentation of domestic production to obtain the whole picture, one that might provide important information for policymaking and industrial policy.

在本文中,我们在国际投入产出框架中提出了一种全面的价值链分析方法,该方法引入了一种新的价值链参与衡量标准和一种扩展的价值链类型,并将国内价值链纳入其中,以解决纯粹国内生产的碎片化程度。这样就可以同时分析全球和国内生产的分散、其演变的复杂模式及其对经济发展的影响。拟议的方法的主要贡献是概念性的:它允许衡量从生产到最终消费通过每个国家部门的所有价值链路径,无论路径包括下游联系、上游联系或它们的组合。该方法的实证应用表明,将国内碎片化纳入价值链分析的重要性:全球和国内生产水平的碎片化都与经济增长呈显著正相关。这意味着必须把全球生产分散的影响同国内生产分散的结构变化一起加以分析,以获得全貌,这可能为决策和工业政策提供重要的资料。
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引用次数: 11
Impact of Economic Structure on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. 印度经济结构对环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的影响。
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-12-18 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00259-z
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath, Mohini Gupta, Seema Saini, Malayaranjan Sahoo

This study aims to evaluate the impact of economic structure on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in India. The present study deviates from the bulk of study in the literature with the incorporation of both aggregated and disaggregated measures of economic development on the environmental degradation function. For the empirical analysis, the study employed the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship during 1971-2014. Further, the direction of the causality is investigated through the Wald test approach. The results revealed that the conventional EKC hypothesis does not hold in India in both aggregated and disaggregated models since economic growth and its component have a U-shaped impact on the environmental quality in India. However, the effect of population on environmental quality is positive but not significant in the aggregated model. Whereas, in the disaggregated model, it is significantly affecting environmental quality. Hence, it is possible to infer that the population of the country increases, the demand for energy consumption increase tremendously, particularly consumption of fossil fuel like coal, oil, and natural gas, and is also evident from the energy structure coefficient from both models. This increase is due to the scarcity of renewable energy for meeting the needs of people. On the contrary, urbanization reduces environmental degradation, which may be due to improved living conditions in terms of efficient infrastructure and energy efficiency in the urban area leading to a negative relation between urbanization and environmental degradation.

本研究旨在评估印度经济结构对环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的影响。本研究偏离了文献中的大部分研究,结合了经济发展对环境退化功能的汇总和分类措施。在实证分析方面,本研究采用协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界检验方法分析1971-2014年的长期和短期关系。进一步,通过沃尔德检验方法研究了因果关系的方向。结果表明,传统的EKC假设在印度的总体和分解模型中都不成立,因为经济增长及其组成部分对印度的环境质量具有u型影响。人口对环境质量的影响是正的,但在聚集模型中不显著。然而,在分解模型中,它对环境质量的影响显著。因此,可以推断出该国人口的增加,对能源消费的需求急剧增加,特别是对煤、石油和天然气等化石燃料的消费,这一点从两种模型的能源结构系数中也可以看出。这一增长是由于可再生能源的稀缺,以满足人们的需求。相反,城市化减少了环境退化,这可能是由于城市地区高效的基础设施和能源效率改善了生活条件,导致城市化与环境退化之间呈负相关关系。
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引用次数: 30
Relaxing the import proportionality assumption in multi-regional input-output modelling. 放宽多区域投入产出模型中的进口比例假设。
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00250-8
Simon Schulte, Arthur Jakobs, Stefan Pauliuk

In the absence of data on the destination industry of international trade flows most multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables are based on the import proportionality assumption. Under this assumption imported commodities are proportionally distributed over the target sectors (individual industries and final demand categories) of an importing region. Here, we quantify the uncertainty arising from the import proportionality assumption on the four major environmental footprints of the different regions and industries represented in the MRIO database EXIOBASE. We randomise the global import flows by applying an algorithm that randomly assigns imported commodities block-wise to the target sectors of an importing region, while maintaining the trade balance. We find the variability of the national footprints in general below a coefficient of variation (CV) of 4%, except for the material, water and land footprints of highly trade-dependent and small economies. At the industry level the variability is higher with 25% of the footprints having a CV above 10% (carbon footprint), and above 30% (land, material and water footprint), respectively, with maximum CVs up to 394%. We provide a list of the variability of the national and industry environmental footprints in the Additional files so that MRIO scholars can check if an industry/region that is important in their study ranks high, so that either the database can be improved through adding more details on bilateral trade, or the uncertainty can be calculated and reported.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40008-021-00250-8.

在缺乏国际贸易流动目的产业数据的情况下,大多数多区域投入产出表都是基于进口比例假设。在这种假设下,进口商品按比例分布在一个进口地区的目标部门(个别工业和最终需求类别)。在此,我们量化了MRIO数据库EXIOBASE中不同地区和行业的四种主要环境足迹的进口比例假设所产生的不确定性。我们采用一种算法,在保持贸易平衡的同时,将进口商品随机分配到进口地区的目标部门,从而使全球进口流量随机化。我们发现,除了高度依赖贸易的小型经济体的材料、水和土地足迹外,国家足迹的变异性总体上低于4%的变异系数(CV)。在行业层面上,变异性更高,25%的足迹CV超过10%(碳足迹),30%以上(土地、材料和水足迹),最大CV高达394%。我们在附加文件中提供了国家和行业环境足迹的变异性列表,以便MRIO学者可以检查在他们的研究中重要的行业/地区是否排名较高,以便通过添加更多双边贸易细节来改进数据库,或者可以计算和报告不确定性。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1186/s40008-021-00250-8。
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引用次数: 7
Pathways to recovery from COVID-19: characterizing input-output linkages of a targeted sector. 从COVID-19中复苏的途径:目标部门投入产出联系的特征。
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-12-23 DOI: 10.1186/s40008-021-00256-2
Tugrul Temel, Paul Phumpiu

At present, the world is facing an unprecedented employment challenge due to the COVID-19 pandemic. International Labor Organization of the United Nations expects the largest amount of youth unemployment at the global level to take place in manufacturing, real estate, wholesale, and accommodation sectors. This paper has two objectives. The first is to introduce a graph-theoretic method for identifying upstream and downstream pathways of a targeted sector and characterize them in ways that help respond to and recovery from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second is to apply this method in the context of China, Japan, India, Russia, Germany, Turkey, UK and USA, which together account for about 60 percent of the world GDP. Based on the analysis of most recent input-output data from 2015, manufacturing sector is found to be top priority sector to be targeted in all the eight countries, followed by real estate and wholesale sectors, and these sectors should be coupled with isolated communities of sectors to capture external employment and growth effects. Characterizing the critical pre-COVID-19 linkages of a targeted sector should inform policy makers regarding the design of employment and growth strategies to recover from the pandemic.

当前,全球面临新冠肺炎疫情带来的前所未有的就业挑战。据联合国国际劳工组织(ilo)预测,在全球范围内,青年失业人数最多的行业是制造业、房地产、批发、住宿等行业。本文有两个目的。首先是引入一种图论方法,用于识别目标行业的上下游路径,并以有助于应对和从COVID-19大流行的不利影响中恢复的方式对其进行表征。二是将这一方法应用于中国、日本、印度、俄罗斯、德国、土耳其、英国和美国的背景下,这些国家加起来约占世界GDP的60%。根据对2015年最新投入产出数据的分析,制造业被发现是所有八个国家的首要目标部门,其次是房地产和批发部门,这些部门应该与孤立的部门社区相结合,以捕捉外部就业和增长效应。确定目标部门在2019冠状病毒病前的关键联系特征,应为政策制定者制定就业和增长战略以从大流行中复苏提供信息。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Economic Structures
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