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Climate Change, Credit Risk and Financial Stability 气候变化、信贷风险和金融稳定
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.93304
Oluwaseun James Oguntuase
Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges, posing an unprecedented challenge to the governance of global socioeconomic and financial systems. This chapter examines the climate change science and uncertainties associated with climate change, while identifying and explaining climate-related risks, the financial aspect of climate change, credit implications of climate change, integration of climate-related risks into credit risk assessment, and climate risk management. The chapter pays special attention to the triangular relationship between the three notions of climate-related risks, credit risk, and financial stability by enumerating the channels through which climate risks can cause credit risks and affect the stability of the financial system. Approaches to incorporate climate change into corporate risk management are also discussed.
气候变化是最大的全球性挑战之一,对全球社会经济和金融体系治理提出了前所未有的挑战。本章研究气候变化科学和与气候变化相关的不确定性,同时识别和解释气候相关风险、气候变化的金融方面、气候变化的信贷影响、将气候相关风险纳入信贷风险评估以及气候风险管理。本章特别关注气候相关风险、信用风险和金融稳定这三个概念之间的三角关系,列举了气候风险可能导致信用风险并影响金融体系稳定的渠道。本文还讨论了将气候变化纳入企业风险管理的方法。
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引用次数: 4
Has the Yield Curve Accurately Predicted the Malaysian Economy in the Previous Two Decades? 收益率曲线是否准确预测了马来西亚过去20年的经济状况?
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92214
Maya Puspa Rahman
Previous researchers have argued that yield curve contains information for future growth, and to a certain extent, was accurate in predicting recessions through the signal of yield curve inversion. This paper provides new evidence on the long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and yield spread in Malaysia, based on a 20-year span of data ranging from January 1996 to December 2016. By using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, the sample data are divided into three samples after taking into consideration the two major crises occurred in Malaysia over the last two decades. We find strong evidence of cointegration between the yield spread and growth, concurring on the long-run and short-run dynamics between them. Though significant, the instability of the yield spread to affect the movement of growth does not support the priori expectation on the predictive ability of the yield curve in Malaysia.
前人的研究认为,收益率曲线包含了未来增长的信息,在一定程度上通过收益率曲线反转的信号预测经济衰退是准确的。本文基于1996年1月至2016年12月的20年数据,为马来西亚经济增长与收益率差之间的长期和短期关系提供了新的证据。通过使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)框架,样本数据被分为三个样本后,考虑到两个主要的危机发生在马来西亚在过去的二十年。我们发现了收益率差和增长之间协整的有力证据,它们之间的长期和短期动态是一致的。收益率价差的不稳定性虽然显著,但并不支持对马来西亚收益率曲线预测能力的先验预期。
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引用次数: 0
New Malaysia, Brexit and US-China Trade War: Credit Risk to Malaysian Banks 新马来西亚、英国脱欧和中美贸易战:马来西亚银行的信用风险
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92080
Wooi Keong Yong, Wooi Meng Yong
A country’s economic prosperity is intimately linked to the external and internal forces that exert influences on its economy. While some of these forces may not be under the overt control of the country’s economic planners, any disruption to the economy by these forces may just tip the balance that causes financial hardship to millions of people. Certainly, national governments through fiscal and monetary policy measures may attempt to prevent such a catastrophe, but what happens if at such a critical time, the needed government leadership is suddenly not available? In such a situation, what will be the most appropriate reaction from the central bank and what is the likely effect to the country’s banking industry? While this scenario might sound like an interesting thought experiment in a banking classroom, a similar situation is in fact unfolding in real life at this very moment in Malaysia.
一个国家的经济繁荣与影响其经济的外部和内部力量密切相关。虽然这些力量中的一些可能不在国家经济计划者的公开控制之下,但这些力量对经济的任何破坏都可能会打破平衡,给数百万人带来经济困难。当然,各国政府可能会试图通过财政和货币政策措施来防止这种灾难,但如果在如此关键的时刻,所需的政府领导突然无法发挥作用,该怎么办?在这种情况下,央行最合适的反应是什么?对该国银行业可能产生什么影响?虽然这个场景听起来像是银行业课堂上的一个有趣的思想实验,但实际上,类似的情况正在马来西亚的现实生活中展开。
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引用次数: 0
Bank Service Delivery in Nigeria 尼日利亚的银行服务交付
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92075
Akinbode James Olalekan
Nigeria as a country has recorded significant efficiency in bank service delivery considering her history of banking services. This assertion reflects in the views of banking sector stakeholders in the country and foreign assessors. One milestone was the introduction and effective use of electronic banking system in the last two decades which eliminated hurdles overt with the conventional banking era. Today, banking activities in Nigeria are possible at any time of the day and anywhere without any stress. This is not to say that it has fully complied with global best practices as there are still pockets of complaints from stakeholders especially customers which have expressed dissatisfaction in the quality of banking services rendered to them. In spite of the level of customers’ dissatisfaction, bank service delivery is better than what it was, and the Nigerian banking sector is presently at the front burner in terms of banking service delivery in Africa. Although challenges of employees’ knowledge gaps, technology, inadequate legal framework, incompetent manpower and staff improper attitude remain contentious in the Nigerian banking system, efforts from stakeholders especially the regulator to eliminate these challenges would bring about improved banking service delivery in Nigeria and make it close to global best practices, if not achieve it.
考虑到尼日利亚的银行服务历史,该国在银行服务提供方面的效率显著。这一断言反映了该国银行业利益相关者和外国评估人员的观点。一个里程碑是,在过去的二十年里,电子银行系统的引入和有效使用消除了传统银行时代的障碍。今天,尼日利亚的银行业务可以在一天中的任何时间、任何地点进行,没有任何压力。这并不是说它已经完全遵守了全球最佳实践,因为仍然有一些利益相关者的投诉,特别是客户,他们对提供给他们的银行服务质量表示不满。尽管客户的不满程度很高,但银行提供的服务比以前好了,尼日利亚银行业目前在非洲银行服务提供方面处于领先地位。虽然员工的知识差距,技术,不充分的法律框架,无能的人力和员工不当的态度的挑战仍然有争议的尼日利亚银行系统,努力从利益相关者,特别是监管机构消除这些挑战将带来改善银行服务交付在尼日利亚,使其接近全球最佳实践,如果不能实现它。
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引用次数: 0
Internal Controls and Credit Risk in European Banking: The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Framework Approach 欧洲银行业内部控制与信用风险:巴塞尔委员会银行监管框架方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92889
Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi
Poor corporate governance practices have been cited as contributory to the 2007 global financial crisis. The chapter explores a qualitative self-regulation approach to address a major risk facing banks using the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) framework of internal controls. The study examines the effect of the qualitative principles of the BCBS internal control framework on credit risk. Corporate institutions use internal control frameworks to address the most operational risks, but the current study hypothesizes a possible relation with the credit risk. This research covers banks from selected EU countries covering some period before and after the 2007 financial crisis using a fixed-effect model. We report a significant relationship between board functions and activities, board structure and board monitoring, and credit risk. The results indicate that investment in high-risk assets, bank profitability and board chair being ex-CEO increases credit risk in European banking. The chapter extends the scope of a previous work that used the elements of the COSO internal control framework on a single country. This quantitative measure of qualitative constructs of the framework complements existing research that uses algorithms and simulations to study credit risk.
糟糕的公司治理实践被认为是导致2007年全球金融危机的原因之一。本章探讨了一种定性的自我监管方法,以解决使用巴塞尔银行监管委员会(BCBS)内部控制框架的银行面临的主要风险。本研究考察了BCBS内部控制框架的定性原则对信用风险的影响。公司机构使用内部控制框架来解决大多数操作风险,但目前的研究假设了与信用风险的可能关系。本研究采用固定效应模型对2007年金融危机前后一段时间内选定的欧盟国家的银行进行了研究。我们报告了董事会职能和活动、董事会结构和董事会监督与信用风险之间的显著关系。结果表明,投资高风险资产、银行盈利能力和董事长为前首席执行官增加了欧洲银行业的信用风险。本章扩展了以前的一项工作的范围,该工作将COSO内部控制框架的要素用于单个国家。这种对框架的定性构建的定量测量补充了现有的使用算法和模拟来研究信用风险的研究。
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引用次数: 2
The Relationship between Economic Uncertainty and Firms’ Balance Sheet Strength 经济不确定性与企业资产负债表强度的关系
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-07 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.91860
M. Çolak, I. Guney, Y. Hacıhasanoğlu
This chapter aims to elaborate on the relationship between economic uncertainty and balance sheet strength of nonfinancial firms in Turkish economy. In order to effectively measure the balance sheet strength, we make use of a multivariate indicator, namely, the Multivariate Firm Assessment Score (MFA Score), which is a composite index to gauge the credit risk of nonfinancial firms quoted in Borsa İstanbul. MFA scores are compared with some uncertainty indicators for the period of 2005–2019. Our results suggest that when the uncertainties in global or Turkish economy are high, we observe a significant causal relationship from uncertainty indicators to firms’ balance sheet strength. More specifically, economic uncertainties negatively affect firms’ balance sheet performance in such an environment. Moreover, different types of uncertainties such as trade policy uncertainty and consumer perceptions about the economy are found to have differential impacts on exporter and non-exporter firms.
本章旨在阐述土耳其经济中经济不确定性与非金融企业资产负债表强度之间的关系。为了有效地衡量资产负债表的强度,我们使用了一个多变量指标,即多变量企业评估得分(MFA得分),这是一个衡量Borsa İstanbul上市非金融企业信用风险的综合指数。MFA得分与2005-2019年期间的一些不确定性指标进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明,当全球或土耳其经济的不确定性较高时,我们观察到不确定性指标与企业资产负债表强度之间存在显著的因果关系。更具体地说,在这种环境下,经济不确定性会对企业的资产负债表表现产生负面影响。此外,发现不同类型的不确定性,如贸易政策的不确定性和消费者对经济的看法,对出口商和非出口商公司有不同的影响。
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引用次数: 1
A New Approach for Assessing Credit Risks under Uncertainty 不确定性下的信用风险评估新方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.5772/INTECHOPEN.93285
T. Tsabadze
The purpose of this chapter is to introduce a new approach for an assessment of the credit risks. The initial part of the chapter is to briefly discuss the existing models of assessment of the credit risks and justify the need for a new approach. Since a new approach is created for conditions of uncertainty, we cannot do without fuzzy mathematics. The proposed approach is based on group decision-making, where experts’ opinions are expressed by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The theoretical basis of the offered approach is laid out in the metric space of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The new approach is introduced and discussed, and two realization algorithms are given. The toy example of application of the introduced approach is offered as well.
本章的目的是介绍一种评估信用风险的新方法。本章的第一部分是简要讨论现有的信用风险评估模型,并证明需要一种新的方法。由于一种新的方法是为不确定的条件创建的,我们不能没有模糊数学。该方法基于群体决策,用梯形模糊数表达专家意见。在梯形模糊数度量空间中给出了该方法的理论基础。对该方法进行了介绍和讨论,给出了两种实现算法。并给出了应用所引入方法的简单示例。
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引用次数: 0
Stock Markets of the Visegrad Countries after Their Accession to the European Union 维谢格拉德国家加入欧盟后的股票市场
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92102
W. Grabowski
In this chapter, interlinkages between stock markets in CEE-4 countries and capital markets in developed countries are analyzed. Changes of variance on stock markets in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary are identified. Differences among countries are analyzed. Capital markets of these countries are compared in terms of market efficiency. Moreover, co-movements of stock markets in Visegrad countries with capital markets in developed countries are studied. Different specifications of multivariate GARCH models are studied. Asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model and Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation model are considered.
本章分析了中东欧四国股票市场与发达国家资本市场的相互联系。确定了波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克和匈牙利股票市场的方差变化。分析了各国之间的差异。从市场效率的角度对这些国家的资本市场进行比较。此外,本文还研究了维谢格拉德国家股票市场与发达国家资本市场的协同运动。研究了不同规格的多元GARCH模型。考虑了非对称GARCH-BEKK模型和非对称广义动态条件相关模型。
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引用次数: 0
Sales and Conformity of Goods: A Legal Discourse 商品的销售与合规性:一个法律话语
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.93035
D. Roland
This chapter is primarily concerned with the fact that the concept of conformity is dynamic and amorphous as it is recognised as an impetus to economic development and plays a major role in matters of sale of goods within an economy. In making an assessment of the seller’s duty of conformity to a contract of sale of goods as governed by the OHADA Uniform Act on General Commercial Law, this study argues that the concept of conformity is limited rather than broad that should appropriately encapsulate the physical and non-physical things that could form the object of a contract of sale. It therefore explores other aspects that could be considered as part of the ‘goods’ for the purposes of the conformance duty in establishing the limits of the seller’s liability. Thus, adopting an empirical and in-depth analysis of primary and secondary data, this study therefore holds that the question of conformity of goods can conveniently be addressed from a number of different angles: contract law, consumer patterns, local and international standards, and the principles of caveat venditor and caveat emptor.
本章主要关注的事实是,一致性的概念是动态的和无定形的,因为它被认为是经济发展的动力,在经济中的商品销售中起着重要作用。在评估《OHADA通用商法统一法案》(OHADA Uniform Act on General Commercial Law)管辖下卖方对货物销售合同的符合性义务时,本研究认为符合性的概念是有限的,而不是广泛的,它应该适当地概括可能构成销售合同标的的实物和非实物。因此,本文探讨了在确定卖方责任限制时,为符合义务的目的而可被视为“货物”一部分的其他方面。因此,通过对一手数据和二手数据的实证和深入分析,本研究认为,商品的符合性问题可以从许多不同的角度来解决:合同法、消费者模式、本地和国际标准,以及卖方自负和买者自负的原则。
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引用次数: 0
Organizational Culture and Knowledge Sharing in Banking Management 银行管理中的组织文化与知识共享
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.92728
Naima Andleeb, Fauzi Ahmad, Shahab Aziz
The objective of the chapter is to explore the importance of knowledge sharing in the banking management along with organizational culture. To meet the objective of the study, a framework is proposed with knowledge sharing (KS) that is expected to be influenced by organizational culture (OS). OS itself is contributed by uncertainty avoidance, performance orientation, and gender egalitarianism.
本章的目的是探讨知识共享与组织文化在银行管理中的重要性。为了达到研究的目的,提出了一个知识共享(KS)框架,该框架预计会受到组织文化(OS)的影响。OS本身是由不确定性规避、性能导向和性别平等主义贡献的。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Banking and Finance Review
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