Social media data present challenges for forecasters since one must convert text into data and deal with issues related to these measures being collected at different frequencies and volumes than traditional financial data. In this article, we use a deep learning algorithm to measure sentiment within Twitter messages on an hourly basis and introduce a new method to undertake mixed data sampling (MIDAS) that allows for a weaker discounting of historical data that is well-suited for this new data source. To evaluate the performance of approach relative to alternative MIDAS strategies, we conduct an out of sample forecasting exercise for the consumer confidence index with both traditional econometric strategies and machine learning algorithms. Irrespective of the estimator used to conduct forecasts, our results show that (i) including consumer sentiment measures from Twitter greatly improves forecast accuracy and (ii) there are substantial gains from our proposed MIDAS procedure relative to common alternatives.
{"title":"Does High Frequency Social Media Data Improve Forecasts of Low Frequency Consumer Confidence Measures?","authors":"Steven F. Lehrer, Tian Xie, T. Zeng","doi":"10.1093/jjfinec/nbz037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbz037","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Social media data present challenges for forecasters since one must convert text into data and deal with issues related to these measures being collected at different frequencies and volumes than traditional financial data. In this article, we use a deep learning algorithm to measure sentiment within Twitter messages on an hourly basis and introduce a new method to undertake mixed data sampling (MIDAS) that allows for a weaker discounting of historical data that is well-suited for this new data source. To evaluate the performance of approach relative to alternative MIDAS strategies, we conduct an out of sample forecasting exercise for the consumer confidence index with both traditional econometric strategies and machine learning algorithms. Irrespective of the estimator used to conduct forecasts, our results show that (i) including consumer sentiment measures from Twitter greatly improves forecast accuracy and (ii) there are substantial gains from our proposed MIDAS procedure relative to common alternatives.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"81 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130327610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting what future changes in technology may occur is often an impossible endeavor. Designing effective regulatory policies around changing technologies is even more difficult, as it requires understanding how those changes may alter market conditions that often render such policies obsolete or even counterproductive. This report draws on a sizable history of past regulatory and antitrust interventions whose results demonstrate that: • In a fast-changing industry, it is often very difficult to predict developments that dramatically change the market. • In industries characterized by rapid technological change, regulation often leads to counterproductive constraints on firms. Moreover, history shows that such counterproductive regulations are often hard to lift and stay in place for a long time. • The wireless industry is in the midst of a major technological change, a move to 5G, and competitors have already successfully entered with new business models (cable companies, DISH, and others, including Google and other tech companies). As a result, predicting future market conditions is particularly difficult. • Therefore, at this time the regulators should be particularly cautious intervening.
{"title":"The Effects of Rapid Technological Change on Regulatory Policies in the Communications Sector","authors":"R. Crandall","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3244044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3244044","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting what future changes in technology may occur is often an impossible endeavor. Designing effective regulatory policies around changing technologies is even more difficult, as it requires understanding how those changes may alter market conditions that often render such policies obsolete or even counterproductive. This report draws on a sizable history of past regulatory and antitrust interventions whose results demonstrate that: \u0000• In a fast-changing industry, it is often very difficult to predict developments that dramatically change the market. \u0000• In industries characterized by rapid technological change, regulation often leads to counterproductive constraints on firms. Moreover, history shows that such counterproductive regulations are often hard to lift and stay in place for a long time. \u0000• The wireless industry is in the midst of a major technological change, a move to 5G, and competitors have already successfully entered with new business models (cable companies, DISH, and others, including Google and other tech companies). As a result, predicting future market conditions is particularly difficult. \u0000• Therefore, at this time the regulators should be particularly cautious intervening.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124470347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Information goods (or information for short) play an essential role in modern economies. We consider a trading framework where information has some idiosyncratic value for each consumer, exerts externalities and can be freely replicated and transmitted through links in a communication network. Prices paid for information are determined via the (asymmetric) Nash Bargaining Solution with endogenous disagreement points. This decentralized approach leads to unique prices and payoffs in any exogenous network. We use these payoffs to find connection structures that emerge under different externality regimes in pre-trade network formation stage. An application to citation graphs results in eigenvector-like measures of intellectual influence.
{"title":"Communication Networks, Externalities and the Price of Information","authors":"A. Polanski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3107675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3107675","url":null,"abstract":"Information goods (or information for short) play an essential role in modern economies. We consider a trading framework where information has some idiosyncratic value for each consumer, exerts externalities and can be freely replicated and transmitted through links in a communication network. Prices paid for information are determined via the (asymmetric) Nash Bargaining Solution with endogenous disagreement points. This decentralized approach leads to unique prices and payoffs in any exogenous network. We use these payoffs to find connection structures that emerge under different externality regimes in pre-trade network formation stage. An application to citation graphs results in eigenvector-like measures of intellectual influence.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116303141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the dual relationship between market structure and prices and between market structure and investment in mobile telecommunications. Using a uniquely constructed panel of mobile operators’ prices and accounting information across 33 OECD countries between 2002 and 2014, we document that more concentrated markets lead to higher end user prices. Furthermore, they also lead to higher investment per mobile operator, though the impact on total investment is not conclusive. Our findings are not only relevant for the current consolidation wave in the telecommunications industry. More generally, they stress that competition and regulatory authorities should take seriously the potential trade-off between market power effects and efficiency gains stemming from agreements between firms.
{"title":"Evaluating Market Consolidation in Mobile Communications","authors":"Christos Genakos, T. Valletti, F. Verboven","doi":"10.1093/EPOLIC/EIX020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EPOLIC/EIX020","url":null,"abstract":"We study the dual relationship between market structure and prices and between market structure and investment in mobile telecommunications. Using a uniquely constructed panel of mobile operators’ prices and accounting information across 33 OECD countries between 2002 and 2014, we document that more concentrated markets lead to higher end user prices. Furthermore, they also lead to higher investment per mobile operator, though the impact on total investment is not conclusive. Our findings are not only relevant for the current consolidation wave in the telecommunications industry. More generally, they stress that competition and regulatory authorities should take seriously the potential trade-off between market power effects and efficiency gains stemming from agreements between firms.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115611245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines how information and communication technology (ICT) complements carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to influence inclusive human development in forty-four Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000–2012. ICT is measured with internet penetration and mobile phone penetration. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. The findings broadly show that ICT can be employed to dampen the potentially negative effect of environmental pollution on human development. We establish that: (i) ICT complements CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption to increase inclusive development; (ii) ICT interacts with CO2 intensity to negatively affect inclusive human development and (iii) the net effect on inclusive human development is positive from the complementarity between mobile phones and CO2 emissions per capita. Conversely, we also establish evidence of net negative effects. Fortunately, the corresponding ICT thresholds at which these net negative effects can be completely dampened are within policy range, notably: 50 (per 100 people) mobile phone penetration for CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption and CO2 intensity. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.
{"title":"Environmental Degradation, ICT and Inclusive Development in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"S. Asongu, Sara le Roux, N. Biekpe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3047015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3047015","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how information and communication technology (ICT) complements carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to influence inclusive human development in forty-four Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000–2012. ICT is measured with internet penetration and mobile phone penetration. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. The findings broadly show that ICT can be employed to dampen the potentially negative effect of environmental pollution on human development. We establish that: (i) ICT complements CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption to increase inclusive development; (ii) ICT interacts with CO2 intensity to negatively affect inclusive human development and (iii) the net effect on inclusive human development is positive from the complementarity between mobile phones and CO2 emissions per capita. Conversely, we also establish evidence of net negative effects. Fortunately, the corresponding ICT thresholds at which these net negative effects can be completely dampened are within policy range, notably: 50 (per 100 people) mobile phone penetration for CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption and CO2 intensity. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"142 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116532611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Face-to-face communication drastically increases cooperation rates in social dilemmas. We test which factors are the most important drivers of this communication gap. We distinguish three main categories. First, communication may decrease social distance. Second, communication may enable subjects to assess their opponent’s cooperativeness (“type recognition”) and condition their own action on that information. Third, communication allows subjects to make promises, which create commitment for subjects who do not want to break a promise. We find that communication increases cooperation by 56 percentage points. Roughly 74% of this effect can be attributed to type recognition, the remaining 26% to a commitment value. We do not find evidence that social distance plays a role.
{"title":"The Sources of the Communication Gap","authors":"Simin He, T. Offerman, J. Ven","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2598441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2598441","url":null,"abstract":"Face-to-face communication drastically increases cooperation rates in social dilemmas. We test which factors are the most important drivers of this communication gap. We distinguish three main categories. First, communication may decrease social distance. Second, communication may enable subjects to assess their opponent’s cooperativeness (“type recognition”) and condition their own action on that information. Third, communication allows subjects to make promises, which create commitment for subjects who do not want to break a promise. We find that communication increases cooperation by 56 percentage points. Roughly 74% of this effect can be attributed to type recognition, the remaining 26% to a commitment value. We do not find evidence that social distance plays a role.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122908297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
At the age of global business and globalizing system of education we believe that along with learning cultures awareness of national features undoubtedly helps to communicate interculturally.In the article we are going to highlight the necessity to manage cultural diversity, to distinguish the major Russian national characteristics which need to be taken into account while communicating across cultures, to emphasize how important is to consider national features in successful cultural diversity management.
{"title":"Considering National Features in Successful Cultural Diversity Management and Cross-Cultural Communication","authors":"O. Pecherskaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2579286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2579286","url":null,"abstract":"At the age of global business and globalizing system of education we believe that along with learning cultures awareness of national features undoubtedly helps to communicate interculturally.In the article we are going to highlight the necessity to manage cultural diversity, to distinguish the major Russian national characteristics which need to be taken into account while communicating across cultures, to emphasize how important is to consider national features in successful cultural diversity management.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"322 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124558668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This dissertation argues that the Government of the People’s Republic of China, when it made the decision to import a quota of Hollywood films in 1994 to revive the failing domestic film industry, had different possible criteria in mind. This project has studied four of them: first, importing films that gave a negative image of the United States; second, importing films that featured Chinese talent or themes; third, importing films that were box office hits in the United States; and fourth, importing films with a strong technological innovation ingredient. In order to find out the most important criteria for the Chinese Government, this dissertation offers a dataset that analyzes a population of 262 Hollywood films released in the PRC between 1994 and 2010. For each unit, a method has been developed to compile data that will determine whether the film reflects any of the four criteria, and findings in the form of yearly percentages have been drawn. Results show that, out of the four studied criteria, the two predominant reasons for China to import films were technological innovation and box office hits. This tells us that, at this point, the Chinese Government shows more interest in obtaining big revenues and learning from technically innovative American films than in delivering underlying political messages. This dissertation contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the content of all the films imported by China between 1994 and 2010, while integrating in the analysis variables based on the existing knowledge.
{"title":"Hollywood Films in the Non-Western World: What are the Criteria Followed by the Chinese Government When Choosing Hollywood Film Imports?","authors":"Marta Forns","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2509892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2509892","url":null,"abstract":"This dissertation argues that the Government of the People’s Republic of China, when it made the decision to import a quota of Hollywood films in 1994 to revive the failing domestic film industry, had different possible criteria in mind. This project has studied four of them: first, importing films that gave a negative image of the United States; second, importing films that featured Chinese talent or themes; third, importing films that were box office hits in the United States; and fourth, importing films with a strong technological innovation ingredient. In order to find out the most important criteria for the Chinese Government, this dissertation offers a dataset that analyzes a population of 262 Hollywood films released in the PRC between 1994 and 2010. For each unit, a method has been developed to compile data that will determine whether the film reflects any of the four criteria, and findings in the form of yearly percentages have been drawn. Results show that, out of the four studied criteria, the two predominant reasons for China to import films were technological innovation and box office hits. This tells us that, at this point, the Chinese Government shows more interest in obtaining big revenues and learning from technically innovative American films than in delivering underlying political messages. This dissertation contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the content of all the films imported by China between 1994 and 2010, while integrating in the analysis variables based on the existing knowledge.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126593007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.15341/JBE(2155-7950)/01.07.2015/002
C. Reaiche
Developing countries are finding that maintaining adequate Information Technology (IT) policies is still a challenge if they aim to their socio-economic development. This paper will explore the argument that some developing countries could benefit from a systems’ view approach to policy that enriches the process of a country’s socio-economic development. It attempts to gain an understanding of the current and potential impact of national IT policies and strategies in Venezuela and highlights a number of preliminary suggestions to incorporate a systems view (Checkland, 1981) into the design of IT policies.
{"title":"A Systems View to IT Policy in Developing Countries: An Example from Venezuela","authors":"C. Reaiche","doi":"10.15341/JBE(2155-7950)/01.07.2015/002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15341/JBE(2155-7950)/01.07.2015/002","url":null,"abstract":"Developing countries are finding that maintaining adequate Information Technology (IT) policies is still a challenge if they aim to their socio-economic development. This paper will explore the argument that some developing countries could benefit from a systems’ view approach to policy that enriches the process of a country’s socio-economic development. It attempts to gain an understanding of the current and potential impact of national IT policies and strategies in Venezuela and highlights a number of preliminary suggestions to incorporate a systems view (Checkland, 1981) into the design of IT policies.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130934051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Social media posts can have significant information impact on domains and subject matter opinions. Stock prices, volumes and metrics are influenced by turbulence in their information ecosystem. Analyses of digital information networks and social media information events have shown that information artifacts affect stock performance with varying degrees of disconnectedness to fundamentals. It is therefore important to gain clarity and understanding of how the sentiments associated with information artifacts in Twitter (due to its extensive usage in relevant signaling), are associated with stock performance. We perform an exploratory analysis to study tweet sentiment and stock price fluctuations, and associated metrics, in the context of eDominance. Our analysis of tweet information content deploying textual analytics, identifies patterns in tweet behaviors, changes in sentiment and key metrics.
{"title":"Going Where the Tweets Get Moving! An Explorative Analysis of Tweets Sentiments in the Stock Market","authors":"Jim Samuel, A. Kretinin, R. Kashyap","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3889567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3889567","url":null,"abstract":"Social media posts can have significant information impact on domains and subject matter opinions. Stock prices, volumes and metrics are influenced by turbulence in their information ecosystem. Analyses of digital information networks and social media information events have shown that information artifacts affect stock performance with varying degrees of disconnectedness to fundamentals. It is therefore important to gain clarity and understanding of how the sentiments associated with information artifacts in Twitter (due to its extensive usage in relevant signaling), are associated with stock performance. We perform an exploratory analysis to study tweet sentiment and stock price fluctuations, and associated metrics, in the context of eDominance. Our analysis of tweet information content deploying textual analytics, identifies patterns in tweet behaviors, changes in sentiment and key metrics.","PeriodicalId":378066,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Communications (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127152522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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