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2014 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management最新文献

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Integrated Bayesian framework for remaining useful life prediction 剩余使用寿命预测的集成贝叶斯框架
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036361
A. Mosallam, K. Medjaher, N. Zerhouni
In this paper, a data-driven method for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is presented. The method learns the relation between acquired sensor data and end of life time (EOL) to predict the RUL. The proposed method extracts monotonic trends from offline sensor signals, which are used to build reference models. From online signals the method represents the uncertainty about the current status, using discrete Bayesian filter. Finally, the method predicts RUL of the monitored component using integrated method based on K-nearest neighbor (k-NN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated using two real data sets from NASA Ames prognostics data repository. The results show that the algorithm obtain good results for both application.
本文提出了一种数据驱动的剩余使用寿命预测方法。该方法通过学习采集到的传感器数据与寿命结束时间(EOL)之间的关系来预测RUL。该方法从离线传感器信号中提取单调趋势,用于建立参考模型。该方法利用离散贝叶斯滤波,从在线信号中表示当前状态的不确定性。最后,采用基于k-最近邻(k-NN)和高斯过程回归(GPR)的综合方法预测被监测构件的RUL。利用NASA Ames预测数据库中的两个真实数据集验证了该算法的性能。结果表明,该算法在两种应用中均取得了较好的效果。
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引用次数: 8
Assessment of grinding wheel conditioning process using machine vision 基于机器视觉的砂轮调节过程评价
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036382
N. Arunachalam, L. Vijayaraghavan
Assessing the grinding wheel surface condition during dressing is very important in order to decide about the number of dressing passes required to retain the cutting ability of the grinding wheel and also to reduce the wastage of the grinding wheel material. The dressing process removes the loaded particles and brings out the new grains in order to retain the cutting ability of the grinding wheel. The selection of correct dressing parameters and the condition of the dresser are very important to carryout proper dressing. In this work, an attempt has been made to arrive out the number of dressing passes required to dress the grinding wheel based on the texture features of the images of the grinding wheel. The single point diamond dressing was carried out with selected dressing variables. After each pass the images of the grinding wheel was captured in the same location by properly positioning the grinding wheel. Then the images were analyzed and the evaluated texture parameters were used to indicate the condition of the grinding wheel.
在修整过程中评估砂轮表面状况对于决定修整次数以保持砂轮的切削能力和减少砂轮材料的浪费是非常重要的。修整过程去除已加载的颗粒,产生新的颗粒,以保持砂轮的切削能力。选择正确的修整参数和修整器的条件是进行合理修整的关键。在这项工作中,尝试根据砂轮图像的纹理特征得出修整砂轮所需的修整道次。采用选定的选矿变量对金刚石进行单点选矿。每次通过后,通过正确定位砂轮,在同一位置捕捉到砂轮的图像。然后对图像进行分析,利用评估得到的纹理参数来指示砂轮的状态。
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引用次数: 7
Switching vector autoregressive models with higher-order regime dynamics Application to prognostics and health management 具有高阶状态动力学的切换向量自回归模型在预后和健康管理中的应用
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036405
A. Hochstein, Hyung-Il Ahn, Y. Leung, M. Denesuk
Regime switching vector autoregressive (RSVAR) models are typically used to model changing dependency structures of multivariate time series. These changing regimes are represented by using a first-order Markov process where the transition distribution reflects the probabilities of moving to one of the other regime in the subsequent time step. Instead of representing the state of the system at different points in time, we extend this framework by using an explicit time representation that allows us to query against probability distributions of when particular regime changes take place. In contrast to continuous time based approaches such as continuous time Bayesian networks or continuous time Markov processes, we do not rely on intensity matrices that describe trajectories of consecutive states. Here we define regime changes as events and understand time as context of an event. This allows us to integrate dependencies at different time granularities while being able to perform inference in a decomposed way. As a consequence, we can efficiently consider higher-order effects stretching across a large number of consecutive regimes. The underlying assumption is that timely evolution of variables between regime switches is completely captured by the VAR model or possibly a set of VAR models with varying measuring rates and that there is a representative set of multiple time series exhibiting similar higher-order regime dynamics. In this paper we show how such dynamics can be learned integrative with learning RSVAR model parameters and how the regime dynamics can be considered in the RSVAR inference procedures. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach based on a simple scenario. Further, an application to a typical prognostics scenario is presented, leading to the highest score in the IEEE PHM 2014 Data Challenge for the industrial track.
状态切换向量自回归(RSVAR)模型通常用于多变量时间序列变化依赖结构的建模。这些变化的状态用一阶马尔可夫过程表示,其中过渡分布反映了在随后的时间步长中移动到另一个状态的概率。我们不是表示系统在不同时间点的状态,而是通过使用显式时间表示来扩展该框架,该时间表示允许我们查询特定状态发生变化时的概率分布。与基于连续时间的方法(如连续时间贝叶斯网络或连续时间马尔可夫过程)相比,我们不依赖于描述连续状态轨迹的强度矩阵。在这里,我们将政权变化定义为事件,并将时间理解为事件的背景。这允许我们以不同的时间粒度集成依赖关系,同时能够以分解的方式执行推理。因此,我们可以有效地考虑跨越大量连续状态的高阶效应。潜在的假设是,变量在状态切换之间的及时演变完全被VAR模型或可能是一组具有不同测量率的VAR模型所捕获,并且存在一组具有代表性的多时间序列,表现出类似的高阶状态动态。在本文中,我们展示了如何将这种动力学与学习RSVAR模型参数结合起来学习,以及如何在RSVAR推理过程中考虑状态动力学。我们基于一个简单的场景来演示我们的方法的好处。此外,还介绍了典型预测场景的应用,从而在IEEE PHM 2014工业赛道数据挑战赛中获得最高分。
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引用次数: 21
Application of order tracking rationale to non-rotating cantilever beam analysis 阶次跟踪原理在非旋转悬臂梁分析中的应用
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036365
Kesheng Wang, D. Luo, Yaohui Wang, Q. He
Order tracking analysis is normally treated as a method to deal with rotating machine vibration signals. The effectiveness of the technique for rotating machine fault diagnostics has been widely recognized. However, the use of the order tracking to non-rotating mechanism has not yet been exploited. The applications of order tracking logic to non-rotating mechanisms may greatly enhance the diagnostic abilities. In this paper, the fundamental rationale of order tracking analysis is commented and its suitability of the order tracking rationale to non-rotating mechanism is explored in an experimental cantilever beam setup. The comparisons between proposed signal processing method to traditional time and frequency methods are discussed. An improved prospective to understand non-rotating mechanism is proposed with the help of order tracking basics.
订单跟踪分析通常被视为处理旋转机械振动信号的一种方法。该技术在旋转机械故障诊断中的有效性已得到广泛认可。然而,订单跟踪到非旋转机制的使用尚未得到开发。将顺序跟踪逻辑应用于非旋转机构,可以大大提高诊断能力。本文评述了阶数跟踪分析的基本原理,并在实验悬臂梁装置中探讨了阶数跟踪理论对非旋转机构的适用性。讨论了所提出的信号处理方法与传统时频方法的比较。利用订单跟踪的基本原理,提出了一种改进的理解非旋转机制的方法。
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引用次数: 3
Prognostic indicators for Cu-Al wirebond degradation under operation at elevated temperature and combined temperature humidity 高温和复合温湿度下Cu-Al线键降解的预测指标
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036400
P. Lall, Shantanu Deshpande, L. Nguyen, M. Murtuza
Gold wire bonding has been widely used as first-level interconnect in semiconductor packaging. The increase in the gold price has motivated the industry search for alternative to the gold wire used in wire bonding and the transition to copper wire bonding technology. Potential advantages of transition to Cu-Al wire bond system includes low cost of copper wire, lower thermal resistivity, lower electrical resistivity, higher deformation strength, damage during ultrasonic squeeze, and stability compared to gold wire. However, the transition to the copper wire brings along some trade-offs including poor corrosion resistance, narrow process window, higher hardness, and potential for cratering. Formation of excessive Cu-Al intermetallics may increase electrical resistance and reduce the mechanical bonding strength. Current state-of-art for studying the Cu-Al system focuses on accumulation of statistically significant number of failures under accelerated testing. In this paper, a new approach has been developed to identify the occurrence of impending apparently-random defect fall-outs and pre-mature failures observed in the Cu-Al wirebond system. The use of intermetallic thickness, composition and corrosion as a leading indicator of failure for assessment of remaining useful life for Cu-al wirebond interconnects has been studied under exposure to high temperature and temperature-humidity. Damage in wire bonds has been studied using x-ray Micro-CT. Microstructure evolution was studied under isothermal aging conditions of 150°C, 175°C, and 200°C till failure. Activation energy was calculated using growth rate of intermetallic at different temperatures. Effect of temperature and humidity on Cu-Al wirebond system was studied using Parr Bomb technique at different elevated temperature and humidity conditions (110°C/100%RH, 120°C/100%RH, 130°C/100%RH) and failure mechanism was developed. The present methodology uses evolution of the IMC thickness, composition in conjunction with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to identify accrued damage in wire bond subjected to thermal aging. The proposed method can be used for quick assessment of Cu-Al parts to ensure manufactured part consistency through sampling.
金线键合作为半导体封装中的一级互连已被广泛应用。黄金价格的上涨促使业界寻找用于金属键合的金线的替代品,并向铜线键合技术过渡。与金线相比,过渡到铜铝丝结合系统的潜在优势包括铜线成本低、热电阻率低、电阻率低、变形强度高、超声波挤压时损伤小、稳定性好。然而,过渡到铜线带来了一些权衡,包括较差的耐腐蚀性,狭窄的工艺窗口,更高的硬度和潜在的陨石坑。过量Cu-Al金属间化合物的形成会增加电阻,降低机械结合强度。目前研究Cu-Al系统的技术水平主要集中在加速测试中统计显著失效数量的积累。本文提出了一种新的方法来识别Cu-Al焊丝系统中即将发生的明显随机缺陷脱落和过早失效。利用金属间化合物厚度、成分和腐蚀作为Cu-al线联线剩余使用寿命评估的主要失效指标,在高温和温湿条件下进行了研究。利用x射线显微ct研究了金属丝键的损伤。在150°C、175°C和200°C的等温时效条件下研究组织演变。利用金属间化合物在不同温度下的生长率计算活化能。采用Parr Bomb技术研究了温度和湿度在不同高湿条件下(110°C/100%RH、120°C/100%RH、130°C/100%RH)对Cu-Al焊丝粘结系统的影响,并探讨了失效机理。目前的方法使用IMC厚度的演变,成分与Levenberg-Marquardt算法相结合,以确定钢丝粘结在热老化下的累积损伤。该方法可用于铜铝零件的快速评定,通过抽样保证制件的一致性。
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引用次数: 3
A model-based fault injection system for aerocraft wing structure 基于模型的飞机机翼结构故障注入系统
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036378
Yu Qi, Wang Fangyi, Guo Yingnan, W. Cui, Cui Weimin
Fault injection technologies, which are important component of prognostic and health management (PHM) system and being paid more and more attention, have been applied to estimate the health status of aerocraft, with aiming to enhance the safety and reduce the maintenance costs. This paper presents a method that can inject faults such as joint failures and skin damages into a finite element model of wing structure for overcoming the difficulty in simulating an actual structural fault. The fault modes of wing structure are analyzed and its influence can be reflected in the finite element (FE) model by controlling the command stream. The parameters such as linear displacement, angular displacement, constraint force and maximal node stress can be used to identify the corresponding fault mode. A Fault injection system, the integration of the fault injection controller compiled by Visual C++ with the finite element analysis (FEA) software ANSYS, is established. User can set parameters including fault mode, location and extent on the interactive interface of the software. With the command stream generated by fault injection controller, the FE model in normal or abnormal condition can be set up for simulating. The results for representative cases show that the outputs from the FEA software coincide with those analyzed through the theory of structural mechanics.
故障注入技术作为预测与健康管理(PHM)系统的重要组成部分,已被广泛应用于飞机健康状态评估,以提高飞机的安全性,降低飞机的维修成本,受到越来越多的关注。针对机翼结构实际故障难以模拟的问题,提出了一种将关节失效、表皮损伤等故障注入机翼结构有限元模型的方法。分析了机翼结构的故障模式,并通过控制命令流将其影响反映在有限元模型中。线性位移、角位移、约束力和最大节点应力等参数可用于识别相应的故障模式。建立了故障注入控制器与有限元分析软件ANSYS集成的故障注入系统。用户可以在软件的交互界面上设置故障模式、位置和程度等参数。利用故障注入控制器生成的命令流,可以建立正常或异常工况下的有限元模型进行仿真。算例分析结果表明,有限元软件计算结果与结构力学理论分析结果吻合较好。
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引用次数: 0
PEM fuel cell prognostics using particle filter with model parameter adaptation 基于模型参数自适应的粒子滤波的PEM燃料电池预测
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406
J. Kimotho, T. Meyer, W. Sextro
Application of prognostics and health management (PHM) in the field of Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells is emerging as an important tool in increasing the reliability and availability of these systems. Though a lot of work is currently being conducted to develop PHM systems for fuel cells, various challenges have been encountered including the self-healing effect after characterization as well as accelerated degradation due to dynamic loading, all which make RUL predictions a difficult task. In this study, a prognostic approach based on adaptive particle filter algorithm is proposed. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the introduction of a self-healing factor after each characterization and the adaption of the degradation model parameters to fit to the changing degradation trend. An ensemble of five different state models based on weighted mean is then developed. The results show that the method is effective in estimating the remaining useful life of PEM fuel cells, with majority of the predictions falling within 5% error. The method was employed in the IEEE 2014 PHM Data Challenge and led to our team emerging the winner of the RUL category of the challenge.
预测与健康管理(PHM)在质子交换膜(PEM)燃料电池领域的应用正在成为提高这些系统可靠性和可用性的重要工具。尽管目前正在进行大量的工作来开发燃料电池的PHM系统,但遇到了各种各样的挑战,包括表征后的自愈效应以及动态负载导致的加速降解,所有这些都使得RUL预测成为一项艰巨的任务。本文提出了一种基于自适应粒子滤波算法的预测方法。该方法的新颖之处在于在每次表征后引入自愈因子,并对降解模型参数进行自适应以适应不断变化的降解趋势。然后建立了基于加权均值的五种不同状态模型的集合。结果表明,该方法在估计PEM燃料电池剩余使用寿命方面是有效的,大多数预测误差在5%以内。该方法被用于IEEE 2014 PHM数据挑战赛,并使我们的团队成为挑战赛RUL类别的获胜者。
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引用次数: 63
Estimating the remaining useful life of power grid transmission lines using synchrophasor data 利用同步相量数据估计电网输电线路的剩余使用寿命
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036392
T. R. Walsh, S. Alhloul, M. Hajimorad
This paper addresses the use of traditional PHM techniques for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a transmission line in a typical power grid. The sensor of interest is the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) which provides sampled data in the form of a synchrophasor. A Synchrophasor is a GPS based time stamped measurement of voltage and current at different physical locations on the grid. It is the fact that the measurements are time stamped to a common clock that allows one to obtain the absolute phase difference between measurements at different points in the grid. It is this phase difference that determines the health of the grid. Too large of a phase difference can result in voltage collapse and a subsequent blackout. In this paper, we propose a model for describing the aforementioned phase difference and obtain estimates of the model parameters. We subsequently use our model to formulate an equation that estimates the RUL of a given transmission line. This technique is applied to three different cases of phase difference that one might observe on an actual power grid, with estimates of the RUL presented for each case.
本文讨论了使用传统的PHM技术来估计典型电网中传输线的剩余使用寿命(RUL)。感兴趣的传感器是相量测量单元(PMU),它以同步相量的形式提供采样数据。同步相量是一种基于GPS的时间戳测量电网上不同物理位置的电压和电流。事实是,测量是按一个共同的时钟进行时间戳的,这使人们能够获得网格中不同点测量值之间的绝对相位差。正是这个相位差决定了电网的健康状况。相位差太大可能导致电压崩溃和随后的停电。在本文中,我们提出了一个描述上述相位差的模型,并获得了模型参数的估计。我们随后使用我们的模型来制定一个方程来估计给定传输线的RUL。该技术应用于在实际电网中可能观察到的三种不同的相位差情况,并给出了每种情况下的RUL估计。
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引用次数: 0
Critical Zone Recognition: Classification vs. regression 关键区域识别:分类与回归
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036386
Z. Bluvband, S. Porotsky, Shimon Tropper
The article describes the Classification and Regression procedures, developed and successfully used for Critical Zone Recognition. One of the main tasks of the Prognostics and Health Management is the Failure Prognostics, specifically to provide predictive information regarding Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of device using prognostic systems. But sometimes it is necessary to get inflexible answer for closed type question: Is current device within critical zone or not? In other words, is RUL of device less than pre-defined Critical Value or not? To solve this problem, two approaches may be considered: · Regression Approach: to predict RUL value and compare results with critical value · Classification Approach: to recognize directly entering the critical zone In general, Classification Approach is more preferred for recognition tasks, but some aspects of the approach prevent to get an evident answer. Two models, based on modifications of the SVM method - SVC (Support Vector Classification) and SVR (Support Vector Regression) are proposed for consideration. Suggested methodology and algorithms were verified on the NASA Aircraft Engine database (http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/tech/dash/pcoe/prognostic-data-repository/). Numerical examples, based on this database, have been also considered.
本文描述了分类和回归程序,开发并成功地用于关键区域识别。预测和健康管理的主要任务之一是故障预测,特别是使用预测系统提供有关设备剩余使用寿命(RUL)的预测信息。但对于封闭型问题:当前设备是否在临界区域内,有时需要得到僵化的答案。换句话说,设备的RUL是否小于预定义的临界值?为了解决这个问题,可以考虑两种方法:·回归法:预测RUL值,并将结果与临界值进行比较·分类法:直接识别进入临界区域。一般来说,分类法更适合识别任务,但该方法的某些方面无法得到明显的答案。基于SVM方法的改进,提出了支持向量分类(SVC)和支持向量回归(SVR)两种模型供参考。建议的方法和算法在NASA飞机发动机数据库(http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/tech/dash/pcoe/prognostic-data-repository/)上进行了验证。还考虑了基于该数据库的数值算例。
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引用次数: 6
Using a PHM-based visual brand identity management system to manage deterioration of visual brand identities and prolong their life span 使用基于phm的视觉品牌标识管理系统来管理视觉品牌标识的退化,延长其使用寿命
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036364
L. Klint, Henrik Lisby, Haical Abas Binthahir
Visual brand identities often and rapidly deteriorate (degradation to failure) if not strenuously, time-consumingly and continuously managed/maintained. There are several reasons for this and in this paper we identify the various visual brand identity processes and components, and the culprits/pitfalls (failure causes) that typically lead to a visual brand identity getting off track. In this paper, we also propose a PHM-based visual brand identity management system (VBIMS) to avoid or reduce such deterioration.
如果不努力、耗时和持续地管理/维护,视觉品牌标识往往会迅速恶化(退化到失败)。这有几个原因,在本文中,我们确定了各种视觉品牌识别过程和组成部分,以及通常导致视觉品牌识别偏离轨道的罪魁祸首/陷阱(失败原因)。在本文中,我们还提出了一个基于phm的视觉品牌识别管理系统(VBIMS)来避免或减少这种恶化。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2014 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management
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