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Exploring the impact of cash flow, company size, and debt on financial performance in corporations 探讨现金流、公司规模和债务对公司财务绩效的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.22
Arta Hoti Arifaj, Vlora Berisha, Fisnik Morina, Elsa Avdyli
This paper investigates the impact of operating cash flows, company size, and debt (including both cash and operating flows) on the financial performance of Kosovo’s ten most prominent publicly traded companies. Various analytical techniques were employed for hypothesis testing, including OLS linear regression analysis, correlation analysis between variables, and statistical tests such as the T-test and Ratio test. The financial performance analysis involves utilizing Return on Assets (ROA) as the dependent variable, while the independent variables encompass operating cash flows (CFO), firm size, and financial leverage.The study’s findings reveal noteworthy insights. Although cash flow (p > 0.05) is not observed to have a significant impact, larger company size (p < 0.01) is associated with diminished financial performance. Conversely, higher debt leverage (p < 0.01) is linked to enhanced financial performance. Consequently, the results underscore the significant economic implications that firm size and financial leverage hold for the financial performance of corporations in Kosovo, as indicated by ROA.The observation that firms size plays a substantial role in financial performance aligns cohesively with established economic theory. As companies expand, they often encounter challenges related to efficient resource management.
本文研究了经营性现金流、公司规模和债务(包括现金和经营流量)对科索沃十大最著名上市公司财务绩效的影响。假设检验采用了多种分析方法,包括OLS线性回归分析、变量间相关性分析以及t检验、Ratio检验等统计检验。财务绩效分析包括利用资产收益率(ROA)作为因变量,而自变量包括经营现金流量(CFO),公司规模和财务杠杆。这项研究的发现揭示了一些值得注意的见解。虽然现金流量(p >0.05)未观察到有显著影响,较大的公司规模(p <0.01)与财务业绩下降有关。相反,更高的债务杠杆(p <0.01)与提高财务业绩有关。因此,研究结果强调了公司规模和财务杠杆对科索沃公司财务绩效的重要经济影响,如ROA所示。公司规模在财务绩效中发挥重要作用的观察结果与既定的经济理论紧密一致。随着公司的扩张,他们经常遇到与有效的资源管理相关的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the contribution of IFRS to improving the relevance of financial performance measures: A comparative study with Moroccan Accounting Standards 国际财务报告准则对改善财务绩效指标相关性的贡献分析:与摩洛哥会计准则的比较研究
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.21
Adil Laouane, Mohamed Torra
The implementation of the international accounting framework has led to a new philosophy of estimating and valuing the financial performance of companies. In this respect, the accounting indicators derived from financial statements constitute the classic measures of performance evaluation, such as ROE, ROA, BPA, and Payout. However, their usefulness is contested in the face of market-based indicators like TSR, MVA, PBR, and dividend yield. This paper aims to assess the effect of adopting IFRS on the relevance of financial performance measures through a comparative approach with Moroccan GAAP. At the empirical level, the use of multiple regressions on panel data remains strongly solicited to test the informational relevance of these indicators. In number, there are 115 observations collected from IFRS-adopting companies and 418 observations from non-adopting companies over the period 2013–2022. The study revealed a significant impact of the adoption of IFRS on the informational relevance of accounting indicators (adjusted R2(IFRS) = 71.12% against adjusted R2(Moroccan GAAP) = 55.03%). However, this study found a less significant effect of IFRS on the degree of relevance of stock market performance indicators (adjusted R2 (IFRS) = 50.36% versus adjusted R2(Moroccan GAAP) = 63.84 %). The study also showed a significant effect of IFRS on the complementarity between accounting and stock market performance indicators to explain the total shareholder return (adjusted R2(IFRS) = 69.02% against adjusted R2(Moroccan GAAP) = 58.01%).
国际会计框架的实施导致了一种新的估计和评估公司财务绩效的理念。在这方面,来自财务报表的会计指标构成了绩效评估的经典度量,如ROE、ROA、BPA和派息。然而,面对基于市场的指标,如TSR、MVA、PBR和股息收益率,它们的实用性受到了质疑。本文旨在通过与摩洛哥公认会计准则的比较方法,评估采用国际财务报告准则对财务绩效指标相关性的影响。在经验层面上,对面板数据的多重回归的使用仍然强烈要求测试这些指标的信息相关性。在2013-2022年期间,从采用ifrs的公司收集了115条观察结果,从未采用ifrs的公司收集了418条观察结果。研究显示,采用国际财务报告准则对会计指标的信息相关性有显著影响(调整后的R2(IFRS) = 71.12%,而调整后的R2(摩洛哥公认会计准则)= 55.03%)。然而,本研究发现,国际财务报告准则对股票市场绩效指标相关性程度的影响不太显著(调整后的R2(IFRS) = 50.36%,而调整后的R2(摩洛哥公认会计准则)= 63.84%)。研究还表明,国际财务报告准则对会计和股票市场绩效指标之间的互补性有显著影响,可以解释股东总回报(调整后的R2(国际财务报告准则)= 69.02%,而调整后的R2(摩洛哥公认会计准则)= 58.01%)。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy and financial attitude on financial management behavior: An examination of the mediating role of the behavioral intention of students at private universities in Indonesia 财务素养和财务态度对财务管理行为的影响:印尼私立大学学生行为意向的中介作用研究
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.20
Sri Fitri, Indonesia Muhammad, Jufrizen Shareza Hafiz, entan-© Sri, Fitri Wahyuni, Radiman, Muhammad Shareza, Jufrizen Hafiz, Sri Fitri Wahyuni, Hafiz, .Acc Lecturer
Financial management behavior is an implementation action of planning and managing a person’s financial resources, both in consumption and investment activities, which can show a person’s characteristics in financial management based on the risks that arise so that each needs good control. This study aims to determine the impact of financial literacy and financial attitude on financial management behavior, mediated by the behavioral intentions of university students. The participants in this study are undergraduate students currently enrolled at prestigious private universities in Medan (North Sumatra, Indonesia). This study’s population and sample consisted of students from the Faculty of Economics and Business at Private Universities in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Purposive and snowball sampling were used with data collection techniques, namely online questionnaires. The Likert scale measures indicators in responses to statements and questions. There were 150 respondents for this study’s data collection. The findings of the study indicate that financial literacy influences financial management behavior and behavioral intentions (p < 0.05). Financial attitude affects financial management behavior (p < 0.05), financial attitude does not affect behavioral intentions (p > 0.05), and behavioral intention affects Financial Management Behavior (p < 0.05). Behavioral intentions do not mediate the effect of financial literacy on Financial Management Behavior (p > 0.05), and the effect of financial attitudes on Financial Management Behavior is not mediated by behavioral intentions (p > 0.05).AcknowledgmentsThis study is supported by all levels of management at Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara for funding Fundamental research in 2022 and thanks also to the ranks of the Institute of Research and Community Service (LPPM) Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara.
财务管理行为是对个人的财务资源进行规划和管理的实施行为,无论是在消费活动中还是在投资活动中,它都可以根据所产生的风险显示出个人在财务管理中的特点,从而使每个人都需要良好的控制。本研究旨在探讨在大学生行为意向的中介作用下,理财素养和理财态度对理财行为的影响。本研究的参与者是目前就读于棉兰(北苏门答腊,印度尼西亚)著名私立大学的本科生。本研究的人口和样本包括来自印度尼西亚北苏门答腊岛私立大学经济与商业学院的学生。目的和滚雪球抽样采用数据收集技术,即在线问卷。李克特量表测量对陈述和问题的反应指标。这项研究的数据收集有150名受访者。研究结果表明,财务素养影响财务管理行为和行为意向(p <0.05)。理财态度影响理财行为(p <0.05),财务态度不影响行为意向(p >行为意向影响财务管理行为(p <0.05)。行为意向不中介财务素养对财务管理行为的影响(p >财务态度对财务管理行为的影响不受行为意向的中介作用(p >0.05)。本研究得到了Universitas Muhammadiyah sumata Utara各级管理层的支持,为2022年的基础研究提供资金,同时也感谢Universitas Muhammadiyah sumata Utara研究与社区服务研究所(LPPM)。
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引用次数: 1
Relationship between cash holding and capital structure of Vietnamese public companies in the COVID-19 pandemic context 新冠疫情背景下越南上市公司现金持有量与资本结构的关系
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.18
Pham Thi Lan Anh, Dang Ngoc Hung, Vu Thi Thanh Binh
Determining the capital and cash holdings pattern is among the most critical decisions of firm executives. This study investigates the link between cash holdings and capital structure to help executives consider the best pattern of capital and cash. The study collected a sample of 5,747 observations from public companies in Vietnam during 2019–2022 and employed the panel data regression method for analysis. The findings demonstrate a correlation between capital structure and cash holding ratio that is statistically significant. However, these relationships are inconsistent between the cash holdings and each component of the capital structure. Current debt and total debt ratios have a positive and linear association with cash holdings, while non-current debt ratio has a negative and nonlinear association. The study highlights a heterogeneous association of the cash holding ratio with three proxies of debt structure. The results reveal that, during COVID-19, the effects of the non-current debt ratio on cash holding and of cash holding on the current debt ratio have no statistical significance.
确定资本和现金持有模式是公司高管最关键的决策之一。本研究探讨现金持有量与资本结构之间的关系,以帮助高管考虑资本和现金的最佳模式。本研究收集了2019-2022年越南上市公司5,747个观察样本,并采用面板数据回归方法进行分析。研究结果表明,资本结构与现金持有比率之间存在显著的相关性。然而,现金持有量与资本结构各组成部分之间的关系并不一致。流动负债率和总负债率与现金持有量呈正线性关系,而非流动负债率与现金持有量呈正非线性关系。该研究强调了现金持有比率与债务结构的三个代理之间的异质关联。结果表明,在COVID-19期间,非流动负债率对现金持有量的影响和现金持有量对流动负债率的影响均无统计学意义。
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引用次数: 0
Does management of working capital enhance firm value? Empirical analysis of manufacturing enterprises in India 营运资金管理能提升公司价值吗?印度制造业企业的实证分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.19
Rupali Gupta, Sunita Jatav, Gagan Prakash
The long-term financial health of a corporation is assessed by its capacity to meet short-term financial commitments. Optimum working capital that maximizes enterprise value varies across companies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Indian manufacturing enterprises’ firm values are influenced by working capital management efficiency. The data are taken from 2016 to 2022 (a seven-year period) for 223 top BSE-listed manufacturing companies. Firm value (explained variable) is proxied using Tobin’s Q, and the constituents of working capital, which include the net trade cycle, inventory period, debtors’ collection period, and creditor payment period, are taken as explanatory variables. The study also controls for any differences in firm characteristics and economic conditions by employing firm size, age, current ratio, net profit ratio, sale growth and GDP growth rate. Balanced-panel data analysis is conducted by employing a two-step generalized method of moment technique. Net trade cycle, inventory period and debtors’ collection period are found to have a strong and significant positive impact on Tobin’s Q. The findings however did not report any evidence of the significant relationship between creditor payment period and Tobin’s Q. Additionally, the outcomes also evidenced that firm value is positively impacted by company size, net profit ratio, sales growth and GDP, whereas negatively affected by firm age. This paper suggests that manufacturing firms may potentially enhance their firm value by prolonging the net trade cycle, period of inventory and lengthening the credit period to customers till the level of attainment of an optimum working capital.
公司的长期财务健康状况是通过其履行短期财务承诺的能力来评估的。使企业价值最大化的最佳营运资本因公司而异。本文的目的是研究印度制造企业的企业价值是否受到营运资金管理效率的影响。该数据取自2016年至2022年(7年期间)223家在疯牛病上市的顶级制造公司。企业价值(被解释变量)用托宾Q来表示,营运资金的组成部分,包括净贸易周期、库存周期、债务人催收周期和债权人付款周期,作为解释变量。该研究还通过采用企业规模、年龄、流动比率、净利润比率、销售增长率和GDP增长率来控制企业特征和经济条件的任何差异。采用两步广义矩法对平衡面板数据进行了分析。净贸易周期、库存期和债务人催收期对托宾q有强烈而显著的正向影响。然而,研究结果没有报告任何证据表明债权人还款期与托宾q之间存在显著关系。此外,研究结果还证明,公司价值受到公司规模、净利润比率、销售增长和GDP的积极影响,而受到公司年龄的负面影响。本文认为,制造业企业可以通过延长净贸易周期、库存周期和延长对客户的信贷周期来潜在地提高企业价值,直到达到最佳营运资金水平。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of personality traits on investment decision-making: Mediating role of investor sentiment in India 人格特质对投资决策的影响:印度投资者情绪的中介作用
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.17
Aditi N. Kamath, Sandeep S. Shenoy, Subrahmanya Kumar, Subrahmanya Abhilash, N. Kumar
The behavior of investors and their investment decision-making process in the financial markets are guided by psychological (sentiments) and personal characteristics (personality traits). Research in recent years has shown the connection between investor sentiment and personality traits and investment decisions. Though academic works in the field of behavioral finance are growing, studies on personality traits and investment decision-making with investor sentiment as a mediator are sparse. To this end, the paper aims to analyze the effects of Indian retail investors’ Big-five personality traits (Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness) on their short-term and long-term investment decision-making with the mediating effect of investor sentiment. The study employs the Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Model to test the framed hypotheses. The findings of the study reveal that Neuroticism has a significant positive effect (β=0.352, p<0.05) on investor sentiment. It further shows that Extraversion has a significant positive effect (β=0.186, p<0.05) on long-term decision-making. On the contrary, the consciousness trait has a significant negative effect (β=-0.335, p<0.05) on short-term investment decision-making. Furthermore, the Openness trait demonstrates a significant effect on both short-term and long-term investment decision-making (β=0.357, p<0.05; β=0.007, p<0.05). However, the findings reveal no significant intervening effect of investor sentiment between personality traits and investment decision-making. Thus, the study strongly exerted the impact of investors’ personality traits on their investment decision-making due to the high influence of personal characteristics over sentiment effects.
投资者在金融市场中的行为及其投资决策过程受到心理(情绪)和个人特征(人格特征)的指导。近年来的研究表明,投资者情绪与个性特征和投资决策之间存在联系。虽然行为金融领域的学术研究越来越多,但以投资者情绪为中介的人格特质与投资决策的研究却很少。为此,本文旨在分析印度散户投资者的大五人格特征(神经质、外向性、经验开放性、亲和性和责任心)在投资者情绪的中介作用下对其短期和长期投资决策的影响。本研究采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型对所构建的假设进行检验。研究发现,神经质对投资者情绪有显著的正向影响(β=0.352, p<0.05)。研究进一步表明,外倾性对长期决策有显著的正向影响(β=0.186, p<0.05)。相反,意识特质对短期投资决策有显著的负向影响(β=-0.335, p<0.05)。此外,开放性特质对短期和长期投资决策均有显著影响(β=0.357, p<0.05;术中β= 0.007,0.05)。然而,研究结果显示投资者情绪在人格特质与投资决策之间没有显著的中介作用。因此,由于个人特征对情绪效应的高度影响,本研究强烈地施加了投资者人格特质对其投资决策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainability-related disclosure rules and financial market indicators: Searching for interconnections in developed and developing countries 与可持续性相关的信息披露规则与金融市场指标:发达国家与发展中国家的相互联系
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.16
Inna Makarenko, A. Vorontsova, L. Sergiienko, Iryna Hrabchuk, Mykola Gorodysky
In today’s fast-paced business environment, integrating sustainability into financial decision-making has been a key driver of change. As stakeholders increasingly demand greater corporate transparency and accountability, regulatory bodies have stepped in to ensure that sustainability reporting is standardized and robust. This paper aims to establish the relationship between the sustainability-related disclosure rules and the dynamic indicators of the financial market. The object of the study is 74 countries of the world, which are grouped into developed and developing countries. The time period is 2021, for the stock market capitalization indicators – 2020, as the most recent years with available data. The research methods are normality tests (Shapiro-Wilk and Shapiro-Francia test), comparison methods (Student’s t-test and Mann-Whitney U test, regression analysis with dummy variables), linear and non-linear correlation and regression analysis (logarithmic, polynomial). The results obtained confirmed that the sustainability-related disclosure rules are higher in developed countries than in developing ones. At the same time, in developed countries, the growth of such requirements affects the increase in stock price volatility, stock market capitalization, foreign direct and portfolio investments. For developing countries, there is also an increase in the stock market capitalization, portfolio investments and the volume of stock trading. Recognizing these trends can benefit both financial market regulators and participants to encourage the formation of a transparent and efficient financial market, thereby mitigating the problems associated with information asymmetry.
在当今快节奏的商业环境中,将可持续性纳入财务决策已成为变革的关键驱动力。随着利益相关者越来越多地要求企业提高透明度和问责制,监管机构已经介入,以确保可持续发展报告的标准化和健全。本文旨在建立可持续性信息披露规则与金融市场动态指标之间的关系。研究对象是世界上74个国家,分为发达国家和发展中国家。时间周期为2021年,股票市值指标为- 2020年,为可获得数据的最近几年。研究方法有正态性检验(Shapiro-Wilk检验和Shapiro-Francia检验)、比较方法(Student’s t检验和Mann-Whitney U检验、带虚拟变量的回归分析)、线性和非线性相关以及回归分析(对数、多项式)。研究结果证实,发达国家的可持续发展相关信息披露规则高于发展中国家。同时,在发达国家,这种需求的增长影响到股票价格波动、股票市值、外国直接投资和证券投资的增加。对发展中国家来说,股票市场资本化、证券投资和股票交易量也有所增加。认识到这些趋势可以使金融市场监管者和参与者都受益,从而鼓励形成透明和有效的金融市场,从而减轻与信息不对称相关的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Who prefers regular dividends? The effect of inventory level and firm operating efficiency on dividends in an emerging market 谁更喜欢定期分红?新兴市场中存货水平和企业经营效率对股利的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.15
Haibin Piao, Dachen Sheng
Stable regular dividends can deliver the steady operation of a firm’s performance to its investors. When firms experience lower operation efficiency and more negative performance, they can affect their cash burden and lower the regular dividends. According to the cash conversion cycle theory, quicker inventory turnover could benefit the firm, and it is a significant signal of efficiency and high performance. In the real business environment, the expectation of future production, logistics and inflation can all affect managers’ decisions. This paper uses data from all Chinese manufacturing companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2017 to 2020 as a sample. The paper provides the empirical causality between inventory turnover, operating efficiency indicators, and dividend distribution, by applying the regression method to find the causality relationship between inventory as the efficiency indicator and the distribution of dividends. The findings indicate that inventory consideration can be complicated and experience the inverse U-shape relationship with dividend decisions. Further, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have different considerations about operating efficiency. They prefer to pay stable regular dividends, even if they are under pressure on operating efficiency and suffer from large inventories. SOEs believe that following political guidance and meeting their social obligations is their prioritized mission.
稳定的定期股息可以为投资者带来公司业绩的稳定运行。当企业经营效率较低、负绩效较强时,会影响企业的现金负担,降低定期股息。根据现金转换周期理论,更快的库存周转率对企业有利,是企业效率和高绩效的重要标志。在真实的商业环境中,对未来生产、物流和通货膨胀的预期都会影响管理者的决策。本文以2017年至2020年在上海和深圳证券交易所上市的所有中国制造业公司的数据为样本。本文通过运用回归方法寻找作为效率指标的库存与股利分配之间的因果关系,给出了存货周转率、经营效率指标与股利分配之间的实证因果关系。研究结果表明,库存考虑可能是复杂的,并且与股息决策呈反u型关系。此外,国有企业对经营效率的考量也有所不同。他们宁愿支付稳定的定期股息,即使他们面临着运营效率的压力和大量库存。国有企业认为,听从政治引导、履行社会义务是企业的首要任务。
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引用次数: 0
Financial technology development: Implications for traditional banks in Africa 金融科技发展:对非洲传统银行的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.14
Daniel Meyer, Tochukwu Timothy Okoli
The speed of financial technology (Fintech) adoption in delivering financial services has raised concerns among researchers on the future of traditional banks, especially as authors believe that Fintech comes with both prospects and problems. This study therefore aims to examine the growth, measurements, and the impact of Fintech on traditional banks in a panel of sixteen African countries for the period 1800–2020. These periods were divided into three phases: the analogue (1800–1967), the digital (1967–2008), and the modern phases (2008–2020). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and descriptive analyses methods were used to investigate the study’s objectives. It found that the analogue era witnessed the birth of Fintech ideas, while the digital era witnessed structural changes within the financial system. Results from the pooled mean group ARDL estimation technique based on the third/modern era reveal that, on average, a unit increase in Fintech adoption significantly reduces bank profitability (ROA) by 12.6%. Hence, although early Fintech adoption poses no threat to bank profitability; however, beyond certain threshold, its continuous adoption reduces profitability. Again, the speed of adjustment at 90.9% per annum is an indication that short-run Fintech disruptive impact/disequilibrium is corrected within one year and one month. The Principal Component Analysis used to generate Fintech index shows that African Fintech’s operation is more susceptible to changes in mobile banking. The study concludes that too much Fintech adoption is unhealthy for traditional banks in Africa and therefore it recommends that Fintech should collaborate with banks to correct for its disruptive impacts.
金融科技(Fintech)在提供金融服务方面的应用速度引起了研究人员对传统银行未来的担忧,尤其是在作者认为金融科技既有前景也有问题的情况下。因此,本研究旨在研究1800-2020年期间16个非洲国家的金融科技对传统银行的增长、衡量和影响。这些时期分为三个阶段:模拟阶段(1800-1967),数字阶段(1967-2008)和现代阶段(2008-2020)。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和描述性分析方法来调查研究的目标。研究发现,模拟时代见证了金融科技理念的诞生,而数字时代见证了金融体系的结构性变化。基于第三/现代时代的汇总平均组ARDL估计技术的结果显示,平均而言,金融科技采用的单位增加显着降低了银行盈利能力(ROA) 12.6%。因此,尽管早期采用金融科技不会对银行的盈利能力构成威胁;然而,超过一定的阈值,它的持续采用降低了盈利能力。同样,每年90.9%的调整速度表明,短期金融科技破坏性影响/不均衡在一年零一个月内得到纠正。用于生成金融科技指数的主成分分析表明,非洲金融科技的运营更容易受到移动银行变化的影响。该研究的结论是,过度采用金融科技对非洲的传统银行来说是不健康的,因此它建议金融科技应该与银行合作,以纠正其破坏性影响。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic determinants of Jordan’s external debt in the period 1980–2022 using ARDL 使用ARDL分析1980-2022年期间约旦外债的宏观经济决定因素
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.13
A. Baniata, Ahmad Alnawasreh, Faten Nsairat
This paper addresses the macroeconomic determinants of Jordan’s external debt. The study aims at exploring the impact of foreign direct investment inflows on external debt service, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, government spending, and real exchange rate, on the external debt of Jordan from 1980 to 2022. The study utilizes the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound cointegration econometric model to establish long-run relationships between variables. The model also investigates short-run dynamics via an error correction model to give insight into how quickly the system returns to equilibrium following a shock. Statistical results demonstrate an inverse link between foreign direct investment and debt, where a 1% increase in investment reduces debt by 0.15311%. Similar patterns are seen with GDP and external debt, where a 1% GDP rise reduces debt by 0.4743%. Government spending shows a direct relationship, with a 1% increase causing a 1.02049% debt rise. Real exchange rate and inflation impact debt, with a 1% rise causing debt to increase by 0.067 and decrease by 0.00771 dollars, respectively, though these effects are relatively small. In the short run, the system adjusts to shocks with an error correction coefficient indicating a 24% correction to equilibrium each period.
本文论述了约旦外债的宏观经济决定因素。本研究旨在探讨1980年至2022年外国直接投资流入对约旦外债还本付息、国内生产总值(GDP)、通货膨胀、政府支出和实际汇率的影响。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束协整计量模型建立变量之间的长期关系。该模型还通过误差修正模型研究了短期动力学,以深入了解系统在冲击后恢复平衡的速度。统计结果表明,外国直接投资与债务之间存在反比关系,投资每增加1%,债务就会减少0.15311%。GDP和外债也出现了类似的模式,GDP每增长1%,债务就会减少0.473%。政府支出表现出直接关系,增加1%导致债务增加1.02049%。实际汇率和通货膨胀影响债务,1%的上升导致债务分别增加0.067美元和减少0.00771美元,尽管这些影响相对较小。在短期内,系统对冲击进行调整,误差修正系数表明每个周期对平衡有24%的修正。
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引用次数: 0
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Investment Management and Financial Innovations
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