Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v24y2020i2p134-166
Y. Konishi, Y. Nishiyama
We propose a method to measure the efficiency of the retail industry. In the case of the manufacturing industry, we can define its efficiency by total factor productivity (TFP) based on the production function. Since retailers do not produce specific objects, we cannot observe their output with the exception of monetary observations such as sales or profit. TFP could be computed as in the manufacturing industry using such data, however, increased TFP does not necessarily indicate efficiency gain for retailers because it also includes the effects from the demand side. If demand increases, the TFP of retailers will increase. Therefore, we look at retailers' cost function rather than production function to study their efficiency. Assuming that the retail industry is competitive, we construct a cost model and identify the cost efficiency. In standard economic theory, duality holds for productivity and cost efficiency, though it is not clear in the present case. This paper deals with the retailers of goods with an inelastic supply function which include agricultural and marine products. We propose and apply a new empirical method to measure the retail industry efficiency of agricultural products using Japanese regional panel data of wholesale and market prices and traded quantity for a variety of vegetables from 2008 to 2014. The marginal cost efficiency was stable during this period.
{"title":"Efficiency of the Retail Industry and Inelastic Supply","authors":"Y. Konishi, Y. Nishiyama","doi":"10.47654/v24y2020i2p134-166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v24y2020i2p134-166","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a method to measure the efficiency of the retail industry. In the case of the manufacturing industry, we can define its efficiency by total factor productivity (TFP) based on the production function. Since retailers do not produce specific objects, we cannot observe their output with the exception of monetary observations such as sales or profit. TFP could be computed as in the manufacturing industry using such data, however, increased TFP does not necessarily indicate efficiency gain for retailers because it also includes the effects from the demand side. If demand increases, the TFP of retailers will increase. Therefore, we look at retailers' cost function rather than production function to study their efficiency. Assuming that the retail industry is competitive, we construct a cost model and identify the cost efficiency. In standard economic theory, duality holds for productivity and cost efficiency, though it is not clear in the present case. This paper deals with the retailers of goods with an inelastic supply function which include agricultural and marine products. We propose and apply a new empirical method to measure the retail industry efficiency of agricultural products using Japanese regional panel data of wholesale and market prices and traded quantity for a variety of vegetables from 2008 to 2014. The marginal cost efficiency was stable during this period.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"24 1","pages":"134-166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v24y2020i1p70-84
M. McAleer
The SARS-CoV-2 virus and the associated COVID-19 disease is a pandemic that has rocked the world in terms of public health and medical issues, business, economics and finance. Interesting and topical discussions regarding risk management of COVID-19 have been reported in leading business, economics, finance, and medical journals, as well as information and misinformation, intended or not, in the mass media. In this context, protecting the integrity of public policy pronouncements relating to the conduct and outcomes of scientific clinical trials. In terms of protecting the scientific integrity of clinical trials of COVID-19 patients, it is intentional to determine whether imperfectly collected data on clinical trials are more useful than having no data at all.
{"title":"Protecting Scientific Integrity and Public Policy Pronouncements on COVID-19","authors":"M. McAleer","doi":"10.47654/v24y2020i1p70-84","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v24y2020i1p70-84","url":null,"abstract":"The SARS-CoV-2 virus and the associated COVID-19 disease is a pandemic that has rocked the world in terms of public health and medical issues, business, economics and finance. Interesting and topical discussions regarding risk management of COVID-19 have been reported in leading business, economics, finance, and medical journals, as well as information and misinformation, intended or not, in the mass media. In this context, protecting the integrity of public policy pronouncements relating to the conduct and outcomes of scientific clinical trials. In terms of protecting the scientific integrity of clinical trials of COVID-19 patients, it is intentional to determine whether imperfectly collected data on clinical trials are more useful than having no data at all.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper explores the effect of nudges on dishonest academic behavior in a 3x4 factorial treatment design. Subjects had to throw a physical die 50 times, report the outcome and were given partial credit for their participation. 435 students were assigned to the following conditions: a) a nudge presenting an authoritarian instruction; 2) a nudge referring to the college code of honor; 3) a nudge that presented reasons for not cheating; and 4) a condition presenting no instruction at all. Additionally, within each condition, the partial credit incentive obtained from participating in the study varied. Some did not have it (n=166), others had a partial credit that represented 15% of the final grade (n=145), and, lastly, some of them had a partial credit that represented 2% or less of the final grade (n=124). Our results showed a significant difference between the group that had an academic incentive and the group that did not: t(433) = -2.35, p = 0.0190. However, we did not find any significant difference between any of the nudge conditions. Among students who could obtain academic credit, the incentive’s magnitude did not have an effect on the results of the task: t(267)=-0.90, p=0.3651. This indicates that the presence of incentives increases dishonest behavior, but their magnitude does not. These results suggest that when given an academic incentive to cheat, students will be dishonest, and they shed light on Colombian culture and on the effects of the education grading system. Finally, the study showed that the nudges that are reported in the literature are not as effective as they are said to be. In fact, more research should be dedicated to the effectiveness of nudges in different cultures and it should be done to look for effective nudges on academic settings.
本文采用3x4析因处理设计，探讨轻推对不诚实学术行为的影响。受试者必须掷50次骰子，报告结果，并因参与而获得部分积分。435名学生被分配到以下条件:a)一个提示，呈现专制指令;2)提及大学荣誉守则的轻推;3)提示不要作弊的理由;4)一种完全没有指导的情况。此外，在每个条件下，参与研究获得的部分信用激励是不同的。有些人没有(n=166)，有些人的部分学分占最终成绩的15% (n=145)，最后，有些人的部分学分占最终成绩的2%或更少(n=124)。我们的结果显示，有学术激励的组和没有学术激励的组之间存在显著差异:t(433) = -2.35, p = 0.0190。然而，我们没有发现任何助推条件之间的显著差异。在能够获得学分的学生中，激励的大小对任务的结果没有影响:t(267)=-0.90, p=0.3651。这表明，激励的存在增加了不诚实行为，但其大小没有。这些结果表明，在学术激励下，学生作弊会变得不诚实，这也揭示了哥伦比亚文化和教育评分制度的影响。最后，研究表明，文献中报道的推动并不像他们所说的那样有效。事实上，应该有更多的研究致力于不同文化中“轻推”的有效性，应该在学术环境中寻找有效的“轻推”。
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v24y2020i3p218-230
Chia‐Lin Chang, M. McAleer, V. Ramos
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease is now fully entrenched in the international community, and has devastated society in what might seem to be a parallel universe. The long-term medical, physical, psychological, economic and financial consequences for continents, countries, regions, states, provinces, prefectures, cities, and individuals is not yet known, but the short-term effects do not seem promising or encouraging. One of the most heavily affected industries by COVID-19 is the international travel, tourism demand and hospitality industry, which was one of the world’s largest sources of full-time and casual employment in the pre-COVID-19 era. The future of tourism in the COVID-19 era is presently unknown, but substantial research is required to evaluate how the industry might recover and survive in a new-normal COVID-19 world. The paper presents a discussion of the future of tourism, travel, and hospitality in the time of COVID-19 as a contribution to the industry. The paper presents a discussion of the future of tourism, travel, and hospitality industry. Public and private policy considerations include significant contingent planning to accommodate travel plans and restrictions, personal protection equipment, medical and healthcare requirements, major events, short, medium and long haul domestic and international travel by air and sea, public versus private transportation, hotel accommodation, alternative forms of payment and pre-payment, changes in the tourism and transport industries, changes in tourist behaviour, and potential structural changes.
{"title":"The Future of Tourism in the COVID-19 Era","authors":"Chia‐Lin Chang, M. McAleer, V. Ramos","doi":"10.47654/v24y2020i3p218-230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v24y2020i3p218-230","url":null,"abstract":"The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease is now fully entrenched in the international community, and has devastated society in what might seem to be a parallel universe. The long-term medical, physical, psychological, economic and financial consequences for continents, countries, regions, states, provinces, prefectures, cities, and individuals is not yet known, but the short-term effects do not seem promising or encouraging. One of the most heavily affected industries by COVID-19 is the international travel, tourism demand and hospitality industry, which was one of the world’s largest sources of full-time and casual employment in the pre-COVID-19 era. The future of tourism in the COVID-19 era is presently unknown, but substantial research is required to evaluate how the industry might recover and survive in a new-normal COVID-19 world. The paper presents a discussion of the future of tourism, travel, and hospitality in the time of COVID-19 as a contribution to the industry. The paper presents a discussion of the future of tourism, travel, and hospitality industry. Public and private policy considerations include significant contingent planning to accommodate travel plans and restrictions, personal protection equipment, medical and healthcare requirements, major events, short, medium and long haul domestic and international travel by air and sea, public versus private transportation, hotel accommodation, alternative forms of payment and pre-payment, changes in the tourism and transport industries, changes in tourist behaviour, and potential structural changes.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"24 1","pages":"218-230"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v24y2020i2p15-65
N. Hieu, Lam Minh Huy, Huynh Manh Phat, Nguyen Ngoc Anh, W. Wong
In the recent digital age, Decision Science plays an important role in many areas, including Education. Among the Educational trends that serve the fourth industrial revolution, STEM Education has been demonstrating its superiority through various studies from Europe to Asia. This study applies the STEMTech model, a model that connects the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics to create products with a central technological factor, to create STEM products in the context of High Schools in Vietnam. We first design the survey questionnaires and distribute the questionnaires to respondents to get our survey done. We then carry out a quantitative analysis to evaluate rubric and find positive feedback from students, the model provides a new approach to teaching in High Schools in the industrial age 4.0, helps students create STEM products and have a dynamic and creative learning environment, and helps teachers to create modern tools and approaches. The real-life applications of the STEM products show the suitability, vitality, and potential of applying the STEMTech model when it comes to teaching.
{"title":"Decision Sciences in Education: The STEMtech Model to Create Stem Products at High Schools in Vietnam","authors":"N. Hieu, Lam Minh Huy, Huynh Manh Phat, Nguyen Ngoc Anh, W. Wong","doi":"10.47654/v24y2020i2p15-65","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v24y2020i2p15-65","url":null,"abstract":"In the recent digital age, Decision Science plays an important role in many areas, including Education. Among the Educational trends that serve the fourth industrial revolution, STEM Education has been demonstrating its superiority through various studies from Europe to Asia. This study applies the STEMTech model, a model that connects the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics to create products with a central technological factor, to create STEM products in the context of High Schools in Vietnam. We first design the survey questionnaires and distribute the questionnaires to respondents to get our survey done. We then carry out a quantitative analysis to evaluate rubric and find positive feedback from students, the model provides a new approach to teaching in High Schools in the industrial age 4.0, helps students create STEM products and have a dynamic and creative learning environment, and helps teachers to create modern tools and approaches. The real-life applications of the STEM products show the suitability, vitality, and potential of applying the STEMTech model when it comes to teaching.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"24 1","pages":"15-65"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v23y2019i2p164-191
Dong Li, S. Ling, Guang Yang
Compound Poisson processes (CPP) constitute a fundamental class of stochastic processes and a basic building block for more complex jump-diffusion processes such as the Lévy processes. However, unlike those of a Brownian motion (BM), distributions of functionals, e.g. maxima, passage time, argmin and others, of a CPP are often intractable. The first objective of this paper is to propose a new approximation of a CPP by a BM so as to facilitate closed-form expressions in concrete cases. Specifically, we approximate, in some sense, a sequence of two-sided CPPs by a two-sided BM with drift. The second objective is to illustrate the above approximation in applications, such as the construction of confidence intervals of threshold parameters in threshold models, which include the threshold regression (also called two-phase regression or segmentation) and numerous threshold time series models. We conduct numerical simulations to assess the performance of the proposed approximation. We illustrate the use of our approach with a real data set.
{"title":"On Brownian Motion Approximation of Compound Poisson Processes with Applications to Threshold Models","authors":"Dong Li, S. Ling, Guang Yang","doi":"10.47654/v23y2019i2p164-191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v23y2019i2p164-191","url":null,"abstract":"Compound Poisson processes (CPP) constitute a fundamental class of stochastic processes and a basic building block for more complex jump-diffusion processes such as the Lévy processes. However, unlike those of a Brownian motion (BM), distributions of functionals, e.g. maxima, passage time, argmin and others, of a CPP are often intractable. The first objective of this paper is to propose a new approximation of a CPP by a BM so as to facilitate closed-form expressions in concrete cases. Specifically, we approximate, in some sense, a sequence of two-sided CPPs by a two-sided BM with drift. The second objective is to illustrate the above approximation in applications, such as the construction of confidence intervals of threshold parameters in threshold models, which include the threshold regression (also called two-phase regression or segmentation) and numerous threshold time series models. We conduct numerical simulations to assess the performance of the proposed approximation. We illustrate the use of our approach with a real data set.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70848581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v23y2019i2p1-14
{"title":"Mathematical Modelling of Decision-Making: Application to Investment","authors":"","doi":"10.47654/v23y2019i2p1-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v23y2019i2p1-14","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70848864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v23y2019i4p24-51
M. McAleer
We propose a new measure of disagreement based on connectedness, which generalizes the disagreement index introduced in Billio et al. (2018). Building on the lifting approach in Hendrickx (2014), we extend Billio et al. (2018) to signed networks, which allows us to consider more general consensus dynamics and disagreement with antagonistic behaviour. Synthetic and real-world financial networks of serial correlation are considered for illustrating the new measure and for studying opinion dynamics and convergence to consensus on prices for financial assets.
{"title":"Opinion Dynamics and Disagreements on Financial Networks","authors":"M. McAleer","doi":"10.47654/v23y2019i4p24-51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v23y2019i4p24-51","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new measure of disagreement based on connectedness, which generalizes the disagreement index introduced in Billio et al. (2018). Building on the lifting approach in Hendrickx (2014), we extend Billio et al. (2018) to signed networks, which allows us to consider more general consensus dynamics and disagreement with antagonistic behaviour. Synthetic and real-world financial networks of serial correlation are considered for illustrating the new measure and for studying opinion dynamics and convergence to consensus on prices for financial assets.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v23y2019i4p52-80
{"title":"Applications of the Newton-Raphson Method in Decision Sciences and Education","authors":"","doi":"10.47654/v23y2019i4p52-80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v23y2019i4p52-80","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70849354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.47654/v23y2019i3p56-92
Bunjira Makond, M. Eso
Violence is now widely recognized as a public health problem because of its significant consequences on the health and wellness of people and it remains a growing problem in many countries including Thailand. Elucidating the factors related to violence can provide information that can help to prevent violence and decrease the number of injuries. This study explored predictive data mining models which have high interpretability and prediction accuracy in classifying the outcomes of violence. After data preprocessing, a set of 21,424 incidents occurring from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from the Deep South Coordination Centre database. A correlation-based feature subset selection and decision tree technique with embedded feature selection were used for variable selection and four data mining techniques were applied to classify the violent outcomes into physical injury and no physical injury. The findings revealed that regardless of the variable selection method, gun was selected as a risk factor of physical injury. Moreover, a decision tree model with three variables, gun, zone, and solid/sharp weapon outperformed a naive Bayes model in terms of accurate performance and interpretability. Decision tree and artificial neural network models have similar levels of performance in classifying the outcome of violence but in practical terms, a decision tree model is more interpretable than an artificial neural network model.
{"title":"Predictive Models for Classifying the Outcomes of Violence: Case Study for Thailand’s Deep South","authors":"Bunjira Makond, M. Eso","doi":"10.47654/v23y2019i3p56-92","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47654/v23y2019i3p56-92","url":null,"abstract":"Violence is now widely recognized as a public health problem because of its significant consequences on the health and wellness of people and it remains a growing problem in many countries including Thailand. Elucidating the factors related to violence can provide information that can help to prevent violence and decrease the number of injuries. This study explored predictive data mining models which have high interpretability and prediction accuracy in classifying the outcomes of violence. After data preprocessing, a set of 21,424 incidents occurring from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from the Deep South Coordination Centre database. A correlation-based feature subset selection and decision tree technique with embedded feature selection were used for variable selection and four data mining techniques were applied to classify the violent outcomes into physical injury and no physical injury. The findings revealed that regardless of the variable selection method, gun was selected as a risk factor of physical injury. Moreover, a decision tree model with three variables, gun, zone, and solid/sharp weapon outperformed a naive Bayes model in terms of accurate performance and interpretability. Decision tree and artificial neural network models have similar levels of performance in classifying the outcome of violence but in practical terms, a decision tree model is more interpretable than an artificial neural network model.","PeriodicalId":38875,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Decision Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70848890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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