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2018 International Conference on Photovoltaic Science and Technologies (PVCon)最新文献

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Electro-Optical Analysis and Numerical Modeling of Cu2O as the Absorber Layer in Advanced Solar Cells Cu2O作为先进太阳能电池吸收层的电光分析与数值模拟
Pub Date : 2018-07-04 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8524000
C. Dumitru, L. Fara, Ørnulf Nordseth, I. Chilibon, Raj Kumar, B. Svensson, Florin Drăgan, Vlad Muscurel, D. Craciunescu, P. Sterian
Solar cells in tandem with metal-oxide heterojunctions are interesting from a development standpoint for the next step beyond silicon performance limitations in high-efficiency solar cells. High optical absorptance makes copper oxide a prospective absorber layer. This work is constituted as an overview on the original work of the authors, based on experimental analysis of the copper oxide absorber layer and numerical modeling of its electro-optical characteristics. Copper oxide films were synthesized by RF/DC magnetron sputtering on quartz substrates. The electro-optical and structural characteristics of the layer incorporating metal oxides have been investigated using SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy), SFM (Scanning Force Microscopy), Hall effect measurements, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and spectrofluorometry. The SEM analysis shows an increase of the grain size in the sample treated with rapid thermal annealing at 900 °C. SFM analysis shows that thermal annealing increases the surface roughness by a factor of 10. FTIR spectra show cupric oxide peaks from oxidation of the copper oxide at the quartz. A Silvaco Atlas model was implemented in order to study the electrical parameters of a metal-oxide heterojunction with Cu2O and AZO, mainly studying the effect of a buffer layer in the heterojunction structure, as well as varying the layer thickness, the doping level and the defect density for several materials in the structure. The OPAL 2 simulation platform was deployed to model the optical parameters of the heterojunction structure, including the reflectance, transmittance and absorptance.
从发展的角度来看,与金属氧化物异质结串联的太阳能电池很有趣,可以超越硅的性能限制,实现高效太阳能电池的下一步发展。高光吸收率使氧化铜成为一种有前途的吸收层。本文在对氧化铜吸收层进行实验分析并对其电光特性进行数值模拟的基础上,对前人的研究成果进行了综述。采用射频/直流磁控溅射技术在石英衬底上合成了氧化铜薄膜。利用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、扫描力显微镜(SFM)、霍尔效应测量、傅里叶变换红外光谱(FTIR)和荧光光谱法研究了含金属氧化物层的电光和结构特征。SEM分析表明,经过900℃快速退火处理的样品晶粒尺寸增大。SFM分析表明,热退火使表面粗糙度提高了10倍。红外光谱显示了石英中氧化铜的氧化峰。为了研究含Cu2O和AZO的金属氧化物异质结的电学参数,采用了Silvaco Atlas模型,主要研究了缓冲层对异质结结构的影响,以及结构中几种材料的层厚、掺杂水平和缺陷密度的变化。利用OPAL 2仿真平台对异质结结构的反射率、透射率和吸收率等光学参数进行了模拟。
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引用次数: 2
An Experimental Study on the Modeling of the PV Output 光伏发电输出模型的实验研究
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523960
F. Hocaoglu, Melih Kurekci, E. Akarslan, Fatih Serttaş
Accurate calculation of the power outputs of the modules under different solar radiation conditions is an important task to decide if it is feasible to construct a PV plant at the region or not. There are a lot of models that explore more accurate calculation using solar radiation values and the parameters of PV module. Unlike those models, a data based model is proposed in this paper. Before construction of the model, first an experimental setup is built and experiments are performed. During the experiments a pyranometer is positioned on the same angle with a PV module and both the solar radiations fall on the surface of the module and the power output of the module is measured and recorded. Secondly, the data is modeled using regression analysis. Consequently, the regression coefficients are calculated and the performance of the regression on modeling the PV output is examined. To measure the accuracy of the model, correlation of determination parameter and root mean square metric are calculated. It is argued that, it is possible to calculate the power output of the PV module in a good accuracy, in case PV output of the module is measured in a short period of time and the proposed approach is applied.
准确计算不同太阳辐射条件下组件的输出功率是决定该地区光伏电站建设是否可行的重要任务。有很多模型探索利用太阳辐射值和光伏组件参数进行更精确的计算。与这些模型不同,本文提出了一种基于数据的模型。在建立模型之前,首先建立实验装置并进行实验。在实验过程中,将辐射计与光伏组件放置在同一角度,太阳辐射均落在组件表面,并测量并记录组件的输出功率。其次,采用回归分析对数据进行建模。因此,计算了回归系数,并检验了回归对PV输出建模的性能。为了衡量模型的准确性,计算了确定参数与均方根度量的相关性。本文认为,如果在短时间内测量组件的光伏输出,并采用本文提出的方法,可以计算出较准确的光伏组件输出功率。
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引用次数: 1
D-STATCOM for a Distribution Network with Distributed PV Generation 分布式光伏发电配电网的D-STATCOM
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523892
W. Rohouma, R. Balog, A. Peerzada, M. Begovic
Power quality in an AC power distribution system is reduced by nonlinear loads which draw non-sinusoidal current. When this distorted current interacts with the line impedance of the distribution network (the grid), the system voltage becomes distorted which could adversely affect other electrical devices connected to the grid. In the traditional grid, this is compensated at the substation by the utility. Adding PV into the distribution system can complicate the situation when power flow reverses due to excess generation resulting in back-feeding into the grid. It has been proposed that the photovoltaic inverter should actively improve the power quality by compensating harmonic and reactive current. However, this adds complexity and cost to the inverter as well as reduces the inverter reliability. To maintain high power quality in the distribution system, it is necessary to develop a means to compensate for the reactive and harmonic currents locally. This paper investigates the use of a distribution static synchronous compensator (D-STATCOM) for harmonic power compensation in a distribution network. The proposed topology is based on a matrix converter topology (MC) which is controlled using model predictive control (MPC) which enables inductive energy storage instead of requiring electrolytic capacitors that have well-known failure modes. Compensating the harmonic current in the distribution system improves the overall reliability of the grid. Simulation is performed using MATLAB/Simulink to investigate the performance and capability. It is envisioned that the device can be deployed and dispatched by the utility as needed in the distribution network to prevent upstream-propagation of the harmonic current, which could lead to transformer overheating and other deleterious effects.
在交流配电系统中,非线性负载产生的非正弦电流会降低供电质量。当这种扭曲的电流与配电网(电网)的线路阻抗相互作用时,系统电压就会扭曲,这可能会对连接到电网的其他电气设备产生不利影响。在传统电网中,这是由公用事业公司在变电站补偿的。在配电系统中加入光伏会使情况变得复杂,因为发电过剩导致电网回馈。提出光伏逆变器应通过补偿谐波和无功电流来积极改善电能质量。然而,这增加了逆变器的复杂性和成本,并降低了逆变器的可靠性。为了保证配电系统的电能质量,有必要开发一种对无功和谐波电流进行局部补偿的方法。本文研究了配电静态同步补偿器(D-STATCOM)在配电网谐波功率补偿中的应用。所提出的拓扑结构基于矩阵变换器拓扑结构(MC),该拓扑结构使用模型预测控制(MPC)进行控制,从而实现电感式能量存储,而不需要具有已知失效模式的电解电容器。对配电系统中的谐波电流进行补偿可以提高电网的整体可靠性。利用MATLAB/Simulink对其性能和性能进行了仿真研究。设想该装置可由公用事业公司根据需要在配电网中部署和调度,以防止谐波电流的上游传播,这可能导致变压器过热和其他有害影响。
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引用次数: 11
Flexible and Scalable Photovoltaic Curve Tracer 柔性和可扩展的光伏曲线跟踪器
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523929
Rawdha S. Ameen, R. Balog
Current vs voltages (I-V) curves are needed to understand the electrical characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) materials. Whereas the researcher may be concerned with a temperature-compensated laboratory-grade setup for an individual cell, the practitioner may be interested in validating operation of a large PV plant. PV curve tracers exist on the commercial market for each of these market segments. However, for researchers working with small modules, the cell-level testers may not have adequate voltage and current range, or may not physical accommodate more than a single cell; units designed for large-scale PV plants may not have sufficient resolution or flexibility for low-power modules. Curve tracers for these two markets also tend to be specialized for the particular use-case and relatively expensive. The aim of this paper is to present a curve tracer that is based on off-the-shelf components but is flexible and scalable to accommodate a range of voltage and current levels, number of specimen, and connecting / disconnecting the specimen to other circuitry such as a DC/DC converter. As such, the system can be used for a few cells to large modules and can accommodate an arbitrary number of specimen, which is beneficial to perform comparative testing. It can also be used to validate the maximum power point tracking efficacy of a DC/DC power optimizer by disconnecting the converter, performing the I-V sweep, and then re-connecting to the converter. The system uses a Keithley 2461 Source Meter Unit (SMU) and one or more relay modules, all controlled by MATLAB. The SMU is responsible for generating the voltage sweep and measuring the resulting current. Using commercial equipment alleviates the user from having to custom design and built a curve-tracer. In addition, the SMU can be calibrated to ensure accurate and reliable data. If multiple specimen are to be tested, multiple relay modules can be added to enable multiplexing of many PV specimen to the SMU. Custom software running in MATLAB configures the relays; setups, triggers, and downloads data from the source meter; and saves the data and creates the plots.
了解光伏(PV)材料的电学特性需要电流vs电压(I-V)曲线。研究人员可能关注单个电池的温度补偿实验室级设置,而从业者可能对验证大型光伏电站的运行感兴趣。PV曲线示踪剂存在于这些细分市场的商业市场上。然而,对于使用小型模块的研究人员来说,电池级测试器可能没有足够的电压和电流范围,或者可能无法容纳超过单个电池;为大型光伏电站设计的单元可能没有足够的分辨率或灵活性用于低功率模块。这两个市场的曲线跟踪器也倾向于专门用于特定的用例,并且相对昂贵。本文的目的是提出一种基于现成组件的曲线示踪器,但具有灵活性和可扩展性,以适应一系列电压和电流水平,样品数量,以及将样品连接/断开到其他电路(如DC/DC转换器)。因此,该系统可用于少量细胞到大型模块,并可容纳任意数量的标本,这有利于进行比较测试。它还可以通过断开转换器,执行I-V扫描,然后重新连接到转换器,来验证DC/DC功率优化器的最大功率点跟踪效率。该系统采用Keithley 2461源仪表单元(SMU)和一个或多个继电器模块,全部由MATLAB控制。SMU负责产生电压扫描并测量产生的电流。使用商用设备减轻了用户自定义设计和建立一个曲线跟踪器。此外,可以对SMU进行校准,以确保数据准确可靠。如果要测试多个样品,可以添加多个继电器模块,使多个PV样品多路复用到SMU。在MATLAB中运行的定制软件配置继电器;设置、触发和从源仪表下载数据;然后保存数据,绘制图表。
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引用次数: 4
International Conference on Photovoltaic Science and Technologies 国际光伏科学与技术会议
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/pvcon.2018.8523869
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引用次数: 0
Production and Characterization of Cu2SnS3 Absorber Layers for Photovoltaic Solar Cell Applications 光伏太阳能电池用Cu2SnS3吸收层的制备与表征
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523889
E. Ketenci, F. Atay, O. Büyükgüngör
Next-generation thin film solar cell technologies require the use of abundant photovoltaic absorber materials in nature. Various materials such as CuInGaS (CIGS), CIGSSe CdTe, and Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) have been explored and used for solar cell technology. Nevertheless, the complex crystal structure and the elemental toxicity restrict them for photovoltaic applications. Studies in recent years have begun to reduce costs and complexity in the structure of new ternary semiconductors [1]. Among them, Cu2SnS3 (CTS) is an earth abundant, non-toxic material with direct band gap energies of 0.93-1.77 eV. Suitable electrical and optical properties they exhibit, promise their use as absorbent layer for photovoltaic applications [2]. Unfortunately, the material still needs to improve for high efficiency [3]. Depending on the deposition technique, several secondary phases may appear and affecting the formation reactions during the sulfurization process of the film [4]. Insufficient conversion of binary sulfides during thermal process may lead to the formation of unwanted compounds which affect the crystallization of CTS. In this work, Cu-Sn precursor metals deposited on glass substrates by Physical Vapour Deposition (PVD) technique. In the second stage, the production of CTS films was completed by applying a sulfurization process in a furnace at different sulfurization temperatures. Many physical features have been examined such as optical, structural, surface and electrical properties of the films and were investigated in detailed with the help of xray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, UV-VIS Spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and four-point probe techniques.
下一代薄膜太阳能电池技术需要利用自然界中丰富的光伏吸收材料。各种各样的材料,如CuInGaS (CIGS), CIGSSe CdTe和Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS)已经被探索并用于太阳能电池技术。然而,复杂的晶体结构和元素毒性限制了它们在光伏应用中的应用。近年来的研究已经开始降低新型三元半导体的成本和结构复杂性[1]。其中Cu2SnS3 (CTS)是一种地球富集的无毒物质,直接带隙能为0.93 ~ 1.77 eV。它们表现出合适的电学和光学特性,有望成为光伏应用的吸收层[2]。遗憾的是,为了提高效率,材料还需要改进[3]。根据沉积技术的不同,在膜的硫化过程中可能会出现几种二次相,并影响形成反应[4]。热过程中二元硫化物转化不充分,会形成不良化合物,影响CTS的结晶。本研究采用物理气相沉积(PVD)技术在玻璃衬底上沉积Cu-Sn前驱体金属。在第二阶段,在不同的硫化温度下,在炉内应用一种硫化工艺来完成CTS薄膜的生产。利用x射线衍射、拉曼光谱、紫外-可见光谱、原子力显微镜、扫描电子显微镜和四点探针技术,研究了薄膜的光学、结构、表面和电学等物理特性。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of a Photovoltaic Power Plant for Possible Heat Island Effect 光伏电站对可能热岛效应的影响
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523937
Emre M. Demirezen, T. Ozden, B. Akinoglu
Today, solar energy conversion technologies take a significant place within the efforts of obtaining renewable and sustainable energy around the world, and show a rapid progress. One of the most common technologies is photovoltaic power plants (PVPP) which are built using PV modules that provide electricity directly from sunlight. These plants are qualified as one of the pioneering applications among clean energy production methods. However, as the modules cover large areas and as they are produced by mostly dark-colored solar cells, an environmental debate has already been opened via some recent studies in the literature: Do they alter the solar reflectivity (albedo) of the region's surface where they are installed, and in turn affect the typical microclimate characteristics of that region such as the local air temperatures, humidity, pressure and wind speed? Considering also the additional heat that the modules radiate while producing electricity, the main probable result should be expected as Heat Island Effect (HIE). HIE has been particularly discussed for about last 10 years. Basically, this effect defines the day-night and inter-seasonal variations of local temperatures due to artificial changes on the natural land surface. Accordingly, when an urbanized area is compared with the neighboring rural areas, the difference is specifically named as Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In the present work, we are conducting a field research with in-situ measurements taken by the two weather monitoring stations inside and outside a PVPP in the district Tavsanlı (Kutahya, Turkey). We also provide the meteorological data of Tavsanlı station from Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), which is the nearest weather monitoring station to the PVPP under inspection. These stations have been collecting the data of air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and atmospheric pressure every 10 minutes since October 2017. We used two statistical methods to compare and interpret the first 8-month data of all the three stations. We considered the statistical significance tests for both the first 8 months as a whole and dividing it into two 4 months before and after the PVPP becomes operational. We found that the measurements of the three stations differ significantly for most of the weather parameters. We also carried out pairwise tests and showed that each pair has significant differences for most parameters.
目前,太阳能转换技术在世界范围内获取可再生和可持续能源的努力中占有重要地位,并呈现出快速发展的趋势。最常见的技术之一是光伏发电厂(PVPP),它是使用光伏模块直接从阳光中提供电力而建造的。这些工厂是清洁能源生产方法的先驱应用之一。然而,由于这些组件覆盖面积很大,而且大多是由深色太阳能电池生产的,最近的一些文献研究已经引发了一场关于环境的辩论:它们是否会改变安装它们的地区表面的太阳反射率(反照率),进而影响该地区典型的小气候特征,如当地的气温、湿度、压力和风速?考虑到模块在发电时辐射的额外热量,主要可能的结果应该是热岛效应(HIE)。在过去的10年里,人们对HIE进行了特别的讨论。基本上,这种效应决定了由于人为对自然陆地表面的改变而引起的当地温度的昼夜和季节间变化。因此,当一个城市化地区与邻近的农村地区进行比较时,这种差异被具体地称为城市热岛效应。在目前的工作中,我们正在tavsanlyi(土耳其库塔哈亚)地区的PVPP内外的两个天气监测站进行现场测量。我们还提供了来自土耳其国家气象局(TSMS)的tavsanlir站的气象数据,该气象站是离PVPP最近的气象监测站。自2017年10月以来,这些气象站每10分钟收集一次气温、相对湿度、平均风速和大气压的数据。我们采用两种统计方法对三个站点前8个月的数据进行比较和解释。我们将前8个月的统计显著性检验作为一个整体,并将其分为PVPP开始运行前后的两个4个月。我们发现,三个站点的测量结果在大多数天气参数上存在显著差异。我们还进行了两两检验,结果表明,每一对在大多数参数上都有显著差异。
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引用次数: 3
Two-Dimensional Numerical Analysis of Phosphorus Diffused Emitters on Black Silicon Surfaces 黑硅表面磷扩散发射体的二维数值分析
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523912
Deniz Turkay, S. Yerci
In this work, we present an analysis on electrical performance of phosphorus diffused emitters on black silicon surfaces through two-dimensional simulations. In particular, we focus on the extraction and analysis of the emitter saturation current density $(boldsymbol{J}_{0mathbf{e}})$, the sheet resistance $(boldsymbol{R}_{mathbf{sh}})$, spatial collection efficiency profile and relatedly $boldsymbol{J}_{mathbf{sc}}$ of a solar cell. Using process simulations, we form emitters on periodic triangular structures with various aspect ratios $(boldsymbol{R})$ and emitter profiles. We show that for high aspect ratio and highly-doped structures, the trend of increasing $boldsymbol{J}_{0mathbf{e}}$ with junction depth, observed for planar structures, is reversed. While $boldsymbol{R}_{mathbf{sh}}$ increase with aspect ratio for shallow emitters, it is weakly dependent on aspect ratio for deep emitters, irrespective of the peak dopant concentration. For highly-doped emitters, the losses in $boldsymbol{J}_{mathbf{sc}}$ can be excessive if the junction depth is larger than the texture size. These losses are negligible for lightly-doped emitters regardless of aspect ratio and junction depth. The trends presented in this study for high aspect ratio emitters in comparison with one-dimensional emitters are expected to provide guidance in the identification of non-idealities that are observed in emitters formed on black silicon surfaces, such as additional surface and bulk defects.
在这项工作中,我们通过二维模拟分析了黑硅表面磷扩散发射器的电性能。重点分析了太阳能电池的发射极饱和电流密度$(boldsymbol{J}_{0mathbf{e}})$、片层电阻$(boldsymbol{R}_{mathbf{sh}})$、空间收集效率曲线以及相应的$boldsymbol{J}_{mathbf{sc}}$。通过过程模拟,我们在具有不同纵横比$(boldsymbol{R})$和发射器轮廓的周期性三角形结构上形成了发射器。我们发现,对于高纵横比和高掺杂结构,在平面结构中观察到的$boldsymbol{J}_{0mathbf{e}}$随结深度增加的趋势是相反的。对于浅发射体,$boldsymbol{R}_{mathbf{sh}}$随着长宽比的增加而增加,而对于深发射体,它与长宽比的依赖性较弱,与峰值掺杂浓度无关。对于高掺杂的发射体,如果结深度大于织体尺寸,$boldsymbol{J}_{mathbf{sc}}$中的损耗会过大。无论宽高比和结深如何,这些损耗对于轻掺杂的发射体来说是可以忽略不计的。本研究中提出的高长宽比发射体与一维发射体的趋势,有望为识别在黑硅表面形成的发射体中观察到的非理想性提供指导,例如额外的表面和体积缺陷。
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引用次数: 0
Daily and Monthly Module Temperature Variation for 9 Different Modules 9个不同模块的日和月模块温度变化
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523878
Talat Özden, Doga Tolgay, B. Akinoglu
One of the main parameter affecting the efficiency of PV modules is the module temperature. In this respect, outdoor testing of modules is very important to determine the temperature dependent performances and degradation rates. In this work, we analyzed the module temperatures of 9 different modules tested in the outdoor testing facility of METU-GUNAM, Ankara (latitude ∼40°N, in Central Anatolia and the climate is dry continental). The tested module types are two CIS (identical), one $mu mathrm{c}-text{Si}$/a-Si, one Poly-Si, three Mono-Si (two identical), one HIT and one bifacial. The module temperatures can reach up to 76°C while the ambient is around 39 °C during summer days. Monthly average module temperatures can reach up to 33.7°C (CIS) while the monthly average ambient is at 26.0°C and drops down to 1 °C while average ambient temperature is about the same as average module temperature. The results showed that the monthly averages of module temperatures differences are maximum during summer (∼3.5°C) and minimum during winter (1.1°C). It is interesting that the two CIS modules have the highest monthly average module temperature and although they are supposed to be identical their temperatures differ significantly. Bifacial and HIT module temperatures are lower than the Mono-Si modules. One of the two identical Mono-Si modules was not cleaned and its module temperature is always lower than the one that was cleaned periodically, as expected. In this work, we also present the results and discussions on the spatial variations of measured module temperatures of PV panels.
影响光伏组件效率的主要参数之一是组件温度。在这方面,室外测试模块是非常重要的,以确定温度相关的性能和降解率。在这项工作中,我们分析了在安卡拉METU-GUNAM室外测试设施中测试的9个不同模块的模块温度(纬度~ 40°N,位于安纳托利亚中部,气候为干燥大陆性)。测试的模块类型是两个CIS(相同),一个$mu maththrm {c}-text{Si}$/a-Si,一个Poly-Si,三个Mono-Si(两个相同),一个HIT和一个双面。模块温度可达76°C,而夏季环境温度约为39°C。模块月平均温度最高可达33.7℃(CIS),环境月平均温度为26.0℃,环境月平均温度降至1℃,环境月平均温度与模块月平均温度基本一致。结果表明,模块月均温差在夏季最大(~ 3.5°C),在冬季最小(1.1°C)。有趣的是,两个CIS模块具有最高的月平均模块温度,尽管它们应该是相同的,但它们的温度差异很大。Bifacial和HIT模块温度低于Mono-Si模块。两个相同的单晶硅模块中的一个没有清洗,其模块温度总是低于定期清洗的模块,正如预期的那样。在这项工作中,我们还介绍了光伏电池板测量模块温度的空间变化的结果和讨论。
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引用次数: 4
Short Term Solar Power Generation Forecasting: A Novel Approach 短期太阳能发电预测:一种新方法
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.1109/PVCON.2018.8523919
Fatih Serttaş, F. Hocaoglu, E. Akarslan
Photovoltaics' (PV's) are widely preferred in electricity generation market in recent years. However many parameters effect solar power generation such as irradiance, temperature, humidity etc. Therefore, solar power generation forecasting is quite significant to plan and manage energy distribution. In this study, a novel methodology called Mycielski-Markov is utilized to forecast solar power generation for short term period. This novel hybrid method is developed based on two different techniques; Mycielski signal processing technique and probabilistic Markov chain. Mycielski investigates the data history and finds the recurrence of the solar radiation data. It predicts the next data due to the recurrence in a deterministic way. On the other hand, Markov produces the transition probabilities of the solar energy states and forecast new state according to these probabilities. It is obtained that, the methods in proposed hybrid hierarchy; provide a good forecasting accuracy with a 0.87 correlation of determination value.
近年来,光伏发电在发电市场上得到了广泛的青睐。然而,许多参数影响太阳能发电,如辐照度,温度,湿度等。因此,太阳能发电预测对能源分配的规划和管理具有十分重要的意义。在本研究中,采用了一种新颖的方法Mycielski-Markov对太阳能发电进行短期预测。这种新型的混合方法是基于两种不同的技术开发的;Mycielski信号处理技术与概率马尔可夫链。Mycielski研究了数据历史,发现太阳辐射数据的重现。它以确定性的方式预测下一个数据的递归。另一方面,马尔可夫产生太阳能状态的过渡概率,并根据这些概率预测新的状态。结果表明:所提出的混合层次方法;测定值的相关系数为0.87,预测精度较高。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
2018 International Conference on Photovoltaic Science and Technologies (PVCon)
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