Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893803
J. Acai, J. Amadi-Echendu, I. Mutenyo
The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by member states of the United Nations in September 2015 now demand countries to align their development agenda towards sustainability based on country specific priorities. For developing countries, progress towards sustainable road infrastructure has generally been sluggish, despite the availability of pertinent technologies to support sustainable development of pavement infrastructure. These technologies incorporate sustainability parameters across the entire pavement life-cycle (design/materials, construction, use, maintenance, and end-of-life). This paper examines the applicability of the road pavement technologies against the sustainability indicators in the context of a developing country.
{"title":"A Review of the Technologies Towards Sustainability Assessment of Pavement Infrastructure","authors":"J. Acai, J. Amadi-Echendu, I. Mutenyo","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893803","url":null,"abstract":"The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by member states of the United Nations in September 2015 now demand countries to align their development agenda towards sustainability based on country specific priorities. For developing countries, progress towards sustainable road infrastructure has generally been sluggish, despite the availability of pertinent technologies to support sustainable development of pavement infrastructure. These technologies incorporate sustainability parameters across the entire pavement life-cycle (design/materials, construction, use, maintenance, and end-of-life). This paper examines the applicability of the road pavement technologies against the sustainability indicators in the context of a developing country.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117005276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893963
Masayuki Hirose
This paper is a modest attempt to revisit linkages between backward and forward citations posed by Trajtenberg, Henderson and Jaffe. In their literature known as the leading study, they suggest that more original research, as well as research that draws from far removed technological areas, lead to innovations of wider technological applicability. It is still unclear, however, whether backward citations captures patent importance. Although it is becoming clear that forward citations are a good predictor of important inventions, it is imperative to take quite a wide time window in order to get significant coverage of forward citations, which makes it difficult to count all of the forward citations in early stage. This problem could be more remarkable in such countries as Japan with examination-on-demand system. On the other hand, patent examination has been accelerated after the Accelerated Examination System (AES) was implemented in Japan. This means that there is a high possibility among applications examined under AES that backward citations cited by such applications are visible in public in early stage (i.e. at the time of laying-open publication of the applications). This trend can be an important issue for practitioners who use patent information as a tool for innovation research.
{"title":"How Can a Technology Manager Find a Technological Generality in Its Early Stage: Revisiting Backward-Forward Citation Analysis","authors":"Masayuki Hirose","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893963","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is a modest attempt to revisit linkages between backward and forward citations posed by Trajtenberg, Henderson and Jaffe. In their literature known as the leading study, they suggest that more original research, as well as research that draws from far removed technological areas, lead to innovations of wider technological applicability. It is still unclear, however, whether backward citations captures patent importance. Although it is becoming clear that forward citations are a good predictor of important inventions, it is imperative to take quite a wide time window in order to get significant coverage of forward citations, which makes it difficult to count all of the forward citations in early stage. This problem could be more remarkable in such countries as Japan with examination-on-demand system. On the other hand, patent examination has been accelerated after the Accelerated Examination System (AES) was implemented in Japan. This means that there is a high possibility among applications examined under AES that backward citations cited by such applications are visible in public in early stage (i.e. at the time of laying-open publication of the applications). This trend can be an important issue for practitioners who use patent information as a tool for innovation research.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129847278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893916
A. Elizondo-Noriega, N. Tiruvengadam, David Güemes-Castorena, V. Tercero-Gómez, M. Beruvides
Over the past decade, leasing, as opposed to purchasing, has gained prominence regarding acquiring capital-intensive industrial robots. Investments in plant automation have seen significant growth over this time given the increasing need for higher productivity and quality. To offset the concomitant rise in automation equipment costs, organizations are increasingly relying on leasing such equipment. The leasing approach allows companies to reduce both the risks associated with and costs of new equipment acquisition. Initial automation efforts typically tend to be experimental, and the leasing of equipment allows organizations to test the efficacy of such efforts before committing to a final leasing/purchasing decision without expending heavily. Despite there being vast extant literature on automation through the use of industrial robots, the dynamics and effects of leasing decisions still need to be understood better. Simulation based on System Dynamics (SD) has been used in this study given that it has been demonstrated to be robust to information scarcity, a problem typically associated with data underpinning leasing decisions. A new dynamic archetype based on SD, which is an upgrade of a previously established static technological archetype, modeling the economic effects of leasing an industrial robot for a manufacturing facility is proposed.
{"title":"A System Dynamics-Based Technological Archetype for the Economics of Leasing Capital-Intensive Industrial Robots","authors":"A. Elizondo-Noriega, N. Tiruvengadam, David Güemes-Castorena, V. Tercero-Gómez, M. Beruvides","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893916","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decade, leasing, as opposed to purchasing, has gained prominence regarding acquiring capital-intensive industrial robots. Investments in plant automation have seen significant growth over this time given the increasing need for higher productivity and quality. To offset the concomitant rise in automation equipment costs, organizations are increasingly relying on leasing such equipment. The leasing approach allows companies to reduce both the risks associated with and costs of new equipment acquisition. Initial automation efforts typically tend to be experimental, and the leasing of equipment allows organizations to test the efficacy of such efforts before committing to a final leasing/purchasing decision without expending heavily. Despite there being vast extant literature on automation through the use of industrial robots, the dynamics and effects of leasing decisions still need to be understood better. Simulation based on System Dynamics (SD) has been used in this study given that it has been demonstrated to be robust to information scarcity, a problem typically associated with data underpinning leasing decisions. A new dynamic archetype based on SD, which is an upgrade of a previously established static technological archetype, modeling the economic effects of leasing an industrial robot for a manufacturing facility is proposed.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129862617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893922
G. Schuh, Marc Patzwald, Maria Cristina Imhäuser Cardoso
As a result of various influences such as globalization, digitalization or industry convergence, companies are confronted with an increased level of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) in their corporate environment. To maintain competitive advantage in this environment, companies, especially in the manufacturing sector, are forced to build up new competences aside their core business to evade commodification. Strategically managing the company's competence- and technology portfolio to build sustainable competitiveness in a long-term technology strategy is heavily impeded by the VUCA environment: Current technology strategy concepts are strongly linked to technology planning, allowing volatility on the planning level to result in strategy changes. As strategic positioning remains a crucial factor for a company's sustainable success, an adjusted concept for technology strategy is required enabling companies to consistently manage their long-term competence- and technology portfolio in a volatile environment. Therefore, the authors discuss the status-quo of technology strategy development in this paper and systematically derive the deficits that arise from a volatile corporate environment. Based on the identified deficits a first attempt is taken to develop requirements for a VUCA-resilient technology strategy development. Adapting technology strategy development to these requirements shall help companies to ensure a consistent long-term corporate development.
{"title":"Resilient Technology Strategy in Volatile Environments: Derivation of Requirements to Enable Long-Term Strategic Positioning in Times of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity","authors":"G. Schuh, Marc Patzwald, Maria Cristina Imhäuser Cardoso","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893922","url":null,"abstract":"As a result of various influences such as globalization, digitalization or industry convergence, companies are confronted with an increased level of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) in their corporate environment. To maintain competitive advantage in this environment, companies, especially in the manufacturing sector, are forced to build up new competences aside their core business to evade commodification. Strategically managing the company's competence- and technology portfolio to build sustainable competitiveness in a long-term technology strategy is heavily impeded by the VUCA environment: Current technology strategy concepts are strongly linked to technology planning, allowing volatility on the planning level to result in strategy changes. As strategic positioning remains a crucial factor for a company's sustainable success, an adjusted concept for technology strategy is required enabling companies to consistently manage their long-term competence- and technology portfolio in a volatile environment. Therefore, the authors discuss the status-quo of technology strategy development in this paper and systematically derive the deficits that arise from a volatile corporate environment. Based on the identified deficits a first attempt is taken to develop requirements for a VUCA-resilient technology strategy development. Adapting technology strategy development to these requirements shall help companies to ensure a consistent long-term corporate development.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129043722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/picmet.2019.8893850
Shinwon Seo, Jae-Min Lee, Heyoung Yang, Seonho Kim
Many researchers and organizations have been archiving and analyzing vast documents and data for technology evaluations and emerging technology mining. Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) as one of them, has been collecting various technological data from technical literatures, such as patents and papers, and developing techniques to analyze and retrieve various quantitative features from it. Lately, the demand of utilizing our resources, data and technologies, for developing an intelligent technology information system which output is objective, consistent, and explainable, has been increase. By applying the latest advanced artificial intelligent techniques, deep learning, to our data and system, it is possible to improve our capability of evaluating technology and mining future emerging technology. For this reason, it is necessary to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness of each quantitative features of technology which are retrieved from technical literature analysis. In this paper, we present the results of our study of testing the effectiveness of various quantitative features of technology, which are being referred by human experts in technology evaluation and future emerging technology mining process, in both empirical and statistical ways. In the empirical approach, an artificial intelligent model is built to simulate the human expert group for emerging technology mining and the change of the performance is observed while the training features are changed. In the statistical approach, the relations between the basic distribution variables of data and the decision making is analyzed.
{"title":"Can AI Tell Emerging Technologies: Evaluating the Importance of Quantitative Features of Technology","authors":"Shinwon Seo, Jae-Min Lee, Heyoung Yang, Seonho Kim","doi":"10.23919/picmet.2019.8893850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/picmet.2019.8893850","url":null,"abstract":"Many researchers and organizations have been archiving and analyzing vast documents and data for technology evaluations and emerging technology mining. Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) as one of them, has been collecting various technological data from technical literatures, such as patents and papers, and developing techniques to analyze and retrieve various quantitative features from it. Lately, the demand of utilizing our resources, data and technologies, for developing an intelligent technology information system which output is objective, consistent, and explainable, has been increase. By applying the latest advanced artificial intelligent techniques, deep learning, to our data and system, it is possible to improve our capability of evaluating technology and mining future emerging technology. For this reason, it is necessary to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness of each quantitative features of technology which are retrieved from technical literature analysis. In this paper, we present the results of our study of testing the effectiveness of various quantitative features of technology, which are being referred by human experts in technology evaluation and future emerging technology mining process, in both empirical and statistical ways. In the empirical approach, an artificial intelligent model is built to simulate the human expert group for emerging technology mining and the change of the performance is observed while the training features are changed. In the statistical approach, the relations between the basic distribution variables of data and the decision making is analyzed.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"52 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129139025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893946
Ana Cecilia Moreno Alamo, Carlos Guillermo Hernández Cenzano, Eduardo Raúl del Rosario Quinteros
A technology watching study based bibliometric analysis and in patent analysis, of current technologies and study of methods for preventive control to solve transient stability problems in Electrical Power Systems (EPS), is made. Likewise, current systems used for real-time operation that guarantee safe operation in Electrical power systems, are analyzed. In the study of current technologies, we look for solutions based on the application of direct methods to guarantee secure operation for different contingences scenarios of the EPS. This study allows formulate the preventive control as an optimal power flow (OPF) problem with transient stability constraints formulated through direct methods with the target to accelerate computational process. This formulation will be applied in an Electrical Power system, having a reduced number of control variables.
{"title":"Preventive Control to the Transient Stability Problem in Electrical Power Systems","authors":"Ana Cecilia Moreno Alamo, Carlos Guillermo Hernández Cenzano, Eduardo Raúl del Rosario Quinteros","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893946","url":null,"abstract":"A technology watching study based bibliometric analysis and in patent analysis, of current technologies and study of methods for preventive control to solve transient stability problems in Electrical Power Systems (EPS), is made. Likewise, current systems used for real-time operation that guarantee safe operation in Electrical power systems, are analyzed. In the study of current technologies, we look for solutions based on the application of direct methods to guarantee secure operation for different contingences scenarios of the EPS. This study allows formulate the preventive control as an optimal power flow (OPF) problem with transient stability constraints formulated through direct methods with the target to accelerate computational process. This formulation will be applied in an Electrical Power system, having a reduced number of control variables.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129455381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893652
G. Downs
Although a considerable amount of research has been conducted that explores the relationship between various student-specific factors and satisfaction with online learning, the body of research that specifically explores the relationship between personality and online learning satisfaction is still emerging. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on this topic by exploring the correlational relationships between those personality traits that are most dominant in undergraduate technology students (i.e., students who have declared a major in the University of interest's College of Technology) and satisfaction with specific aspects of online learning. This paper makes use of self-reported student scores from the NEO-FFI-3, a 60 question inventory that measures personality profiles in the ‘Big Five’ personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism), and from a survey that measures five unique dimensions of student satisfaction with online learning. Correlations between personality and satisfaction scores are reported, and recommendations are made for how technology educators might best construct their online course curricula to align with the personality profiles of their students.
{"title":"An Exploration of the Relationship between Personality Type and Satisfaction with Online Learning Environments","authors":"G. Downs","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893652","url":null,"abstract":"Although a considerable amount of research has been conducted that explores the relationship between various student-specific factors and satisfaction with online learning, the body of research that specifically explores the relationship between personality and online learning satisfaction is still emerging. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on this topic by exploring the correlational relationships between those personality traits that are most dominant in undergraduate technology students (i.e., students who have declared a major in the University of interest's College of Technology) and satisfaction with specific aspects of online learning. This paper makes use of self-reported student scores from the NEO-FFI-3, a 60 question inventory that measures personality profiles in the ‘Big Five’ personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism), and from a survey that measures five unique dimensions of student satisfaction with online learning. Correlations between personality and satisfaction scores are reported, and recommendations are made for how technology educators might best construct their online course curricula to align with the personality profiles of their students.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130361771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893874
A. Elizondo-Noriega, N. Tiruvengadam, David Güemes-Castorena, V. Tercero-Gómez, M. Beruvides
Over time, all industries have adapted to the ever-increasing demand for higher product quality and throughput by embracing automation and industrial robots. The impact of the purchasing decision of automation equipment such as robots on an organization's profitability needs to be better understood, given the paucity of published empirical data on the topic. One alternative approach to deal with the scarcity of data is simulation, and among the available simulation methods for redressing this issue, System Dynamics (SD) has proved to be a reliable alternative. This work presents a SD-based simulation model for the purchasing decision of an industrial robot (purchasing option) within a manufacturing organization that is based on a previously established technological archetype. The intent of this study is to create a suitable simulation environment based on a combination of the two simulation models to study in greater detail the economic effects of purchasing industrial robots.
{"title":"System Dynamics Modeling of the Effects of the Decision to Purchase Industrial Robots on a Manufacturing Organization","authors":"A. Elizondo-Noriega, N. Tiruvengadam, David Güemes-Castorena, V. Tercero-Gómez, M. Beruvides","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893874","url":null,"abstract":"Over time, all industries have adapted to the ever-increasing demand for higher product quality and throughput by embracing automation and industrial robots. The impact of the purchasing decision of automation equipment such as robots on an organization's profitability needs to be better understood, given the paucity of published empirical data on the topic. One alternative approach to deal with the scarcity of data is simulation, and among the available simulation methods for redressing this issue, System Dynamics (SD) has proved to be a reliable alternative. This work presents a SD-based simulation model for the purchasing decision of an industrial robot (purchasing option) within a manufacturing organization that is based on a previously established technological archetype. The intent of this study is to create a suitable simulation environment based on a combination of the two simulation models to study in greater detail the economic effects of purchasing industrial robots.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121270456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893792
M. Jianquan, L. Xuan, W. Hongwei, Liao Yingjie
In 2010, China released National Medium and Long-Term Talents Development Plan (2010–2020) and proposed 12 major talent projects. Based on the goals of these Talent Project, this paper divides twelve major talent projects into 40 sub-tasks and 56 task objectives. Through the logical framework method and statistical analysis, this paper compares the objectives with actual completion, and finds that although the major talent project as a whole is promoted in an orderly manner under the impetus of the ministries and commissions, there are still obstructions in policy implementation such as follows: document implementation, conflict of policies among various departments, lack of systematic design, etc., which means the policy lacks of systematic, persistent and stability. These reasons lead to the results that the less the leading departments are, the better the projects performed; the less complex the object talents are, the better the projects performed; some of the talent projects are even reduced as political achievement. The implementation of talent projects need to be further optimized and improved.
{"title":"The Effectiveness and Problems of Talent Policy Implementation in China: Taking Major Talent Project as an Example","authors":"M. Jianquan, L. Xuan, W. Hongwei, Liao Yingjie","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893792","url":null,"abstract":"In 2010, China released National Medium and Long-Term Talents Development Plan (2010–2020) and proposed 12 major talent projects. Based on the goals of these Talent Project, this paper divides twelve major talent projects into 40 sub-tasks and 56 task objectives. Through the logical framework method and statistical analysis, this paper compares the objectives with actual completion, and finds that although the major talent project as a whole is promoted in an orderly manner under the impetus of the ministries and commissions, there are still obstructions in policy implementation such as follows: document implementation, conflict of policies among various departments, lack of systematic design, etc., which means the policy lacks of systematic, persistent and stability. These reasons lead to the results that the less the leading departments are, the better the projects performed; the less complex the object talents are, the better the projects performed; some of the talent projects are even reduced as political achievement. The implementation of talent projects need to be further optimized and improved.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116308797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893966
Minhyuk Sur, Deok-Joo Lee, Donghyun An
In this paper, we analyze the strategic investment decision problem considering the uncertainty of not only technology but also market demand using a two-stage game-theoretic real option model. In the first stage two firms compete with R&D investment by which the firm can enter a new market according to the success or failure of R&D. And then in the second stage, the both firms decide whether to enter the market or postpone until the demand uncertainty would be resolved. The payoff functions are formulated by using a binomial real options model to incorporate the technological and market uncertainty. As a result, we found the Bayesian Nash equilibrium which characterizes the optimal investment decision strategies for both companies, which can be used to calculate the optimal level of profits. Numerical experiments with graphical illustrations are presented to demonstrate the optimality of strategies whereby the two firms maximize their own profits. In addition, on the basis of the results of optimal profits and strategies, the present study performs sensitivity analysis with regard to various exogenous variables that could affect the profits and strategies.
{"title":"A Game Theoretic Real Option Model for Strategic Decision on R&D and Commercialization Considering Uncertain Technology and Market","authors":"Minhyuk Sur, Deok-Joo Lee, Donghyun An","doi":"10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23919/PICMET.2019.8893966","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the strategic investment decision problem considering the uncertainty of not only technology but also market demand using a two-stage game-theoretic real option model. In the first stage two firms compete with R&D investment by which the firm can enter a new market according to the success or failure of R&D. And then in the second stage, the both firms decide whether to enter the market or postpone until the demand uncertainty would be resolved. The payoff functions are formulated by using a binomial real options model to incorporate the technological and market uncertainty. As a result, we found the Bayesian Nash equilibrium which characterizes the optimal investment decision strategies for both companies, which can be used to calculate the optimal level of profits. Numerical experiments with graphical illustrations are presented to demonstrate the optimality of strategies whereby the two firms maximize their own profits. In addition, on the basis of the results of optimal profits and strategies, the present study performs sensitivity analysis with regard to various exogenous variables that could affect the profits and strategies.","PeriodicalId":390110,"journal":{"name":"2019 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121534043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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