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Prognostics of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell stack in a particle filtering framework including characterization disturbances and voltage recovery 质子交换膜燃料电池堆在粒子滤波框架下的预测,包括表征干扰和电压恢复
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036363
Marine Jouin, R. Gouriveau, D. Hissel, M. Péra, N. Zerhouni
In the perspective of decreasing polluting emissions and developing alternative energies, fuel cells, and more precisely Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC), represent a promising solution. Even if this technology is close to being competitive, it still suffers from too short life duration. As a consequence, prognostic seems to be a great solution to anticipate PEMFC stacks degradation. However, a PEMFC implies multiphysics and multiscale phenomena making the construction of an aging model only based on physics very complex. One solution consists in using a hybrid approach for prognostics combining the use of models and available data. Among these hybrid approaches, particle filtering methods seem to be really appropriate as they offer the possibility to compute models with time varying parameters and to update them all along the prognostics process. But to be efficient, not only should the prognostics system take into account the aging of the stack but also external events influencing this aging. Indeed, some acquisition techniques introduce disturbances in the fuel cell behavior and a voltage recovery can be observed at the end of the characterization process. This paper proposes to tackle this problem. First, PEMFC fuel cells and their complexities are introduced. Then, the impact of characterization of the fuel cell behavior is described. Empirical models are built and introduced in both learning and prediction phases of the prognostics model by combining three particle filters. The new prognostic framework is used to perform remaining useful life estimates and the whole proposition is illustrated with a long term experiment data set of a PEMFC in constant load solicitation and stable operating conditions. Estimates can be given with an error less than 5% for life durations of more than 1000 hours. Finally, the results are compared to a previous work to show that introducing a disturbance modeling can dramatically reduce the uncertainty coming with the predictions.
从减少污染排放和发展替代能源的角度来看,燃料电池,更准确地说是质子交换膜燃料电池(PEMFC),是一个很有前途的解决方案。即使这项技术已经接近具有竞争力,但它的寿命仍然太短。因此,预测似乎是预测PEMFC堆栈退化的一个很好的解决方案。然而,PEMFC意味着多物理场和多尺度现象,使得仅基于物理的老化模型的构建非常复杂。一种解决方案是使用混合方法结合使用模型和可用数据进行预测。在这些混合方法中,粒子滤波方法似乎是非常合适的,因为它们提供了计算具有时变参数的模型并在整个预测过程中更新它们的可能性。但为了提高预测效率,不仅要考虑堆栈的老化,还要考虑影响该老化的外部事件。事实上,一些采集技术在燃料电池行为中引入了干扰,并且在表征过程结束时可以观察到电压恢复。本文旨在解决这一问题。首先,介绍了PEMFC燃料电池及其复杂性。然后,描述了表征对燃料电池性能的影响。结合三个粒子滤波器,在预测模型的学习和预测阶段建立了经验模型。新的预测框架被用来进行剩余使用寿命的估计,并通过恒负荷请求和稳定运行条件下的PEMFC的长期实验数据集来说明整个命题。对于超过1000小时的寿命,可以给出误差小于5%的估计。最后,将结果与先前的工作进行比较,表明引入干扰建模可以显著降低预测带来的不确定性。
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引用次数: 35
Bayesian probabilistic model for life prediction and fault mode classification of solid state luminaires 基于贝叶斯概率模型的固态灯具寿命预测及故障模式分类
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036401
P. Lall, Junchao Wei, P. Sakalaukus
A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminous flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.
已经开发了一种新的方法来评估固态灯具退化的开始,通过使用目前用于识别故障的流明退化之外的指标来对故障机制进行分类。在85°C/85%RH条件下,飞利浦LED灯的光通量输出、相关色温数据已被收集,直到灯失效。为了了解85°C/85%RH加速试验中灯的失效机理,研究了灯的试验种群失效模式。结果表明,灯内LED封装胶变色是主要失效机制,可能是造成光通量下降和色移的原因。所获得的数据与贝叶斯概率模型结合使用,通过识别特征空间中具有累积损伤的灯具和超过故障阈值的灯具之间的决策边界,来识别在故障发生之前就开始退化的灯具。此外,具有不同失效模式的灯具已与健康的原始灯具分开分类。α-λ图已被用来评估所提出的方法的稳健性。结果表明,在85°C/85%RH的加速寿命试验中,灯的预测降解与实际降解相当接近,在±20%的置信区间内。模型预测与实验结果的相关性表明,所提出的方法可以在开发完整的故障分布之前早期识别故障的开始,并且可以用于评估相当大部署的ssl的损坏状态。预计,新的预测技术将允许开发失效分布,而无需测试直到L70寿命失效的表现。
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引用次数: 2
Effects of sampling decimation on a gas turbine performance monitoring 采样抽取对燃气轮机性能监测的影响
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036391
Houman Hanachi, Jie Liu, A. Banerjee, Ying Chen
Monitoring the performance of gas turbine engines (GTEs) by sampling the operating parameters of the GTEs is the central part of the GTEs health management program. The rate of data sampling and the consequent analyses of the sampled data are restricted to the available resources. It especially appears as a principal constraint where the data is manually logged by the operators. In a recent research work, a physics-based approach and resulting performance indicators, i.e., “Heat Loss index” and “Power Deficit index” were introduced by the authors to monitor the health state of the gas turbines using only the readings from the GTE operating system. Statistical estimation approach was taken to establish prediction models for performance indicators. This study provides a quantitative analysis for the effect of sampling decimation on the accuracy of the developed predictor within a time window. Consequently, it provides an insight into the performance prediction uncertainty, in connection with the sampling frequency and the length of the observation window on which the model is established.
通过对燃气涡轮发动机的运行参数进行采样来监测燃气涡轮发动机的性能是燃气涡轮发动机健康管理项目的核心部分。数据采样的速率和随后对采样数据的分析受到可用资源的限制。当数据由操作人员手动记录时,它尤其作为主要约束出现。在最近的一项研究工作中,作者引入了一种基于物理的方法和由此产生的性能指标,即“热损失指数”和“功率赤字指数”,仅使用GTE操作系统的读数来监测燃气轮机的健康状态。采用统计估计的方法建立绩效指标的预测模型。本研究提供了一个定量分析抽样抽取对开发的预测器在一个时间窗口内的准确性的影响。因此,它提供了一个洞察性能预测的不确定性,与采样频率和观测窗口的长度,其中建立了模型。
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引用次数: 0
Prognostic Decision Making to extend a platform useful life under service constraint 在服务约束下,预测决策以延长平台的使用寿命
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036397
Nathalie Herr, J. Nicod, C. Varnier
This paper adresses the problem of optimizing the useful life of a heterogeneous distributed platform which has to produce a given production service. The purpose is to provide a production scheduling that maximizes the production horizon. The use of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) results in the form of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) allows to adapt the schedule to the wear and tear of equipment. This work comes within the scope of Prognostics Decision Making (DM). Each considered machine is supposed to be able to provide several throughputs corresponding to different operating conditions. The key point is to select the appropriate profile for each machine during the whole useful life of the platform. Many heuristics are proposed to cope with this decision problem and are compared through simulation results. Simulations assess the efficiency of these heuristics. Distance to the theoretical maximal value comes close to 10% for the most efficient ones. A repair module performing a revision of the schedules provided by the heuristics is moreover proposed to enhance the results. First results are promising.
本文解决了异构分布式平台的使用寿命优化问题,该平台必须产生给定的生产服务。其目的是提供一个最大限度地提高生产水平的生产调度。使用剩余使用寿命(RUL)形式的预测和健康管理(PHM)可以根据设备的磨损情况调整时间表。这项工作属于预测决策(DM)的范围。每台被考虑的机器都应该能够提供与不同操作条件相对应的几个吞吐量。关键是要在平台的整个使用寿命期间为每台机器选择合适的型材。针对这一决策问题,提出了多种启发式算法,并通过仿真结果进行了比较。模拟评估这些启发式的效率。对于最有效的,到理论最大值的距离接近10%。此外,还提出了一个修复模块,对启发式算法提供的时间表进行修正,以增强结果。初步结果令人鼓舞。
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引用次数: 7
A Prognostic method for DC-DC converters under variable operating conditions 变工况下DC-DC变换器的预测方法
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036375
Yi Wu, You-ren Wang, Yuanyuan Jiang, Quan Sun
Prognosis of DC-DC power converters is necessary in embedded and safety critical applications to prevent further damages. However, most of the prognostic methods of power converters are focus on the critical components of the converters. Furthermore, the methods seldom consider the effect of changes in operating conditions (e.g. power supply and load). In order to address these problems, an innovative system-level fault characteristic parameter (FCP) represents the degradation status of the entire converter is extracted, and a prognostic method of DC-DC converters based on the degradation trend prediction of the FCP is proposed. Firstly, the effect of component-level degradation on the overall performance of the DC-DC converters is studied. Then, a performance parameter of DC-DC converters which is sensitive to the degradation of all critical components is chosen, and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model is used to convert the performance parameter to the FCP under predetermined normal condition to eliminate the influence of changes in operating conditions. Finally, the trend prediction of the FCP is performed based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to realize the prognosis of DC-DC converters. A Boost converter is taken as an illustrative example. Results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
在嵌入式和安全关键应用中,对DC-DC电源转换器进行预估是必要的,以防止进一步损坏。然而,大多数电源变换器的预测方法都集中在变换器的关键部件上。此外,这些方法很少考虑运行条件(如电源和负载)变化的影响。为了解决这些问题,创新性地提取了代表整个变换器退化状态的系统级故障特征参数(FCP),并提出了一种基于FCP退化趋势预测的DC-DC变换器预测方法。首先,研究了元件级退化对DC-DC变换器整体性能的影响。然后,选择对所有关键部件退化敏感的DC-DC变换器性能参数,并利用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型将性能参数转换为预定正常状态下的FCP,以消除运行条件变化的影响。最后,基于高斯过程回归(GPR)对FCP进行趋势预测,实现对DC-DC变换器的预测。以升压变换器为例。结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
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引用次数: 7
Implementation of Condition Based Maintenance in manufacturing industry - A pilot case study 基于状态的维修在制造业中的实施-一个试点案例研究
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036377
A. Rastegari, M. Bengtsson
This paper presents a guide for implementation of Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) in a manufacturing industry, considering the technical constituents and organizational aspects when implementing CBM. The empirical base for the study is a case study from a major manufacturing site in Sweden. The data was collected during a pilot project to implement CBM at the case company. The purpose of the pilot study at the company was to implement online condition monitoring on some of the critical components in the hardening process. Hereby, two of the main online condition monitoring techniques namely vibration analysis and Shock Pulse Method (SPM) have been implemented and tested on electric motors to monitor bearing conditions. The paper presents the process of implementation and the elements included in this process. Some of the main elements in the implementation process are selection of the components to be monitored, techniques and technologies as well as installation of the technologies and finally how to analyze the results from the condition monitoring. The data from online condition monitoring on the electric motors, driving the furnace fans, are recorded and presented in the paper including breakdown data on two objects. This information is leading to useful and reliable knowledge for maintenance work to be cost effective and be able to increase the overall equipment availability (OEA). In addition to this, the result indicates to what extent advanced CBM practices are applicable in the hardening environment in the manufacturing company and it provides guidance for further research and development in this area. The paper concludes with a discussion on possible future trends and research areas, needed to increase the effective and efficient use of CBM.
本文介绍了在制造业中实施基于状态的维护(CBM)的指南,考虑了实施CBM时的技术组成部分和组织方面。本研究的实证基础是瑞典一个主要制造基地的案例研究。这些数据是在案例公司实施CBM的试点项目期间收集的。该公司试点研究的目的是对硬化过程中的一些关键部件进行在线状态监测。为此,对两种主要的在线状态监测技术即振动分析和冲击脉冲法(SPM)在电动机上进行了实现和测试,以监测轴承状态。本文介绍了该方案的实施过程以及实施过程中所包含的要素。实施过程中的一些主要内容是要监测的部件,技术和技术的选择以及技术的安装,最后是如何分析状态监测的结果。本文记录并介绍了驱动电炉风机的电动机在线状态监测数据,包括两个对象的击穿数据。这些信息为维护工作提供了有用和可靠的知识,使其具有成本效益,并能够提高整体设备可用性(OEA)。此外,该结果还表明了先进的煤层气实践在制造企业硬化环境中的适用程度,并为该领域的进一步研究和开发提供了指导。论文最后讨论了未来可能的趋势和研究领域,以提高CBM的有效和高效利用。
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引用次数: 16
A particle filtering-based approach for remaining useful life predication of rolling element bearings 基于粒子滤波的滚动轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036367
Naipeng Li, Y. Lei, Zongyao Liu, Jing Lin
Rolling element bearings are one of the most widely used components in rotating machinery. However, they are also the components which frequently suffer from damage. Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of rolling element bearings has received considerable attention, since it can avoid failure risks, and ensure availability, reliability and security. Model-based methods are commonly used in RUL prediction because of their high accuracy in long-time prediction. In model-based methods, a degradation indicator which describes the whole degradation process of bearings, however, is very critical but difficult to be extracted. A model function, used to predict the evolution trend and the RUL of bearings, is difficult to develop as well. In this paper, a particle filtering (PF)-based approach is developed to predict the RUL of rolling element bearings. In this approach, two modules are included, i.e. indicator calculation module and PF-based prediction module. In the first module, a new degradation indicator is calculated based on correlation matrix clustering and weight algorithm. This indicator fuses different characteristics of multiple features, includes more fault information and therefore has a better prediction tendency. In the second module, a PF-based approach is proposed to predict the RUL of bearings. Different from the traditional PF-based approach, a new algorithm of parameter initialization is introduced to calculate the initial parameters of the state space model. Experimental data of rolling element bearings are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. For comparison, another RUL prediction approach based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is also utilized to process the experimental data. The result shows that the proposed approach can effectively calculate the appropriate degradation indicator, initialize the model parameters and perform better in RUL prediction than the ANFIS-based approach for rolling element bearings.
滚动轴承是旋转机械中应用最广泛的部件之一。然而,它们也是经常遭受损坏的部件。滚动轴承剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测由于可以避免失效风险,并确保可用性、可靠性和安全性而受到相当大的关注。基于模型的预测方法由于在长时间预测中具有较高的准确性而被广泛应用于RUL预测中。然而,在基于模型的方法中,描述轴承整个退化过程的退化指标非常关键,但难以提取。用于预测轴承演化趋势和RUL的模型函数也难以开发。本文提出了一种基于粒子滤波(PF)的滚动轴承RUL预测方法。该方法包括两个模块,即指标计算模块和基于pf的预测模块。在第一个模块中,基于相关矩阵聚类和权重算法计算新的退化指标。该指标融合了多个特征的不同特征,包含较多的故障信息,具有较好的预测倾向。在第二个模块中,提出了一种基于pf的方法来预测轴承的RUL。与传统的基于pf的方法不同,引入了一种新的参数初始化算法来计算状态空间模型的初始参数。用滚动轴承的实验数据验证了该方法的有效性。为了比较,本文还采用了另一种基于自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)的RUL预测方法来处理实验数据。结果表明,该方法可以有效地计算适当的退化指标,初始化模型参数,并且在滚动轴承RUL预测方面优于基于anfiss的方法。
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引用次数: 29
Progress towards prognostic health management of passive components in advanced small modular reactors 先进小型模块化反应堆中无源组件的预后健康管理进展
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036399
R. Meyer, P. Ramuhalli, E. Hirt, A. Pardini, J. Suter, M. Prowant
Sustainable nuclear power to promote energy security and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are two key national energy priorities. The development of deployable small modular reactors (SMRs) is expected to support these objectives by developing technologies that improve the reliability, sustain safety, and improve affordability of new reactors. Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Prognostic health management (PHM) systems can benefit both the safety and economics of deploying AdvSMRs and can play an essential role in managing the inspection and maintenance of passive components in AdvSMR systems. This paper describes progress on development of an experimental setup for testing and validation of PHM systems for AdvSMR passive components. The experimental set-up for validation of prognostic algorithms is focused on thermal creep degradation as the prototypic degradation mechanism. The test bed enables accelerated thermal creep aging of materials relevant to AdvSMRs along with multiple nondestructive evaluation (NDE) measurements for assessment of thermal creep damage. NDE techniques include eddy current, magnetic Barkhausen noise (MBN), and linear and non-linear ultrasonic measurements. Details of the test-bed design as well as initial measurements results for specimens at different levels of thermal creep damage are presented.
促进能源安全和减少温室气体排放的可持续核能是国家能源工作的两大重点。可部署小型模块化反应堆(smr)的开发有望通过开发提高可靠性、维持安全性和提高新反应堆的可负担性的技术来支持这些目标。先进smr (advsmr)是指基于先进反应堆概念的模块化的特定类别的smr。预诊健康管理(PHM)系统在AdvSMR系统的安全性和经济性方面都有好处,并且在管理AdvSMR系统中无源组件的检查和维护方面发挥着重要作用。本文描述了用于AdvSMR无源元件的PHM系统测试和验证的实验装置的开发进展。验证预测算法的实验设置集中在热蠕变退化作为原型退化机制。该试验台能够加速与advsmr相关的材料的热蠕变老化,以及用于评估热蠕变损伤的多种无损评估(NDE)测量。无损检测技术包括涡流、磁巴克豪森噪声(MBN)以及线性和非线性超声测量。详细介绍了试验台的设计以及不同热蠕变损伤水平下试样的初步测量结果。
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引用次数: 4
Detection and classification for faults in drilling process using vibration analysis 振动分析在钻井过程故障检测与分类中的应用
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036393
Adarsh Kumar, J. Ramkumar, N. Verma, Sonal Dixit
In this era of flexible manufacturing systems, increase in demand of automatic and unattended machining process is very high. Thus arise the need for proper online tool condition monitoring methods, in order to minimize error and waste of work-material. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bayes classifier are used to develop such a system for automatic drilling operations with the help of vibration signals. The performances of models generated by these classifiers are compared with each other in order to establish the best method. As the vibration signals were acquired under different drilling parameters, this study also tries to understand the events in drilling process that help in ease of fault classification. Three different kinds of wears were studied and later compared to understand the degree or magnitude of effect of wears on the drilling process and signals.
在这个柔性制造系统的时代,对自动化和无人值守加工过程的需求增加非常高。因此,需要适当的在线工具状态监测方法,以尽量减少误差和工件的浪费。本研究采用支持向量机(SVM)、人工神经网络(ANN)和贝叶斯分类器等方法,利用振动信号开发了自动钻井作业系统。将这些分类器生成的模型的性能进行比较,以确定最佳的分类方法。由于在不同钻井参数下获得了振动信号,本研究还试图了解钻井过程中的事件,从而便于故障分类。研究了三种不同类型的磨损,并对其进行了比较,以了解磨损对钻井过程和信号的影响程度或程度。
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引用次数: 14
A self-cognizant dynamic system approach for battery state of health estimation 电池健康状态估计的自认知动态系统方法
Pub Date : 2014-06-22 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036390
Guangxing Bai, Pingfeng Wang
Accurate estimation of the state-of-charge (SoC) and state-of-health (SoH) for an operating battery, as a critical task for battery health management, greatly depends on the validity and generalizability of battery models. Due to the variability and uncertainties involved in battery design, manufacturing, and operation, developing a generally applicable battery physical model is a big challenge. To eliminate the dependency of SoC and SoH estimation on battery physical models, this paper presents a generic data-driven approach for lithium-ion battery health management that integrates an artificial neural network (ANN) with a dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) algorithm. The ANN is trained offline to model the battery terminal voltages to be used by the DEKF. With the trained ANN, the DEKF algorithm is then employed online for SoC and SoH estimation, where voltage outputs from the trained ANN model are used in DEKF state-space equations to replace the battery physical model. Experimental results are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed model-free approach for battery health management.
准确估计电池的荷电状态(SoC)和健康状态(SoH)是电池健康管理的一项关键任务,在很大程度上取决于电池模型的有效性和可泛化性。由于电池设计、制造和运行的可变性和不确定性,开发一种普遍适用的电池物理模型是一项巨大的挑战。为了消除SoC和SoH估计对电池物理模型的依赖,本文提出了一种通用的数据驱动锂离子电池健康管理方法,该方法将人工神经网络(ANN)与双扩展卡尔曼滤波(DEKF)算法相结合。人工神经网络离线训练,以模拟电池终端电压,以供DEKF使用。利用训练好的神经网络,DEKF算法在线用于SoC和SoH估计,其中训练好的神经网络模型的电压输出用于DEKF状态空间方程,以取代电池物理模型。实验结果证明了所开发的无模型电池健康管理方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2014 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management
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