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Assessing the maturity of the current global system for combating financial and cyber fraud 评估当前全球打击金融和网络欺诈体系的成熟度
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI: 10.59170/stattrans-2023-013
O. Kuzmenko, H. Yarovenko, L. Perkhun
The purpose of the article is to assess the maturity of systems for counteracting financial and cyber fraud with the view of their future integration at global-level. The calculations made by the authors were based on indicators for 76 countries, which characterized each country's level of cybersecurity and its ability to combat financial fraud in 2018. After optimising the input data and selecting relevant indicators, the authors built an integrated cybersecurity index using the Sundarovsky convolution method. Sigma-limited parameterisation and Pareto-optimisation were then used to identify the determinants of the ability to counter financial and cyber fraud, which were used as predictors. Nonlinear regression was applied to determine the dependency of the integrated cybersecurity index on the government efficiency index, the ease of doing business and on the crime indices. On this basis, the authors conducted a bifurcation analysis of the maturity of current global system for combating financial and cyber fraud and produced its phase portraits. It was found to be mature (“Government Efficiency Index – Ease of Doing Business” and “Ease of Doing Business – Crime Index”) and insufficient mature (“Government Efficiency Index – Crime Index”), with the components' imbalance indicating high system's sensitivity to react on changes. The constructed 'Equilibrium States' phase portraits showed non-equilibrium phase portraits of the 'saddle' type. The obtained results made it possible to identify determinants of a global integrated system's instability to combat financial and cyber fraud.
本文的目的是从未来全球一体化的角度来评估对抗金融和网络欺诈系统的成熟度。作者根据76个国家的指标进行了计算,这些指标描述了每个国家在2018年的网络安全水平及其打击金融欺诈的能力。在对输入数据进行优化并选取相关指标后,采用Sundarovsky卷积法构建了网络安全综合指数。然后使用西格玛有限参数化和帕累托优化来确定对抗金融和网络欺诈能力的决定因素,这些决定因素被用作预测因素。采用非线性回归方法确定综合网络安全指数对政府效率指数、营商便利度指数和犯罪指数的依赖关系。在此基础上,作者对当前全球打击金融和网络欺诈体系的成熟度进行了分岔分析,并绘制了其阶段图。结果表明,该指标成熟(“政府效率指数-营商便利度”和“营商便利度-犯罪指数”),不成熟(“政府效率指数-犯罪指数”),各组成部分的不平衡表明系统对变化的反应敏感性高。构建的“平衡态”相画像显示出“马鞍”型的非平衡相画像。获得的结果使识别全球综合系统不稳定性的决定因素成为可能,以打击金融和网络欺诈。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative analysis of the principal component method and parallel analysis in working with official statistical data 官方统计数据处理中主成分法和平行分析的比较分析
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI: 10.59170/stattrans-2023-011
Halyna Holubova
The dynamic development of the digitized society generates large-scale information data flows. Therefore, data need to be compressed in a way allowing its content to remain complete and informative. In order for the above to be achieved, it is advisable to use the principal component method whose main task is to reduce the dimension of multidimensional space with a minimal loss of information. The article describes the basic conceptual approaches to the definition of principle components. Moreover, the methodological principles of selecting the main components are presented. Among the many ways to select principle components, the easiest way is selecting the first k-number of components with the largest eigenvalues or to determine the percentage of the total variance explained by each component. Many statistical data packages often use the Kaiser method for this purpose. However, this method fails to take into account the fact that when dealing with random data (noise), it is possible to identify components with eigenvalues greater than one, or in other words, to select redundant components. We conclude that when selecting the main components, the classical mechanisms should be used with caution. The Parallel analysis method uses multiple data simulations to overcome the problem of random errors. This method assumes that the components of real data must have greater eigenvalues than the parallel components derived from simulated data which have the same sample size and design, variance and number of variables. A comparative analysis of the eigenvalues was performed by means of two methods: the Kaiser criterion and the parallel Horn analysis on the example of several data sets. The study shows that the method of parallel analysis produces more valid results with actual data sets. We believe that the main advantage of Parallel analysis is its ability to model the process of selecting the required number of main components by determining the point at which they cannot be distinguished from those generated by simulated noise.
数字化社会的动态发展产生了大规模的信息数据流。因此,数据需要以一种允许其内容保持完整和信息性的方式进行压缩。为了实现上述目标,建议使用主成分方法,其主要任务是在信息损失最小的情况下降低多维空间的维数。这篇文章描述了定义主要组成部分的基本概念方法。此外,还介绍了选择主要组成部分的方法学原则。在选择主成分的许多方法中,最简单的方法是选择具有最大特征值的第一个k个成分,或者确定每个成分所解释的总方差的百分比。为此,许多统计数据包经常使用Kaiser方法。然而,这种方法没有考虑到这样一个事实,即在处理随机数据(噪声)时,可以识别特征值大于1的分量,或者换句话说,可以选择冗余分量。我们得出的结论是,在选择主要组件时,应谨慎使用经典机制。并行分析方法使用多个数据模拟来克服随机误差的问题。该方法假设真实数据的分量必须比从具有相同样本量和设计、方差和变量数量的模拟数据中导出的并行分量具有更大的特征值。通过两种方法对特征值进行了比较分析:Kaiser准则和对几个数据集的并行Horn分析。研究表明,并行分析方法与实际数据集相比能产生更有效的结果。我们认为,并行分析的主要优点是它能够通过确定无法将所需数量的主要成分与模拟噪声产生的成分区分开来的点来对选择所需数量主要成分的过程进行建模。
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引用次数: 0
A new industrial strategy for Europe – new indicators of the results of its implementation 一项新的欧洲工业战略-其实施结果的新指标
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI: 10.59170/stattrans-2023-012
Oleg Krekhivskyi, O. Salikhova
This paper discusses the experiences resulting from EU’s adoption and implementation of a wide variety of policy measures in response to the COVID-19 crisis. These measures included stimulating the relocation and expansion of manufacturing to reduce vulnerability, depending on imports, ensuring the stability and development of industrial production. Using the example of the pharmaceutical industry in EU27 in the years 1995–2018, the study proposes and tests a new approach to assessing the consequences of relocation policies aimed at developing the local production potential, increasing the value added by activity, and expanding the share of local value added in industry exports. Specifically, the focus is on the formation of statistical analysis tools for assessing the changes of the specialisation and identifying the country's comparative advantages. The authors propose new indicators: RSP – coefficient of Revealed Specialisation of Production, CAVA – coefficient of Comparative Advantage in Value Added by Activity and EVA – coefficient of Comparative Advantages in the Domestic Value Added Exports. Additionally, formulas for their calculation are provided which allow the assessment of the position of Ukraine’s industries among a reference group, widening the ‘revealed comparative advantage’ concept. Finally, a test of the new methodology showed that it can be used to identify the comparative advantages of EU member states supported by state assistance programmes involving the implementation of business projects which aim to develop domestic production.
本文讨论了欧盟为应对新冠肺炎危机而采取和实施各种政策措施的经验。这些措施包括刺激制造业的搬迁和扩张,以减少依赖进口的脆弱性,确保工业生产的稳定和发展。该研究以欧盟27国1995-2018年的制药行业为例,提出并测试了一种新的方法来评估搬迁政策的后果,该政策旨在开发当地生产潜力,增加活动增加值,并扩大当地增加值在行业出口中的份额。具体而言,重点是形成统计分析工具,以评估专业化的变化并确定国家的比较优势。作者提出了新的指标:RSP——显示的生产专业化系数,CAVA——按活动增加值的比较优势系数,EVA——国内增加值出口的比较优势的系数。此外,还提供了计算公式,可以评估乌克兰工业在参考群体中的地位,扩大了“揭示的比较优势”概念。最后,对新方法的测试表明,它可以用来确定由国家援助计划支持的欧盟成员国的比较优势,这些计划涉及实施旨在发展国内生产的商业项目。
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引用次数: 1
Sampling methods for the concentration parameter and discrete baseline of the Dirichlet Process 狄利克雷过程中浓度参数和离散基线的采样方法
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0040
Yang Liu, B. Nandram
Abstract There are many models in the current statistical literature for making inferences based on samples selected from a finite population. Parametric models may be problematic because statistical inference is sensitive to parametric assumptions. The Dirichlet process (DP) prior is very flexible and determines the complexity of the model. It is indexed by two hyper-parameters: the baseline distribution and concentration parameter. We address two distinct problems in the article. Firstly, we review the current sampling methods for the concentration parameter, which use the continuous baseline distribution. We compare three different methods: the adaptive rejection method, the mixture of Gammas method and the grid method. We also propose a new method based on the ratio of uniforms. Secondly, in practice, some survey responses are known to be discrete. If a continuous distribution is adopted as the baseline distribution, the model is misspecified and standard inference may be invalid. We propose a discrete baseline approach to the DP prior and sample the unobserved responses from the finite population both using a Polya urn scheme and a Multinomial distribution. We applied our discrete baseline approach to a Phytophthora data set.
摘要当前的统计文献中有许多模型用于根据从有限总体中选择的样本进行推断。参数模型可能有问题,因为统计推断对参数假设很敏感。狄利克雷过程(DP)先验是非常灵活的,并决定了模型的复杂性。它由两个超参数索引:基线分布和浓度参数。我们在文章中讨论了两个不同的问题。首先,我们回顾了目前使用连续基线分布的浓度参数采样方法。我们比较了三种不同的方法:自适应抑制方法、伽玛混合方法和网格方法。我们还提出了一种基于制服比例的新方法。其次,在实践中,一些调查答复是离散的。如果采用连续分布作为基线分布,则模型指定错误,标准推断可能无效。我们提出了一种DP先验的离散基线方法,并使用Polya-urn方案和多项式分布对有限总体中未观察到的响应进行采样。我们将离散基线方法应用于疫霉菌数据集。
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引用次数: 1
Comparison of confidence intervals for variance components in an unbalanced one-way random effects model 不平衡单向随机效应模型中方差分量置信区间的比较
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0047
Arisa Jiratampradab, Thidaporn Supapakorn, J. Suntornchost
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study and compare the methods for constructing confidence intervals for variance components in an unbalanced one-way random effects model. The methods are based on a classical exact, generalised pivotal quantity, a fiducial inference and a fiducial generalised pivotal quantity. The comparison of criteria involves the empirical coverage probability that maintains at the nominal confidence level of 0.95 and the shortest average length of the confidence interval. The simulation results show that the method based on the generalised pivotal quantity and the fiducial inference perform very well in terms of both the empirical coverage probability and the average length of the confidence interval. The classical exact method performs well in some situations, while the fiducial generalised pivotal quantity performs well in a very unbalanced design. Therefore, the method based on the generalised pivotal quantity is recommended for all situations.
摘要本文的目的是研究和比较不平衡单向随机效应模型中方差分量置信区间的构造方法。这些方法基于经典的精确、广义枢轴量、基准推断和基准广义枢轴量。标准的比较涉及保持在0.95的标称置信水平和置信区间的最短平均长度的经验覆盖概率。仿真结果表明,基于广义关键量和基准推理的方法在经验覆盖概率和置信区间平均长度方面都表现良好。经典精确方法在某些情况下表现良好,而基准广义关键量在非常不平衡的设计中表现良好。因此,建议在所有情况下使用基于广义关键量的方法。
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引用次数: 0
k-th record estimator of the scale parameter of the α-stable distribution α稳定分布标度参数的第k次记录估计
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0050
M. Stachura, Barbara Wodecka
Abstract Various techniques of scale parameter estimation have been proposed in the case of alpha stable distributions. In the paper, the authors present an estimation technique that involves the k-th record theory. Although this theory is over 40 years old, its implementation in the classical extreme value theory – being the other cornerstone of the presented approach – is quite new, and tempting. Several theoretical properties of the introduced scale parameter estimators are presented. With the use of Monte Carlo methods, a comparative analysis is performed between the approach based on k-th records and approaches based on Hill’s and Pickands’ estimators. Additionally, the paper uses a real-life data set to illustrate how to effectively apply the k-th record estimator of the scale parameter. The research indicates several advantages of the k-th record approach over its other counterparts, especially when dealing with incomplete information about the underlying sample.
摘要针对α稳定分布的情况,提出了各种尺度参数估计技术。在本文中,作者提出了一种涉及k记录理论的估计技术。尽管这一理论已有40多年的历史,但它在经典极值理论中的应用——作为本文方法的另一个基石——是相当新的,而且很诱人。给出了所引入的尺度参数估计器的几个理论性质。通过使用蒙特卡罗方法,在基于k记录的方法和基于Hill ' s和Pickands估计的方法之间进行了比较分析。此外,本文还使用实际数据集来说明如何有效地应用尺度参数的第k条记录估计量。研究表明,与其他同类方法相比,第k条记录方法有几个优点,特别是在处理有关底层样本的不完整信息时。
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引用次数: 0
Missing data estimation based on the chaining technique in survey sampling 基于链式技术的调查抽样缺失数据估计
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0044
N. S. Thakur, D. Shukla
Abstract Sample surveys are often affected by missing observations and non-response caused by the respondents’ refusal or unwillingness to provide the requested information or due to their memory failure. In order to substitute the missing data, a procedure called imputation is applied, which uses the available data as a tool for the replacement of the missing values. Two auxiliary variables create a chain which is used to substitute the missing part of the sample. The aim of the paper is to present the application of the Chain-type factor estimator as a means of source imputation for the non-response units in an incomplete sample. The proposed strategies were found to be more efficient and bias-controllable than similar estimation procedures described in the relevant literature. These techniques could also be made nearly unbiased in relation to other selected parametric values. The findings are supported by a numerical study involving the use of a dataset, proving that the proposed techniques outperform other similar ones.
摘要抽样调查往往会受到由于被调查者拒绝或不愿意提供被要求的信息或由于他们的记忆失败而导致的缺失观察和不回应的影响。为了替换缺失的数据,应用了一个称为imputation的过程,该过程使用可用数据作为替换缺失值的工具。两个辅助变量创建一个链,用于替换样本的缺失部分。本文的目的是提出链式因子估计器作为不完全样本中无响应单元的源估计手段的应用。与相关文献中描述的类似估计程序相比,所提出的策略更有效,偏差可控。这些技术也可以使相对于其他选定的参数值几乎无偏。这一发现得到了一项涉及使用数据集的数值研究的支持,证明了所提出的技术优于其他类似技术。
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引用次数: 0
The Weibull lifetime model with randomised failure-free time 随机无故障时间Weibull寿命模型
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0042
P. Sulewski, Magdalena Szymkowiak
Abstract The paper shows that treating failure-free time in the three-parameter Weibull distribution not a constant, but as a random variable makes the resulting distribution much more flexible at the expense of only one additional parameter.
摘要本文表明,将三参数威布尔分布中的无故障时间视为随机变量,而不是常数,这使得所得到的分布更加灵活,只需增加一个参数。
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引用次数: 0
Zero-modified Poisson-Modification of Quasi Lindley distribution and its application 拟Lindley分布的零修正poisson -修正及其应用
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0045
R. Tharshan, P. Wijekoon
Abstract The Poisson-Modification of Quasi Lindley (PMQL) distribution is a newly introduced mixed Poisson distribution for over-dispersed count data. The aim of this article is to introduce the Zero-modified PMQL (ZMPMQL) distribution as an alternative to the PMQL distribution in order to accommodate zero inflation/deflation. The method of obtaining the ZMPMQL distribution jointly with some of its important properties, namely the probability mass and distribution functions, mean, variance, index of dispersion, and quantile function are presented. Furthermore, some of its special cases are discussed. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is used for the unknown parameter estimation. A simulation study is conducted in order to evaluate the asymptotic theory of the ML estimation method and to show the superiority of the ML method over the method of moments estimation. The applicability of the introduced distribution is illustrated by using a real-world data set.
准林德利泊松修正(PMQL)分布是一种新引入的用于过分散计数数据的混合泊松分布。本文的目的是介绍零修改PMQL (ZMPMQL)发行版,作为PMQL发行版的替代方案,以适应零通胀/零通缩。给出了ZMPMQL分布的获取方法及其一些重要性质,即概率质量和分布函数、均值、方差、分散指数和分位数函数。此外,还讨论了一些特殊情况。采用最大似然估计方法对未知参数进行估计。为了评价机器学习估计方法的渐近理论,并证明机器学习方法相对于矩估计方法的优越性,进行了仿真研究。通过使用实际数据集说明了所引入的分布的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in the structure of household disposable income in selected countries as a reflection of crises after 2000 选定国家家庭可支配收入结构的变化反映了2000年后的危机
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0039
Richard Hindls, L. Marek, Stanislava Hronová
Abstract Wages and salaries represent the most important component of household disposable income. The aim of the article is to examine how the relationship between the shares of households’ wages and final consumption expenditure in their gross disposable income has developed over the past 20 years. The presented analysis uses publicly available national accounts data for 30 countries for the period of 2000–2019. The studied indicators include the proportion of households’ wages and salaries, and final consumption expenditure in their gross disposable income. Using the proposed method based on the evaluation of changes in the spatial map, it is possible to observe any significant changes in these proportion values in the years of financial crisis and recession, as well as in the years of prosperity. The procedure can therefore serve as an indicator of appreciable changes in economic development.
摘要工资和薪金是家庭可支配收入中最重要的组成部分。这篇文章的目的是研究在过去20年中,家庭工资和最终消费支出在其可支配总收入中的份额之间的关系是如何发展的。所提供的分析使用了2000年至2019年期间30个国家的公开国民账户数据。所研究的指标包括家庭工资和薪金的比例,以及最终消费支出占其可支配收入总额的比例。使用所提出的基于空间图变化评估的方法,可以观察到这些比例值在金融危机和衰退年份以及繁荣年份的任何重大变化。因此,该程序可以作为经济发展明显变化的指标。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Statistics in Transition
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