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Medicare Reform: Estimation of the Impacts of Premium Support Systems 医疗保险改革:保费支持系统影响的估计
A. Federgruen, Lijian Lu
Medicare reform plans advocate reducing the capitation levels or determining these endogenously as a function of the premium bids, for example, the lowest, the second-lowest or a weighted average of the bids. Based on a price competition model tailored toward this market, and actual 2010 county-by county data, we estimate the impact such reforms would have on the plans’s market shares, equilibrium premia, the government’s and the beneficiaries’ costs. We employ two methodologies to derive the model parameters. The predicted impacts are remarkably consistent and reveal, for example, that government costs could be reduced by 16.5%-21%.
医疗保险改革计划主张降低人均水平,或根据保费出价(例如,最低、次低或出价的加权平均值)内生地确定这些水平。基于为该市场量身定制的价格竞争模型,以及2010年各县的实际数据,我们估计了此类改革将对计划的市场份额、均衡保费、政府和受益人的成本产生的影响。我们采用两种方法来推导模型参数。预测的影响非常一致,例如,政府成本可以降低16.5%-21%。
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引用次数: 0
Disciplinary Differences in Opening Research Data 开放研究数据的学科差异
Danny Lämmerhirt
The management and widespread sharing of publicly funded research data has gained significant momentum among governments, funders, institutions, journals and data service providers around the world. However, there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to open research data across academic disciplines.

Different disciplines produce different types of data and have various procedures for analysing, archiving and publishing it. This briefing paper presents the current state of open research data across academic disciplines. It describes disciplinary characteristics inhibiting a larger take-up of open research data mandates. Additionally it presents the current strategies and policies established by funders, institutions, journals and data service providers alongside general data policies.
公共资助研究数据的管理和广泛共享在世界各地的政府、资助者、机构、期刊和数据服务提供商之间取得了显著的势头。然而,没有一种“放之四海而皆准”的方法来开放跨学科的研究数据。不同的学科产生不同类型的数据,并有不同的分析、存档和发布程序。本简报介绍了各学科开放研究数据的现状。它描述了学科特征,限制了开放研究数据授权的更大范围的接受。此外,它还介绍了资助者、机构、期刊和数据服务提供商制定的当前战略和政策以及一般数据政策。
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引用次数: 4
How to Measure the Economic Impact of Vector‐Borne Diseases at Country Level 如何在国家层面衡量病媒传播疾病的经济影响
Marcello Basili, F. Belloc
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are widespread in less developed countries and reemerging in developed ones. Available economic studies agree that VBDs have significant effects on countries' economic outcomes, and affirm that a systematic evaluation of such effects is crucial for the efficient allocation of resources to health-related priorities. This paper provides a comparative assessment of available methodologies for measuring the economic impact of VBDs at national level. We review both macroeconometric and micro-based approaches, and examine advantages and disadvantages of current methods. We conclude by suggesting possible areas for future research.
病媒传播疾病在欠发达国家普遍存在,在发达国家再次出现。现有的经济研究一致认为,生物杀虫剂对国家的经济成果有重大影响,并确认对这种影响进行系统评价对于有效地将资源分配给与卫生有关的优先事项至关重要。本文对在国家一级衡量生物杀虫剂的经济影响的现有方法进行了比较评估。我们回顾了宏观计量经济学和基于微观的方法,并检查了当前方法的优点和缺点。最后,我们提出了未来可能研究的领域。
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引用次数: 5
A Primer on Global Games Applied to Macroeconomics and Finance 应用于宏观经济和金融的全球博弈入门
J. Jorge, J. Rocha
This paper shows how to solve global games applied to macroeconomics and finance. We ascertain the roles of public and private information for the determination of a unique equilibrium, and discuss the informative role of market prices. We examine the impact of public information on social welfare, comparing models with and without complementarities at the aggregate level.
本文展示了如何解决全球博弈应用于宏观经济和金融。我们确定了公共信息和私人信息在确定唯一均衡中的作用,并讨论了市场价格的信息作用。我们考察了公共信息对社会福利的影响,在总体水平上比较了有互补性和没有互补性的模型。
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引用次数: 9
Impact on Firms of the Use of Knowledge External Sources: A Systematic Review of the Literature 外部知识资源使用对企业的影响:文献系统回顾
Carlos Vivas, A. Barge-Gil
This study summarizes the main conclusions from a systematic review of the empirical literature regarding the impact on firms of the use of knowledge external sources (universities, research institutes and knowledge intensive business services). With the aim to organize the literature, we classify the different works according to the research question addressed: (i) which firms use knowledge external sources?; (ii) Do firms using knowledge external sources achieve better results?; And (iii) which firms benefit the most from using knowledge external sources? Stylized facts are that larger, more R&D intensive and high tech firms are more likely to use knowledge external sources and that use of knowledge external sources is associated to firms higher technical results. Less attention has been paid to the third question and evidence is not conclusive. Several recommendations for future research emerge. First, to take in greater consideration methodological issues so that potential biases in the results caused by sample selection and endogeneity are handled properly. Second, to pay more attention to heterogeneous outcomes. Third, to use continuous indicators of depth and breadth of links allowing for non-linear relationships and fourth, to extend evidence for developing countries and service industries.
本研究总结了关于外部知识来源(大学、研究机构和知识密集型商业服务)对企业影响的实证文献的主要结论。为了整理文献,我们根据研究问题对不同的作品进行分类:(i)哪些公司使用外部知识来源?使用外部知识来源的公司是否能取得更好的结果?(三)哪些企业从使用外部知识资源中获益最多?研究表明,规模更大、研发强度更高、技术含量更高的企业更有可能使用外部知识资源,并且外部知识资源的使用与企业更高的技术成果相关。对第三个问题的关注较少,证据也不确凿。对未来的研究提出了一些建议。首先,要更多地考虑方法问题,以便妥善处理由样本选择和内生性引起的结果中的潜在偏差。第二,更加关注异质性结果。第三,使用连续的联系深度和广度指标,允许非线性关系;第四,扩大发展中国家和服务业的证据。
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引用次数: 46
Relationship Data: The Missing Link of the Current Financial Infrastructure 关系数据:当前金融基础设施缺失的一环
I. Leonova, N. Jenkinson
Improving understanding of the complex relationships among financial entities is critically important for risk managers and for financial authorities charged with multiple policy objectives. High quality information is lacking at both the intra- and inter-enterprise levels and to support analysis of the financial network. Put simply, the current quality and quantity of relationship data is not sufficient to deliver on the ultimate objectives. For the purpose of this discussion we use a very generic definition of a term relationship somewhat similar to the definition used to describe human relationships. And like in the human relationships case we will not claim that only marriage and blood connection makes your relatives, but also loaning a book, loving, hating and sharing a flat. In the financial context, the relationships may be determined by accounting rules set, for example, by IFRS or US GAAP, as well as regulatory requirements in areas of risk management, market integrity, know-your-client, network analysis and statistical consolidation. The financial industry and regulators have spent countless hours arguing and debating the definition of ownership. The problem lies in the question itself. We suggest that as part of any relationship data system the best approach is to put the question aside and avoid a conceptual and practical quagmire. Rather, we recommend collecting and storing less-subjective granular data on theactual legal and economic relationships between firms, which provides a flexibleframework from which any user can answer the question on corporate relationships he or she determines is appropriate at a given time. Encouragingly, technological solutions are available to accommodate this multiplicity of requirements in a single solution. The paper outlines where the practical challenges are that inhibit the development of high quality relationship data and how they can be overcome.
提高对金融实体之间复杂关系的理解对于风险管理者和负责多种政策目标的金融当局至关重要。企业内部和企业间都缺乏高质量的信息来支持对财务网络的分析。简而言之,当前关系数据的质量和数量不足以实现最终目标。为了讨论的目的,我们使用一个非常通用的术语关系的定义,有点类似于用来描述人类关系的定义。就像在人际关系的例子中,我们不会说只有婚姻和血缘关系才是你的亲戚,也会说借一本书、爱、恨和合租一套公寓才是你的亲戚。在财务环境中,这种关系可能取决于会计规则,例如,国际财务报告准则或美国公认会计准则,以及风险管理、市场完整性、了解客户、网络分析和统计合并等领域的监管要求。金融业和监管机构花了无数时间争论所有权的定义。问题在于问题本身。我们建议,作为任何关系数据系统的一部分,最好的方法是把这个问题放在一边,避免陷入概念和实践的泥潭。相反,我们建议收集和存储关于公司之间实际法律和经济关系的不那么主观的细粒度数据,这提供了一个灵活的框架,任何用户都可以从中回答他或她认为在给定时间合适的公司关系问题。令人鼓舞的是,技术解决方案可以在单个解决方案中容纳这种需求的多样性。本文概述了阻碍高质量关系数据发展的实际挑战,以及如何克服这些挑战。
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引用次数: 1
Regularized Regression Incorporating Network Information: Simultaneous Estimation of Covariate Coefficients and Connection Signs 包含网络信息的正则化回归:协变量系数和连接符号的同时估计
Matthias Weber, M. Schumacher, H. Binder
We develop an algorithm that incorporates network information into regression settings. It simultaneously estimates the covariate coefficients and the signs of the network connections (i.e. whether the connections are of an activating or of a repressing type). For the coefficient estimation steps an additional penalty is set on top of the lasso penalty, similarly to Li and Li (2008). We develop a fast implementation for the new method based on coordinate descent. Furthermore, we show how the new methods can be applied to time-to-event data. The new method yields good results in simulation studies concerning sensitivity and specificity of non-zero covariate coefficients, estimation of network connection signs, and prediction performance. We also apply the new method to two microarray time-to-event data sets from patients with ovarian cancer and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The new method performs very well in both cases. The main application of this new method is of biomedical nature, but it may also be useful in other fields where network data is available.
我们开发了一种将网络信息纳入回归设置的算法。它同时估计协变量系数和网络连接的符号(即连接是激活型还是抑制型)。对于系数估计步骤,在套索惩罚之上设置一个额外的惩罚,类似于Li和Li(2008)。我们开发了一种基于坐标下降的快速实现方法。此外,我们还展示了如何将新方法应用于时间到事件的数据。新方法在非零协变量系数的敏感性和特异性、网络连接符号的估计和预测性能等方面的仿真研究中取得了良好的结果。我们还将新方法应用于卵巢癌和弥漫性大b细胞淋巴瘤患者的两个微阵列事件时间数据集。新方法在这两种情况下都表现得很好。这种新方法的主要应用是生物医学性质,但它也可能在其他领域的网络数据是有用的。
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引用次数: 6
Assembling International Equity Datasets -- Review of Studies on the Cross-Section of Common Stocks 汇编国际股权数据集——普通股横截面研究综述
A. Waszczuk
This paper reviews the data sources used in the research on the cross-section of international stock returns. Covering the wide range of internationally focused papers I give an overview of the applied data, sample coverage, classification schemes and data cleaning methods. I address the quality concerns in case of the non-U.S. data and methodologically relevant specifics of international data analysis providing references to available solutions. In regards to data cleaning I give an overview of applied screens, pointing out their diversity across studies. On that way I offer a structured insight into challenges and specifics of rapidly increasing amount of papers discussing the cross-section of common stocks in both single-country and multiple country frameworks.
本文回顾了国际股票收益横截面研究中使用的数据来源。涵盖广泛的国际重点论文,我给出了应用数据,样本覆盖,分类方案和数据清理方法的概述。我解决了非美国产品的质量问题。国际数据分析的数据和方法相关细节,提供可用解决方案的参考。关于数据清理,我给出了应用屏幕的概述,指出它们在不同研究中的多样性。通过这种方式,我提供了一个结构化的洞察力,以了解在单一国家和多个国家框架中讨论普通股横截面的论文数量迅速增加的挑战和细节。
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引用次数: 8
A Novel Identification Approach to Bayesian Factor Analysis with Sparse Loadings Matrices 基于稀疏负载矩阵的贝叶斯因子分析识别新方法
M. Pape
Sparse factor analysis comprises aspects of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, seeking to establish a parsimonious structure in the loadings matrix of the model. This task is related to the issue of determining the number of factors required for model representation, the question of which variables are useful and which ones can be excluded from the analysis, and the problem whether some variables are driven by a subset of all factors only. Whereas sparsity analysis focuses mainly on the third of these questions, it can provide helpful hints to tackle the first two questions as well. I use multivariate highest posterior density (HPD) intervals calculated for the posterior densities derived from the weighted orthogonal Procrustes (WOP) ex-post identification approach to find a sparse loadings structure. In a simulation study, this method is used to identify different sparse structures, including those with excess variables, and to determine the number of factors in the model, where all three tasks are well achieved. Eventually, I apply the approach on a data set of intelligence test results to determine the number of factors, the required variables and the sparsity structure, where it yields results not only well-comprehensible, but also very similar to those found in former studies analyzing the data set.
稀疏因子分析包括探索性因子分析和验证性因子分析两个方面,力求在模型的负荷矩阵中建立一个简约的结构。这项任务涉及到确定模型表示所需的因素数量的问题,哪些变量是有用的,哪些变量可以从分析中排除的问题,以及某些变量是否仅由所有因素的子集驱动的问题。尽管稀疏性分析主要关注第三个问题,但它也可以为解决前两个问题提供有用的提示。我使用多元最高后验密度(HPD)区间来计算由加权正交Procrustes (WOP)事后识别方法得出的后验密度,以找到稀疏负载结构。在仿真研究中,该方法用于识别不同的稀疏结构,包括具有多余变量的稀疏结构,并确定模型中因子的数量,这三项任务都很好地实现了。最后,我将该方法应用于智力测试结果的数据集,以确定因素的数量,所需的变量和稀疏性结构,其结果不仅易于理解,而且与以前分析数据集的研究结果非常相似。
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引用次数: 0
Risikofaktoren und Multifaktormodelle für den Deutschen Aktienmarkt (Risk Factors and Multi-Factor Models for the German Stock Market) 德国股票市场的风险因素和多因素模型
M. Hanauer, C. Kaserer, M. Rapp
Der deutsche Aktienmarkt sah sich in den letzten 15 Jahren substantiellen Veranderungen gegenuber, welche unter anderem in eine zunehmende Internationalisierung und deutlich erhohten Streubesitz mundeten. In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir, inwieweit dies die aus klassischen Multifaktormodellen bekannten Risikofaktoren beeinflusste. Basierend auf den Renditen derCDAX-Unternehmen von Juli 1996 bis Juni 2011 dokumentieren wir vier wesentliche Ergebnisse. Erstens finden wir eine insignifikant (positive) Marktrisikopramie, eine signifikant negative Grosenpramie (Size Premium), eine signifikant positive Substanzpramie (Value Premium) und eine signifikant positive Momentumpramie (Momentum Premium). Zweitens zeigen sich alle vier Faktoren untereinander nur schwach bzw. negativ korreliert und teilweise mit internationalen Gegenstucken nur schwach korreliert. Drittens zeigt sich, dass Renditen von Aktienportfolios, sortiert nach Marktkapitalisierung und Buch-Marktwert-Verhaltnis, durch ein Dreifaktorenmodell nach Fama French (1993) substantiell besser erklart werden, als durch ein Einfaktormodell in Anlehnung an das klassische Capital Asset Pricing Model. Der zusatzliche Erklarungsbeitrag des Momentumfaktors in Anlehnung an Carhart (1997) ist hingegen marginal. Letztendlich argumentieren wir daher vor dem Hintergrund der bekannten Literatur und unserer Ergebnisse fur eine landerspezifische Erweiterung des Capital Asset Pricing Models.
过去15年来,德国股市经历了巨大的变化,这部分表明国际股票不断国际化和来势不明的分散资产。在此项研究中,我们要探讨这些因素对传统多因素模型已知的风险因素的影响。基于cdax公司1996年7月至2011年6月的回报,我们记录了四个关键结果。首先,你会发现一个浮现(正的)市场风险乐谱,一个显著负奖励,一个明显的正奖励,一个明显正奖励。其次,这四大因素之间相互关联薄弱或消极,其中一些与国际冲突相关。第三,由市场资本和书籍价值调整的股票组合收益在结构上比由经典资本评级模型演变的简单模型表现得要好。然而,诗人加尔本(1997年)所作的补充阐释则微不足道。最后,基于所有著名文学和我们的成果,我们一致认为资本投资投资名模具体扩展。
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引用次数: 29
期刊
ERN: Other Econometrics: Data Collection & Data Estimation Methodology (Topic)
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